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S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈 The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔 🔍 **What’s driving the move?** - 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer. - 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts. - ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations. 📊 **Why It Matters?** - If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀 - A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉 👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?** Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
AMEX:SPYLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
SPY is going up and into the New YearThe SPY will start going up and continue into the New Year for about 14 days which has been the average upward movement in the past few months. I typically use Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as they show more of a directional move as opposed to regular candles. However, since I have used regular candles in the past, I tend to switch back and forth until I get more comfortable with the Heinkin Ashi Candlesticks. You can see my past posts on why I favour the Heinkin Ashi Candlesticks. Typically, you are only supposed to enter after you see 2 green candlesticks of the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks. In the past, there has been an average move of 34 points on the SPY which would make the target point of 614. (There has been an extreme move of 53 points, but I think that is unlikely. That would make the target equal to 633. But that is an extreme point not a likely point.) The Fibonacci number of 1.618 is 624. This is a good second target point. My time target is about a 12 to 14 day move. This would make Jan 9th the time target. If the SPY hits any one of those targets I am out of my trade. Happy Trading!! In the last few days of the month of January or beginning of February, I suspect the market will start to head lower for that one month. But I will address that in my next chart. The market can always change between now and then. Summary: 34 point move= 614 1.618 fib move=624 12 day move = Jan 9th **can be an extreme move of 53 points, but unlikely= 633 There is an online trading conference/summit I try to attend every 3 to 4 months where I have gotten some of my ideas from. The next one is from Jan 13th - 18th called Wealth365 You can register for the event at www.wealth365.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-23: BreakAway PatternToday's pattern is a Break Away pattern. I'm not expecting much to happen just before Christmas, but this is when surprises may happen. If you have not already protected your capital - now is the time to do it (almost too late at this point). You should be prepared for anything that happens and move into a position of safety related to the holidays. Remember, the markets will always be here. Get through the holidays and get busy trying to enjoy your life. I suspect the markets will stay very flat over the next 3 to 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY to $650 in January?SPY recently retraced to the bottom of our Magic Linear Regression Channel with a large 3%+ move. Today, there was a nice bounce bounce from the channel bottom, back up to yesterday's open. So, what's next for SPY. The Magic Linear Regression Channel shows upside potential to it's baseline back at its recent all-time highs, and the potential for a higher move to the $630-$650 range. However, there is also the potential for it to fall back through the channel. Since we've been in a bull market for awhile now, that channel break would have to happen more definitively in order for that to be a likely scenario. We've recently introduced the Magic Candles PRO indicator, which shows high volume candles that have very little price movement. When paired with the Magic Linear Regression Channel on a 1 day chart, it tends to show reversals at key levels on the Magic Linear Regression Channel. However, because we had a large move down on Weds, Dec. 17th 2024, and a large move up on Friday, Dec. 20th 2024 and ended up at the open of Thurs., Dec. 18th 2024, we get a doji on the 2 day chart that shows a massive "volume hammer" signal not seen since 2019, 5 years ago. This signals that we are on the verge of a large sustained move. Again, because we've been in a bull market, and there aren't any very strong signs that it is over, we suspect that the large sustained move will be to the upside, because of the signal. If the price breaks down out of the channel, then we'll be in for a nice downward ride. Until that happens, though, we're bullish as we approach the all-time high again, and all the way to the $630-$650 range.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mwrightinc
1
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) About To Go Down - TIMBER!📉 Overview: The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions. 📊 Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Count: SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle. Bearish Wedge Breakout: Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal. Momentum Indicators: - RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs. - MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative. Fibonacci Targets: - Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline). - Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension). - Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension). 🌐 Macro Sentiment: Interest Rate Concerns: Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated. Economic Slowdown: Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure. Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends: End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions. ⚡ Trade Plan: - Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off). - Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance. Targets: - Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward). - Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection). 🔍 Considerations: Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation. Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels. Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
AMEX:SPYShort
by MrStockWhale
1
$SPY correction incoming? Back below $550AMEX:SPY is putting in a short term top here. All of the signs are there if you know what to look at. For example, NASDAQ:TLT up 2% today. AMEX:SPY sold off throughout the day. Crypto selling off. Volatility starting to react at the bottom of the range. Dollar continuing to rise. The chart also is failing at resistance. I could see one more attempt at a move higher, and if we fail at $602 or lower and fall back below $597, it'll be extremely bearish and the confidence in this move playing out strengthens. I think we'll see $527-531 over the next couple of weeks. Playing the move through CBOE:UVXY calls.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
9
Spy Short Well Well Guys, Yes I'm going to continue to go short especially this week with the big big decision of rate cuts Wednesday, if not this Friday or Monday 600 target I'm definitely out of the short position for now!! The New Narrative Trend by the way, is Insane how the results have been so far if you want more info content is out right now about it, generational wealth will be made!! And Yes you can still get in!!! Goodluck Traders and I will Follow Up With Spy on Tuesday Spy under falls under 605 602 for sure that's when we should see blood in the streets QQQ forget about it its A short 1st target $528
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
13
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again. I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward. Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening. I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend. Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now. Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern. $95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
SPY to $585?: EOY Price TargetUsing the Magic Linear Regression Channel on TradingView.com we look at some possible scenarios for SPY price movement. A shorter term regression channel shows SPY at the top of the channel and rejecting it today - even with more buyers than sellers in the TradingView Volume Footprint chart view. The bottom of the channel converges with last pivot low near $584. It could conceivable go lower, but with lower volume likely during the holiday season, it would seem less likely for it to make any more big moves barring some major unexpected event.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mwrightinc
7
S&P 500 Reached The Top - Correction UnderwayThe S&P 500 looks to have reached a significant top - being rejected from the 1:1 Fibonacci extension on the Weekly Timeframe. With other confluence like the rising wedge, high weekly RSI levels, and a decreasing momentum on the MACD, all things point downwards for the stock market in 2025. The next target would be the blue zone where a potential chance for reversal could occur. A top in the S&P 500 could also signal tops forming on major stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , etc. so keep a lookout.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MrStockWhale
SPY at a Critical Juncture: Will it Reversal or More Pain Ahead?In the past two days, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has experienced a pronounced downturn, raising critical questions about the next directional move. Today's price action indicates a pivotal moment, with the market consolidating near a key support level at $584. The question remains: is this a pause before a bounce, or a precursor to further downside? This detailed analysis breaks down SPY's current technical setup, provides actionable trade levels, and offers insights into potential scenarios for tomorrow's session. Let’s dive into the charts and indicators to uncover opportunities. Technical Market Trend Analysis 1. Downtrend Confirmation * Price Structure: SPY has formed consistent lower highs and lower lows over the past two sessions, clearly defining a downtrend. The breach of the critical $587 support level early in today’s session amplified selling pressure. * Trendlines: A descending channel on the hourly chart below further confirms bearish control, with price respecting the upper boundary of the channel as resistance. 2. Volume Dynamics * Selling Pressure: Noticeable volume spikes during the declines highlight strong participation by sellers. * Reduced Buying Interest: Rebounds were marked by lower volume, indicating a lack of commitment from buyers. Key Levels to Watch Support Levels 1. $584: The current zone where price consolidates. This is the first line of defense for bulls. 2. $580: Major gamma exposure support level (GEX7). Breaching this level could accelerate downside momentum toward $575. Resistance Levels 1. $587: Immediate resistance. A reclaim of this level would signal strength and could trigger short covering. 2. $590: Aligned with gamma resistance and psychological significance, this is the next target for a bullish breakout. Indicators in Play EMA Analysis * The 9 EMA and 21 EMA are both sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance levels. This reinforces the short-term bearish trend. MACD * The hourly MACD shows bearish momentum, with a widening histogram and a negative crossover. However, a slight tapering in the histogram near the end of the session hints at potential consolidation or a reversal attempt. Options Oscillator and GEX Insights * Gamma Levels: * $584: Current pivot, showing strong put positioning. * $580: Heavy put support; any break below this would likely see rapid downside. * $590: Significant call resistance; a breakout above would indicate a shift in sentiment. * Sentiment: Dominance of 102.7% puts reflects bearish sentiment in the options market. Trading Strategy Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup 1. Entry: Enter long above $587 with confirmation of strong volume. 2. Target: $590 for the first target, $593 for the second. 3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585 to minimize risk. 4. Justification: * Reclaiming $587 would signal a potential reversal or at least a relief rally. * $590 aligns with gamma resistance, offering a logical profit target. Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Setup 1. Entry: Short below $584 with increasing sell volume. 2. Target: $580 for the first target, $575 for the second. 3. Stop-Loss: Place stops at $585.50 to cap risk. 4. Justification: * A breakdown below $584 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. * Heavy put support at $580 would likely provide the next pause point. Market Outlook While the short-term trend is bearish, the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Tomorrow’s session will likely determine whether SPY bounces from oversold conditions or continues its descent. Watch for high-impact news and volume trends to validate directional moves. Conclusion SPY’s price action reflects a decisive moment. Both bulls and bears have clear opportunities depending on how the key levels at $584 and $587 play out. Use disciplined risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12/24/2024 : Rally111Please pay attention to this video. Today, I share some vital data related to how I plan on helping all of you become better traders in 2025 and what you need to do to try to improve your own trading results. Trading is not gambling. It is not about throwing money at trends and hoping to catch a few winners. Trading is about trying to time market trends when the best opportunities are ready for profits - then getting out of those opportunities as profits start to mature. Trading is about honing your skills to be able to target 35% to 55% or more every 15 to 25+ days. If you can do that efficiently every 15 to 25+ days, then you are SET. You can turn $1000 into more than $300k in less than a year trading like that. Then, you can turn that $300k into more than $10 million in another year. Can you imagine that happening to you and your family? It is all about having the right tools, gaining proper knowledge and experience, and putting that to practice/use. And that is what I've been trying to teach you for the past 6+ months - the knowledge and skills to be able to see/time the biggest market moves. I know many of you have followed me for many months. I appreciate all of you. Now, as we close out 2024, let's make a commitment to really focus on gaining the success we desire for ourselves and our families so we can enjoy 2025 as a better year. I challenge all of you to a straightforward goal: Learn, Practice, Gain experience, and Execute better trades so you can grow your accounts and move into the "Trader Life" you have always desired. Trade 2-4 times a day (when opportunity strikes) and try to grow your account by 35 to 55% every 15 to 25 days. That's all it takes. Are you ready? Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
12/22/24 Weekly Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Huge sell off across the board from FOMC news on Wednesday. SPY sold off down through previous Broadening Formation range reclaiming previous downside pivot just below 684. So with that in mind, we expand out of the BF below that pivotal low, or come back through range above it. With SPY currently setup to potentially go 3-2 daily, we look to see whether fridays high or low gets taken out. Being above the pivot at 684, we are looking to come back through that BF range and make new ATHs as of now. Of course this can all change depending on whether our W is green or red, but for now we are closer to making a daily HH than a LL. With Christmas being this week, the markets close 2 hours early on Tuesday, and re open on Thursday. Being a short week like this, we need to be extra cautious as there will be lower than normal volume, and simply less time for the weekly candle to form, so expectations on a large move this week as most seem to be predicting, may not happen for the prior reasons. Personally will not be trading Tuesday and possibly not at all this week if I don't see absolute A+ setups. Watchlist: Bullish: NASDAQ:NVDA - Pot. 1-3-2U Daily to trigger failed 2D hammer week. Swept BF lows this past week. Looking to come back through range. This is a big name for the markets, so I expect that if the markets are recovering, this will lead the way or follow with it NASDAQ:MU - 2-2U reversal potential daily to target gap fill from ER. We took out weekly BF mag on friday, hitting exhaustion levels after finally escaping the motherbar it was stuck in for the last 11 weeks. One side gets toasted, magnitude is hit for W and M. All the ingredients for a big recovery. Only issue is being stuck in last weeks range NASDAQ:PLTR - potential 3-2D for a simultaneous weekly 2-1-2U trigger. Nuclear green on all TFs. Slight room to go to target ATH again, but mainly looking for the weekly inside up measured move, meaning if we go 2-1-2U, we can expect the same move up as we had in the week prior to last weeks inside bar week. Cruise Lines: NYSE:CCL + NYSE:NCLH Weekly hammers. NYSE:RCL Not a clean weekly AS, but similar daily to other names in the industry. Bearish: NASDAQ:TSLA - 3-1 4Hr to trigger MoMo shooter Daily to trigger Shooter Weekly 2-2. Daily PMG to target from ATH Exhaustion. (Big green day for most names Friday, why was TSLA so bearish with such relative strength lately?) NASDAQ:AVGO - Shooter 2U Day to trigger 2-2 shooter week. Huge gap up from earnings. Looking to attack the gap. NYSE:KO - MoMo Shooter 2D day to trigger 2-1-2D week. Having issues making range lately, but daily BF is targeting lower still, and weekly 2-2d has yet to be negated. Inside week will confirm more downside to target our BF magnitudes on the D and W, or it will be negated by a 2U week. Simple plan here. Short under prev week low, exit if back above. NYSE:UBER - MoMo shooter 2d Weekly to reconfirm M 2D and Q 2U going 3. Check Monthly for the BF. Wanna see continuation lower to Q mag at 54.84. No daily AS but 3-1 4HR. May be a slower mover on the list. Basing all my decisions on the weekly as the momo shooter should simply just trigger and work
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
SPY Technical Analysis PredictionThis chart is a daily timeframe for SPY (S&P 500 ETF), displaying multiple indicators such as pivot points, dark pool levels, trendlines, moving averages, and volume. The current market structure suggests a potential trend transition phase, with price currently consolidating near critical support levels. Key Observations: 1. Trend Structure: The long-term uptrend is still intact, supported by the green ascending trendline originating from prior lows. The recent pullback breached the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, which implies short-term bearish momentum. However, price is consolidating near the S1 pivot level (579.18), suggesting possible support. Higher Highs (HH) were achieved earlier in the trend, but the failure to maintain levels near the R1 pivot (614.64) indicates resistance and profit-taking. 2. Support and Resistance: Resistance Zones: 600-604: A psychological resistance level and the approximate region of the 8 EMA. 609.07: The previous swing high and a critical level for a bullish continuation. R1 (614.64): A strong pivot resistance level. Support Zones: Immediate support at S1 (579.18), which aligns with current consolidation. Lower supports are seen at S2 (555.80), S3 (543.72), and the ascending green trendline (~524). Dark pool levels between 513.20 - 522.91 represent critical institutional zones, which may act as strong support. 3. Volume Profile: Significant volume spike on the most recent red candle indicates institutional activity. If price remains above key supports (S1, S2), this could suggest accumulation. A breakdown below S1 would imply further distribution and downside. 4. Dark Pool Levels: Dark pool prints at 522.91, 518.92, and 513.20 mark critical price levels for institutional interest. A break into these levels would indicate bearish momentum but could offer significant buying opportunities near those zones. Trade Setup: Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (579.18) Trigger: A strong bounce off S1 with price reclaiming the 8 EMA (currently near 600) would confirm bullish momentum. Profit Targets: 595-600: The immediate resistance zone and EMA alignment. 609.07: The swing high from earlier in December. 614.64 (R1): A longer-term target at the pivot resistance. Stop-Loss: Below 575, as this invalidates the bullish setup. Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (579.18) Trigger: A break below S1 with high volume and price failing to reclaim the 8 EMA would confirm bearish continuation. Profit Targets: 565.16: The prior swing low and intermediate support. 555.80 (S2): A strong pivot support level. 543.72 (S3): A deeper downside target. Stop-Loss: Above 595, as it would indicate a reversal back above resistance. Scenario 3: Long-Term Reversal Near Dark Pool Levels If price falls into the dark pool zones (522.91-513.20), this could offer significant long-term buying opportunities, especially near the ascending green trendline (~524). Final Thoughts: Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near S1 requires close monitoring for either a bullish reversal or a bearish breakdown. Volume and price action at the EMAs and pivot levels will be crucial indicators. Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline and dark pool levels represent strong support zones, offering potential for accumulation if prices drop further.
AMEX:SPYLong
by thedarkpooltrader
$SPY Trade Analysis DarkPoolsThis chart appears to be analyzing the SPY ETF (S&P 500 ETF Trust) on a 30-minute timeframe, with various levels marked for support, resistance, trendlines, and potential targets. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis based on what is visible in the chart: Trend Analysis: Downtrend Observed: The red trendline indicates a clear lower highs (LH) pattern, suggesting a bearish structure. The green trendline highlights a previous descending support line, which was broken, followed by a recovery. Current Context: SPY is below the red trendline, which is acting as resistance. The price is hovering near the EMA cluster (moving averages such as 8 EMA and 21 EMA), indicating indecision or consolidation. Key Levels: Resistance Zones: 595.23 to 599.31: This range aligns with previous pivot points and overlaps with a lower high (LH), making it a significant resistance area. 604.37 (DP): A dark pool level from 12/18 indicates where institutional activity occurred. Breaking this level could signal bullish momentum. Support Zones: 590.96 to 586.50: Price currently sits above this cluster, suggesting short-term support. 578.93 (90 SMA): The 90 SMA acts as a longer-term support level. Potential Trade Ideas: Bullish Scenario: Entry: Above 595.23, ideally with a strong close above the red trendline. Targets: T1: 597.63 T2: 599.31 T3: 604.37 Stop Loss: Below 593.87, the most recent support level. Bearish Scenario: Entry: Below 586.50, confirming a breakdown below immediate support. Targets: T1: 585.00 T2: 580.00 T3: 578.93 Stop Loss: Above 588.00, invalidating the breakdown. Indicators: EMA Strategy: Watch for a cross of the shorter EMA (e.g., 8 EMA) below the longer EMA (e.g., 21 EMA) for bearish confirmation, or vice versa for bullish momentum. Volume Confirmation: Increased volume at breakout levels strengthens the validity of the move. Overall Outlook: The current price action is consolidating between 595.23 (resistance) and 586.50 (support). This range-bound behavior may continue until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs. A move above the red trend-line could suggest a bullish reversal, while a break below the lower support zone would confirm bearish continuation. Why the 6:15 Candle is Key: Liquidity Shift: Around 6:15 a.m. EST, pre-market trading often experiences a shift in liquidity as larger institutional traders and automated systems begin positioning themselves ahead of the regular market open. This creates a noticeable increase in volume or volatility. Reaction to Overnight News: By this time, many traders have processed overnight news, including international market developments, economic data, or corporate announcements. The 6:15 candle often represents the market’s collective sentiment to these inputs. Early Dark Pool & Futures Activity: Institutional players and hedge funds might act on dark pool or futures activity signals around this time. For instance, the SPY chart you provided shows interest in identifying areas that coincide with pre-market setups for further price movement. Key Levels for the Day: The high and low of the 6:15 candle in pre-market trading are frequently used by day traders as pivot points. These levels often act as intraday support or resistance, with price reacting around these zones during the regular trading session. Interpreting the 6:15 Candle in Your Chart: Looking at your chart: The 6:15 candle seems to be sitting just below key resistance at 591.14. This candle’s high and low can serve as short-term levels: High Break: A break above the 6:15 high signals bullish momentum. Low Break: A move below the 6:15 low indicates bearish pressure. For SPY, this candle is important because it often sets the tone for the first trading hour of the day. How to Use the 6:15 Candle: Range Breakout Strategy: Mark the high and low of the 6:15 candle. Use these as breakout or breakdown levels for the regular session. Pre-Market High/Low Alignment: If the 6:15 candle aligns with pre-market highs or lows, it reinforces the importance of those levels. Volume Confirmation: Check if the 6:15 candle has significant volume compared to previous candles. A spike in volume confirms institutional interest. EMA Relationship: Notice if the 6:15 candle is above or below key moving averages like the 8 EMA or 15 EMA. This gives insight into short-term sentiment. In Summary: The 6:15 pre-market candle acts as a pivotal reference point: High and low levels often dictate intraday trading strategies. It reflects liquidity shifts, news reactions, and institutional activity. Use it alongside volume, EMAs, and resistance/support zones for more accurate predictions.
AMEX:SPY
by thedarkpooltrader
2024 Santa Rally and More - Up/Down/SidewaysIt's that time of year again. The final trading weeks of 2024 and the technical "Santa Rally" (trading through Christmas and New Year's) is upon us. Unfortunately the FED put a bit of a cap on the extremely optimistic and borderline euphoria that was bubbling over going into the FOMC Rate Decision. 100 bps of cuts, yet the US10Y (10 year yield) has virtually moved in the exact opposite direction. Inflation is now a concern and this is a big reason for the FED's "hawkish cut" in December. The market will have to figure out how 1-2 cuts in 2025 looks compared to 4-6 cuts that was anticipated. I don't think the 1 day FED move is enough of a correction to justify loading up on longs, so I'm looking for 200 EMA tests and better prices all around. If I don't get them, I suppose I'll just wait longer :) Happy Holidays to everyone Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones. Market Structure Analysis * Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction. * Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase. * Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears. Supply and Demand Zones * Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce). * Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts). Order Blocks and Support/Resistance * Key Resistance: * $591: A psychological and structural level. * $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level. * Key Support: * $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572. * $567: A crucial lower-level support. Key Indicators * EMA: * 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum. * MACD: * Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative. * RSI: * Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce. Options Flow and GEX * Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong. * Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward. * Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum. Scalping vs. Swing Outlook * Scalping: * Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578. * Swing Trading: * Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590. Actionable Suggestions 1. Short-Term Bullish: * Entry: Near $580 support. * Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance. * Stop-Loss: Below $578. 2. Short-Term Bearish: * Entry: On rejection at $590. * Exit: Target $580 or lower. * Stop-Loss: Above $592. Conclusion SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Options - Bull & Bear Christmas EditionAMEX:SPY AMEX:SPY Trend continuation is still bullish long-term. We are using this bottom white trendline as a key pivot for these options and the larger move up or down. With these trades, we use 15-30 minutes candle CLOSES above or below support for confirmation $610 CALL 1/6 Entry: Add at support tests off trendline Targets: $600, $604.25, $607, All-time highs $575 PUT 1/6 Entry: Rejection under $595 AND trendline Targets: $583.56, $580.89, $575, $567
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois