SPY: A bit of a mixed bagSPY, anything less than a Dumpster Fire would be an understatement.
I go over my general thoughts as I have interpreted them from probability metrics. However, owning to the incredible prolonged ranginess post 2-years of continuous, non-stop upside, my traditional approaches to probability modelling are a bit shook and confused. This leads me to not a lot of confidence in what to expect in the longer term; however, confident about the shorter term outlook.
Here are the key take aways of my analysis that are based in the objective data:
SPY is expecting a -1.94% decline into the week (approximately 2%). This can come before upside, or can come after upside, but the expectation is that SPY falls roughly 2% at some point this week. This is calculated from SPY's open price on Monday. So if SPY opens at 594, we would subtract 1.94% from 594 or:
594 - (594 * 0.0194) = 582.48
We should be retracing the 591 range into Monday.
The target probability is bullish, with an expected upside target of around 600.
The best fit bearish target is 588 on the week.
We retain huge resistance at 597 that has provided significant resistance 20% of the time, according to modelled metrics.
We retain substantial resistance at 607, which has provided significant resistance 40% of the time, according to modelled metrics.
We retain ultimate resistance at 612, which has provided significant resistance 100% of the time.
Thanks for watching!
