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Weekly $SPY Options SPY Options to Kick off October Election is less than a month away. Investors are taking profit and repositioning defensively until after the election noise. VIX over $21. We’re still just 3% off from all-time highs. The next catalysts are rate cuts, job numbers, and earnings. We expect volatility until the election noise settles. This week, we are leaning bearish to start the week. However, the upside trade has the most room for continuation. We are using 15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation. Best of luck! $569 Call 10/16 Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation OVER $568 Targets: $569, $571, $574 $565 Put 10/16 Entry: 15-30 minute confirmation UNDER $568 Target: $565 AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-8 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will gap up and rally higher - moving away from yesterday's base/bottom. Remember, we had two basing and bottoming patterns over the weekend. Although I don't really count weekend patterns as drivers of price trends, I view them as psychological patterns. In other words, they reflect expectations headed into the following week of trading. So, the basing/bottoming patterns last weekend will likely resolve into a melt up type of trend this week and the gapping/breakaway patterns this week will, as a result, present a strong opportunity to the upside for traders. Recently, I started drawing the "Roadmap" trade signals on the charts for traders. This is an attempt to make things easier for all of you. Allowing you to see where the opportunities are for Options or Share trades more clearly. Ideally, if this works for all of us, then I'll be able to map out 4 to 7+ days of price rotation in clear trade triggers for all of us to use. Now, something interesting I wanted to point out is the SPY has just moved into a #3 phase of an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is a very small pullback off a high - but it is still a valid Excess Phase Peak pattern. If price rallies today, as I expect, this rally will invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern and put us into a strong rally phase targeting $605 on the SPY. Gold is getting ready to move into a basing/support zone over the next 18+ hours - then really start to rally higher. BTCUSD has rolled downward - just as I expected moving into the #3 phase of it's Excess Phase Peak pattern. Again, if you are not paying attention - I'm picking apart all of these charts very cleanly and the information I present should be helping you see and identify better trade opportunities. Tell me how I'm doing. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
18
SPY For Tomorrow 10/8/2024Key Levels: Resistance: The recent high around 571.97 acts as the primary resistance level. If SPY pushes upwards, this is a critical level to watch for possible rejection or breakout. Support: There is a support zone around 566.65 and 565.49. This area was tested and held as support. If the price dips tomorrow, keep an eye on how SPY reacts to these levels. Moving Averages: The shorter-term EMA (15) is crossing under the 161 EMA, suggesting that bearish momentum is gaining strength. This cross can indicate a continuation of the current downtrend if no reversal signal is shown. Volume Profile: There’s a significant volume node near the 567.66 level, meaning this area has seen heavy buying and selling interest. If SPY trades around this level tomorrow, it may act as a consolidation or decision point where price either breaks up or down depending on volume direction. MACD: The MACD is slightly bearish as the MACD line crossed below the signal line, indicating a potential shift to the downside. However, the histogram bars are decreasing, which could signal weakening bearish momentum and possible reversal soon. Candlestick Patterns: The red candle (around 12:00 PM today on October 7) shows bearish pressure. However, the green candle that followed it suggests buyers stepped in, creating a minor rejection. Watch how the price behaves around this candle low tomorrow for potential reversal signals. Volume: There was a significant increase in volume during the recent drop, indicating strong selling pressure. However, a return to lower volume on the following candles indicates indecision or lack of continuation, which could lead to consolidation. Plan for Tomorrow: Bullish Scenario: If SPY holds above the 567.66 level and moves toward the 571.97 resistance, consider long positions on a break of that level. Use the volume profile to see if the buying momentum sustains. Bearish Scenario: A break below 566.65 could bring SPY down to test the 565.49 level. If selling pressure increases, a further drop could be likely. Make sure to monitor pre-market data and the first 5-10 minutes of the open for any significant volume spikes or price reactions to these levels. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions. I am not responsible for any losses incurred from using this information.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-7 Roadmap UpdateThis short video updates traders related to the SPY & GOLD Cycle Patterns and how I see price playing out over the next 48+ hours. I also highlight the resistance level setting up in BTCUSD. Should be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 572.97 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 570.79 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 10-7 - SPY Cycle Patterns RoadmapThis week, I'm trying something I started over the last week or two - a "Roadmap" of what I expect to see price do going forward 7-10+ days. Now, this is something most people won't do because it presents a "live or die" outcome. Either I'm going to be right (or somewhat right) about price action and can live with my expectations - or, I'm going to be completely wrong about all of my expectations and it will prove to be a failed exercise in the use of my SPY Cycle Patterns. So, at this point - you know I'm hoping price does exactly what I expect it to do. I started doing this about 2 weeks ago. I just started calling it the "Roadmap" for traders (tieing into the Plan Your Trade concept). What I'm trying to do is to show you how I use my SPY Cycle Patterns (and other analysis techniques) to try to stay ahead of market trends. And you can learn to do this as well. It just takes time, practice, and knowledge. So, as we start the week out in early October - let's see how this plays out and if we get any surprises with price action. I spend quite a bit of time going over BTCUSD today - pay attention. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note. The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout. The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs Dow has failed to make all-time highs Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs Russell has failed to make any new highs Oil rips on Middle East escalations Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong) I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries Major News this week -US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI) -Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY: TA for Tomorrow. (10/7/2024)Chart Pattern Analysis Uptrend Formation: It appears that SPY has broken out of a descending trendline and is now in an uptrend. The price has bounced from the $565-$566 support zone and is currently trading near $572. This breakout from the trendline suggests a bullish reversal in the short term. Volume Analysis: There is no major spike in volume yet, so the momentum behind this breakout will need to be confirmed with higher volume during market hours. MACD Indicator (Bottom Oscillator): The MACD histogram is slightly positive but relatively flat, showing that while the momentum is neutral to bullish, it’s not strong yet. Watch for a further MACD crossover for confirmation of a stronger trend. Support and Resistance Levels Immediate Resistance: $574.41 - $575.00: This is a key resistance zone where SPY may face some selling pressure. If SPY breaks above this level, it could trigger a continuation to the upside. Immediate Support: $570.11: The current support level. If SPY pulls back from its current position, this level could act as a key area for a bounce. Critical Support Zone: $566.00 - $565.31: This is the lower range of support. If SPY falls below this zone, it could revisit lower levels, potentially continuing a bearish trend. Potential Price Action for Tomorrow Bullish Scenario: If SPY stays above $570.11 and continues higher, watch for a test of $574.41 - $575.00. A breakout above this resistance level could lead to a rally towards $578. Entry: Consider entering a long position above $572.36 after confirming sustained buying pressure. Look for higher volume to confirm the breakout. Take-Profit: First target at $574.41, and if the rally continues, second target at $578. Stop-loss: Set your stop-loss slightly below $570 to protect against a false breakout. Bearish Scenario: If SPY falls below $570.11, you might see a retracement back towards the $566 - $565.31 support zone. Entry: Consider a short position below $570 if SPY shows signs of weakening. Take-Profit: First target at $566, and if the bearish momentum continues, second target at $565. Stop-loss: Place your stop-loss above $572 in case of a reversal. Directional Outlook Bullish Bias: The breakout from the descending trendline and the sustained trading above $570 suggest a bullish bias for tomorrow. The key levels to watch are the immediate resistance around $574.41 and the current support at $570.11. Cautious Bearish: However, if SPY loses support at $570 and falls back into the descending trendline, this could indicate a bearish reversal. Summary Resistance: $574.41 - $575.00 Support: $570.11, $566.00 - $565.31 Bullish Entry: Above $572.36 with targets at $574.41 and $578. Bearish Entry: Below $570 with targets at $566 and $565. The direction is likely bullish in the short term, but watch for confirmation in volume and price action at the $570 support. Let me know if you'd like further insights!
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
SPY is looking Very Sexy ! There is 1 more step to go ! N3 Confirmed!! The price is doing exactly what we had predicted (see previous analysis). Indeed, the price bounced in the zone we had predicted last week, creating an "N3" pattern. Now, we are waiting for the final phase of the N3 pattern, which is to reach new highs or new extreme. What do we need to see? This phase is of great importance because, if completed, we would be at new historical highs again. The Key is the Last Candle: If you can observe the last candle on the chart, you'll see it has a very long lower wick. I call this a buying pressure candle; however, we need confirmation with the next candle, which should have a large bullish body in order to reach the new extremes we've been seeking. So, we can conclude that by putting all the points together when analyzing this chart, we have a bullish outlook for the rest of next week. However, it’s important to remember that we need solid confirmation with a bullish candle to confirm we will have a green week! Best regards and success in your trades. Thanks for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Happy October!I think I have been around for... 3 Octobers so far? Probably, and each time I always do a themed post! Since October is my favourite time of the year. October also marks the beginning of the end. The end of a trading year at the end of this new quarter. And in the interest of going all out with different October themes and providing you with information into the year end, I suspect this will be a lengthy post, not simply talking about what to expect for October, but also talking about the bigger picture into the end of the year and trading year. I guess we can break it down, we can break it down to the short term, next week, the month then the EOY. The Short Term The short term (i.e. next week) is, again, looking bullish. Expect some downside days, but just generally look for bullishness. Momentum is lacking. Ironically we are experiencing price action I call "Zombie Buying". Most call it "grinding" but its zombie buying. What that means is, there is 0 momentum, low volume, but 0 reason to sell. So we have small buyers, like retail, buying because, well, there is nothing else to do, and so we get a slow and painful grind up. Its mindless buying, for no reason, so hence why I call it "zombie buying". You can see volume, while steady, has been lackluster. Its more than likely we will see bearishness at points next week. Outlook is more bearish on QQQ for Monday than SPY, so SPY may end up just grinding and trying to move higher, while QQQ sees a bit of a sell. But the motto remains to buy the dip. The immediate target for next week is a move back to 569.29. If we take a look at the last week's worth of Volume nodes: Those are our top POCs/volume zones that you can look for from last week's trading, with the lowest being at 568.68, which would serve as an ideal pullback zone. The best fit forecasted high for SPY next week is 577.60, assuming a bullish bias. And for the low its 563.62 assuming a bearish bias. The Larger Outlook, Month and EOY So, as we are in a new quarter, we have some new high probability targets. We still need to see 585 into EOY. 585 is actually the quarter point forecast, so that is great news! However, with the new quarter, we now have a bit of a bearish high prob on SPX as well: 5,657 is the SPX target. We have yet to hit it, so if we don't pullback into next week enough to remove it, and we run up to the 585 first, it will make for a nice pullback play towards EOY. If we run an ARIMA on SPX (Because I don't want to disrupt my SPY art already haha): The point forecast for SPX, over the next 75 ish trading days into EOY, is 6,232. This is a price of around 621 on SPY. Do I think it goes that high? Probably not, especailly with the lack of momentum we are seeing come in. But it is possible. With the gains SPY has already made, its hard to see how much more they push it on a Santa Rally, but I think anticipation of the low 600s, to 600 is not impossible. Its interesting as well because if we go back to my beggining of year post for SPY, these were the ARIMA results: 80% Confidence that the true high of SPY next year will fall BELOW 591. 95% Confidence that the true high of SPY next year will fall BELOW 633. 80% Confidence that the true low of SPY next year will fall ABOVE 433. 95% confidence that the true low of SPY next year will fall ABOVE 391. So we knew as early as January that 600s were in the realm of possibility this year. 591 is something I do anticipate seeing at this point. So what is the answer for the "longer term"? I don't see any downturn starting before next year. And by downturn I mean bear market, correction, whatever you want to call it. I just don't see it happening until next year. The immediate anticipation is the move to 585. From there, perhaps we grind up on the Santa rally to 591 and potentially 600 to snag closer to the 95% range. This would be enough to cause a correction/pullback, if not just another 10% crash. The outlook for next year will remain to be assessed closer to that point. As of now, these are the targets I would be watching. Downside targets remain inconsequential at this point, imo. I guess that's it! Safe trades everyone and Happy October!!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
6
SPY - short term Head and ShouldersFollowing up on my last SPY chart trend, we have emulated that fractal fairly closely over the last few days. The chart before us now looks to be presenting a Head and Shoulders pattern. Granted it is on a one hour timeframe and anything smaller than a daily for a head and shoulders needs to be taken with a grain of salt (although it can be seen there too) I maintain that the current global narrative will result in a downturn next week. I see two support lines; 1 basically at the neckline and 2 around the 555 price point. I maintain that we flush somewhere around 560 early next week. After closing my 565 strike puts out last Wed I bought the same strike and date (Oct 18) last Fri. I’ll likely sell a few of them if we range at the neckline/support 1 and will let the rest run if we break down under 564. There is a second spider as we enter into the Halloween season…just a bit of fun for me😊 Take care, MR
AMEX:SPYShort
by Mr_Robbers
$SPY OVERIVEW ON THE MONTHLY TIME FRAMEAn overview of AMEX:SPY from a technical standpoint. This does not include any fundamental / economical consideration. AMEX:SPY has been in this rising channel since 2020. Each wave / rejection from the trendline / channel caused a 10 - 12 month directional move 100pts +. AMEX:SPY is at the top trendline / channel again. Could see an upward continuation of price in an attempt to hit $600. Failure to break through $600 could start the retracement / correction / pullback over the next 10 - 12 months back to the bottom of the channel / trendline. This would put AMEX:SPY at around $500, give or take 20 - 40 pts. This would be in alignment with what some of the more well-known analyst / economist has been stating about 15/20% correction. Reason for the margin of error is the last two waves moved an avg of 140 pts. $500 is a key level psychologically and from an algorithmic point of view. $600 is also a key psychological / algorithmic level as well. If there is a break of this level, market could see another 20 - 40 pts topside move before consolidation and then possible retracement / correction / pullback. This is NOT financial advice but merely an opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
1
$SPY $SPX seems like primed for a mega downfallNot trading advice. But seems that based on the chart's historical data and the visual analysis of trend lines, we are at a critical peak in the SPY's price trajectory. The exponential rise seen over the last several years has positioned the market near the upper bounds of a well-established channel, suggesting that upside potential may be severely limited from here. Additionally, the convergence of multiple support and resistance levels signals a potential reversal. Given the extended nature of this current bull run and past cyclical patterns, a sharp downturn seems imminent. This would align with the broader historical trends, where market euphoria peaks before significant corrections, as the price action appears overextended relative to long-term support levels. The likelihood of reversion to the mean, as evidenced by previous corrections at similar junctures, strengthens the case for an impending downturn, which could be substantial given the current inflated levels. SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by dark131313