SPXL - Not normal at all!-As we all know, COVID-19 was a hard period of time full of uncertainties. While many of us were scared that the market will maintain a bearish run for a good amount of time and that the effect of the Pandemic will show its negative effects throughout the years as the economists predicted too, the Market showed us a totally different scenario. Both the SP500 and Nasdaq had a tremendous rise during the pandemic and the market was nothing but all green and positive. For the beginner investors who started investment with the help of social media and some research added on the positivity and for a period of time, it felt like no matter where you put your money it turned green in the next couple of days! But here we are, the harsh reality time has come. Now it is the time for the bubble to pop and for the stocks to go back to the normal way of performance rather than having an "Always Rising" state.
-Okay yeah the market is a bubble but so what? Can't it be the new normal? Why do we think that things are going to go bad soon?
Because of the following facts dear ladies and gentlemen!
Fact # 1: The well-known Buffet Indicator shows us the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". Currently, the ratio has passed the levels of "over-valued" and it has officially entered the "Strongly over-valued" levels. We are currently standing at the levels of the popular Internet Bubble. While the Internet Bubble popped at +67% the current level of the indicator is standing at +88%. It is a brainer, we are rising at a very abnormal speed, and the state of the economy is not that positive.
Fact # 2: Level of Corporate Debt. According to the research that the popular McKinsey has done, the Global debt has grown from $97 trillion to $169 trillion since the crisis but has been stable relative to world GDP. It is bad.
Fact # 3: Levels of money printing are at their highest highs. At this point, FED can either keep printing to sustain the green state of the market, or at a point if they stop printing (cancellation of stimulus paychecks, unemployment paychecks, COVID affected interest-free small-business loans) then things will definitely fall apart.
