$SPY: Composite Sub-Cycles (Recursive)Research Notes Documenting Commonality
I’ve identified several bar patterns that formed following significant historical declines. They share notable similarities, as if suggesting that the magnitude of past major moves sets the structure of subsequent groups of sub-cycles (which I call "building blocks" sometimes).
I placed them in respect to current scaling laws so the method of exclusion can be applied in order to familiarize with typical "terrain" of price dynamics at such phase. Documenting them because a direct study is the most effective approach to uncovering the essence of recursive patterns.
Some of the bar patterns are lowered to highlight temporal aspect which matters more than price scale.
SPY trade ideas
SpyBig week here. Rarely do you get big banks and big tech earnings on the same week..
Jpm, Goldman sach, and JNJ are dow jones heavy weights.
This is important because I think Dow will close that gap at 44,850 and most likely retest ATH at around 45,000.
As long as dow closes above 44,200 Monday, they will do this move
Now logically you have to ask yourself, If Dow jones moves 800pts or 2% what will spy do?
Well unless Nasdaq gives it all up early in the week then Spy will grind higher..
NASDAQ:QQQ
2hour chart is mimicking
June's price action
Even similar bearish Divergence on RSI
So will tech Roll over this week?
TSM and NFLX both reporting..
Qqq 30min price action, as long as price holds above 548.50 I wouldn't short this at all
As you can see with the yellow channel price will be range trading between 551-555. Over 558 and 560 comes.. below 548 and 544 comes.
This is actionable trading, I know some of you want a bigger picture on the short side but until we break below the 20sma I really don't like going full bear at the beginning of earning season...
Yes, alot of things are flashing red signaling a major correction is looming , for Example here's XLC. This is the sector of NASDAQ:NFLX and NASDAQ:META
Here's the weekly chart and RSI
Very bearish bigger picture here, I could easily see this sector and the big names inside it going back to April lows
But then You have AMEX:XLY
The sector of NASDAQ:AMZN and NASDAQ:TSLA
Nothing is bearish Herr and as long as it holds 217 they are going to push this back to ATH.
NASDAQ:AMZN chart is completely identical
So let's say NFLX and Meta have down days similar to last Friday but Amzn and Tsla pumps then you will get a small pullback unless the chipsector dumps also 😉. Remember there's always a bull in the market, they'll just rotate into something less overbought..
Only time you really see majority selling off is when there is a catalyst (Carry trade, tariffs) or Seasonality (March, Sept)..
So I'm bearish on Chips NASDAQ:SMH and I'm bearish on AMEX:XLC but you have to be selective..
I wouldn't short
NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:GOOGL
NASDAQ:AAPL
Those stocks will likely outperform this Quarter.
As far as the banks earnings , even if they pop, I think this will be a sell the news event and this sector AMEX:XLF (Big banks) is headed for a massive correction
The Small banks AMEX:KRE
Have almost completed their V shape recovery and will most likely correct after this week
Daily technicals are overbought similar to IWM but the weekly is where you see caution
Top of weekly Bollingerband always leads to a major sell the following week
AMEX:SPY
15min chart
I'm bullish early in the week, I think they will buy the dip ahead of earnings so if they open up near Friday's low or the 15min 200sma they could buy it there, below 621 and they will go for the gap close at 620; that will be another dip buy opportunity . Stop loss 619.00
Below 619.00 and they have a gap left open at 614.84 to close. Stop loss 15min 200ma
Trade Idea of the week is NASDAQ:GOOGL
Bullish ascending triangle forming under 182.00 resistance.. Price may breakout this week
4hour chart Friday finished with a Shooting star so we could start the week with a pullback but I think googl will hold 177.00 support and that's a good entry for a long.. or wait for conformation which would be a break above 182.00..
So 177 or 182 is my entry
Googl is only bearish below 172.00 or 200ma
Personal opinion This administration Has promised 200 trade deals and have gotten only 3 so far. As we get closer and closer to August investors will get nervous and I think we will see another major sell! He's has kicked the tariff can down the road as far as it can go and still these countries are calling his bluff. Becareful because I think the next time trump won't fold
SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown. TA for July 14SPY: Bearish Gamma Pin Threatens Breakdown – What to Watch This Week 🧨
🔸 GEX-Based Options Sentiment (Tanuki GEX Zone)
* GEX Summary:
* Highest Call Wall (Resistance): 625–628 → strong resistance zone.
* Highest Put Wall (Support): 618 → major gamma defense line.
* GEX Flip Zone / NETGEX Support: around 620, where negative gamma begins accelerating downside moves.
* Current GEX Bias: Bearish
* GEX: 🔴
* IVR: 9.8 (very low)
* PUTs %: 51.1% (risk off bias)
* Call walls stack above, forming a clear ceiling.
* Interpretation & Options Strategy:
* As long as SPY trades below 625, the call resistance stack and bearish gamma exposure favor PUT buyers.
* Breakdown below 620 may trigger an acceleration to 617 and even 615 where deeper PUT walls exist.
* Avoid calls until SPY reclaims and holds 626.88+.
* ✅ Suggested Options Play (Bearish Bias):
* PUT 620p / 618p, 0DTE–2DTE if under 623.
* Stop if price holds and reclaims 625.50+ with volume.
🟦 1H Chart Analysis – Price Action, SMC, and Trade Setups
* Market Structure:
* After the recent BOS, price formed a tight rising wedge, then broke CHOCH and now sits inside a retest box.
* This shows distribution behavior and vulnerability to breakdown.
* A clear CHOCH + BOS sequence is already completed on the 1H.
* Current Range & Zones:
* Consolidation Box: 621.50–625.50
* Trendline Support (lower channel): 621–620
* Demand Zone (H1): 617–618
* Critical Liquidity Below: 615–613.50
* Trade Setup – Scalp/Swing View:
Bearish Scenario (More Likely):
* 🔻 Entry: Under 623 with confirmation
* 📉 Target 1: 620
* 📉 Target 2: 617.50
* ❌ SL: 625.50
* 📈 Optional hedge/reversal: Flip long if 626.88 reclaims (very aggressive).
* Bullish Scenario (Low Probability unless reclaim):
* ✅ Entry: Above 627
* 🎯 Target 1: 629–630
* ❌ SL: Below 625
🧠 Final Thoughts:
* SPY is currently sitting in a gamma trap zone, where it’s pinned between major put support (620) and call resistance (625+).
* If price slips below 620, gamma forces could rapidly drive it to 617–615 zone.
* Until we see strength above 626.88, the path of least resistance remains down.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage risk properly before trading.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚀 Tech & EV Stocks in Focus Ahead of Earnings
Futures were quiet ahead of Tuesday’s open, but key movers included Astera Labs (+19%), Alphabet (+2.7%), Netflix +2%, and Robinhood –4.9% after being passed over for the S&P 500. Investors are positioning ahead of major tech and EV earnings this week — including Tesla, Alphabet, Lockheed Martin, Coca‑Cola, and Honeywell
📣 Powell Speech Eyed for Rate Clues
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 8:30 AM ET today at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference in D.C. Markets will be watching for any indications on future interest rate direction
🌏 Japan’s Political Shift Has Little Market Impact
Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper-house majority over the weekend, but markets remained stable as it was largely expected. The yen held steady, and Asian equities stayed calm amid the holiday—focus remains on upcoming corporate earnings
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, July 22:
8:30 AM ET – Powell Speech: Key address at the bank regulation conference. Tone and forward guidance may sway bond and equity markets.
After Market Close – Alphabet & Tesla Earnings: Heavyweights due today—market attention will track revenue guidance, especially on advertising, EV demand, and AI.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice—consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #tech #Fed #earnings #AI #infrastructure #volatility
SPY Macro Wave Outlook – Bullish Fifth Wave into AI Supercy📈 SPY Macro Wave Outlook – Bullish Fifth Wave into AI Supercycle?
🧠 WaverVanir DSS | VolanX Protocol | Institutional AI Alignment
The SPY rally appears to be unfolding within a 5-wave macro impulse, currently inside Wave (5) targeting the 670–787 zone, depending on macro alignment and Fed behavior. This structure converges with long-term Fibonacci clusters and macro transition signals.
🔍 Thesis:
Wave (5) in Progress – Next resistance seen at ~670.33, followed by long-term targets near 787.19.
Pullback Scenario – A temporary correction into the 597–600 range is possible before further upside.
Structure Validity – Channel and Fibonacci extensions confirm bullish continuation unless macro conditions deteriorate sharply.
🧠 Macro Alignment Required:
Fed Pivot Late 2025 → Probability: 60%
Earnings Growth Led by AI → 11% projected for S&P500 (GS)
Productivity > Consumption → AI-led industries showing 5%+ labor productivity growth (Dallas Fed)
Low Inflation Reacceleration Risk → Core PCE stabilization key
⚠️ Risk Matrix:
Macro Risk Probability Notes
Fed Hawkish Reversal 30% Data-dependent but unlikely unless inflation re-flares
AI Concentration Shock 25% Tech-heavy rally, breadth remains a concern
Valuation Compression 20% Shiller CAPE near 37
Trade War Reignition 15% Tariff risk remains a geopolitical tail
🎯 Target Zones:
Near-term: 670.33 (Wave 5 peak)
Medium-term: 714–787 (Fib clusters)
Correction Zone: 597–600, invalidation below 525
The AI economy is accelerating—productivity is now outpacing consumption in several sectors. This macro regime shift could be the foundation for the next secular bull wave.
🔺 Powered by VolanX Protocol
⚠️ Not financial advice. Educational chart generated by institutional DSS models.
#SPY #VolanX #WaverVanir #ElliottWave #MacroTrading #AIProductivity #Fibonacci #FedPivot #USEquities #TradingSignals #SmartMoneyConcepts #InstitutionalStrategy #AIInvesting #SP500
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 16, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 Record Bullish Sentiment Signals Rotation
Bank of America reports the most bullish fund-manager sentiment since February. With 81% expecting one or two Fed rate cuts this year, the group sees a rotation strategy replacing outright selling, with investors tipping toward sector shifts over wholesale exits
⚠️ Trump’s Fed Attacks Stir Policy Concerns
President Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Powell—calling for steep rate cuts and threatening removal—has raised market alarms over the central bank’s independence. Analysts warn such interference could destabilize confidence in U.S. monetary policy
🏦 Banks Prepare for Earnings Surge
Major U.S. banks are expected to report strong Q2 results this week. Enhanced trading and investment banking revenues are forecasted to offset economic uncertainties tied to tariffs
📡 Nvidia CEO to Visit Beijing
Jensen Huang is set to hold a high-profile media briefing in Beijing on July 16, signaling continued emphasis on China for Nvidia despite U.S. export restrictions—potentially a key narrative for tech markets
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Wednesday, July 16:
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (June)
Gauges wholesale inflation pressures; June expected +0.2% MoM vs May’s +0.1%
9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (June)
Monitors factory and utilities output and usage rates—key for industrial-sector health
Jensen Huang in Beijing
Nvidia CEO to lead media briefing in Beijing—a potential market mover for chipmaking and AI sectors
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This info is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #inflation #Fed #tech #industrial #PPI
SPY: Short Signal Explained
SPY
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry - 623.61
Sl - 633.09
Tp - 606.99
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Select Your Trading Time
There’s an old saying:
“Plan your trade, and trade your plan.”
But I want to add something even more important:
“Pick your time to trade.”
---
💰 The Market Is Not Your ATM
Everyone enters trading with one goal: make money.
Some even think of the market as an ATM — pull the handle, cash comes out.
But the truth is:
❌ The market doesn’t care about your goals
❌ It won’t move just because you need to make money today
This is a brutal game. And you don’t control the clock.
---
⚠️ When You Force a Trade...
Too many traders say:
“I have to make money today.”
“I need to hit $X this week.”
“I just took a loss, I must come back now.”
That kind of thinking leads to:
Bad entries
Overtrading
Emotional decisions
Big losses
❗ Trading success doesn’t come from forcing outcomes — it comes from waiting for the right moments.
---
🧠 What Happens on Low-Volatility Days
Let’s take today as an example.
SPY moved in a 2-point range all day.
No momentum, no trend, just chop.
Some traders:
Ran one QS signal after another
Forced trades just to feel busy
Got chopped up by fast reversals
Then blamed the signals
But here’s the truth:
AI or not , you can’t expect any long-volatility trade to work when the market is dead still.
The only winners on days like today? Market makers and options sellers.
---
❓ Why Trade at All on a Day Like This?
If the market isn’t offering opportunity,
Why force it? Why chase trades? Why burn your energy?
The smarter move is:
Sit out
Observe
Wait for better setups
Preserve your mental and financial capital
---
🔄 Recovery? Yes — But on Your Terms
Some traders lose money and say:
“I need to make it back today.”
That’s emotional revenge trading.
What if the market doesn’t give you a clean opportunity today?
Are you still going to go all-in, out of frustration?
❌ That’s not a strategy. That’s gambling.
---
📍 QS Signals Are a Map — Not a Magic Button
QS AI signals help you find opportunities — but even the best map won’t help if:
You're in the wrong city (bad market environment)
You’re rushing without checking road conditions (volatility, news, timing)
Even with QS, you don’t have to trade every day, every hour.
---
✅ What You Should Do
Be patient
Respect market conditions
Take a break on slow or tricky days
Come back when the odds are in your favor
---
🧘♂️ Final Words
You don’t have to win every day.
You don’t have to trade every day.
You don’t even have to be active to be successful.
🎯 Trade less. Trade smarter. Select your time wisely.
That’s how real traders survive and thrive in this game.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn
Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs
💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits
⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect
Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities
📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish
Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger
📊 Key Data & Events
📅 Friday, July 11:
(No major U.S. economic data scheduled)
Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
SPY Approaches Gamma Wall-TA for July 10SPY Approaches Gamma Wall: Key Zones to Watch for Tomorrow’s Trade 🔥
GEX Options Sentiment Analysis:
SPY is currently hovering just below the major GEX resistance zone around 624–626, where the highest positive GEX and gamma wall overlap with strong call walls (52.17% and 41.33%). This region has historically capped upside momentum, so traders should prepare for potential rejection or breakout scenarios.
Downside has modest protection around 620 (HVL level), with negative GEX zones building near 619–617, marking a weak PUT wall. The lack of deep PUT dominance signals limited downside hedging pressure.
* IVR: 8.9 (low), IVx avg: 13.8
* Options Flow Sentiment: 24.1% PUTs
* GEX Bias: Mildly bullish unless 623 fails
Options Strategy Suggestions:
* If price breaks and holds above 626.5, consider buying CALL spreads (e.g., 626c/630c) targeting a gamma squeeze into 628+.
* If 623 breaks, look for short-dated PUT spreads (e.g., 623p/620p) targeting a fade back into 620 or even 617.
1-Hour Chart Price Action Analysis:
SPY has reclaimed a bullish posture after the CHoCH (Change of Character) on July 8 and is pushing into a supply zone just beneath the prior swing high. The price structure now forms a clean ascending channel, supported by higher lows and rising demand.
* Support Zones: 622.00, 620.34
* Resistance Levels: 624.72, 626.27
* BOS (Break of Structure): Confirmed earlier, adding bullish confluence
Watch for a breakout above the current supply zone to continue momentum toward 628+. However, failure to break and a rejection near 625 could lead to a retest of 620–622 as the next demand zone.
Trading Outlook for Thursday:
* Bullish Case: Break and close above 626 opens the door to a squeeze into 628+. Use pullbacks to 623–624.2 as entry zones.
* Bearish Case: Rejection at current levels with a breakdown below 622.5 could pull SPY into the 620.3 and possibly 617.9 levels.
* Scalp Setup: Long above 625 with tight stop below 623. Short below 622.5 targeting 620, risk above 624.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own plan.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 U.S.–EU & U.S.–Japan Trade Optimism Lifts Sentiment
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record-high closes on July 23, fueled by optimism over a potential U.S.–EU trade deal mirroring the U.S.–Japan framework, with the EU-set tariff on autos potentially halved to 15%
💵 Dollar Retreats, Yields Climb
As markets shifted toward risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields increased and gold softened, while the dollar eased—highlighting growing confidence in trade-driven growth news
🏦 Fed Independence Under Pressure—But No July Cut Expected
A Reuters poll shows economists see heightened political pressure on the Fed jeopardizing its independence, though the consensus remains that rates will stay unchanged this month
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Thursday, July 24:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly tally of new unemployment benefit applications—key indicator of labor-market conditions.
10:00 AM ET – New Residential Sales (June)
Tracks signed contracts for new homes, offering insight into housing demand under tightening mortgage rates.
All Day – Trade Headlines & Fed Watch
Continued focus on U.S.–EU trade developments and any follow-up to Fed independence concerns from policy circles.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #trade #economy #Fed #housing #jobs #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 23, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 23, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 Morgan Stanley Stays Bullish
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its optimistic view, forecasting the S&P 500 will reach 7,200 by mid‑2026. They cited strong earnings and anticipated rate cuts as key drivers, though warned of risks from rising Treasury yields and tariff-related cost pressure
📉 Inflation Debate Reignites
A renewed debate is underway regarding whether tariffs are "transitory" or persistent inflation drivers. Treasury counselor Joseph Lavorgna argued tariff impacts will be one-off, while others caution long-term price pressures may persist, complicating Fed policy directions
🏛️ Calls for Fed Reform Intensify
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested structural reforms to the Federal Reserve could have greater long-term impact than removing Chair Powell, highlighting ongoing concerns over central-bank governance amid political criticism
💳 Investors Shift to Corporate Bonds
As equity valuations have surged, investors are reallocating toward investment-grade corporate bonds, reducing credit spreads to the tightest levels since 1998—a sign of elevated risk appetite balanced with caution
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Wednesday, July 23:
(No major U.S. economic releases)
Market focus remains on tech earnings (Tesla, Alphabet) and Fed signals following Tuesday’s Powell address.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investing decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #Fed #earnings #corporatebonds
SPY Options Analysis Summary (2025-07-22)
🔻 AMEX:SPY Weak Bearish Put Setup (0DTE) – 07/22/25
All models agree: price is weak, momentum is limp, and VWAP is above.
But conviction? Not unanimous. High-risk, high-reward 0DTE scalpers only.
⸻
📉 Trade Setup
• 🟥 Direction: PUT
• 🎯 Strike: $626.00
• 💵 Entry: $0.57
• 💰 Target: $1.70 (+200%)
• 🛑 Stop: $0.28 (–50%)
• 📅 Expiry: Today (0DTE)
• ⚖️ Confidence: 65%
• ⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open
⸻
🧠 Multi-AI Consensus
Model Bias Action
Grok/xAI Weak Bearish ⚠️ No Trade
Claude Weak Bearish ⚠️ No Trade
Gemini Bearish ✅ $627 Put
Llama Moderately Bearish ⚠️ Conservative Put
DeepSeek Bearish ✅ $626 Put
🔹 VWAP < Price = Bearish bias
🔹 RSI = Neutral → watch for fakeouts
🔹 VIX favorable (<22)
🔹 Volume = weak = risk of whipsaw
⸻
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Bounce risk off session lows is real
• Lack of momentum may cause theta burn
• Best for scalpers who react fast — not a swing trade
• No conviction = smaller size, tighter leash
⸻
📢 Tagline (for virality):
“ AMEX:SPY is limping, not bleeding. But if it breaks, 200% comes fast. 0DTE scalpers: this is your window.” 💣
SPY - First Signs of TroubleFrom this entire uptrend we might be seeing the first signs of trouble.
Here are some reasons for this from a technical perspective:
-Daily Printed a Gravestone Doji
-RSI Testing Overbought as Resistance
-Slight Bearish Divergence on Daily RSI
-Momentum Stalling
There could also be some catalyst tomorrow that contribute to this. Powell speaks tomorrow so depending on what he says could either add fuel to a market reversal or negate these bearish signals and send us on another leg. Prepare for volatility.