SLV trade ideas
SLV Support TestHolding 14.69 today (Wednesday's close) may lead to an explosive breakout in the next two weeks
Silver : Negative Interest Rates, QE4, End of PetrodollarAll long-looking indicators point to silver being undervalued vs gold . Top chart shows silver candlesticks vs gold red line as percentage returns since 2006 in the case of these investment trusts. Middle indicator is the Trader's Dynamic Index ( TDI ) which holds a combination of moving average, volatility and momentum trends. Bottom indicator is the infamous Gold:Silver ratio.
Silver is sitting on top of the .382 fib level support shown in the chart, which is where the current cost of production resides around $14.75/oz. Low risk, high reward - this is a perfect setup for those interested in making an inflation play going toward negative rates, QE4 and the end of the petrodollar agreement.
% Returns Analysis: Silver below Gold -> Silver undervalued
Fibonacci Level: Strong support at cost of production near $14.75/oz
TDI: Bullish divergence in formation
Gold/Silver ratio: 83:1 -> Silver undervalued
Note: SLV is not equivalent to owning physical silver. Trade SLV at the risk of fund insolvency and loss of investment - most holdings are suggested to be physical.
Silver to $5.00/oz by Dec 2020 - let's hope so!!!Monthly Model suggests major low in precious metals is years away - Dec 2020
brschultz / markettimer777
SLV Resistance Right Where We ExpectedThe Fed''s decision to "pause" rate hikes justified the current levels for silver. That may have marked a short term top (SELL THE NEWS) as price touched the top of the lower sloping channel. The monthly chart shows that the recent monthly test of the closing low failed. While prices rallied despite closing lower in November (testing the August closing low), I am expecting another stab at that November closing low. A close above that level at the end of Feb signals a successful test of the low and a good chance for higher prices. A gap up above the channel line changes everything!
SLV and the Powell PutWill the Fed's pause (ending) of rate increases boost SLV above 15.50? Good spot to buy puts, just in case.
SLV rejects to 500 Double Hull : Target $13.75Each Time SLV collapses... it falls back to at least 500 Double Hull
SLV Daily Price vs 340 Day SMA...Rejected like me in High SchoolSLV has been rejected by the 340 Day SMA almost as many times as me in high school by the ladies.
brschultz
SLV Island BottomPer Bulkowski:
Important Bull Market Results for Island Reversals
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): Not ranked
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 31%; 32%
Average rise/decline: 32%; 13%
Throwback/pullback rate: 54%; 55%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 79%; 60%
32% up would get us close to 20
SLV Breakout? or Fakeout?Fast move to top of current range. Stochastics turning up and the parabolic indicator implies the start of a move higher. For Elliott Wave,, could be a wave 5 of 3 of 1. Any EW experts here? If follow through on heavy volume comes in, some gaps above 15 and 16 need to be filled
SLV oversold and retesting previous supportstoch big time oversold, price broke above previous support, now re-testing
long for me with a stop at 14.20
How the FED Will Pump SilverHistorically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it breaks once more.
It is practically certain that going into this next recession, the FED will once more lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Yet each time they do this, they must start by filling the "bad debt black hole" in order to prevent a complete breakdown in confidence. The black hole grows proportionally to debt, and considering there is more debt now than there ever has been in history, the initial round of QE required this go around must be unprecedented in scale.
QE and suppressed interest rates are what caused commodity prices to take off in 2009, notably gold, silver and oil. We can expect the same result this go around. Once the FED is forced to lower interest rates close to or below 0%, there will be no floor on inflation. That point in time will be the perfect setup for silver to shine.
When will it happen? It could take another year or so before we see a FED response to a market suffering from debt withdrawals. SLV calls are particularly attractive in such a scenario, as they offer superior leverage for limited risk. Assuming SLV went from $15 to $60 within two years (well within reason), SLV calls offer reward:risk of up to 70:1. Best positioning may be found after a drastic FFR rate cut.
Side note: Largest physical holding of silver, and manager of the SLV fund, just so happens to be JPM. JPM also *coincidentally* held the largest net short position in silver on the futures exchange not long ago (cash deliverable only).
SILVER VS BTC BUBBLE ANALOGIn our BTC vs SLV analog piece we identified remarkable similarities within the charts. Trying to figure out the time frame of the consolidation area is key. In SLV, the timing of that consolidation period was over 3 months, however, the 500% rally also took 2.5 years. In BTC, the 500% rally only took ~9 months. With this scaling in mind, the consolidation period in BTC may be closer to ~1 month than 3. Any clues as to WHEN the next move occurs is critical when it comes to trading BTC Derivates, because in options, timing is everything!
In the first week of December, we had compared the two charts stating that BTC was in a consolidation period that, if correlated on the same time scale as the SLV bubble, would break the interim lows of ~$3,200 between 1-3 months. We believe this thesis still remains intact which could mean seeing a break of the lows in the coming weeks. A 25% selloff in BTC from the current lows of $3,200 would be to roughly $2,400. If this occurs, we believe new institutional players will enter this space to start reallocating their assets and resources into Cryptocurrencies. Since BTC has first-mover advantage and name recognition, we think this would be the coin that "Wall Street" uses as an avenue to invest in to get digital asset exposure.
Over a month ago, we came out with an analog piece comparing the Silver bubble of 2011 to the most recent bubble of BTC. In the first week of December, we had compared the two charts stating that BTC was in a consolidation period that, if correlated on the same time scale as the SLV bubble, would break the interim lows of ~$3,200 between 1-3 months.
We believe this thesis still remains intact which could mean seeing a break of the lows in the coming weeks. A 25% selloff in BTC from the current lows of $3,200 would be to roughly $2,400. If this occurs, we believe new institutional players will enter this space to start reallocating their assets and resources into Cryptocurrencies. Since BTC has first-mover advantage and name recognition, we think this would be the coin that "Wall Street" uses as an avenue to invest in to get digital asset exposure.
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Dr. Ilya Kurland
Chief Derivatives Strategist
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Silver ($SLV) tests resistance for 1st timeSilver has been in a bear market for 8 years. It will very likely not break through this strong resistance order block on first try. $14.00 level will provide a nice take profit opportunity or long entry.
SLV Approaches Breakout LevelMomentum in SLV appears to be very strong but heavy resistance lies ahead. Can SLV break through the 16 level? If so, upside may reach $50+ .
What Happens if Silver Can't Break Out?Successful resistance at 16 could lead to a 50% drop from current levels.
Time to long silver?Silver has had a pretty rough time since April 2011. Looking at a monthly chart, we're starting to see it poke it's head up. The vortex indicator is in a position that shows we may have hit a bottom. MACD is curling to the upside as well. Break of the red trendline to the upside (candle close) with an uptick in volume will be the confirmation for this trade. This could be a solid long-term play in the coming months/years.
