SPY: Last week of January Haha excuse the rant! Lot of trauma based on the events today and the market status.
But these are my own thoughts and opinions and analysis.
Safe trades everyone!
SPY trade ideas
Spy Road To $615 Its hereIts Here! If You having been following me, we are about to hit our target this week before 1/24/25 , a lot of my followers are going to make a lot of money this week following my Spy & Stock predictions! When we hit our price target this week, I will Update Accordingly to cautiously evaluate our market conditions Bear / Bull / Blow Off Top. But in the meantime you must have exposure to stocks that can with stand a Bull or Bear Market Moving Forward Content Out Now, on what to do!
As Always Safe Trades JoeWtrades
$SPY January 23, 2025AMEX:SPY January 23, 2025
15 Minutes
The consecutive gap ups cannot sustain.
A pull back is required around 598-602 levels over the next 3 trading days for the moving average to converge.
I will have a contra setup to short 607-607 levels for 602 levels for the moment.
Usually in 15 minutes chart a difference over 15$ between 200 and 9.21 average results in sideways or a pull back.
Spy - Path to 666Hello Traders,
At 2008 bottom the market hit 666 on the SPX. So now I am thinking 6666 on the SPX and 666 on SPY is like a magnet. Well I used the Fractal from end of last year and using fibs to make sure the levels were a match and guess what..It ends close to 666 in April this year. I have other things pointing me to April as a "top". So anyways lets see how this plays out.. According to the fractal we will go up till Wednesday (MAG Earnings and Fed Decision) then have a small drop before continuing higher.
Is 666 the final top? Well one one hand it would make sense as we are getting long in the tooth and for some reason they love that number. On the other hand I have cycles that are pointing to one more cycle later this year into summer.
But I would say if we do head up to that number I would be cautious around there and put more into cash incase we get a decent pullback so you can buy things when they get cheaper.
I was one of the few calling for more up when everyone was seeing a Head and Shoulder and saying we topped in December. I knew we had a least one more bull cycle if not two. Here we are at ATH again .. lets see how this plays out.
SPY Analysis: Testing All-Time Highs with Weakening Momentum Testing / Surpassed ATH
MACD 4 HR Crossing down at red arrow.
RSI 4 HR Crossing down from overbought
1 HR MFI dropping
1 HR RSI dropping down.
MACD No signal.
30 Minute MACD looks to be losing momentum downward possible reversal back towards the upside
30 Minute RSI at 50 no potential for upside or downside this is nuetral.
30 minute MFI is still high but not overbought could be a downward from.
15 Minute MACD Crossing up could signal a move upward
15 Minute RSI was close to oversold and is now pushing up.
15 Minute MFI was close to oversold now pushing back up
5 Minute 50/100 EMA: 50 EMA crossing into 100 EMA could be signaling a short but
price has bounced on it a few times now.
Despite the short-term signs of a bounce (15-minute and 5-minute signals), the broader timeframes point to weakening momentum and a lack of sustained buying pressure. The 4-hour MACD and RSI both turning downward from overbought conditions align with a potential reversal. As SPY fails to gain further traction above the ATH, it could start to roll over, targeting lower levels.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $590 aligns with a key support zone, making it a logical target for a pullback. Additionally, any increase in volatility (VIX) or further weakness in momentum indicators would likely accelerate the move toward this level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: The ATH and current price zone (~607–610).
Support: The $600 psychological level and $590 Fibonacci retracement.
I’ll be monitoring the price action closely for confirmation of this bearish thesis. If SPY loses the short-term EMAs and momentum fails to recover, a move to $590 becomes increasingly likely. Let me know your thoughts.
As Goes January So Goes the YearI have written and talked about this statistical superstition born out of trading almanacs of the "January Effect" which proposes that the month of January's direction (a green bar or a red bar) will determine the final close of the year as a whole. I plugged the data into a spreadsheet this year mid-January to get the updated statistic and for the last 97 years this adage has held true 68% of the time. Like all statistics when studying markets "nothing is 100%" but it is safe to say "more often than not" this is true.
The January 2025 Monthly open is -3.03% from the Friday close... SPY is going to open -2.19% as of writing this morning. We still have a whole week of trading days left in January to see how 2025 will MOST PROBABLY play out.
There's a lot of "reasons" talk this morning about some Chinese AI being the culprit of the selloff. I never take heed of the need for the media to publish digestible stories to give such reasons: they are never tradable prior to the event they claim and each is a one-off so knowing the "reason" (if even true) is totally worthless for making money.
The more logical answer according to price which is far more actionable to traders is the failed breakout last Friday. While SPY made a new All Time High the Weekly itself failed to close to confirm it. Not following through on such a move is a clear bearish signal going into a weekend. Now THAT is a much better "reason" to be focused on this week (and every time it happens in the future).
$SPY January 28, 2025AMEX:SPY January 28, 2025
15 Minutes
The divergence paid off again.
Now we again wait for moving averages 9 and 21 to go above 50,100 and 200 to initiate any longs.
For the fall 608.15 to 594.64 61.8% retracement is around 602-603 levels.
A good level to short SL 605.5.
I expect sideways today.
Spy Road To $615You bet we are in this lol!!! What you thought is was that quick..... I don't think so, i will be updating accordingly, will Chinas A.I. destroy ours or is it hype we will see but in the meantime lets go bulls, Good Luck Traders and safe Trades
Where's The Top?Good evening traders,
If you're anything like me, you've probably been asking yourself for a few days now when SPY will top out? So here is my technical analysis with a breakdown of my thoughts and predictions for the next few upcoming weeks.
First and foremost, Trump took office on Jan 20th. The "Trump Pump" is alive and well, obviously. I'm starting to think the market was being retrained from a breakout under the Biden Administration, though we saw over a 25% return YTD.
Side note: This year is projected to do 3% on the S&P 500.
With that said, it is the S&P 500. The 500 largest companies in the United States. As Tech and AI take flight into 2025, it can only be assumed that large companies that make up the S&P 500 would be adopting these new resources in order to help them turn profits.
What does this mean for retail traders?
To put it simply, the trend is your friend, until it's not. These index funds, such as SPY have consumed bears for almost a consecutive 10 days, following a parallel channel towards a high target/trend line around the area of 623-626.
Until this channel of mayhem is broken, SPY is bullish. This is no man's land and we could change direction at any given moment. The lines of resistance are as follows: .. .. .. ..
Thanks for reading,
Spy Pullback last week of JanSpice recently tested its previous high, but the volume appears too weak to sustain the level. A pullback to at least 585 seems likely in the last week of January 2025. If 585 fails to hold, the next support level is around 575.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 1-30 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will attempt a minor rally in early trading, possibly targeting the 605 resistance level, then shift/rollover into a downward price trend (the TOP pattern) and being to move downward into the pre-DeepV low levels I've suggests (possibly near 585-588).
At that point, I suspect we'll get a few days of consolidation before we see the DeepV breakdown take place near Feb 11-13 (which may actually start on Friday the previous week).
Overall, I'm expecting the markets to roll into downward trending over the next 7 to 10+ days.
Gold and Silver are moving higher - which is great to see (finally). Maybe all Gold needed was to roll to the newer contract to finally break above the $2820 level. lol
Who knows.
This is the start of the BIG RALLY (Expansion Phase) in metals that should last almost all year. If my research is correct, Gold and Silver will reach a peak level near July-October 2025.
Bitcoin has moved into an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern that may prompt a rally up to resistance near $108,450.
At this point, the inverted EPP pattern is in the consolidation phase and I'm watching for it to break above $105,500 (moving to the ultimate high), or below $100,270 (as an invalidation breakdown move).
The next 5+ trading days should be very interesting for everyone.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersAll right today is the day after FOMC and some big earnings and because we had big earnings yesterday we have a pretty wide trading range today so just because we are options are we could have a more volatile day
The expected move on today’s contract is between 596 and 608. We did close underneath 35EMA and we have a red signal line.
If we get about the 35 EMA today which future so far are taking us above, we do have a down gap from yesterday and then a down gap from Monday that we haven’t completely filled yet. We also have an up gap from last Wednesday and they do overlap. It’s a little bit hard to see but right around 603 is the overlap .
To the downside, we have the 50 day moving average so far that has been our support this week. You could see on Monday. We did see that balance and underneath that the 30 minute two and removing average and the one hour 200 moving average those levels have been supporting us With some nice technical bounces
SPY approaching top of channel that started back on 2016SPY approaching top of channel and RSI declining during same time frame. I'm seeing that this will play out in late winter/early spring, so plenty of time to prepare. Once it does dip there is strong support on bottom of channel which will coincide with the 50 Month EMA.
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels and Targets for Today and Tomorrow603-610 is the implied move from options for today and we are just under ATH's and we have a red signal line
$SPY January 30, 2025AMEX:SPY January 30, 2025
15 Minutes.
We had AMEX:SPY between 604 and 599. But no trade as setup was difficult.
We have too many long bars inside the box.
Foe the fall 610.78 to 594.93 AMEX:SPY is between 599 and 605 which represents23.6% and 61.8% retracements.
So, sell is below 598 and buy above 606 only.
For the day for the fall 605.38 to 599.22 604.5 need to cross for a target 606-607 levels.
If the box breaks on either side, we should get a 4 to 5 $ move.
SPY Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 607.93
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 596.16
Recommended Stop Loss - 614.42
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Today & Tomorrow (FOMC)35EMA Underneath us, island gap above us, top of the expected move on the day is 610 above that all-time highs and 612 on tomorrow’s contract. If I was looking at bear call spreads I’d probably do 611 612. Bottom of the move on the day 599 and underneath all of that is that 50 day moving average with the 30 minute and one hour 200 Bearily positioned underneath that. Let’s go 🙌
Where we headed?! Spy looking to fill gap up? Or fall?Spy could retest Demand zone back at 588 range, soon as ga fills just be mindful of the rug pull down unless we breakout and test 610 and up to 613-615 range top of the channel and for a new ATH. Rock with me see where he headed!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-23-25 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests the markets will attempt to hold near recent support while attempting to determine trend. I view it as move of an indecisive day - looking to see if the markets can break to new all-time highs or if the markets have reached the top I've been discussing.
In my opinion, today will be a pause/consolidation day in the SPY/QQQ - leading to the big CRUSH pattern tomorrow.
Gold and Silver are under quite a bit of pressure this morning. The metals pattern is a BOTTOM pattern. So, I expect this selling in metals to be reflective of issues that will drive the SPY/QQQ downward tomorrow (the CRUSH pattern) and likely result in a moderate downward trend in the SPY/QQQ over the next 2 weeks.
Metals will recover and try to move higher as metals continues to hedge against global risks.
BTCUSD is moving downward - trying to break below the Flag Support level of the EPP pattern.
I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day for the markets and today will be a fairly consolidated day overall.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Looking LIke DOWN SIDE Based on price action and market structure. Look to get down around 603 before looking long. unless we see a bullish FVG above recent High
$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630AMEX:SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern.
From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region.
I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545.
If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.
Why Blind Index Investing Could Be Costing You Thousands?!Index-based investing has been one of the most popular ways to grow a long-term portfolio for decades. Today, it has become even more accessible and favored, offering a safer foundation for investing and generally carrying lower risk compared to portfolios composed of individual stocks. For someone like me, a technical analyst, index investing isn't exactly an adrenaline rush. Under societal pressure, I decided to test a few hacks and dive deeper into it ;)
I set out to compare three of the most popular U.S. index ETFs – SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), and IWM (Russell 2000) – and analyze how to implement a brief technical analysis into index selection could influence long-term results. Starting in 2005, I "invested" $1,000 every quarter, completing a total of 81 test purchases. Each time, I selected the index that technical analysis suggested was in the strongest position.
If done strictly and consistently, there were often situations where all three indices had just reached their all-time highs. In those moments, I had to make a choice. Technical analysis is not just about drawing lines on a chart – experience, market intuition, and behavioral patterns of the price play a big role here.
My Test and Strategy
The goal was to compare the following three U.S. index ETFs:
- SPY (S&P 500)
- QQQ (Nasdaq 100)
- IWM (Russell 2000)
Test conditions:
- Start date: 2005
- Investment period: 81 quarters
- Mandatory quarterly investment: $1,000
- Index selection: Based on technical analysis and market intuition.
Distribution of trades during the test period:
- SPY: 35 times
- QQQ: 31 times
- IWM: 15 times
The chart illustrates SPY, QQQ, and Russell with blue arrows marking purchase points.
Results of the Experiment
Performance of my strategy:
- +344% return
- Invested: $81,000
- Final value: $360,000
Comparison indices (each quarter regular purchases):
- SPY: +233% (final value: $272,000)
- QQQ: +579% (final value: $552,000)
- IWM: +128% (final value: $186,000)
My strategy outperformed SPY and IWM because I focused on selecting the ETFs in the strongest technical condition at the time. While QQQ delivered higher absolute returns, my diversified approach offered competitive returns with lower risk and more stable outcomes.
Key Takeaways
1. Diversity and Stability: Risk Mitigation and Return Optimization
The goal wasn't just maximum returns but also reducing risk and adopting a smarter approach. While QQQ had the highest returns, remember that it is heavily concentrated in the technology sector, making it riskier. Back in 2005, it wouldn't have been easy to predict that QQQ would outperform. A technical analysis strategy allows for risk diversification by choosing the strongest index at any given time, delivering significant returns while maintaining diversity and stability.
2. Thoughtful Regularity Outperforms Blind Regularity
Strict quarterly investing avoids the biggest mistake investors fear – timing the market. Regularity is crucial, but it needs to be thoughtful. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. My strategy allowed selecting the strongest index at each point, yielding significantly better returns.
3. Wrong Index Choice Can Be Costly
Had I chosen only IWM throughout the period, my return would have been just +128%. This clearly shows the importance of not sticking to one index but instead evaluating regularly to find the one with the greatest potential at any given time.
How to Choose the Best Index: Follow my Newsletter to Guide You
One of many of the topics of this newsletter (You will find it here, in the profile section, visiting my "website") will be sharing my monthly and quarterly top lists of indices, making regular purchases easier for you. The test proved that sticking to one index isn’t the best way forward – but which one should you choose? That’s where the monthly top list comes in.
I firmly believe this strategy and approach have significant potential to help investors make smarter and more confident decisions. That’s why I’m starting a newsletter, where one of the many topics will be sharing this list regularly:
- The technically strongest indices for investing.
- Explanations of why a particular index is technically more attractive than others.
Conclusion
My research proves that technical analysis and understanding of charts can be powerful tools for long-term index investing. Regularity, fact-based decisions, and risk diversification help achieve optimal results.
Your portfolio deserves better decisions. Don’t waste time analyzing indices yourself.
All the best,
Vaido
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-29 : GAP ReversalToday's pattern suggests the markets are going to start off with a bit of a bang.
Although I expect the markets to try to hold up with some support, I believe, ultimately, the markets will break downward - continuing into the Deep-V Feb 9-10 bottom my cycles are projecting.
Gold and Silver are acting to attempt to hedge the global risks and could explode much higher over the next 30 - 60+ days.
Bitcoin looks like it will continue to move downward, first to 98k, then to 92k.
I'm seeing lots of Excess Phase Peak patterns in price action. This suggests the markets are struggling for direction right now and could move aggressively into a downward cycle phase before the Feb 9-10 Deep-V base/bottom.
Either way, we are going to find a lot of opportunities over the next 30+ days as traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
