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SPY trade ideas

SPY: Bullish, Bullish, Bullish .. MaybeHey guys, Per ush, its been a hot second. To be fair, there hasn't been anything to update as we retain the bull market bias and an up bias, no point in saying up every week haha. But now that things seem .. bearish, I think its time pop in and give a brief update. Its not bearish. Projections are incredibly optimistic for next week. The caveat being that Monday is showing as particularly bearish. So probably a sell to kick off the week, but don’t expect parabolic demise. The projections on everything are incredibly bullish. That include: SPXL, SPX, SPY, QQQ, TQQQ, NDX, DJI, Bullish with no hint of bearishness from what I can see in the preliminary forecast. That kind of prospective conviction usually translates to some pretty convincing PA. My biggest concern here is that we could theoretically consolidate and continue consolidating for some time. But with kind of everything index wise leaning to a solid bullish bias on the probability algorithms, I suspect we should actually see conviction one way or another this week. Into Friday and over this weekend I was actually bearish biased for a 4% pullback. Now that the market has what it wants (50 bps cut) and all is good in the world of the market, I have noticed a decline in volatility. The PA is more similar now to 2021. And in 2021 and through most historic stable bull markets, pullbacks are about 4 to 5%, However, obviously the fact that legit every model read bullish for next week made me take a second look, and I kind of understand now why the 4% pullback is not likely to happen: Based on our recent breakout, a 4% pullback would require us to completely give up the breakout and break down from it. That would be an incredibly bearish thing, which the market isn’t going to allow, However, the bearish probability for Monday does suggest we could see a re-test of this breakout. As from where we closed on Friday, a retest is about 0.8%, If we somehow manage to gap down, it will be less. We have a very bullish reference target as well as you can see in the chart above (the yellow line). That target is 572.50. Remember, we have a very high prob target, with a miss rate of around 5%, at 585 on SPY for this 6 month period. In October, I will do my October themed post because its my favourite time of year! Haha, and I will share the end of year, 3 month (quarterly) high prob target for SPY. So in closing, SPY looking bullish for the week except on Monday. Retain bullish thesis overall but brace yourself for the chance that we continue consolidation. If you are intending to swing SPY long going into next week, my suggestion is ETF. If you want to use options, go further out and try to go as ITM as possible, because if we do enter a period of continued consolidation, its going to destroy OTM, cheap options. The market has not been option friendly lately, especially with the VIX not falling and maintaining an elevated level, So you have to be sure to take this consideration seriously, otherwise you can be right and we go up but you still lose money. On the topic of that 585 high prob target, the range cap on the week is … 585 haha. That’s it guys, safe trades!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Steversteves
16
SpyLook for a pullback here to 560-562 next week minimum.. too many red flags showing right now. The biggest is flag is NYA which represents the broader market then just the S&P 500 Closed at the top of a wedge with a reversal candle .. I expect a pullback to support thena final bounce higher around mid October I expect a wedge flush and bigger correction.. So this pullback to support should align with Spy move down to 560 Dow jones grinding in a broadening wedge.. finished with a reversal candle also friday.. look for a move down to 41,000 next week It's been a long time since I've seen so many sectors and indexes flashing red. One of the most reliable tools prefer to use is the price range; this tool measures the distance between the stock or indexes candle from its 20sma moving average. Here's an example.. notice how when Spy gets 3% extended from its 20 the last few times it pullback there.. also daily moneyflow has went too overbought. I'll go over QQQ and tech sectors tomorrow.. Overall we are just talking about a pullback before a final leg higher before mid October
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
4
The S&P rally continues, defying all fears of a recessionLast week was marked by erratic price movements, leading many to recall the old adage, "no trade might be your best trade." The most confusing (and devastating) price action occurred on Thursday following the FOMC's interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, sparking fears of an upcoming recession. Wednesday ended with a strong bearish "falling star" candle, tempting traders to take large SHORT positions. To be honest, I would have likely done the same if I had been trading that day (luckily, I wasn’t), as the least one would have expected was an overnight rally that wiped out short positions when the market opened on Thursday. This series of events is a perfect example of what makes trading so challenging— even a solid setup can fail spectacularly without any clear reason. Now, let's try to assess the current situation : 1. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points – This is actually positive for the economy and the stock market for many reasons (e.g. cheaper borrowing costs). At the same time there are no objective signs of a recession, only fears. 2. The SPX reached a new all-time high – How can this be bearish? 3. Both weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend. 4. Almost all major SPX sectors closed the week strong, reflecting investor confidence. In summary, the market remains very bullish , with no indication that the trend is reversing anytime soon. Short term price action might be erratic, but long-term things look good both from technical and fundamental perspectives. Let’s stay calm and prudent. Important levels: Last major weekly high (538). As long as it holds buyers have control over weekly chart.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-27 : Gap Potential PatternToday's Gap Potential will likely resolve in an opening price gap to the upside. I believe the current price bias, which is still to the upside, will prompt a higher opening price gap followed by a moderate bullish trend today. I will warn you that an afternoon consolidation period heading into the weekend is not out of the question. So, be prepared for a flat trading range after Noon (NY) lasting possibly 60-90 minutes. The close of trading today could prompt a fairly big price trend (an end-of-day Squeeze). This is capital moving out of the markets before the weekend, and it could prompt a big opportunity for traders. My guess is it would be to the upside, but it really depends on how price reacts throughout the day. Right now, I would guess the upward price squeeze will change by 55 to 65% at the end of the day. Overall, I believe today will be rather muted for the SPY, QQQ, Gold, Silver, and BTCUSD. Yesterday's big CRUSH bar is the volatility event this week (setting new higher highs and higher lows), followed by today's price action, which will settle ahead of next week. So, today, it will likely show moderate trending with periods of flat/consolidation. The end of the day may show a more aggressive "Squeeze" trend - but we'll see if that happens. Either way, play the chart. Play what is in front of you, and don't get trapped in any longer-term expectations. There will be lots of opportunities next week for bigger trends. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 26No video again tonight but here is the trading range. Implied move is between 566 - 573 on the day. We’re above the top of the implied move right now with where futures take it so be careful if we open elevated and don’t get back into the implied move right away, that’s a squeeze setup right there. Don’t forget Powell speaks today in the morning and we have GDP both of which could bring that down, but if we stay elevated be careful of a squeeze. Stupid Willy is pointing down. 35EMA has been holding us up since FOMC and it’s right in the middle today. GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation and hopefully videos will resume soon.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
14
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-25 : Carryover in Carryover ModeToday's carryover trend will likely prompt a moderate meltdown in the SPY and QQQ. Pay attention to how the QQQ is still transitioning away from the shorter-term (blue) Excess Phase Peak pattern while the SPY has broken both the long-term and short-term Excess Phase Peak patterns. In my opinion, this suggests the markets are still struggling to move higher overall. The recent Fed rate cut will prompt the markets to shift attention towards more undervalued stock sectors. This will prompt a fairly broad-market rally phase to settle into place. However, the US elections, which are only about 35 days away, act as an "uncertainty factor" for the markets. Thus, we have a very interesting dynamic. The markets want to transition into a fairly broad rally while uncertainty and concern related to US policy and leadership are becoming increasingly contentious. This translates into volatility, and I believe the markets are set up for a DEEP-V type of Flash Price move over the next 30 days. This is why I'm urging traders to stay cautious of a big volatility event after October 10-14. In the meantime, the SPY and QQQ should attempt to rally a bit higher, and Gold will try to reach $2710-2720. BTCUSD, on the other hand, looks like it will roll downward, targeting the $60,150 level. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
15
Lesson 2: The Power of Initiative in TradingWelcome to Lesson 2 of Hercules Trading’s Psychology Course—The Power of Initiative in Trading. Building on the foundational traits we explored in Lesson 1, today we delve deep into Initiative, a pivotal element that distinguishes successful traders from the rest. Whether you’re navigating the intricate waters of forex, stocks, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, understanding and harnessing the power of initiative is essential for sustained trading success. Why is Trading Initiative So Important? In the realm of trading, the adage “scared money doesn’t make money” encapsulates a fundamental truth about trading psychology. Your mindset, particularly your willingness to take initiative , significantly impacts your ability to capitalize on opportunities and navigate challenges. But what exactly does initiative mean in the context of trading, and why is it such a game-changer? Initiative in trading is about more than just taking the first step; it’s about maintaining a proactive and persistent approach throughout your trading journey. It’s the driving force that propels you to act, adapt, and grow, ensuring that you remain engaged and motivated even when the markets are unpredictable or when faced with setbacks. Understanding Initiative in Your Trading Journey To truly grasp the importance of initiative, it’s crucial to define what it means within the trading landscape. Initiative involves several key aspects: Taking Action: Moving from passive observation to active engagement in the markets. This means not just watching the charts but making informed trading decisions based on analysis and strategy. Proactive Learning: Continuously seeking knowledge and improving your trading skills. This could involve studying market trends, learning new trading strategies, or staying updated with financial news. Adaptability: Being willing to adjust your strategies in response to changing market conditions. The ability to pivot when necessary can prevent significant losses and capitalize on emerging opportunities. Responsibility: Owning your trading decisions and their outcomes. This means acknowledging both successes and failures, learning from them, and using those lessons to inform future trades. Initiative is not a one-time effort but a consistent mindset that keeps you moving forward, learning, and adapting. It’s about being the driver of your trading career, not just a passenger. Why Is Courage Key in Trading? Trading inherently involves risk, and stepping into the markets requires a blend of courage and determination. Many potential traders are deterred by the fear of losing money or making mistakes. However, those who embrace initiative understand that courage is essential for overcoming these fears and achieving success. The Role of Courage in Trading: Facing Uncertainty: Markets are volatile and unpredictable. Courage enables you to make decisions even when outcomes are uncertain. Overcoming Fear: Fear of loss or failure can paralyze traders. Courage helps you confront and manage these fears, allowing you to make rational decisions rather than emotional ones. Embracing Learning Opportunities: Courage encourages you to view losses and setbacks as opportunities to learn and improve, rather than as insurmountable failures. By fostering courage through initiative, you set yourself apart from traders who are hesitant or reactive. This proactive stance is crucial for navigating the complexities of the financial markets and building a resilient trading career. How to Conquer Fear in Trading Fear is a natural emotion in trading, but it shouldn’t dictate your actions. Here’s how to overcome it: Educate Yourself: Knowledge is a powerful antidote to fear. The more you understand the markets, the more confident you’ll become. Invest time in learning about different trading strategies, market indicators, and risk management techniques. Start Small: Begin with manageable investments to build your confidence without significant risk. This gradual approach allows you to gain experience and trust in your strategies. Develop a Trading Plan: A well-thought-out plan provides a roadmap, reducing uncertainty and fear. Your plan should outline your trading goals, risk tolerance, strategies, and criteria for entering and exiting trades. Embrace Losses as Learning Opportunities: Every loss is a step towards mastery. Analyze your mistakes, understand what went wrong, and adjust your strategies accordingly. This mindset transforms setbacks into valuable lessons. Practice Mindfulness and Emotional Control: Techniques such as meditation or journaling can help you stay grounded and manage emotions effectively. Maintaining emotional balance is crucial for making rational trading decisions. Seek Support: Engage with a community of traders or seek mentorship from experienced professionals. Sharing experiences and gaining insights can provide encouragement and reduce feelings of isolation. Why is the Entrepreneurial Spirit Important? Embracing an entrepreneurial spirit means being driven, innovative, and resilient—traits that are invaluable in trading. This mindset pushes you to: Pursue Goals Relentlessly: Set clear objectives and work diligently to achieve them. An entrepreneurial spirit keeps you focused and motivated, even when faced with challenges. Adapt and Innovate: Stay flexible and open to new strategies and market conditions. The ability to adapt is crucial for navigating the ever-changing landscape of financial markets. Overcome Setbacks: Bounce back from losses and view challenges as opportunities for growth. Resilience is key to maintaining long-term success in trading. Create Opportunities: Actively seek and capitalize on profitable trades. This proactive approach ensures that you are always looking for ways to enhance your trading performance. How to Transition from Demo to Real Trading Moving from demo trading to real money trading can be daunting, but it’s a crucial step in your trading journey. Here’s how to make the transition smoothly: Maintain Your Trading Plan: Stick to the strategies that worked in your demo account. Consistency is key to replicating success in live trading. Manage Risk Wisely: Use appropriate risk management techniques to protect your capital. This includes setting stop-loss orders, limiting the size of your trades, and diversifying your portfolio. Control Emotions: Stay disciplined and avoid letting emotions drive your trading decisions. Fear and greed are powerful emotions that can lead to impulsive actions. Start Small: Begin with small investments to build confidence and experience without risking significant amounts of money. Gradually increase your investments as you become more comfortable and proficient. Review and Reflect: Regularly review your trades to understand what worked and what didn’t. Continuous reflection helps you refine your strategies and improve your performance. Stay Patient: Don’t rush into making large trades or expecting immediate returns. Trading success takes time, patience, and persistent effort. Why is Trading Mindset So Important? Your trading mindset determines how you perceive and react to market conditions. A strong mindset helps you: Stay Focused: Concentrate on your trading plan without getting distracted by market noise or external influences. Remain Disciplined: Adhere to your strategies even during volatile periods. Discipline ensures that you follow your plan consistently, leading to better trading outcomes. Maintain Patience: Wait for the right opportunities without rushing into trades. Patience prevents impulsive decisions and helps you capitalize on well-thought-out trades. A robust trading mindset not only enhances your decision-making abilities but also ensures that you remain resilient in the face of market fluctuations and emotional challenges. How Can Taking Initiative Boost Your Career? Taking initiative in trading can significantly enhance your career by: Driving Personal Growth: Continuously improving your skills and knowledge keeps you ahead of the curve. Initiative drives you to seek out new learning opportunities and stay updated with market trends. Creating Opportunities: Actively seeking and capitalizing on profitable trades ensures that you are always making the most of market conditions. Initiative leads to proactive decision-making, which is crucial for trading success. Building a Reputation: Establishing yourself as a proactive and reliable trader within the community builds your reputation. A strong reputation attracts more opportunities and can lead to collaborations or mentorships with other successful traders. Enhancing Resilience: Initiative fosters a resilient mindset, enabling you to bounce back from setbacks and stay committed to your trading goals despite challenges. Are You Ready to Embrace Your Potential? Believing in your potential is the first step towards achieving greatness in trading. Don’t let fear or hesitation hold you back. Embrace the opportunities that come your way, stay committed to your goals, and take decisive actions to realize your trading ambitions. How to Tackle Motivation Issues in Trading Motivation is crucial for maintaining momentum in trading. Here’s how to stay motivated: Set Clear Goals: Define what you want to achieve and create a roadmap to get there. Clear goals provide direction and keep you focused. Celebrate Small Wins: Acknowledge and celebrate your progress to stay motivated. Recognizing small achievements can boost your confidence and encourage continued effort. Stay Connected: Engage with the trading community to share experiences and gain support. Building relationships with other traders provides encouragement and valuable insights. Continuous Learning: Keep expanding your knowledge to stay engaged and inspired. Learning new strategies and techniques keeps your trading practice fresh and exciting. Visualize Success: Regularly visualize your trading goals and the steps you need to take to achieve them. Visualization reinforces your commitment and motivates you to take action. Manage Stress: Implement stress management techniques such as meditation, exercise, or hobbies to maintain a balanced and motivated mindset. Conclusion: Embrace Initiative to Transform Your Trading Journey Initiative is more than just taking action—it’s about fostering a proactive and resilient mindset that drives you towards trading success. By embracing initiative, you empower yourself to navigate the complexities of the financial markets with confidence and determination. In Lesson 2, we’ve explored the significance of initiative, how to overcome fear, and the importance of an entrepreneurial spirit in trading. These elements are essential for building a strong foundation and achieving consistent profitability across all financial markets. Next Lesson: Discipline – The Pillar of Consistent Profitability Stay tuned for Lesson 3, where we’ll delve into Discipline, another crucial trait that underpins consistent success in trading. Learn how to develop and maintain discipline to ensure your trading strategies are executed flawlessly, regardless of market conditions. Hercules Trading Psychology Course is designed to equip you with the mental tools necessary to thrive in all financial markets. By mastering traits like Initiative, Discipline, and Patience, you’ll build a resilient mindset that can withstand the challenges of trading and lead you to sustained profitability. Here’s to your growth and success as a trader across all financial markets!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by exlux
1
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Sept 25 Ok, so I can’t make a video tonight :( My Wifi is down in my neighborhood because they are putting new lines in, and to make matters worse there’s a hurricane coming this way so it won’t likely be fixed until it passes so I can only do as much work as my hotspot will allow Easy Trading Range here today, much easier than QQQ, lol, that one is a mess… but here we have an easy one… the implied move for tomorrow is between 568 to 574 and the only two levels in tomorrow’s implied move are ATH’s at 572.88 and the 35EMA, which is a clear support since after FOMC… Personally looking at 575/576 bear call spreads OR 568/567 bull put spreads depending on how we move tomorrow GL, y’all… I’ll keep you up to date on the wifi situation
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
5
QQQ and SPY comparison in uptrendComparing QQQ and SPY we can that they still both hold up above the support lines. QQQ and SPY are now showing to hold above their long term downward trend, signaling a turn around RSI still remains pretty stable on both with only slight weakness on SPY MACD on both showing leveling off with slight down ward move forming. Volume is looking to decrease lately This upward trend breakthrough remains fairly strong so far. Its looks like the down trend we have been dealing with for the past 2 months may be coming to an end now overall. Since we still have October to go through, its certainly possible to get one more sell off before we go into a full bull swing.
AMEX:SPY
by ratchet-mint
30% GAIN with Break and retest Premarket Low Strategy In this video, I'll walk you through how I achieved a 30% gain using the Break and Retest strategy based on the premarket low. I'll explain how to identify key levels, set up the trade, and manage risk. You'll see the entire process, from analysis to execution, with clear examples of how the premarket low acts as a pivot point for entries and exits. Whether you're a beginner or experienced trader, this strategy could help you make smarter trades and capitalize on market movements. Watch until the end for tips on improving your own day trading setups!
AMEX:SPYShort
by carsonusa5