Turtle Trader IndicatorSo apparently Trading View has now removed the ability to publish indicators as a free users.
So unfortunately I cannot publish this anymore.
This is a prototype indicator I wrote after finishing the book, "The Complete Turtle Traders".
I plan to update modify this with my own TVMV framework and talk about other rules for trading as opposed to simply copying the old school turtles because the economic conditions today are simply very different than they used to be. I did backtest this and I wasn't terribly impressed. It wasn't horrible or anything, it just didn't fit my personal style.
For context, Turtle Trading Indicator is designed to implement the Turtle Trading strategy, a systematic approach developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s. This strategy is known for its trend-following methods, using price breakouts and volatility to manage trades. The indicator plots visual signals for entries, exits, and position additions, making it easier for traders to follow the rules manually on their charts.
How It Works
Entry and Exit Signals: It uses breakouts above X-day highs or below X-day lows for entries, with exits based on Y-day highs or lows. Users can choose between System One (20-day breakout, 10-day exit) or System Two (55-day breakout, 20-day exit).
Volatility-Based Position Sizing: The indicator calculates position sizes using the Average True Range (ATR), ensuring risk is proportional to account capital, typically 1-2% per trade.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels are set at 2N (twice the ATR) from the entry price to limit losses.
Pyramiding: It signals when to add to winning positions as the price moves favorably by 0.5N, helping to capitalize on trends.
How to Use It
To use the indicator:
Attach it to your chart on TradingView.
Look for entry signals (green triangles for long, red for short) to initiate trades.
Use the displayed position size for entries or additions, adjusting for your instrument if needed (e.g., stocks, futures).
Monitor for pyramid signals (lime or orange triangles) to add to positions.
Exit when exit signals appear (blue triangles), and always respect the plotted stop-loss levels.
Hope you enjoy and if you wanna see more indicators like this, consider following and giving this a boost. If it reaches 100 boosts, I'll update it or publish the strategy version otherwise I'm just gonna keep any updates in house.
SPXS trade ideas
Looks like time to take some profits!
This spy chart is looking a little bearish! Breaking out of that descending triangle! Correction is imminent and coming soon! I think we should buy some protection for our portfolio! I’m looking at the SPYS to buy after Santa rally next week or sooner. Just insurance wise.
Looks like time to take some profits!
This spy chart is looking a little bearish! Breaking out of that descending triangle! Correction is imminent and coming soon! I think we should buy some protection for our portfolio! I’m looking at the SPYS to buy after Santa rally next week or sooner. Just insurance wise.
SPXS- Bear is the new Bull?**Disclaimer**: This analysis provides an overview of the historical performance of SPXS and highlights potential trading strategies based on observed patterns and volatility. However, this is not financial advice, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders should consider broader market conditions and any upcoming economic events when making decisions.
### Technicals
- Seasonality
- RSI Support & Resistance
### **Bearish Seasonality in August and September**
August and September have historically been bearish months for the broader market, which tends to be bullish for SPXS, given that it is an inverse ETF of the S&P 500. This inverse relationship provides opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on negative market sentiment during this period.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings on **September 17-18** and **September 19-20** may significantly impact market movements. The chart currently shows a **double bottom** pattern, a bullish reversal signal, which could indicate further upside potential for SPXS if confirmed by the market’s reaction to the Fed's decisions. Though it is likely that they will lower rates, which is bullish for the market, and bearish for SPXS.
---
### **Key Statistics for August and September**
- **Returns**: SPXS tends to perform well during market downturns, particularly in August and September, as volatility spikes. The maximum percentage increase in these months has reached substantial levels.
- **Max % Up**: Historically, SPXS has seen maximum gains of **up to ~30% in September**, making it an attractive vehicle for traders expecting bearish trends in the broader market.
- **Volatility**: SPXS’s volatility remains elevated in August and September, allowing for significant swings in both directions. Traders should be cautious but could benefit from these sharp movements, especially when combined with proper risk management.
---
### **Probability of a Breakout**
The chart displays a clear **double bottom pattern**, a common bullish reversal indicator. The probability of a breakout depends on multiple factors, including broader market sentiment, technical resistance levels, and upcoming economic news such as the Federal Reserve’s meetings.
Historically, double bottom patterns have a success rate of around **70%**, meaning that when the price breaks above the resistance level, there is a strong chance of an upward move. Given the market conditions, the bearish seasonality of August and September further supports the potential for a bullish breakout in SPXS.
---
### **Setting Stop Losses**
Risk management is crucial when trading SPXS due to its volatility and leveraged nature. Here are some ways to set effective stop losses:
1. **Tighter Stop Loss**:
- For more conservative traders, place a stop loss just below **$7.297**, which is the pivot level. This may reduce risk but could also lead to getting stopped out in case of minor volatility.
3. **ATR-Based Stop Loss**:
- Using the **Average True Range (ATR)** as a volatility-based indicator, you could set a dynamic stop loss. If the ATR is **0.50**, for example, place your stop **0.50 to 1.0 points** below the breakout level.
---
### **Risk Management: Kelly Criterion**
Given that the average return in September is **2.23%** and the positive probability (Pos%) is **47%**, managing risk with a structured approach is essential. The **Kelly Criterion** helps determine the optimal position size based on probabilities and expected returns, balancing growth while minimizing risk.
The **Kelly Criterion formula** is:
\
Where:
- \( f^* \) is the fraction of capital to allocate to the trade.
- \( b \) is the odds of winning, which can be estimated by the average return (2.23% or 0.0223).
- \( p \) is the probability of winning (47% or 0.47).
- \( q \) is the probability of losing (1 - p = 0.53).
**Applying the Kelly Criterion**:
1. Estimate the odds of winning: In this case, the average return for September is 2.23%, so:
\
2. Winning probability:
\
3. Losing probability:
\
Now, applying the Kelly formula:
\
Since the result is negative, the Kelly Criterion suggests **not placing a trade** in this scenario, as the negative expectation would not justify the risk. However, many traders use a **fraction of the Kelly Criterion** to limit exposure to volatility. A **half-Kelly** strategy, for example, would mean investing around **2-5%** of capital, adjusting for risk tolerance.
---
### **Conclusion**
For those looking to take advantage of bearish trends in the broader market, August and September have historically provided favorable conditions for SPXS. The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings may act as key catalysts for further upside, particularly if the market reacts negatively to any interest rate decisions, potentially confirming the double bottom pattern.
However, given the high volatility associated with this period, it is critical to manage risk carefully and stay updated on macroeconomic developments.
Bullish IdeaI feel this is a good play because I believe the market ( AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX ) to be in a correction phase of up to around 10% from its most recent weekly peak. I like the idea of AMEX:SPXS bear shares, not only because it behaves the opposite of SP:SPX , but because it's triple leveraged and you can buy for cheap!
From a technical viewpoint I see the following:
Broke above a Falling Wedge Patter (Bullish)
Then consolidated
Formed a double bottom
Cup & Handle pattern on lower timeframe
Price is coming back up on 3 consecutive green weekly candles
It's breaking out above its most recent peak to the left (watch for a retest)
All while Volume is building, showing institutional support behind the move
RSI & MACD indicators confirm the move
MACD shows a recent bullish crossover and rising histogram
RSI is trending up with more room to rise
Important: This is strictly what I feel will happen. It's "not" an entry point. Further analysis is required for a proper entry. Watch for a pullback / retest.
Disclaimer: This is strictly an opinion and in no way is financial advice. There is no such thing as a 100% for sure guaranteed thing. Market conditions can change, there could be news as a catalyst, and strategies don't always work. This idea is merely to engage with the TradingView community. Ideas & comments are always welcome! Lets keep it fun & friendly. =)
Happy Trading!
Bear Flag APEX TradeIf you follow my charts, you know I have targets for 4750 & 4900 for sp500 futures all have been confirmed w/ the AD showing Ascending Triangles to those targets. And the AD has also confirmed $475 & $493 for AMEX:SPY etf. I encourage bullish traders to bull all dips.
Another Tale is the Bear Flag Trade in AMEX:SPXS that has been repeating for quite sometime. Here is another clear Bear Flag set up w/ an Apex Trade.
sp500 3x bear waterfall if closes below 14.80the 3x bear etf , has a bearish waterfall set up w/ a close below $14.80.. Thats 10 cents from current price action of 14.90, think about that for a second.. sp500 goes parabolic if the bears gives this up . If you're bullish, you want to see this capitulate
stalking a position near $16, AD showing bullish cypher on weeklthe AD is showing a bullish cypher set up on the weekly chart of spxs, however we're not at the apex of the triangle yet (bottom chart) we're close... this week we have Fed chairman speaking and few other key speakers... could be the right opportunity im waiting for . I also dont mine DCA into a position since this has been beaten down pretty badly already...
SPXS - There be no Bears here - only BullsThere be no bears here - only bulls!
TIP: Using a stochastic with settings of 5 for %K and 5 for %D you can get an idea when prices are bowing into the dance.
When bears become dominate, inverse ETFs become profitable.
SPXS:
Entry (Stop-Limit) - 20.45
Stop Loss - 18.85
First target - 21.36 (+4.6%)
Anticipated target - 23.57 (+15.27)
Head and Shoulders Bottom | 14% move possibleDirexion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares forms bullish "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern
"Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares (SPXS:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $18.31 to the range of $20.50 - $21.00. The pattern formed over 20 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: The price seems to have reached the end of a period of "accumulation" at the bottom of a major downtrend; the break up through resistance signals a reversal to a new uptrend.
The Head and Shoulders Bottom is created by three successive declines in the price following a significant downtrend. The lowest low (head) is in the middle, flanked by two higher lows (shoulders) at roughly the same level. Volume is highest as the price makes the first two declines, then diminishes through the right shoulder. Finally volume surges as the price closes above the neckline (drawn between the two highs) to confirm the reversal.
Inverse SPX ETFs could be set to fly! Mean reversion is quite the thing, and these have moved a very long way.
The stability of these downtrends broke in 2018, alongside the stability in the SPX uptrend. We've had a big blow off drop and these types of things make people forget obvious warning signs - but this has been flashing up warning signs for a while and they may soon become actionable.
To the moon.