SPY Time to come down.SPY time to take a break but don't expect much from the 4hrs and 1hr pov. probable 555.00 and in the worse case scenario 523.00. We'll see once it gets there and most important "how it gets there".
It has strong res at 575.00
SPY trade ideas
SP500 Correction neededSP500 Correction needed
Technical picture of correction:
- Wedge - internal and external
- Finish of W3
- Long period of gains
- Oscillator 4H+ overbought
Where do we go from here ? Hint have a hedge on.We hit target 565 was looking a little higher
Lets see we get follow thru tomorrow down
Be prepared this market gonna sink
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 6, 2025 🔮🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📉 Market Retreats Amid Tariff Concerns
U.S. stock markets declined on May 5, 2025, as investors reacted to potential tariffs and key earnings reports. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq decreased 0.7%. Notably, Palantir Technologies ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) fell nearly 8% in extended trading despite raising its full-year revenue forecast and exceeding Q1 revenue estimates.
🏛️ Fed Meeting Commences Amid Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins today, with the central bank expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies.
🎬 Entertainment Stocks Under Pressure
Streaming giants Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) and Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) experienced premarket losses of over 5% and 3%, respectively, following President Trump's proposal of a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies.
🏠 Housing Market Faces Challenges
The U.S. housing market is weakening due to persistent high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty driven by tariff policies. Mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.76%, have deterred both prospective buyers and sellers.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, May 6:
8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
I SPY levels....It's a FOMC week (scheduled for Wed 5/7). So you can use your skills to scalp prior if you can.
Levels to mark...
*week hi/lo
*day hi/lo
those levels should be helpful when you spot intraday setups (if you can). if you can plan a strong $1 move, you can win $50. play to your strengths. that's all i'm going to do.
Broad MonitorThis is a huge set of assets, stocks, ETFs that I use to watch for shifts in market regimes.
$SPY Short Swing, vwap+supply+resistanceBackground. Easy confluence trade. We had the largest and fastest rally in stock history from 2022 to now. Everyone who loaded up at $380-430 is ready to take some profits. After the tariff announcements, we sold off hard through a bunch of levels and trendlines down to the bottom of the longer term uptrend.
Current situation. We have retraced back up to the first major supply area, where everyone who bought the dip back in march went long. They've been underwater and are ready to sell for scratch. This will drive the price back down. Maybe the end of a long term uptrend. Maybe just leg 2 of the tariff drop, back down to the trendline. I can't know that.
Delta. If you look at the volume footprint chart, there has been a huge negative delta this whole rally. Prices are going up but the larger players are selling into it. Essentially, the last 2 weeks have been driven up by main street, while wall street unloads. Once there are enough bagholders, the floor can fall out. Here's the weekly delta.
Trading Approach. This is a good point to initiate the start of a long term short position. Like, buying puts 1-2 years out with a $450 target, a gap that's never been filled. I think it's also a good swing entry but with closer targets. On the more pessimistic attitude, after the tariffs, the world started the process of dethroning America as leader of the free world. There's a lot of gravity pulling down to $250 and if the world fully turns on the US, that's where we're heading.
480 Was Our Low This YearTrading Fam,
In my last post, I speculated that there were (2) two great areas to start your DCA back into this market. The first was at SPY 505 and I postulated that if we dropped lower, we could hit SPY 460. Not quite. Looks like our downward trajectory reached it's bottom exactly at that ascending white support line. Now here's the interesting part. That trendline was actually started way back in March of 2020, the Covid-19 crisis, when Trump was also president. I should have seen this trend but I don't think I had it drawn in until more recently. This trendline has obviously proven extremely significant and I'd advise that you draw it into your charts as well. We now have something to watch closely. I suspect that if price breaks down from here, it won't be pretty. This year, I don't think that will happen. I believe we saw our low this year upon the touch of that trendline at 480. So, if you didn't get your money started back in at the 505 level, you were not given much of a chance afterwards.
Today we can see that our price is back above numerous levels of resistance which will now act as support. Firstly, that 505 level. Next, the VRVP point of control (yellow horizontal line). Third, that pink ascending trendline. That was huge and we have confirmed the move above it now on the daily. If we stay above it by market close on Friday, we're good. That will be enough to also provide us weekly confirmation.. Finally, we are sitting right on support at 563, that pink horizontal line. All of these bullish breaks show me that price should remain above our white ascending trendline started in March of 2020 for some time, and I am guessing the rest of the year.
I remain steadfast in my bias towards my SPY Target #3 at 670-700 before sometime next year. Two targets hit so far. One to go. I am fairly confident we will hit it. At which point, it will be time to make some serious decisions about what to do next.
✌️Stew
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 5 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 5th, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
SPY Holding the Channel – Can It Bounce or Fade Today?Market Summary
SPY is currently trading around $563, showing early weakness after stalling below key resistance at 566–567 last week. Futures were flat overnight with mixed macro sentiment and low volatility. We're starting today near the lower trendline of the rising channel visible on the 15-minute chart.
Technical Structure
* Trend: Price is still holding the lower boundary of the upward channel from May 1–2.
* Support: ORL at 564.29 and lower trendline ~563.20–563.40.
* Resistance: ORH at 565.47, PMH at 565.95, and GEX resistance at 567.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Flattening with bearish cross on shorter timeframes.
* Stoch RSI: Reset to lower range, watching for potential curl up.
Options & Gamma Insight (GEX)
* Current Price: $563
* PUT Pressure Dominant: GEX sentiment is 🔴🔴🔴 Bearish, with:
* PUT$ flow = 115.6% (significantly overweighted)
* IVR 26.1, IVx avg 20.4 = Still room to expand in volatility.
* Key Gamma Levels:
* Resistance Walls:
* 567 → 2nd CALL Wall (major resistance)
* 568–570 → CALL resistance zone
* Support Zones:
* 562–561 → Heavy GEX support
* 560 → Highest negative net GEX = strong PUT wall
Potential Scenarios for Today
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Price reclaims ORH 565.47 and breaks above 566, triggering momentum to test 567.
* If momentum continues, squeeze toward 568 or even 570 is possible, but less likely unless volume spikes.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Break below 562.68 Ask, triggering fast move to 561.70 and possibly flush into 560 PUT wall.
* Below 560 opens the door to 557 or even 554–555 if panic selling or negative macro.
Actionable Levels
* Long above: 565.50 with target 566.80–567 | Stop < 563.80
* Short below: 562.80 with target 561 → 560 zone | Stop > 564.50
* Scalp Range Zone: Between 563.50–565.50 = chop risk
Final Take
SPY is pinned between heavy PUT support at 560 and CALL resistance at 567. With PUTs outweighing CALLs, a flush toward 561–560 could be favored unless bulls reclaim 566+. Watch for sharp directional trigger around 10:00–10:30 AM ET.
📌 This preview is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and confirm with your own system before trading.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week.
I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks.
I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days.
The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs.
I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth.
Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious.
Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment.
I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend.
Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations.
Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next.
I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June.
I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range.
Let's see how things play out this week.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY EOW TARGETS!
SPY EOW TARGETS
585 bullish
551 bearish
530 oh no
Bullish Bias till 555 is broken
1. To maintain a healthy uptrend SPY will need a retracement to 558-560
2. While reddit is panicking I'll be looking at a short swing trade, stop below 555 and targeting 570-573
3. 570 will prob be a chop zone before another liquidity swoop lower, then after or leading up to FOMC we pump to 585
TL;DR Bullish Bias for now, look for long setups, catch a swing play once retracement to 560ish is complete
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions.
📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap
This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence.
💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus
Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape.
🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes
Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, May 5:
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final)
10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April)
📅 Tuesday, May 6:
8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March)
📅 Wednesday, May 7:
2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference
📅 Thursday, May 8:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March)
📅 Friday, May 9:
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY: Where to next? These are just my thoughts and opinions, not advice.
I forgot to mention in the video, Monday has a bearish forecast. If you pay attention to the Weekly forecast I share in the video, this is more similar to the bullish path (selling into Monday). :-O.
Bit of a longer video because lots to talk about.
Safe trades everyone!
US Outperformance, when will it end?The US market has consistently outperformed global markets since the global financial crisis, it has also outperformed since the tech bubble. A portion of this can be attributed to a strong dollar (many markets outperformed in local currency). However this strong dollar performance may be coming to an end.
In addition there are structural reasons why the US has and may continue to outperform:
1. A larger weighting to higher growth sectors such as technology, communication services and a lower weight to lower growth sectors such as energy and materials.
2. Better rule of law, better focus on shareholder returns, less crowding from the government and state owned enterprises lowering the return of markets. (EM SOEs as an example)
3. US attracting global talent and fostering innovation. "The smartest person in any subject will likely go to the US'
So how can the US consistently underperform given these things?
1. Well for one the dollar may start to be a worse performing currency, it seems the current administration wants that. This not only lowers the performance of the US compared to global markets it also lowers the foreign inflows to US assets and also benefits EMs with dollar denominated debts.
2. The idea that the US attracts the best talent and fosters innovation may be declining with the current cultural attacks on immigration and the federal government spending cuts impacting research projects.
3. Global markets currently have a lower weighting to high growth sectors however this may not continue and instead we may start to see the marginal weight of sectors going to higher growth sectors instead of lower growth sectors.
4. The darling companies in most countries may list in their local markets instead of in the US. (Seeing the UK ease regulations of share classes, Chinese companies not welcomed in the US, European companies redomiciling back to Europe)
5. Valuations, Valuations, Valuations. Gun to your head: Next ten years would the multiple become a headwind or tailwind for the US market? What about for global markets? US trades at roughly 21x forward earnings whereas the UK trades at 12x, Eurozone at 14x, Japan at 13.5x, EM at 12x and China at 11x.
If after 10 years the US trades at an 18x multiple and the UK as an example trades at a 15x valuation that would be an annualized headwind of 1.5% for the US and an annualized tailwind of 2.3% for the UK. Add to that the effect of low starting valuations on yield (US net shareholder yield is close to 2% whereas the UK yields 4%).
Just rough numbers on performance for US vs UK next 10 years.
US: -1.5% multiple change, 2% yield, 10% earnings growth = 10.5%
UK: 2.3% multiple change, 4% yield, 6% earnings growth, 1% currency = 13.3%
Everyone is over allocated to the US and is under allocated outside the US. Currently the US represents around 20% of global GDP however it represents 70% of global market cap. 70 cents of every dollar in the equity market is in and goes to the US. Will this likely increase or decrease as a share? The next question becomes who will take that share if it falls?
Investing outside the US does not mean:
Investing in markets with bad shareholder friendliness
Investing in markets with a history of fraud
Investing in markets with notorious related party transactions
Investing in markets with high starting valuations.
Some markets such as China can have the first 3 issues applied to it, some markets such as India may frankly have all of these issues. Some markets in Europe may have the first and last aspect. And some markets likely have none of these issues. I propose Japan, UK and Northern Europe.
History is only a guide however the history of returns involved one of the single best economic performances of any country coming from the US which resulted in an amazing stock market with great returns, this is not guaranteed.
Historically stocks return nominally 10% and on a real basis 7% which can be decomposed to 3% yield and 7% earnings growth with virtually no multiple change (on long enough time horizons) when you start at a high valuation the yield component is lower and you need higher earnings growth to compensate. And on a much longer time horizon earnings growth is what really matters.
Earnings growth does not exist out of no where, it usually tracks nominal gdp growth + a margin increase from operations and or sector compositions.
Nothing is guaranteed, your next maximum drawdown is in the future, expect the unexpected and keep invested as the global debt bubble will likely be inflated away.
SPY: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
SPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry Point - 566.62
Stop Loss - 582.02
Take Profit - 540.07
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY to pulback to 544Looking for SPY to pullback to 544.
544 is a very strong support, also the 38.2% fib. If it breaks this level, then it expect a rapid acceleration to 530 and 515.
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! QQQ SPY SP:SPX
Mag 7 Forecast TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 566.62 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 542.79
Recommended Stop Loss - 579.54
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Spy.. The wedgesRemember this, when it comes to technical analysis, anything that goes up really fast form's a rising wedge most of the time and anything that drops quickly form's a falling wedge.
The Spy has risen 12% since April 21 and after this week i we will give half back and head to 533-535.
As you know market goes no where without tech..
So I'll just show you the proce action of the biggest tech sectors
AMEX:XLK
AMEX:XLC
NASDAQ:SMH
And lastly NASDAQ:QQQ
A big red flag in addition to that wedge is the RSI Divergence since April 23 shown on qqq 1hour rsi
Seeing Divergence is like noticing Ball tires; you don't know the exact date the tires will bust but you know it's coming and you just hope your aren't driving (In calls).
This is Qqq daily chart..
200sma purple line
Red line 20sma
We closed right below 200 day but we are 7% away from the 20sma.. qqq usually extended 4-5% from the 20sma before retesting it.
So long story short stay away from tech calls !
2 reasons I think the Spy can make another high this week.
1. Vix still has a gap to close at 21.50
Fallen wedge here, not surprising, vix pattern is usually opposite of spy. I think an explosive moves comes soon here
2. Dow jones , XLF and IWM have the April 2nd liberation day gap to close ..
The dow jones gap is 2% wide, that means another 800pts up. You ever seen the dow pump 800pts and the Spy not go up? Me neither
So I think unless Spy breaks back below 560 early in the week we could melt up to 572-575.
With no big tech earnings that pop up would likely come from FOMC wed..
Whatever intra week high the market makes, I don't think it will close near it.. what I mean is, let's say Spy spike to 572 wed I think we will close the week 560 or lower
Becareful Swinging calls, with all these tech sectors showing a rising wedge I'm sure some of these tech names reporting will disappoint.
Lots of low volume chop early in the week.. count me out until Wed
Bigger picture
Unless we break 530 we aren't headed to 510.. if we break below 510 then 495 will come.. below 495 is death
If we close the week above 585 somehow then we are headed back to 610
Lastly
Es 4hour chart
Cleanest look here. Yellow trendline represents higher lows.
When we break rising wedge I will short to Yellow trendline
SP500 ETF: Fibonacci MappingAs you may know, Williams Fractals indicator identifies potential reversal points by marking a high (or low) surrounded by two lower highs (or higher lows) on each side, forming a five-bar pattern that signals possible turning points in price. Unfortunately, the simplicity of such indicator provides just tiny perspective, undermining broad implication of the concept.
Before I begin diving into processing geometric narrative of emerging price via fibonacci channels, I want to explain how I interpret fractals.
When I use the term "fractal", I'm not just talking about the points alone. Market continuously corrects itself, so analyzing it by price alone can bring more confusion than help. The object of observation shouldn't be limited to quantifying just by a single property. Chaos by default requires awareness from both price and time aspects. The easiest way to root it in my vision was through realization that price is a function of trading time intervals. Its activity can be described as cyclical progression, as if it is wired by multiple "springs" of different tensions.
Classic TA patterns known to literally anyone are great for anticipating a move in surface level forecasts. Since my line of work focuses on prediction over forecasts, it requires deeper structural awareness behind complex oscillations.
Let's observe the way selloff scales from ATH and how it impacts fractal hierarchy.
The first corrective bullish wave can be explained as a reaction to initial impulsive bearish wave. The bigger scale drop from ATH to a lower point explains why the corrective bullish wave looks the way it is. And so on:
In fractals, scaling laws describe how key properties change with size, typically following power-law relationships that reflect the structure’s self-similarity, where a characteristic scales with the size raised to an exponent.
To build a probabilistic model, we must keep in mind how the smaller bits make up bigger scale picture. ATH, established bottom and angle of progression defined by pullback highs, all those points have structural weight. Since psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it's fair to use Fibonacci Channels to map the geometry of interconnectedness.
Similarly, all of those points can be referred by another fibonacci channel with opposite direction.
From my perspective, traditional TA patterns reflect just phases of cycle, this is why I unify those fragments into broader scalable shapes. This distinctive branch of Fractal Analysis allows to track systematic aspects of market behavior and explains how a pattern replicates itself in rhythmic continuity.
$SPY Possible simulation with COVID, Bottom at 495 then ATH 630Lowest RSI since COVID , highest daily volume for years! but if copy the wave of COVID drop we can see some similarities. bottom by 2nd week April at 495 then consolidation at 530 then up and fighting zone between 550-560 then up and small top on June/July then All time high in Sep at 630. the idea, take long dated strangles options
SPY will make new highs in coming weeks to monthsI decided to swap to the weekly view and found the 3 most bullish candlestick patterns all appearing in the month of April.
1st: Piercing Pattern:
This occurred on the week following Liberation day. The piercing pattern occurs when price closes above the midpoint of the prior weeks red bar after opening below the low of the previous week.
It signals that the price action was very emotional and reactionary, gapping below the low the a strong downtrend, it then signals that buyers were committed to recapture a majority of the price action. It also indicates that there may be trapped bears and short positions that were opened at the low, this can squeeze price higher.
2nd: Bullish Engulfing
This occurred the week last week. It is a classic pattern that signals to turn bullish. It occurs when the green bar fully engulfs the previous weeks red bar.
It signals that the price action was able to make a new low, this is important as similar to the piercing pattern it indicates there may be trapped bears/shorts who will be squeezed and forced to capitulate. It also indicates that the bulls were able to make new highs breaking out of the previous weeks range.
3rd: 3 Outside and up
This just occurred to end this week. It is a rare follow-up to the bullish engulfing, it is defined by a bullish engulfing that has a following week with a close strongly above the engulfing candles high.
It signals that the engulfing candle had commitment and follow-through, it signals that bears were unable to stop the trend and are at the point of capitulation. Many bullish engulfing patterns can lead to consolidation or weekly doji candles, or the less frequent reversals if bears are strong. the 3 Outside and up confirms that the bullish movement is strong.
This was a very difficult month to trade with a ton of traps, I expect there will be more traps and pullbacks to come, but the big picture is bullish.
