SPY Major Confluence ZoneSPY has a major upside confluence zone around 625
Looking for a test of this area in the coming weeks.
The level is about 5% away.
Let the melt up begin.
SPY trade ideas
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SPY Trapped in Gamma – Big Move Loading or Just Dealer Chop?
📊 SPY GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Breakdown)
SPY closed at $589.39, and we’re now seeing tight compression between call resistance at 592–595 and heavy put walls down at 586 and 580. Gamma is stacked on both sides — a dealer tug-of-war. Unless we break cleanly above or below this zone, expect whipsaw chop.
GEX Breakdown:
🟩 Call wall at 595, with strong dealer hedging from 592 up to 600.
🟥 Massive negative GEX starting at 586 → 580 → 575, all with dense put walls (–79.88% at PUT Support).
🔻 IVR is 18 and falling – nobody’s paying up for protection yet, but things could move fast once they do.
💡 Options Playbook (Based on GEX):
Neutral-to-Bearish: Fade pops near 592–595, use 595c/600c credit spread or play 585p/575p vertical if 586 breaks.
Bullish Flip: If we break and hold over 595, gamma flips positive fast → play Jul 19 600c or 595/605 spread.
This is a gamma box — price likely stuck 586–595 unless volume shifts dealer hedging or macro breaks out.
🕵️♂️ 1H Price Structure (Swing & Intraday Planning)
SPY 1H still showing weak structure. Multiple CHoCHs and BOSs bouncing around the same zone. Price got rejected from the purple supply at 592, and is now hovering around 589–590, still trapped under a descending trendline.
What stands out:
📉 Structure = lower highs + broken BOS → short-term bearish.
📦 Supply pressure between 590.5–593.9, demand sits down at 573–576.
💣 Bearish readings across BBP, MACD, Stoch — and market breadth thinning.
📈 Swing Bias:
Short under 590–592 → target 586 first, then 580 if momentum kicks in.
Bullish case only resumes on clean break above 595.
📊 Intraday Plan:
Fade pop to 590.5–592 for scalp short (look for lower highs).
Bounce off 586 is playable for scalp long — but keep stops tight.
Until SPY breaks out of this gamma trap, you want to scalp or spread trade with discipline. No need to swing for home runs here.
🧠 Final Thoughts
SPY is pinned between high call resistance and aggressive put support. The GEX box says: "Be patient or get chopped." We need either macro news or volume spike to break the hedging stalemate. IV is low, so positioning ahead of a breakout (via spreads or small directional bets) could pay off — just manage size tightly.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is educational commentary only. Always manage your own risk, and never trade based on someone else’s analysis alone.
SpyGoing over
Spy
Dow jones
NYA
I'll keep this mostly cylicals and broader market.. I've written up a qqq post where I cover most tech indexes..
Let's start with NYSE or TVC:NYA
This covers 3000 stocks.. you ever read about weak breadth in the market? Well when ever this is Lagging behind nasdaq and the market is being dragged along by 6 tech stocks then that's what it means.
Ok so last week when the Spy dumped from 595 to 575 in 2 days, a big part of that was NYA ran into a brick wall here at 20,000 as you can see. Add to that price had formed a rising wedge from the melt up from April lows..
So price rejected at 20,000 on NYA but bounced at its 200sma similar to Spy at 575 which let's you know how connected the 2 are
So now we go into this week here literally 1% away from that same resistance.. Nothing moves NYA and IWM more than the monthly jobs, this is because Job numbers reflect economic strength and a weaker economy will impact Cylicals and small caps the most ..
I don't think we break above that trendline resistance, too much uncertainty around Tariffs, Also here's the weekly RSI on NYA dating back 2yrs
At resistance and divergent... I think we break below the 200sma this week Either with Wed ADP or Friday nonfarm payrolls..
Usually to get below the 200sma it takes a GAP down so that's why I think the action takes place pre market on some data.
TVC:DJI
Dow jones
I'm conflicted a little here.
Price is stuck below trendline resistance and 200ma
But price is also showing a possible bullish H&S inside a Pennant.
Dow jones would only be bullish above 43,000..
As you can see there is not anymore room fawk around.. price will break in either direction come next week..
I'm leaning to the bearish side here but things only get seriously bearish back below 40,000 because that would put it back inside that April box
2 of the sectors that really moves the dow is Financials and Health
Look at this XLF weekly chart
Price is distributing at a 15yr resistance
Zoomed in
Looks like a 2022 repeat about to happen as early as this fall
The position XLF is in makes me doubt Financials will lend a boosting hand here .
XLV - health care on the other hand looks really bullish short term
Daily channel shows a 7% upside to channel top
Daily rsi showing bullish Divergence
So health could offset some of the dow losses but not enough if tech and Financials rollover.
Lastly my number one reason I'm bearish on the dow is DJT or dow jones transportation
Weekly candle stuck below 15,000, trendline resistance , 20 and 200ma.
Seasonality June and July is bullish for DJT because of the traveling but if they can't break above this area in the middle of its best seasonality then nothing is safe
Lastly Spy
ALWAYS KNOW WHERE YOUR MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEFORE YOU TAKE A TRADE!
Me personally I only use 20,50,200.. EMA and SMA.
I say this because the area of spy 572-577 has a powering of moving averages on both weekly and daily time frames
If spy breaks below 570 then we are headed straight for this box.
547-550
Below that and it's death for the bulls.. if it bounces there then we'll see what happens
Weekly RSI same as NYA .. at resistance
So here's a 4 hr chart..
As you can see, rising wedge..
But pay attention to the yellow trendline resistance. That range is 590-584..
A open below 582 and it's a short to 575..
A open above 593 and it's one last long to 600 before the big short
585-592 is choppy and I wouldn't trade it
Like I said earlier, you normally never see price intra day slide below the daily 200sma .. so if they are going to break below 575 this week ( I believe) then they will do it pre market.
I don't think this week will be all doom and gloom. Why? Because of NQ 4hr moneyflow.. it's gotten too oversold so they are likely to have a tech pop this week probably Tues or wed which I think will be your opportunity to position short
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Inflection at Fib Resistance | Dual-Scenario🗓️ June 2, 2025 | 📈 1H Chart | ⚠️ Risk-Off Signal Building?
🔹 Current Price: $592.98
🔺 Key Resistance: $595.54–$597.36 (1.0–1.236 Fib Extension)
🔻 Gap Support: $565.51
🎯 Bullish Target: $604.05–$604.90 (1.382–1.618 Extension)
🔎 Technical Structure:
Trendline Rejection Zone: SPY is pressing into a multi-tap descending resistance. Any failure to break convincingly could invite strong selling.
Fibonacci Overlap: $595–597 aligns with major Fib extensions—potential exhaustion zone.
Gap Unfilled: The $565.51 gap remains untested and could magnet price in the event of a rejection.
Volatility Funnel Forming: Narrowing structure implies imminent directional move.
🌐 Macro Landscape:
Fed Watch: The June 12 FOMC is the next volatility trigger. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in only a ~10% probability of a cut. Hawkish hold expected.
Earnings Season Winds Down: Lack of new fundamental catalysts could increase technical relevance.
Liquidity: Reverse repo balances are falling, suggesting reduced short-term liquidity—typically bearish for risk assets.
Inflation Watch: Sticky Core PCE remains above 2.75% YoY—Fed unlikely to ease aggressively.
📉 Risk Management:
Short Bias Setup:
Entry: $595–597 rejection
Stop: $598.5–599 (Above 1.236 Fib)
Target: $577 (mid-Fib) → $565.51 (gap close)
R:R ~3:1
Bullish Breakout Plan:
Entry: Confirmed breakout + hold above $598
Stop: $593.50
Target: $604–605
R:R ~2.5:1
Volatility Hedge: Consider using VIX calls or SPX put spreads to hedge directional risk around key Fed dates.
🎲 Probabilities:
Scenario Chance Commentary
Pullback to $565 Gap 65% Strong resistance + weakening breadth + macro headwinds
Breakout to $604 35% Requires bullish macro surprise or liquidity-driven melt-up
🔔 Action Plan:
Fade rallies into resistance unless a high-volume breakout confirms. Use stop discipline and hedge exposure into macro events. Stay nimble.
💬 Thoughts? Are we due for a flush or prepping for a face-ripper?
IS SPY & QQQ READY TO MAKE THE NEXT LEG HIGHER?In this video, I cover the weekly chart of AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ to answer the question: are the markets getting ready to make their next leg higher and according to the charts on our weekly timeframe it seems to be the case... watch this video to find out more!
SPY: Swing Trading & Technical Analysis
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY: Bullish Outlook Based on Market StructureETF Strategy: Still Buying for 2025 Growth
I'm continuing to buy SPY and adding other strong ETFs like VEA, QQQ, and TQQQ. The market structure looks solid after the recent bounce, and I’m positioning for continued growth through the rest of 2025. My goal is to close the year with a strong percentage gain.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market in Focus
Investors are closely watching the upcoming May employment report, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2%. These figures will provide insights into the labor market's response to recent economic pressures, including tariff impacts .
🇮🇳 RBI Expected to Cut Rates Amid Low Inflation
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate on June 6, marking the third consecutive reduction. This move aims to support economic growth amid persistent low inflation and global uncertainties .
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 6:
8:30 AM ET – U.S. Employment Report (May):
Analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 125,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. These figures will be critical in assessing the health of the labor market and potential Federal Reserve policy actions .
3:00 PM ET – U.S. Consumer Credit (April):
The Federal Reserve will release data on consumer credit, with forecasts predicting an increase of $10 billion. This report will shed light on consumer borrowing trends and financial health .
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY dowsing roadmap for this weekI've been posting the weekly readings my dowsing has given for SPY's potential price movement the past couple months and it's really interesting.
I go week by week, but am starting to include each day of the week looking forward. I left on the chart the prior notations from those ideas I've posted & you can reference what I had versus what actually occurred.
This week is quite negative. I've had the number around $562-62 coming up for a while, & beyond that, around the $542-48 area as I recall. I don't really get any positive gain over last week's close.
We'll see what happens.
Rally Maybe As of know we in n mans land
have to wait see we break 613 I think they do
why QE behind the scene
have a hedge in case we drop
SPY New All Time Highs IncomingThe #SPY weekly chart is so bullish but don't take my word for it.
Simply look at the weekly bullish crossover that occurred between the 7 week & the 20 Week MA.
The last time this occurred was in Nov 2023 and the markets ripped 19% before having a major 3 week pullback and then another soaring continuation higher.
SPY JUNSPY – June Update
SPY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, with bullish momentum intact.
Price is currently approaching a major resistance at 608, while holding above the key support at 590.
Immediate upside target: 608, followed by potential extension toward the gap fill near 611.
If price fails to hold above 590, downside pressure could lead to a retest of the gaps at 550 and 530, which act as major support zones.
As long as SPY remains above the channel midpoint and above EMA20 (585.77), the bullish structure remains valid.
#SPY #SP500 #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #OptionsFlow #Momentum #Support #Resistance
#globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-30 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern should result in a continued downward price trend in my analysis is accurate. I have seen CRUSH pattern trend upward sometimes. So, please understand I'm reading the chart and pattern as a rolling top type of pattern leading to a CRUSH (downward) price trend today.
I highlight the potential for a FAILED CRUSH (downward) price bar - whereas a reversion back to the upside is a potential. But, I estimate that potential at only 20-25% at this time.
My analysis suggests the breakdown in price will likely continue, and we'll likely see the SPY/QQQ/Bitcoin continue to try to trend downward.
Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly solid Gap-Stall-Revert-Flush pattern that may see Gold attempt to rally back above $3400 today. Silver is currently trading very close to a STDDEV Reversion level, so Silver may not see a big move today (like Gold).
I'm hopeful we start to see a big breakaway move in Gold/Silver today and carry into next week.
My TTScanner algos generated new BUY triggers for GDX, GDXJ, and NUGT yesterday. That's a very good sign we are getting into a BUY/BULLISH mode in metals again.
I got up late today. Somehow, my alarms got turned off.
Happy Friday.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
S&P 500 in EUR - SHORT- in 15 days timeline
- broke the trendline that comes from 2020 to the downside
- retested and could not go above
- may try again and if fails again, then 25% correction likely
Short - SPYPrice testing the neckline - yellow line at ~$588.20
Elliot Wave 12345 ABC: Wave 5 completed. Expect for Wave A
Support line to enter put: ~$582.15
Put option expiration 5/23/25 or 5/27/25
PT1: ~$569.20
PT2: ~555.80
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 4, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 4, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🌐 Markets Rally on Chinese PMI Surprise
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to 50.8 in May, signaling expansion in smaller export-focused factories. Asian markets jumped, lifting U.S. equity futures as investors recalibrated global growth expectations .
📉 U.S. Factory Orders Remain Soft
April’s U.S. Factory Orders fell 0.4%, underscoring persistent weakness in industrial demand amid elevated input costs and trade uncertainty. Declines in durable-goods orders weighed on industrial stocks .
🏦 Fed’s Bowman to Speak on Economic Outlook
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to deliver remarks at 2:00 PM ET, likely emphasizing caution on future rate moves given mixed data. Markets will watch for any shifts in tone regarding inflation risks and labor-market resilience .
🛢️ Oil Prices Slip on Rising U.S. Inventories
U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, according to API data, pressuring oil prices lower and dragging energy shares down as supply concerns outweighed strong demand signals .
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 4:
2:00 PM ET – Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
Remarks on economic outlook and monetary policy, watched for any hints on the Fed’s next moves.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Inverse Head & Shoulders Played Out Clean – Bounce from Buy Just wanted to follow up on the AMEX:SPY idea I published yesterday — this played out exactly as expected 👇🏾
We got that clean pullback right into the 588.50–589.90 buy zone, which aligned perfectly with high-volume support. From there, price reversed and gave us that upside move back toward 593+.
Even more validating: the pattern that formed was a textbook inverse head and shoulders
🔹 Left Shoulder → formed near 586
🔹 Head → at the deeper 585 level
🔹 Right Shoulder → bounced cleanly off the buy zone
🔹 Neckline Break → confirmed the move above 591.12
This is why I always say: have your levels ready and wait for confirmation. No chasing, just execution.
🔑 Buy zone held
📊 Volume-backed support
📈 Continuation in progress
Will continue monitoring for follow-through above 593.46. If bulls hold control, next resistance is near 596–597.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 2–6, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Ahead of June PMI
Markets are bracing for Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 3), with economists forecasting a reading below 50.0, signaling continued factory contraction amid slowing global demand and lingering tariff uncertainty.
🛢️ OPEC+ Meeting to Determine Output Path
On Thursday, OPEC+ convenes to decide production levels for July. Expectations center on a modest output cut extension to support prices, with Brent crude trading near $65/bbl ahead of the decision.
💻 Tech Stocks Eye Semiconductor Legislation
Investors are monitoring Congress’s debate over the Chips Act extension. Senate committee hearings this week could accelerate funding for U.S. chip manufacturing—an upside catalyst for NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , and $MU.
🌐 China’s Caixin PMI Signals Pivot
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June 6) is expected to edge above 50.0, indicating a stabilization in smaller export-focused factories. A better-than-expected print could lift global risk sentiment.
🏢 Fed Officials Remain Dovish
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams speak this week, reiterating that rate hikes are “on pause.” Their remarks should clarify the Fed’s view on inflation cooling and potential rate cuts late 2025.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, June 2:
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April)
Tracks dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods—an early gauge of industrial demand.
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Measures U.S. factory-sector health. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
10:00 AM ET: Construction Spending (April)
Reports monthly change in total construction outlays—key for housing and infrastructure trends.
1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction
Benchmark auction that can shift yield curve and influence $SPY/ SP:SPX positioning.
📅 Wednesday, June 4:
10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (April)
Dollar volume of new orders for manufactured goods. (Repeat for emphasis on industrial slowdown.)
2:00 PM ET: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
Comments on inflation and monetary policy outlook.
📅 Thursday, June 5:
8:30 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (April)
Tracks number of unfilled positions—a barometer of labor-market tightness.
10:00 AM ET: OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting)
Details on production quotas—critical for energy-sector flow.
📅 Friday, June 6:
8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
Monthly change in U.S. employment—core for Fed policy outlook.
8:30 AM ET: Unemployment Rate (May)
Percentage of labor force unemployed—key gauge of labor-market health.
8:30 AM ET: Average Hourly Earnings (May)
Tracks wage trends—important for consumer spending and inflation.
10:00 AM ET: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May, preliminary)
Measures health of China’s smaller export-oriented factories.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Bullish Intraday Patterns Everywhere!SPX had a wonderful intraday hourly chart confirmed breakout. This pattern is bullish and likely will continue higher.
The bulls tomorrow would love to confirm the daily chart breakout and will try to push for that.
SPY/SPX is holding more relative strength than the Q's & IWM which is displaying broad participation.
There are many bullish charts showing accumulation, golden crosses and bullish MA crossovers.
The DXY appears to be wanting to break down to around $97.00 which should yield more upside.
We secured profits today on SPY 594 calls & NVDA 144 calls.
We still remain net long and see the S&P 500 over $6000
Apple, XYZ, AI - are bullish setups were continuing to manage.
$spyyieahhh
Back after getting crushed last 2 months, but hey at least we are having fun 'they say'.
Interesting set of patterns. long term uptrend. Looking at a dip to 563 over next month hopefully.
Bunch of confluences there:
1. High volume at 560 (there's a volume gap right below 585 which would make this a quick move down.
2. Mid point of the long term parallel channel.
3. 61% fib of entire move down.
You would expect next long term target to be the upper test of the channel, 620s. Let's see how this move down, if we have any goes. Yieahhhh
579 gap will be filled.Happens all the time. Chart shows an incredibly large gap. if you lower the deviation on your gap indicator a small gap can appear below this very large gap. i have seen on numerous... NUMEROUS occasions when this gap gets filled and then has a nice rebound(not necessarily sustained). I don't know if it will happen tomorrow, but if there starts to be a sustained selloff in the days ahead i will feel confident that this is the target. 579 is the price. again, it could happen on monday or it could happen next monday. i have no idea what the market is going to do from day to day, but keep this level in mind.
SPY Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 SPY Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Model Consensus: Moderately Bearish into June 6 Expiry
🧠 AI Model Breakdown
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Technical: Price below 10-EMA, RSI cooling, MACD divergence.
Trade: Buy $589P @ $4.72 → PT +50%, SL if SPY > $591
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Technical: Short-term cooling, daily trend still intact.
Trade: Buy $573P @ $0.94 → PT 100%, SL 50%, exit by Wed
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Bias: Neutral
Technical: M5 bearish, daily bullish = mixed.
Trade: No trade today due to inconclusive bias
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Bias: Slightly Bullish
Technical: M5 bullish EMAs, daily MACD bearish
Trade: Buy $590C @ $5.20 → PT +20%, SL −50%
🔹 DeepSeek
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Technical: Breakdown below support, MACD/RSI bearish
Trade: Buy $588P @ $4.27 → PT near $585, SL at $590.50
✅ Consensus Takeaways
4 of 5 models favor bearish or moderately bearish direction
Max Pain at $585 = common gravitational level
Momentum showing weakness, especially intraday
Only Llama sees upside bias; Gemini stays out due to signal conflict
🎯 Recommended Trade Setup
💡 Strategy: Bearish Naked Weekly Put
🔘 Ticker: SPY
📉 Direction: PUT
🎯 Strike: $588
💵 Entry: $4.32 (ask)
🎯 Profit Target: $6.00 (+39%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $2.16 (−50%)
📏 Size: 1 contract
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-06
⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open
📈 Confidence: 70%
⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor
⚖️ Daily uptrend still intact — bounce possible at support
📉 Low VIX = limited volatility expansion (slower premium growth)
🔺 Watch for quick reversals or news spikes above $590 that can hit stop-loss
⌛ Theta ramps midweek — trade must move early
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "SPY",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 588.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 6.00,
"stop_loss": 2.16,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 4.32,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
