SLV trade ideas
SLV - Oct 18SLV was for quite sometime was following a steady uptrend until broke out. It has now reverted back to exactly where it was 2 weeks ago.
I'm expecting it to trade sideways within the narrow uptrend range, fake a breakout and then fail as the MACD cross under suggests massive downside.
I'll be watching:
- OTM Long 15 Put Oct 18
- ITM Long 17 Put Oct 18
- Short Iron Fly 18/16/14
Breakout on SLV to continueNext trading day will tell. Looking for AMEX:SLV to touch on the SMA50 for support. That would be a buy signal for me, then I would monitor for it not to go lower than 5% down from entry and 20% up. 5%_down is an instant sell. Depending on market feel at 20%_up it may warrant carrying a partial set of stock over with an fresh exit bracket.
My take on SLV Would love any feedback, I am still learning!
Reasons I am bearish in the short-term:
- The meteoric rise of Silver and SLV prices has had no time to develop strong support or resistance
- Bearish Volume is increasing, both in raw vol but also in its reaction to bulls trying to recover
- MACD is not looking healthy for hourly and the daily looks like it is going to converge soon - Bearish signal
- Massive shooting star on the weekly chart
- Hourly Stoch says oversold, but daily says overbought
- Hourly MA(9,20,50) all looking not so great as the short term (MA9) has completely crossed the 20 and 50
- Forex Silver to USD (XAGUSD) is also barely holding support, and looks like it is starting to downtrend
Reasons I am bullish:
- Volatility is insane, so who knows
Just some ideas, please leave a comment and let me know what YOU think! :)
Possible Wave 4 startingCould be that we have just completed a wave 5 finishing off a wave 3. The current downturn may be signalling the beginning of Wave 4.
The last correction, wave 2, lasted approximately 3 months. Sometimes wave 4s can last a long time and display many different formations. The eventual Wave 5 should challenge the last major high, just under $20. I'm projecting that it will overshoot, going to a gap above $25 and then testing the breakout area ($20).
I will be watching price on Monday or Tuesday to rally and test Wednesday's high. Given the current strength in the recent move, I expect price to break through to higher highs. But a failure to make new highs may confirm that Wave 4 is beginning.
Silver Imminent Breakout Years in the MakingSilver is at an imminent breakout zone years in the making. This likely might just be the trade of the year is not the last few years. The equilibrium is getting very tight with SLV making it's first weekly higher low since December 2017.
Furthermore the macro fundamentals are very bullish for precious metals. The Feds also recently reverse course on rate hikes and expectations are now rate cuts. And as crazy as it sounds, this is all on the back of strong economic numbers. With the looming potential of further escalation of trade wars and heighten political instability; it seems easy monetary policy is almost certainty. And the icing on the cake is that Silver to Gold is near all time lows. As long as bullish momentum continues, there'll come a time where silver is going to slingshot and play catch up with go and it may happen quite soon.
What the hell just happened to SLVI said silver (SLV) was going to rise but it honestly has shocked even me. Lately it had the momentum of a runaway train and even started going exponential with several gaps up it now has to fill, but when it blew past the second blue top line (a long term overhead resistance going back to 2015 if you can believe it) I was truly shocked. I sold a lot of positions in anticipiation of a pullback just over 16.00 but the resistance of the large channel we identified several weeks ago has been an excellent guide. Today there was a monumental pullback. After first rising over a 1% for the day it was down 0.7% at the time of writing.
The other sign that a large pullback is due are the COT reports which show the largest institutional short position since January of this year in precious metals. My patience for a large pull back has finally come. At the very least it needs to come back to the top blue line, but based on the size and breadth of the upward channel it could easily pull back even further. We will watch key support areas but at the close of today a short position was entered in the precious metals/miners market (please refer to GDXJ which failed to make a higher high and has already breached the upward channel).
SLV Double Bottom ProjectionsSLV is exploding up in past days. A longer-term view shows the massive 2015-2018 double bottom. To confirm the double bottom, SLV will need to break above 19.82. There's a gap above the 25 level, a likely target. A successful test of the breakout level will likely be the launching pad for much higher prices.