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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.21.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🛢️ Trump Considers 25% Tariff on Imported Cars: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, aiming to protect domestic manufacturers. This move could impact global trade relations and the automotive industry. 🇷🇺🇺🇸 U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Talks: High-level discussions between U.S. and Russian officials are set to continue, focusing on resolving the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Outcomes from these talks may influence global markets and geopolitical stability. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Friday, Feb 21: 🏭 Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 51.3; Previous: 51.2. 💼 Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0; Previous: 52.9. 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.13M; Previous: 4.24M. 📉 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 71.1; Previous: 67.8. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
SPY: Key Levels and Market Outlook for February 20, 2025Market Structure & Price Action SPY remains within an ascending channel, showing resilience around the 612.30-612.90 zone. The price structure suggests a potential breakout or rejection at resistance. * Support Levels: * 609.60-610.00 (key short-term support) * 608.37 (potential breakdown trigger) * Resistance Levels: * 613.23 (local high & key breakout level) * 615.00+ (potential upside target if momentum continues) GEX & Options Flow Analysis * Call Wall: 615 & 620 * Put Support: 598-605 * Put Sentiment: 83.4% (indicating downside hedging, but could fuel upside if trapped sellers unwind) * IV Rank: 15.2 (relatively low volatility, suggesting a breakout move could be sharp) Possible Scenarios ✅ Bullish Breakout: If SPY holds above 612.50-613, a move towards 615-620 could be in play.
 🚨 Bearish Breakdown: Losing 609.60-610.00 would expose SPY to deeper pullbacks toward 605-600. Final Thoughts The market is at a key inflection point. Monitor volume and price reactions at 613 and 610 for directional confirmation. If momentum builds, SPY could extend toward 615, but failing to hold 610 could shift sentiment bearish.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Thursday, Feb 20: 🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3. 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K. 📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising. Entry: Current Market Price Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room. Targets: All time high Ideas and Inputs are welcome. Thank you for dropping by. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Krut4rth7
7
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below: 1. Which stocks to choose? 2. At what price should the trade be made? 3. In what volume? As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait. However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map. Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right. Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks. Vertical line Alpha - Y axis Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions. Fear of the button This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready. Enthusiasm At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. FOMO FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there. Zen The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills. Disappointment This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy. Euphoria Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue. Tilt A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value. Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Be_Capy
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-19-25: GAP Reversal Counter-trendToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will lead to a price reversal in a counter-trend type of mode. I read this as a potential that price will initially struggle to find a trend. Eventually, when it does identify a trend mode, I believe that trend will strengthen into a reversal of the current upward price trend. Normally, Counter-trend patterns invert. So, what I would have expected as an uptrend would turn into a downtrend. But, the markets have moved into a very consolidated price channel near recent highs and volume has diminished strongly. Because of this type of setup, I believe an aggressive breakaway or breakdown price move is pending. Price will attempt to make a move - and when it does, it should be explosive. My continued research, which I share with you in this video, continues to suggest price will stall out and revert downward. We'll see how things play out over the next few days. Gold and Silver are back near recent all-time highs. Stay cautious of a breakdown in metals associated with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ. BTCUSD is still struggling to make a move. As you will see, I believe the dominant trend is to the downside right now. In short, we are standing at the edge of a cliff regarding price action. At this point, we either grow wings and soar higher or fall downward - hoping for a soft landing. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.19.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🗣️ President Trump's Address: At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 18, President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech that may provide insights into upcoming policy directions. 📱🍏 Apple Product Launch: Apple CEO Tim Cook has announced a new product launch set for February 19, 2025. Speculations suggest it could be the iPhone SE 4, featuring a 6.1-inch OLED display and an A18 chip with Apple Intelligence. 📊 Key Data Releases: 🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 1.390M; Previous: 1.499M. 📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
One More Close and SPY Will be Running!!!Typically I share the signals of my King Trading Momentum Strategy, which combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even a little thing called Beta! But this time it is all about technical analysis. On SPY I originally thought we truncated wave 5 but now that we closed above the all-time high just one more close higher to confirm and this one is off to the races. Today it even retested breakout, held and bounced hard higher into close (super bullish). Impulsive waves are important to me with my momentum strategy, as instead of chasing missed opportunities I simply take the next signal on the hourly, as the strategy is optimized for over 100 beloved equities (if enabled in options)! There is always another trade when SPY goes impulsive! Currently signals have fired on TNA, SPXL, SOXL, TQQQ & UDOW (3x leveraged ETFs) just to name a few. If that doesn't make you feel bullish then I'm not sure what will!
AMEX:SPYLong
by KingTrading999
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Post Market Update : Big Squeeze CloseToday is quite a day in terms of trading volatility and volume. We've not seen a low-volume day like today in the SPY for more than a year. It is very likely this rally near the close of trading was more of a short-squeeze and not really a momentum breakout. We'll see how things play out tomorrow. But, I'm not budging related to my expectations of a breakdown in the markets over the next 5-10+ days. I see this market as completely over-cooked to the upside - and it seems to be evident in the lack of buying volume playing out. My Custom Crash index is flat and topping. My Custom Volatility Index is flat and topping. My Custom US Leading Index is actually LOWER so far this week. One thing is certain, there is a lot of open "air" below the 598 level on the SPY. Buckle Up. When it breaks - it may be a BIG BREAKDOWN setting up. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
Spy Road T0 $615Is it here? Yes indeed it is! We will see $615 according to Me and The Trading Of Future Prediction, We may open Lower Tuesday Morning Approximately 604-606 Before pushing up to 615 this week... If you want to Trade and become a better Trader i suggest you watch the future of trading which the content is out now... So if your longing Spy at the moment be prepared for a possibly brief open to the downside before heading up and finishing to about 615 this week..... and as always good luck traders and safe trades
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-18 : GAP PotentialAs the markets continue to struggle to break away from the current consolidated/sideways price trend, one thing is certain: The current FLAG/EPP pattern is setting up an explosive price move. My expectations are for a price breakdown, as my predictive modeling and GANN Cycle Patterns suggest that Major Bottoms will set up near February 21 and March 21-23. These major Bottoms suggest a strong potential for a price breakdown, reflecting uncertainty for the first half of 2025. Additionally, I believe the strength of the US Dollar is driving a "Capital Shift," where foreign capital is actively moving away from currency and economic risks, pooling aggressively into the safest currency and assets. This translates into capital pooling into US, UK, and EURO assets to avoid broader currency devaluation events. The dynamics of the global markets are very interesting right now. The influx of capital into the strongest economies with the strongest currencies may present a MELT-UP type of market trend. However, the uncertainty related to future US economic growth and performance may prompt some deep downturns/pullbacks in price. I don't see how the US markets can move past the economic turmoil of broad government restructuring until after June/July 2025. Therefore, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious of any melt-up trend. The markets want to move higher, but there are currently extreme volatility risks related to any potential price breakdowns. I'm watching Gold/Silver and Bitcoin to see if we move back into any euphoric phase. And right now, I'm seeing metals starting to move into a type of panic selloff while Bitcoin is struggling to regain any real strength. The continued sideways trend of Bitcoin leads me to believe the euphoria is diminishing, and reality may be setting in. That means we may be in for a bumpy ride over the next 90+ days. Stay fluid and stay cautious of any big breakdowns. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18 Expected move on the day is between 606 - 614 Expected move on Wednesday’s contract 614 - 615 30 Day average is a bit wider 603 - 617 so might not be a bad plan to find the midpoint as well. Everything between 615 and 617 is extreme overbought and likewise everything between 614 and 613 is extreme oversold on the day. That downtrend line that is facing down is NOT downward momentum. Look to the Moving averages instead. 30min 200 MA is FLAT We are just underneath ATH’s here and if we break above 614 is the next target on the day Underneath us we have the 35EMA and at the very bottom we have the 30min 200MA which is FLAT These two are bullish here after inflation data. Bullish - but overbought - with Flat momentum. Let’s GOOOOOOOO
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SPY Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18Technical Analysis (TA) for SPY * Current Price Action: SPY is in a strong uptrend, consolidating near $610, which is a key resistance level. The price is showing signs of exhaustion but remains bullish. * Support & Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $610 – If SPY breaks and holds above this, it could see more upside. * Next Resistance: $615 – Aligns with the 2nd Call Wall from GEX data. * Major Resistance: $620 – A significant resistance level where price may struggle. * First Support: $607 – If SPY pulls back, this could be the first bounce zone. * Major Support: $600 – A break below this level would shift the momentum bearish. * Critical Breakdown Level: $595 – Losing this level could lead to a larger sell-off. * Indicators: * MACD: Flat, indicating that SPY is in consolidation mode at resistance. * Stochastic RSI: Oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Options Flow & GEX Analysis * GEX (Gamma Exposure): * Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $620 – The most critical resistance area. * 94.55% Call Wall: $615 – A major resistance zone that could cap further upside. * 72.37% Call Wall: $610 – SPY is testing this level, and a breakout could be bullish. * Put Wall Support: $600 – The strongest downside support based on options positioning. * 3rd Put Wall: $595 – A key level to watch if SPY starts breaking down. * IV & Sentiment: * IV Rank (IVR): 13.9 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper. * IVx Avg: 13.9 → A stable volatility level. * Options Sentiment: Puts = 74.8% → A heavy bearish positioning in options flow, possibly hedging against downside risk. Trade Setups 📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): * Entry: Above $610 with strong volume. * Target: $615, then $620 (Gamma Squeeze Potential). * Stop Loss: Below $607. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play): * Entry: Below $607. * Target: $600 or $595 (Put Support). * Stop Loss: Above $610. Final Thoughts * SPY remains bullish but is facing strong resistance at $610. * A breakout above $610 could lead to a rally toward $615-$620. * A failure to hold $607 might trigger a pullback to $600 or lower. * Best Trade Approach: Watch for confirmation of a breakout above $610 or breakdown below $607 before entering a trade. 🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
AMEX:SPYLong
by BullBearInsights
2
Setting Up For Big MoveThe up and down motion is a clear precursor for a big move and while the current price action is up....but as yet with out big strong price movement up. As of yet we keep bouncing and moving up and yet not yet breaking any new big territory. A ceiling? Distribution and the load up of shorts for the big rug pull downward to fill the gap? Or consolidation and chewing and coiling before breaking out above. Tempting to choose the later. But my nagging intuition is telling me the gap fill below. Hard for me to jump in low for anything other than a scalp. Holding puts for the possible rug pull. I've been wrong many times before but there's no harm in placing small bets with limited downside for the possible big winner. Too high and too much resistance and gap fill below for me to risk the long (at least for me since I play SP500 futures). Time will tell.
AMEX:SPY
by tbuckle
9