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SPY trade ideas
SPY At Risk as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Jun 23 — What Monday Holds for Bulls & Bears ⚔️📉
🔍 GEX & Options Sentiment Overview:
From the daily GEX chart:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* 📍Call Walls: 597 → 602 (supply zones), strong resistance.
* 📍Put Walls: 590 → 587 → 572, significant gamma exposure to the downside.
* High Volatility Zone (HVL) at 590 – a trigger level; under this, the market may accelerate downside toward 587 and even 572.
* GEX Summary:
* PUTS: 80.4% dominance
* GEX Net: 🔴 extremely negative
* IVR 23.3, still on the lower side but rising
* Implication: Dealers are hedging to the downside. Gamma exposure creates risk of accelerated selloff below 590.
📊 Technical Analysis – Daily (1D)
* Price: 594.28 (as of Friday close)
* Trend: Daily candle broke prior support; new lower high confirmed.
* Structure:
* Failed to reclaim 597, now acting as local resistance
* Next major demand zone: 587
* Trendline from the recent highs shows lower highs; bearish continuation forming.
* Volume: Bearish candle closed with strong volume — sign of institutional distribution.
⏱️ Intraday TA – 1H Chart
* CHoCH/BOS: Confirmed Break of Structure near 591, then a small rally attempt.
* Micro Supply Box: 596.5–597.5 — liquidity trap if SPY rallies into it.
* Support Zones:
* 593.35 / 594.00 – holding Friday’s bounce.
* If fails, expect sweep to 590 → 587.
* Trendline Pressure: Downward diagonal trendline rejecting every bounce. Unless a full candle close over 599.50, bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Geopolitical Risk – U.S. Bombs Iran
* News: U.S. launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets. Market now faces:
* Flight to safety: TLT, Gold, and USD may rise.
* Oil likely spikes — expect XLE and energy stocks to outperform.
* Tech and indexes may open with gap-down risk due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
* SPY Implications:
* Risk-off behavior could amplify sell-off under 590.
* Traders may hedge via VIX calls, gold futures, or SPY puts.
* Watch for VIX spikes or DXY rally as confirmation of sentiment shift.
🧠 Trade Scenarios – Monday June 24
🔻 Bearish Case (High-Probability if Geopolitical Escalates)
* Rejects at 596–597 zone (supply)
* Entry: ~595–596 rejection
* Targets: 590 → 587 → 572 (extreme GEX)
* Stop: 598.5–599.2 above supply box
🔼 Bullish Case (If Market Shakes Off Iran Tension)
* Breaks over 597.5, closes above 599.5 (CHoCH confirmation)
* Entry: 598–599 breakout
* Targets: 602 → 604.5 (2nd Call Wall)
* Stop: 596.5
📌 My Thoughts:
SPY is sitting on a knife’s edge. GEX is screaming downside, and now geopolitical risk adds another layer of pressure. Monday could open with volatility spikes, and if the market gaps down under 590, it might cascade to 587 fast.
Only a reclaim above 599.5 invalidates the bearish structure — and even then, macro headlines might limit upside. Stay nimble. Hedge if holding longs.
🧭 Action Plan for Monday:
* Scalpers: Watch the 596–597 rejection zone — quick puts may work well.
* Swing traders: Use HVL 590 as pivot. Lose it? Target 587.
* Hedgers: VIX calls or GLD may provide cushion.
* Macro watchers: Monitor oil (USO), DXY, and bonds (TLT) for risk-on/off cues.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
Low frequency trading (LFT) vs HFTHey fellow tarders and financial mojol,
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence
Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance
🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain
Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds
💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation
The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 24:
10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June)
Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities.
10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins
Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
June 27th, 2025 - Morning BriefFriday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline.
Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SP:SPX and CME_MINI:NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NASDAQ:NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NYSE:NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure.
But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching.
Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino.
Here’s where things stand:
- OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns)
- BLACKBULL:WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos)
- BINANCE:BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream)
- CME_MINI:ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record
Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex.
Been building something for US swing traders — if you’re one, I’d really appreciate your feedback. Free to test, link in Bio
update on the Markets 6-26SPY may reverse today, I'm watching IWM for clues. Gold losing support as of now. Oil may come down more and then bounce again. NG is hard to read. BTC still holding below it's channel.
SPY . Market Corrections IncomingHey Guys it's been a long time but I'm going to be more consistent in publishing more. The S&P 500 has hit a level of resistance 4 times on the daily chart. which is very very telling. Yes I understand we have news and war being a major catalyst in the stock market rallying a lot lately but this is only temporary. This previous witching was last Friday if you weren't aware which also caused the small pull back. So for further bullishness to continue let's look at the earnings for the magnificent 7 and the rest of the tech sector. More war means more money for the market . we have the next witching in September . and so here are my projections. We take a step higher in July as we go into the peak of SOLAR Maximum . please do your research. and then after that by September we go into pull season . Happy trading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-19: GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern is a GAP Reversal in Counter Trend mode. I believe this could represent a breakdown in the ES/NQ as the US stock market is closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
Obviously, after the Fed comments yesterday (stating "uncertainty") and with the continued Israel/Iran conflict playing out, it makes sense to me that the US markets would move into a pre-weekend consolidation phase.
Even though the US stock market will be closed, the futures market will likely stay open and will carry some general market sentiment and reactions to news.
Watching Gold/Silver and Bitcoin should be very interesting today. I suspect the markets will continue to consolidate downward today - leading to a potential breakdown seeking support day on Friday.
Buckle up. We'll likely have 3-5+ days of news related to the Israel/Iran conflict and other issues over this weekend. It could be very interesting to see how the global markets move through this news.
Get some.
Happy Juneteenth
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SPY ATH TARGET 650Trend: Strong bullish continuation. Price just broke above the key 610 level, entering a momentum phase toward the projected 650 target.
Structure: SPY is trading inside a rising channel. The upper bound aligns with the 650 level, suggesting this is the next liquidity zone.
Support Zones:
610: Now a critical support. If it holds, buyers remain in control.
580–560: First unfilled gap — a likely magnet if price dips.
540–530: Second unfilled gap — stronger support on deeper pullback.
500–480: Major demand block — structural bottom of the current rally.
Moving Average (EMA): Price is trading above its EMA, confirming bullish momentum.
Gaps: Two visible gaps remain open below, both likely to act as magnets if bulls lose momentum.
📈 Expected Range:
Above 610 → Target: 650
Below 610 → Watch for gap fills at 580 and 540
What Is The Market Waiting For?Good Morning Trading Fam,
Our stock and crypto markets seem to have stalled. You may be wondering what they are waiting for. Quite simply, the S&P 500 has reached a double-top. That's all. There may be some more pause here for the next week or so. Barring any significant bearish geopolitical or other events, I expect us to move higher. Any FUD at all will send the market back down again. So yes, unfortunately, the next move(s) will be mostly predicated on news. Traders are rather fragile rn. Trade accordingly.
Best,
Stew
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bouncing Up from Support after NewsSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $593 support level after recent global news (de-escalation news).
Price action has slowed and consolidated in June 2025, and the S&P500 is still maintaining a price uptrend.
The 50EMA and 20EMA Golden Cross is still active and in progress (since May 2025).
The next stock market earnings season is not for another 3 months. Inflation, interest rate news, global events, government news, corporate news will continue to affect price volatility this summer.
Resistance Levels: $604, $610, $612, $619.
Support Levels: $600, $593, $586, $579.
SPY 500 BreadthCurrently see weakness on the breadth of the S&P500. We go back below the 9-EMA and could head back down to the gap-fill area. For now I'm working on my watchlist and looking for potential bounces on leading stocks.
Choppy daySPX closed under the channel trendline which I think bodes well for bears. Gold looks like it's breaking down. Nat Gas looks strong. USOIL looks like it will go higher. BTC is at support.
SPY: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
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bullish targets smashed ;)spy broke my bullish targets i posted when it was 500, now struggling with a lower high at resistance zone, push down to 572-580 or so is possible before they try to push for all time highs🚀
boost and follow for more 💖
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-20 : Pause Bar PatternToday's Pause Bar pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will slide into a sideways type of PAUSE in price action today. I'm not expecting much to happen and if we do see any breakaway or breakdown trending it will likely be related to news.
While we have options expiration today and a host of other things that could drive the markets, I believe the markets are struggling to find direction right now. Thus, a pause in trading would be somewhat normal after a holiday-shortened trading week.
Gold and Silver are struggling after a brief rally last week. I believe this is fear related to the Israel/Iran conflict. Metals should continue to move higher.
BTCUSD is slightly higher (forgot to cover BTCUSD in the video), but not moving into a breakaway phase.
Overall, everything is very flat in early trading today. It may stay that way with my PAUSE BAR pattern.
Get some.
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SPY: What's Next After the Resistance Retest?
The price action of SPY, shows a significant decline from early February highs, followed by a strong recovery and an established uptrend from mid-April.
Price is currently testing the "Previous Flip Zone" (indicated by the purple shaded area), a level that previously acted as support before the market's sharp decline and has since been retested as resistance.
The "All time High 613" is marked as a major overhead resistance level, representing the peak achieved before the February drawdown.
An "Intermediate Support" zone is identified between 590 and 592, coinciding with the upward-sloping green trendline that has supported the recent rally.
A "Key Area" of support is highlighted further down between 576 and 582, indicating a more substantial demand zone should the intermediate support be breached.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Friday updateSPY likely put in an ABC, I expect lower for most of today. Gold probably higher for now. Oil is just consolidating. NG looks like a buy. BTC i think will breakdown under 100k over the weekend.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 6-17: Top Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move into a type of topping pattern, attempting to identify resistance, then roll away from that resistance level and trend downward.
I suggest the news related to the conflict between Israel & Iran may continue to drive market trends with traders moving away from uncertainty near these recent highs.
Silver makes a big move higher. Gold will likely follow later this week or early next week.
BTCUSD moves into a sideways FLAGGING pattern - possibly attempting a BIG BREAKDOWN event over the next few weeks.
Overall, the markets look like they are poised for a very big move - just waiting for the GREEN LINK (GO).
Stay safe. Protect capital and HEDGE.
Get some.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs
Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4%
🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets
Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs
📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 20:
(No major U.S. economic reports)
Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💼 Business Inventories Flat in April
U.S. business inventories held steady in April, indicating stable consumer and wholesale demand. That suggests production won't need to cut sharply in the near term, supporting GDP outlook
🏭 Industrial Production Slips
Industrial output declined 0.2% in May, signaling ongoing weakness in factory activity amid less favorable global trade conditions .
🌐 Geopolitical Pressures Persist
Heightened tension in the Middle East continues to pressure risk assets. Investors remain focused on safe-haven flows into gold, Treasuries, and defensive equities, with analysts noting the risk backdrop remains tilted to the downside
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 18:
8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May)
Measures new residential construction — leading indication of housing sector health.
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Tracks the weekly count of new unemployment filings — useful for spotting early labor-market weakening.
2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady. Market focus will be on any commentary that hints at future tightening or easing plans.
2:30 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Investors will parse Powell’s remarks for guidance on rate paths, inflation trends, and economic risks.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #housing #Fed #geo_risk #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day TradersAMEX:SPY // June 17 2025 // CPI Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-18 : GAP Potential PatternToday's GAP Potential pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may GAP a bit higher at the open, then move into a melt-up phase, trying to identify resistance, then roll into a topping pattern and move downward.
I believe the recent "rollover" of the markets (initiating last Friday with the Israel/Iran conflict) is still dominating the markets and news related to the ongoing conflict could drive a moderate pullback in US assets.
Headed into the Juneteenth holiday (Thursday, June 19), I suggest traders prepare for the US markets to move into somewhat of a SETTLEMENT mode today - where traders don't want to hold too many open positions into Friday's trading.
Additionally, Gold and Silver could move into a very strong upward price move over the next 4-5+ days. So be prepared for metals to hedge risks when the US stock market is closed.
BTCUSD seems to be struggling into the FLAG APEX. I'm waiting to see if my FLAG count is correct and if we get the breakdown in BTCUSD as I expect.
Get some.
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