Incoming Death Cross? Is a Death Cross Looming for SPLG? Here's What the Chart (and the Economy) Are Telling Us
The technical clouds are gathering over SPLG.
A new **Death Cross** — when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average — appears imminent on the daily chart of SPLG, a popular low-cost S&P 500 ETF. This ominous signal historically marks bearish sentiment and trend reversals, especially when coupled with macro headwinds.
Let’s unpack what’s on the horizon, and why this technical setup deserves attention.
What the Chart Says
- The **last Death Cross** on SPLG occurred in early 2022, followed by months of weakness.
- A **Golden Cross** in mid-2023 launched a strong rally, fueled by soft-landing optimism and strong tech earnings.
- Now, the **moving averages are converging again**, with price slicing through both SMAs.
Volume has picked up, and momentum oscillators are struggling to regain bullish footing. The Stochastic is indecisive, and CM_Williams_Vix_Fix shows recent spikes — a sign that fear is creeping back into the market.
🏦 Recent Economic Data: Warning Signs?
The macro backdrop is not helping. Here’s why:
- **CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected** for March, pushing back the market’s timeline for rate cuts.
- **Retail sales surprised to the upside**, suggesting the consumer is still resilient — but that could also mean more inflationary pressure.
- The **labor market remains tight**, with unemployment below 4%, limiting the Fed’s flexibility.
Bottom line: the Fed is stuck. Markets that had priced in multiple rate cuts are now bracing for **"higher for longer"** — a toxic cocktail for growth-sensitive equities like those in SPLG.
Global Trade Tensions Resurface
As if inflation and rates weren’t enough, the White House just slapped **new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries**, reigniting trade war fears.
This could:
- Increase input costs for U.S. manufacturers
- Add further upward pressure to inflation
- Trigger retaliation from China
Historically, rising tariffs have had a chilling effect on global equity markets, particularly large-cap exporters that dominate the S&P 500.
So, What’s the Play?
With technical signals flashing red and macro conditions deteriorating, it might be time to:
1. **Reduce exposure** to large-cap ETFs like SPLG until the Death Cross plays out
2. **Rotate into defensive sectors** (think utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare)
3. **Consider short-term hedges** if you're fully allocated
4. **Watch key levels** – a break below MXN$1,200 in SPLG could open the door to a deeper correction
Final Word
This isn’t a panic call — it’s a call for preparation.
Death Crosses don’t always lead to crashes, but when they align with fundamental deterioration and rising geopolitical risks, they can signal a trend change worth respecting.
Let the chart be your map, but keep one eye on the macro compass.
Stay sharp, trade smart.
SPLG trade ideas
Analyzing the Recent Performance of SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (The weekly chart of the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG) provides insights into its performance and key technical levels. Here’s a detailed interpretation of the chart:
Historical Downturns and Recoveries:
SPLG experienced a significant downturn from late 2021 to mid-2022, dropping by approximately 27.67% over 1564 days, a notable bearish phase.
Following this, there was another downturn in mid-2022, with a decline of 11.18% over 606 days.
More recently, from late 2023, SPLG faced a minor pullback of 5.84% over 360 days before resuming its upward trajectory.
Current Bullish Momentum:
The ETF has shown a strong recovery, with the price currently above the 9-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 63.04 USD, indicating a bullish trend.
The price has recently broken through key resistance levels, and the current level of 64.68 USD suggests strong buying interest.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
The 62.73 USD level, which coincides with the 9-week SMA, now acts as a significant support level.
The recent high of 64.74 USD is a critical resistance level that, if broken, could lead to further bullish momentum.
RSI Analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74.44, indicating that SPLG is currently in overbought territory. This could signal a potential pullback or consolidation period.
The RSI has been trending upwards, reflecting the strong momentum in SPLG’s price movement.
Summary
The SPLG has demonstrated strong resilience, recovering from significant downturns to reach new highs in 2024. The current bullish trend is supported by strong price action above the 9-week SMA and positive RSI momentum. However, with the RSI in overbought territory, caution is warranted for potential short-term corrections. Key levels to monitor include the support at 62.73 USD and the resistance at 64.74 USD.
Investment Insights:
Bullish Perspective: As long as SPLG maintains its position above the 9-week SMA, it remains in a strong uptrend, suggesting favorable conditions for long positions.
Bearish Perspective: Given the RSI indicating overbought conditions, traders should be alert for signs of a reversal or consolidation, especially if the price fails to break through the recent highs.
Stay tuned for more updates and analysis on SPLG and other major indices!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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The "Mini-SPY" You Might Not Know About - SPLG!SPLG can be considered a miniature version of the infamous SPY ETF; albeit a few minor differences in structure and some other additional factors (available in the SPLG prospectus).1 However, these differences are not very relevant to long-term investors or short-term traders looking to make a strategic move in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). According to ETF Trends “SPLG is a cheaper, modernized S&P 500 alternative to the flagship SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).”2
SPLG has an expense ratio of 0.03% (compared to 0.09% for SPY).
Analysts ratings for SPLG:
FactSet: A/95
Morningstar: 5 stars
XTF: 9.8/10.0
Additional information about SPLG can be found in the SSGA factsheet.3
1. www.ssga.com
2. www.etftrends.com
3. www.ssga.com