bullish SPY (pitchfork based)SPY reached the bottom of one pitchfork and the middle of the second one and bounced back up. I expect the bounce to continue
SPY trade ideas
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 23 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 23, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will continue to push higher, possibly breaking upper resistance near $550/493.
As I suggested in this video, I believe the upward price trend bias will continue into Friday (4-25) and suddenly shift into a BEARISH price trend/bias early next week.
The May 2-5 Major Bottom cycle low, my research predicts, will happen and should prompt a fairly strong downward price trend as we near the end of April and head into early May.
Gold and Silver will likely consolidate a bit over the next 24-48 hours. So, this is a great time to pick lower entry price levels for LONGS/CALLS.
Ultimately, I'm still expecting Gold to rally above $3750 before the end of May and attempt to target $4500++ before the end of June.
BTCUSD is moving into a potential "INVALIDATION" phase. Although I'm currently estimating the probability of that invalidation at about 20-30%, it is still a valid price trend.
I believe BTCUSD will shift into a downward price trend as the markets continue to unwind excesses through the May, July, and October lows, according to my cycles.
The big opportunity for traders over the next 48 hours is playing the upward trend bias in the SPY/QQQ - then moving into a mode of preparation for next week's breakdown/downward price trend in the SPY/QQQ.
So, play it smart. Follow the chart and don't try to be a superhero.
Play what is in front of you and prepare for the bigger price swings headed into next week and beyond.
Get some.
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SPY Setting Up for a Breakout? Gamma, Liquidity & TA Aligning 🔍GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment)
SPY is showing an impressive surge off the 508 HVL zone, with a clean stair-step climb supported by options flow. Gamma exposure is shifting favorably:
* Strongest Call Wall sits at 528–530, where we see the highest positive NETGEX—aka the Gamma Wall.
* Price is currently testing the 536 level, and the bulls are targeting 549 and potentially 561+ if momentum continues.
* Options Oscillator shows notable GEX alignment (🟢🟢🟢) and IVR 48.8, suggesting room for more expansion.
➡️ Calls are in control (48.6%), and no major PUT pressure remains above 508. With IV contraction, theta decay is less brutal. This opens the door for short-dated call entries (0DTE to 3DTE) above 530.31 with stops below 526.61.
Price Action & Trading Plan
On the 1H chart, SPY has broken out from a CHoCH + BOS structure, and we’re currently in a bullish continuation move.
* Trend Strength: Strong Bullish
* Market Structure: In premium but bullish hold.
* Candle Volume: Thin, but breakout is supported by prior strong demand.
* Setup: Long is forming – waiting for follow-through.
🔑 Key Levels:
* Entry: Above 530.31
* Targets: 549 (RRR 1), 561.53 (RRR 2)
* Invalidation: Below 526.61
🧠 My Thoughts
SPY is building momentum and options are reinforcing the move. The breakout through the HVL zone, combined with SMC-confirmed structure and GEX tailwinds, tells me the path of least resistance is up. Volume isn’t overly strong yet, so we need to monitor follow-through and not get trapped if a reversal forms near 540–549. If bulls defend 530, this could turn into a "home run" leg into the week.
🚨 Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage your risk accordingly.
SPY INV C&H Right at the 50% fib retracement & the trendline. We are not out of the woods just yet. Careful tomorrow.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 23, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Ease: President Trump announced plans to "substantially" reduce tariffs on Chinese imports, signaling a potential de-escalation in the trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent labeled the current tariffs as "unsustainable," and the IMF warned of a "major negative shock" to global growth due to the ongoing trade conflict.
📉 Tesla's Profit Decline: Tesla reported a 71% drop in Q1 profits, attributing the decline to backlash over CEO Elon Musk's involvement in government affairs. Musk announced plans to reduce his role in the "Department of Government Efficiency" (Doge) starting in May.
🛫 Boeing's Earnings Under Scrutiny: Boeing is set to report earnings, with investors closely watching for impacts of trade tensions on Chinese plane deliveries. The company's performance is seen as a bellwether for the aerospace sector amid global economic uncertainties.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 23:
🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the annualized number of newly constructed homes sold, indicating housing market strength.
📈 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Manufacturing Forecast: 49.5
Services Forecast: 51.0
Provides insight into the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report (10:30 AM ET):
Reports on the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by U.S. firms, influencing oil prices and energy sector performance.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Back of trendline on Hourly look for profit takingon the daily it's bullish for uptrend, however in the hourly chart it looks like we can see some profit taking. a small short there.
SPY Falling Wedge Into Support SPY forming a descending wedge after an extreme sell off, one of the fastest declines in recent history.
This wedge style pattern tends to be the result of sharp move in a particular direction, in this case downward as temporary relief before continuiing in the direction of the larger trend.
Ill be looking for liquidity to enter the market on the thursday / friday session for a potential bounce. If not, then its likely the market will be in for a rough spring.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 22 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 22, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
SPY loving the C&H Pattern right nowSpy seems to be loving the C&H pattern right now. Wait for your conformations
SPY Plan Your Trade For 4-22 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets are moving in a counter-trend mode and that we may see a Breakaway type of price bar.
The current trend is Bearish. Thus, I believe the current Counter-Trend is Bullish.
As many of you already know. I picked up some Calls off the lows yesterday after noticing a complete EPP pattern (Ultimate Low) setup about 75 minutes before the end of the regular trading day on 4-21.
My opinion, overall, is that we are still stuck within a consolidation phase. But that doesn't mean we can't see the SPY/QQQ move higher (toward the upper consolidation high) or roll back downward (toward the lower consolidation low).
I do believe we are moving into a moderate upward price trend over the next 3-4+ days where price will attempt to retest the 525-535+ level on the SPY, then ROLL into a top and start a sharp downtrend.
This volatility presents an incredible opportunity for traders. Staying ahead of these trends is key to improved success.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are fairly clear. We've moved into consolidation, and the price is very volatile. The Counter Trend pattern today may setup a 3-4+ day minor rally in the SPY/QQQ.
But, ultimately, I believe the SPY/QQQ will roll downward into the May Cycle lows - just as I have been predicting for the past 45+ days.
Don't get greedy. Play the immediate trend and learn to identify the EPP patterns on 5-minute charts.
Today should be a very good day for traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 22, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🚗 Tesla's Q1 Earnings on Watch: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings after market close. Analysts expect EPS of $0.58 on $23.4B revenue. Investors are focused on delivery guidance, cost-cutting measures, and updates on the robotaxi program and Optimus robot. CEO Elon Musk faces pressure to refocus on Tesla amid concerns over his political engagements.
📉 Market Volatility Amid Tariff Concerns: U.S. markets remain volatile due to ongoing trade tensions. The S&P 500 has declined 14% from its February high, with investors closely monitoring corporate earnings for insights into the economic impact of recent tariffs.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 22:
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.20 million
Previous: 4.38 million
Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.
📘 IMF Global Financial Stability Report (10:15 AM ET):
The IMF will release its latest assessment of global financial markets, focusing on systemic risks and financial stability.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY repeat of ladle patternJust presenting what I see. Prices likely to be pulled back up to the LVN looking at good buy volume at close. However the days volume wasn't great because of the Europe holiday
Holidays ar common for whipsaw prices. With european markets open today, I wont be surprised if the market head back up for a day or two watch out for the resistance line
Safe trading
Tears of Liberty. Lets Make America Sell Again.Over the past decade, the U.S. stock market has significantly outperformed global stock markets excluding the United States. This divergence in returns has been one of the defining features of global investing since 2015, with U.S. equities—especially large-cap technology stocks—driving much of the outperformance.
Annualized Returns (2015–2025)
AMEX:SPY , S&P 500 Index(U.S.):
The S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 13.8% over the past ten years.
NASDAQ:ACWX , MSCI All World ex U.S. (Rest of World):
Global stocks outside the U.S. returned an average of 4.9% annually over the same period
Year-by-Year Breakdown
Year | SPX | World ex U.S. | U.S. Surplus
2024 23.9% 4.7% +19.2%
2023 23.8% 17.9% +5.8%
2022 -19.6% -14.3% -5.4% (!)
2021 26.6% 12.6% +14.0%
2020 15.8% 7.6% +8.2%
2019 30.4% 22.5% +7.9%
2018 -6.6% -14.1% +7.5%
2017 18.7% 24.2% -5.5% (!)
2016 9.8% 2.7% +7.1%
2015 -0.7% -3.0% +2.3%
Key Drivers of Performance
U.S. Outperformance
The U.S. market’s dominance was driven largely by the rapid growth of technology giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which benefited from strong earnings growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows.
International Underperformance
Non-U.S. markets faced headwinds such as multiply choking sanctions and tariffs, slower economic growth, political uncertainty (notably in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and less exposure to high-growth technology sectors.
Valuation Gap
By 2025, U.S. stocks are considered relatively expensive compared to their international counterparts, which may offer more attractive valuations going forward.
Recent Shifts (2025 Trend):
As of early 2025, international stocks have started to outperform the S&P 500, with European and Asian equities seeing renewed investor interest. Factors include optimism over economic recovery in China and strong performance in European defense and technology sectors.
Long-Term Perspective
Historical Context
While the past decade favored U.S. equities, this has not always been the case. For example, during the 2000s, international stocks outperformed the U.S. following the dot-com bust.
Market Weight
The U.S. accounts for roughly 60% of global stock market capitalization and about 25% of global GDP, so its performance has a substantial impact on global indices.
Conclusion
From 2015 to 2025, the U.S. stock market delivered nearly triple the annualized returns of global markets excluding the U.S., primarily due to the outperformance of large-cap technology stocks.
While this trend has persisted for most of the decade, early 2025 shows signs of a potential shift, with international equities beginning to close the performance gap. Investors should remain aware of valuation differences and the cyclical nature of global market leadership.
The main technical chart for U.S./ ex U.S. ratio indicates the epic reversal is in progress.
S&P 500, SPY, US stocksSPY seems to have reached the bottom of the correction and should now slowly begin an uptrend again. Confluence with high volume support below these levels, VIX peaked, correction wave C to more than 100% of leg A, support by the earlier top.
Further downside of course possible, but at this point it makes sense to hold the positions as the market is very oversold.
SPY short targets for this weekI expect this area to offer at least a bounce. There may be something like that on Thursday.
This is based on my dowsing work. I also left my prior idea, which was done at the beginning of the month to see how things shake out with projecting week by week with my work.
Obviously, the standout dates were very relevant. I don't get that there are any new dates to add.
Intuitively, I will say I heard the word, "floor". So where we land may be support for a bit?
We'll see. I'm still very new at intuitively hearing/receiving messages & things.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 21 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 21, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
SPY -Europe closed. Jap deal failure. Big move todayEurope market being closed major traders from europe will be absent. This will allow big move in the USA market today. Also Japanese deal failure will sink the market
Market has again somewhat formed a Head-Shoulder pattern. Target for the week 498
$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
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The Stock Market is at a critical turning point this week...In this video, we look at the S&P 500 weekly chart to determine what's next for the overall stock market going forward
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously.
🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot.
🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 21:
No major economic data releases scheduled.
📅 Tuesday, April 22:
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.20 million
Previous: 4.38 million
Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 23:
📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0
Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.
📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.
📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET):
Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: 1.3%
Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 230,000
Previous: 223,000
Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.
📅 Friday, April 25:
📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 76.5
Previous: 77.2
Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Trading Idea: Range Breakout StrategyBias: Neutral-to-Bullish (for breakout)
Setup:
SPY is consolidating between $520–534. A clean break above this zone could signal continuation toward the pivot level at 562.75.
Entry Options:
Aggressive Long:
Buy near current levels (~526), stop-loss below $520, target $534 short-term and $550–562 swing target.
Conservative Long (Breakout):
Buy above $534, on confirmed breakout with volume. Stop-loss just below $528. Target: $548–562.
Bearish Scenario (if breakdown):
If price falls below $520 with strong red volume, potential retest of $511 support and further down toward $500 or $480 (S2).
Short entry below $520, stop-loss at $526, target $511 then $500.
Volume Insight:
Strong green bar at bounce near $480 indicates buyer interest.
Current candles show indecision; breakout or breakdown will likely be volume-driven.
disclaimer: The trade idea presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
