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SPY trade ideas

* SPY : Elliot Waves Bullish Bias *I don't care if you are a bull that believes this is the beginning of price recovery or a bear that believes that this is just a slight retracement to gear up for the major downtrend. I am here to show you different possible scenarios during my Elliot Waves learning process. In the main image of this post, you can see that bulls have completed a 5 impulse Wave 1 and have now completed a ABC flat correction Wave 2. If I'm correct, we are now in the beginning of Wave 3 with a price target 581-587. Now lets take a closer look to where we are: - From the 5 Impulse waves that make W3, we are now in Wave 1 which also has 5 impulses and $570 for its target. - Zooming in closer, you can see that we have just completed the first wave and are now making the second wave with a price target between 561.92(full length of wave A) and 559 (23% Fib LVL). - After this correction wave is completed, I expect us to have a strong momentum towards W3 price target at 566, a quick and sharp correction for W4, and a last impulse towards our first main target that will be testing or possibly explode through $570. - After we hit our first wave target, I do expect price to consolidate for a bit, hopefully holding the 570 level, and prepare for another explosive wave towards 578 and then our 581-587 area target. to complete the this 5 impulse wave. * It is important to remind you that this is the scenario I see happening on the idea that SPY has completed its correction and is now aiming to continue our uptrend towards new ATH. For this to happen, I would prefer to see this Wave 3 blasting through its price target and possibly testing 590 and above, leaving little space for a quick W4 correction and then proceeding to levels near ATH. In the main picture, I highlighted $597 as a level to confirm a bullish this bullish theory. * I will later on post my bearish view on SPY just so you don't get too comfortable. We can't leave your therapist without a job. And at the end of the day, keep in mind that we are out here to observe the market and take advantage of its ups and downs. Manage your risks, ride the waves, and let the gods of the charts dictate where price go.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Caramel0
3
SPY Morning Scalping Game Plan – March 21, 20251. Market Overview * Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market) * Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today) * Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength * Major Support Zones: * $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support * $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%) * $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%) * Major Resistance Zones: * $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance * $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%) * $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%) 2. Expected Market Behavior * Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure) * Key Decision Area: $560 * If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570 * If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550 * GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness: * If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward * If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move 3. Scalping Playbook Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) 📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity * Entry: Below $560 with confirmation * Target 1: $555 * Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues) * Stop Loss: Above $562 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Strong volume on breakdown * Stochastic & MACD trending lower * SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible) 📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity * Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure * Target 1: $565 (gap fill) * Target 2: $570 (call resistance) * Stop Loss: Below $560 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Buyers stepping in at $560 * Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD * Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes 4. Key Indicators to Watch * VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish. * 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down. * Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift. 5. Risk Management * Take profits quickly! Market is volatile. * If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels. * Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences. 6. Summary * Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562. * Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550 * Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570 🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly. Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥
A
by BullBearInsights
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-21-25 : BreakAway PatternToday's Breakaway pattern may show up in the form of an Island Top or break-away to the upside if my analysis is correct. I see the markets stalling over the past few days, potentially setting up a "last breakaway" type of pattern today. I've highlighted how these "last" patterns work where price sets up a peak or trough (in this case a peak) as a last/exhaustion move and how this move can sometimes be very aggressive. I urge traders to stay cautious today as we are moving into a MAJOR REVERSAL weekend. I believe the markets will suddenly change direction next week (early) and will move back into downward trending by March 25-26. Gold and Silver may rally today if the markets move into that Exhaustion Peak pattern. Keep an eye out for Gold/Silver/Bitcoin to potentially rally today and into early next week. Overall, traders should stay very cautious as we move into next week's peak/top/rollover. Don't get too aggressive trying to prepare for the rollover or any potential upside move over the next 3-5+ days. Let the markets show us what and when we need to be aggressive. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
ALong
by BradMatheny
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 21, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇯🇵📉 Japan's Inflation Data Release 📉: Japan will release its inflation figures for February on March 21. Analysts expect a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from January's 4.0% to approximately 3.5%. This data could influence global markets, including the U.S., as it may impact the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Friday, March 21: 🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️: Previous: 592 rigs​ This weekly report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the health of the oil and gas industry. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AShort
by TrendTao
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-20-25 : Flat-Down PatternToday's SPY Cycle pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay somewhat muted in trading range today. I still believe the SPY/QQQ are in a moderate melt-up type of trend - attempting to reach a peak near the end of this week or early next week (see the patterns for March 24, 25, 26). Even though I believe we are struggling to try to move higher, I do believe any failure of the SPY to move above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level would be a technical failure related to the breadth of this pullback. Thus, I believe the markets have at least one more attempt to try to move higher over the next 5+ days before topping and rolling over into a broader downtrend. Gold and Silver moved solidly lower this morning - almost like a Panic type of selling. I believe this is related to the Flat-Down pattern and I believe Gold/Silver will recover fairly quickly. I do believe this is a huge opportunity for Gold/Silver over the next 30+ days. I believe Gold will attempt to move above $3500-3600 before the end of April. BTCUSD rolled higher yesterday by more than $4000 - just like I predicted. Incredible. And, that is another reason why I believe the SPY/QQQ have more room to the upside than we are seeing right now. Remember this is a trader's market. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
ALong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY ... You have to look at things weird to see REALityThis is a half-assed comprehensive look into all that has been going on. The crowd was ready to go ballistic and then magically the guy of the hour roars back and walks into the exact same scenario as '16...all goes calm and no one seems to notice or care about things anymore...That broken down infrastructure...after his Infrastructure Bill...."Bro, dude..it was that deep state yeah, they kept it from happening, he's got it this time, hasn't been taken care of since '16..but he will do it now" --This is actual objectivity and viewed with Boolean> yes or no logic; politics is money just as it's Boolean...did you get paid- yes or no...did something happen- yes or no..so keep your emotion and pre-burned in public schooling (not your fault, just something you were subject to and may, to your core, believe) to the back burner...Think clearly from here: Quick two questions for you to base everyone on foundational flooring.... In 1969, with the computational power of an Alabama-style Data center filled with Ebay A100 Nvidia cards with a hawktuah load applied before inserting into the motherboards/connectors....the US was said to do the unthinkable....the unthinkable...as in, why hasn't any country done it again since then. Advanced GPUs, the greatest supercomputer of China...the newest steels and alloys...the newest temperature regulation fabrics...unthinkable...to this day. I'll let that simmer for a sec... In 1969, Pros, note plurality, picked off, in a moving vehicle, the man who was the last of the true face of America. The unthinkable happened cause he dared to tear the 3-letter crews in charge into a 1000 small pieces, but that did happen...in 1969...in a moving car....with what the Pros I've worked with in my 19 years of Spec Ops and private forces training/instructing call the "T shot". Hit the collarbone/sternum/trachea...for any miss of 2 inch deviation from center shot is lethal in all directions(given 308/Creedmoor variant). Once accomplished, the head is the second shot. Normally on standstill, it is a single man job, but on a moving target it is done with 3 if spotter needed, or two with spotter as second pew-pewer. Unthinkable...but actually done..in 1969...with half ass scopes and no modern tech in way of fragmentation, aka Controlled Chaos rounds. Yet...in 2024, nope...just can't seem to get it done, basically just not possible, don't have the advancements of say, my buddies with 8x infrared, bipod equiped coyote collector pew-pewers from Alabama or Montana...but unthinkable of the same crews to be so sloppy the 2nd time when much more tech,but pure perfection when primitive is used.. Hmm, makes you think for a second...if your instagram or X isn't all you use for mental stimulation. So recap: The Indians hit the Moon with a >>>rover<<<, the Chinese successfully got a >>>rover<<< onto the surface with Indian help after their crash and sharing analytics....and we are having issues getting the carrier rockets to not go ka-gone in mid air. Is rocketry hard...you bet...is aerospace an insane frontier, of course....equal or greater than the deep colossal squid stomping grounds. But people... 1969.. it's all been done before and yet David Attenborough is not doing 4k explorations on the Moon which would literally be the...the...most watch BBC documentary of Human time. But nope...still nothing...simply costs too much and takes too much expertise..."Excuse me Prez...The Z man said the next trove of Billions is going to be arriving when?, his guys are getting impatient on the front lines" This can be easily argued and data presented...I'm just curious as to why a CDC6600 with 3,000,000 Flops could do it, and the current monster in the US...even though China's is much more powerful...is 1,742 petaFlops..or 1,742 x 10 the 15 power while 1969 was 3 x 10 to the 6 Just a thought...and if that chart doesn't sit well with you at first...and you read this far...then look at it again from a different perspective. I know...Ask Deepseek, or Qwen Max how to do it...they should be about 1 million times better as back then. "But goin' to Mars yall"...hmmm The charts you see are just the controlled world reimagined. When a man who is colorblind wears special glasses, the world changes into a paradigm unimaginable since birth. So why fight the chart or what is written above...maybe think someone like me has had way more connections than i care for and yet when sharing, gets put aside for some Insta-ho chick or a dude who has a Spotify podcast...hmm, seems everyone went team red in less than 4 months now that I think of it :) hmm...i wonder
A
by CYQOTEK
SPY....as a Spy, use different detective tools eh?I lost the math papers for those numbers on that fib retrace, but they are an expression of Pi and Fibonacci sequential percentages...So it is basically a cycle thing but with mild patternization (word subject to webster approval)--why Pi--Read below: This is a chart of a simple 7 day time interval...The code for the topping tail and bottoming tail finder is half asses but it works most of the time, so if interested I can create a public script and send it off for everyone. But look at how massive those tails are and how nice the rebounds are, especially in a down trend reversal. The theory came while working out and thinking about the reality of time. Since all time exists and is based on your fingers...look up Babylonian 144 finger counting or base 60...and you will see all that you know is basically a convenient fabrication...or one lucky guess. 12 goes into 360 degrees of a circle for odd example. just add 5 to that circle and you conveniently get 365 days of said y...e...a...r...Great Scott Batman, there are also 12 months in that year!!! see my point example....12 x 5 equals 60...ergo 60 seconds per minute, 60 minutes per hour (3600 seconds per hour...there's that 360 villain again, quick get it Robin), 2x12= 24 hour days, then same 12x5= 60 derives both the number 5 for trading days and the 12 hours you can trade on each of those 5 days....but wait, its plus 1+ 13 hours. 7am to 8 pm, general extended hours to be simple So 13 hours a day X 5 days a week = 65 hours...hmm that's 2 primes for you So instead, lets use 2 more primes cause you know 7 is the days of a week...so lets screw up that math ^ and see what we get lets keep the 12 but add 7, so 84 seconds to a minute, 84 minutes to an hour, 2 x 12 still is 24 hours in a day, so 24 hours x 84 minutes per hour gets you, well 84 x 84= 7056. Then 7056 x 24 gets 169,344 seconds per day vs 86,400 seconds on the 5 day model. Hmmm, that's a difference ratio of 1.96. Almost 2 by adding 2 more days...interesting, So you can see how we can now manage more data in an almost 2 for 1 way, but yet you only just added 2 days...a funny thing happens when you free weight bench and think of funny things. Happened to be two 45s and it go me thinking about degrees and a circle. See a circle can't be fabricated since Pi is universal and there is no way to undo it no matter the metric. Yet time can be almost doubled by adding just 2 more days to a group of days. The circumference of a circle is 31.42 when using 5, but if we add 7 instead, you get 43,98.. 43.98/31.42=1.39974... ergo, you add the same numerical metric to a circle's radius and you barely get a 40% increase...you get just shy of 2 times in time....which one was created versus found. (may be all wrong here, but think about it when you view the chart... So if we imply that our world is mostly 206 bones ( a moving average I use proficiently) and as much time as we could count on our fingers, then is it any wonder that our "Math" only exists in certain fields and is not transferable an new things have to be made up to explain things. Wasn't it said all things come back to a circle for it draws all things in, and it is the only shape that humans innately get perplexed by if it is slightly of, like say someone saying its a full moon, but even though it is a bunch a many miles away, in one glance you can just say "Nope, that edge ain't right". So if Pi can't be screwed with, then wouldn't it make sense that everything else you add to that will always have a fault later. So the short of this is exactly that very last point. When you view the world in the way you were always taught and then something just never stuck with you cause it seemed off, its maybe because its not natural to you and you are more connected with the real surrounding than numbers. Last point: There is exactly, to the measurable degree of astronomical proportions, 3 feet between your open arms and your Gram-Gram's open arms when it comes to giving a hug. But Physics states you will touch when the repelling of the atomic structure of you two meet in the middle....but some math prick draws on the board that it is exactly definitionally impossible to touch her and her since the very middle is impossible to get to, for 1/infinite is said to be anything but 0. Ergo, your Gram-Gram is mathematically infante distance away, but you are like, "Dude she is right here bro"...let that sink in. 7 day charts seem less stupid now, along with 84 minute charts as well??
A
by CYQOTEK
1
SPY Approaching Key Resistance – What’s Next?Technical Analysis (TA) & Key Levels SPY is currently testing the upper trendline resistance around $570, indicating a breakout attempt from the recent downtrend. A successful break above this level could lead to further bullish momentum toward $573 - $583, aligning with the 7.97% CALL Resistance. However, failure to sustain above $570 may trigger a pullback to $560, where put support exists, acting as a critical demand zone. * Immediate Resistance: $570 - $573 * Breakout Target: $583 - $594 * Support Levels: $560, $549 Price Action & Market Structure * A Break of Structure (BOS) is visible at $570, indicating a shift in momentum. * The Change of Character (ChOCH) signaled a trend reversal, with buyers stepping in from the $555 - $560 range. * The MACD is turning bullish, confirming positive momentum. * Stochastic RSI suggests SPY is nearing overbought conditions—watch for potential profit-taking. GEX & Options Sentiment * HVL (High Volume Level) at $570T - Indicates a crucial battleground for price action. * PUT Walls: $560 (highest negative NETGEX) – Strong support where buyers might step in. * CALL Walls: $583, $594 – Targets if momentum sustains. * GEX: Bearish bias with PUTs at 77.3%, indicating hedging pressure remains. Trading Plan & Recommendation 📌 Bullish Setup: * Enter on a confirmed breakout above $570, targeting $573-$583. * Stop-loss: Below $567. 📌 Bearish Setup: * A rejection at $570 can lead to a retest of $560. * Stop-loss: Above $573. Final Thoughts SPY is at a critical inflection point. Watch for volume confirmation and options flow before committing to a direction. A decisive move above $570 opens room for upside, but a rejection could signal downside pressure toward $560. 📢 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly. 🚨
A
by BullBearInsights
QQQ price action breaks through trend line. SPY does not During the current upward swing of the market, i believe QQQ will break back through its 2 year trend line, indicating a bullish market, and a faster momentum upwards. But, because the SPY price action has fallen further than QQQ, I believe the momentum will subside before it is able to break the trend line, therefore when the price action retests the trend line it will fail indicating a bearish market.. This will cause SPY and then QQQ to fall. and the entire market to continue its downward swing... (apologies for my poor drawing skills)
A
by MomentumCrossroads24
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 20, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇨🇳🏦 People's Bank of China (PBOC) Interest Rate Decision 🏦: On March 20, the PBOC will announce its latest interest rate decision. While specific expectations are not detailed, any adjustments could influence global markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. ​ 🇬🇧🏦 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 🏦: The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on March 20. Analysts anticipate that the central bank will maintain the current rate at 4.5%, following a recent reduction. This decision will be closely watched for its implications on the UK economy and global financial markets. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Thursday, March 20: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health. Forecast: 225,000​ Previous: 220,000​ 🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:This index measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district, with positive numbers indicating expansion. Forecast: 10.0​ Previous: 18.1​ 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:This data reflects the annualized number of previously constructed homes sold during the prior month, offering insights into the housing market's strength. Forecast: 3.95 million annualized units​ Previous: 4.08 million annualized units ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AShort
by TrendTao
SPY rally done soon?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline. My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow. This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted. Specifically for SPY, Minor wave 3 was longer than wave 1, which does not place a maximum length on wave 5. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 could be a week or longer. In that time, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 549.68. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. The 5 wave lower pattern for this fifth wave is hypothetical, but a bottom could occur between 525-538. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end. Another possibility that could play out is we rally through the weekend. In this case Intermediate wave 1 possibly ended at the current Minor 3 bottom. This would mean we are in Intermediate wave 2 now. I will evaluate this solution if the rally continues next week.
AShort
by StockSignaler
A Clear Bottom. Headed North? Hey Traders, We're back again with another SPY prediction as the last one we had from Feb. 1st was spot on with the big sell off of 10% from the top. This is shortly after the FOMC news which has interest rates unchanged, however, market sentiment seemed to like it as the moving averages came to a head and we had some serious buying after 2pm. I'd like to point out that there is a few good things happening aside from the market. The astronauts are being rescued, Ukraine and Russia and working on a deal, and inflation rates have been coming down. On a technical note, we broke out of the downward channel and we're breaking above longer timeframe moving averages. I'm going to assume the direction is north, somewhere in the region of 580 as short-term target. Let's see what happens in the next 2 weeks. Thanks for reading!
ALong
by Tsteves
Trading Is Not Gambling : Become A Better Trade Part IOver the last few weeks/months, I've tried to help hundreds of traders learn the difference between trading and gambling. Trading is where you take measured (risk-restricted) attempts to profit from market moves. Gambling is where you let your emotions and GREED overtake your risk management decisions - going to BIG WINS on every trade. I think of gambling in the stock market as a person who continually looks for the big 50% to 150%++ gains on options every day. Someone who will pass up the 20%, 30%, and 40% profits and "let it ride to HERO or ZERO" on most trades. That's not trading. That's flat-out GAMBLING. I'm going to start a new series of training videos to try to help you understand how trading operates and how you need to learn to protect capital while taking strategic opportunities for profits and growth. This is not going to be some dumbed-down example of how to trade. I'm going to try to explain the DOs and DO N'Ts of trading vs. gambling. If you want to be a gambler - then get used to being broke most of the time. I'll work on this video's subsequent parts later today and this week. I hope this helps. At least it is a starting point for what I want to teach all of you. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AEducation
by BradMatheny
27