AAPL Compression Before the Break? 🔥Alright, here’s my breakdown on AAPL as I walk through the chart from the daily timeframe, zoom into the hourly, and then connect it with the GEX map for a directional play this week — especially with macro eyes watching SPY and the Trump/investor meeting narrative floating around.
🟩 Daily Timeframe – Holding Uptrend but Needs a Spark
On the daily chart, AAPL is still holding above the trendline and stacking candles inside a minor consolidation. The MACD is trying to curl back up and Stoch RSI looks like it’s reloading after last week’s overbought run. This type of compression right under resistance often leads to breakout setups if buyers step in — especially if SPY keeps grinding up like it did into close today. I’m keeping $215 and $220 in sight as those are the first higher timeframe targets if bulls really get control.
⏱ 1H Timeframe – Clean Structure, But Rejected at Resistance
Zooming into the hourly, you can see how clean AAPL has been. The recent move up tapped the GEX9 and GEX10 zones around $213–$215 before sellers pushed price down hard into the $209–$210 region. That rejection was healthy, volume surged, but now price is hovering near HVL ($205), which is the GEX-projected short-term support. If bulls defend $205 and reclaim $210 tomorrow morning, we could be in for a squeeze toward $213.50–$215 again.
📈 GEX + Options Data – A Battle Near GEX Walls
GEX levels are dense here. That $213.53–$215 band is the highest positive NET GEX wall — a heavy resistance area based on call positioning. Below, PUT walls are stacked at $205 and $200, with the -48% support at $200 acting like a trapdoor if bears take control.
But here’s what’s interesting:
* IVR is low (40.1), IV is steady, and the Options Oscillator shows some mixed interest.
* If the market mood improves (and SPY breaks out), this could become a gamma squeeze magnet toward $220.
* On the flip side, if AAPL can’t reclaim $210 early tomorrow, we may drift to retest $205 or even get a nasty flush to $200, especially with earnings risk nearby.
💡 What I’m Thinking:
This looks like a coiled spring. If SPY continues to rise and the Trump/investor meeting adds positive sentiment, AAPL might ride the flow toward $213–$215 and beyond. I’m watching the $210 reclaim as a trigger — no entry unless that happens. Options-wise, calls above $215 are aggressive but could pay off on momentum. Safer trades lie near the money for weekly scalps.
If AAPL fails $205, I might flip bias for a quick PUT scalp down to $200.
🛠 Suggested Trade Setups:
Bullish: If price breaks and holds above $210, look to long toward $213.50–$215 with stop under $207.
Bearish: If $205 fails, PUTs targeting $200 with a stop over $208 could work. Ideal setup would be a fake push toward $210 that gets rejected.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly.
