Week of August 12th Weekly LevelsHere are some of my levels for the week on the bigger time frames. Let me know if you have any questions or critique for me.
SPY trade ideas
Great lesson on my perfect set upThis is an example of what I can look for in the coming week and work on this is my perfect A+ set up
SP500: Bracing for Impact?The crisis is gradually approaching... Global central banks are cutting rates at the fastest pace since the Covid era, according to BofA. The scenario might play out more slowly than shown on the chart, but the essence remains the same.
The upcoming U.S. elections are unlikely to be quiet and peaceful—something big is bound to happen. I'm leaning more towards a downturn.
Is it time to start picking up some Put options? 🤔🤔🤔
SPY The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 532.91
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 524.76
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 546.16
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY - RSI Failure Swing and Gold New ATH BreakoutThis trade idea is already a missed opportunity but the analysis of what transpired may be useful for future reference. This was a -8.38% move from a close that constituted a sell signal according to RSI failure swing theory on the daily chart. The drawdown would have been .46% if a short trade was entered at the close of Wed July 17th when the signal was given. That sell level was also successfully defended 4 days later. It coincided with the 9-day SMA at that time. Also worth noting: Gold broke out to a new ATH the day prior, which in hindsight, amongst the backdrop of great, unretraced gains in gold over the past 5 months, was a bellwether for increasing risk asset fear. SPY put in a new ATH that same day, but not with the same level of conviction. It had a smaller % gain, and it wasn't a breakout but a continuation of a series of new ATH days. Main takeaway: Watch the daily RSI for failure swings in overbought territory to spot trend changes before they happen.
SPY 65 Minute Wave Analysis65 Minute spy chart with the 8 Ema showing a potential wave 4 retest of the pivot point at 518.21 and further potential upside to the next support zone at 546518.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-9 Noon Update : Possible SqueezeThis quick update covers SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and NVDA.
Boy, what a change in price range compared to the last few weeks. Looks like ht markets have settled into a deep sleep today.
I still believe the Breakaway pattern could really make a move in the last 30 to 40 minutes of trading. A solid squeeze potential is available to price if the short trading pressure starts to unwind before the weekend.
Watch how this plays out at the end of the day, and remember that next week should see solid rallying trends.
Have a great weekend.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
This was a MOVIE! Prepare to be entertained.. To say the least!This video is as real and transparent as it gets in the trading world. Hope you appreciate it as much as I learned from it.
Final profit on this trade/video as we got cut off right at the drop - $560 and counting.
This was legit a movie - For anyone who watches this whole thing, I hope you enjoyed and learned some important lessons about the nature of the market, human psychology, and the importance of having a trading plan. Probably the most up & down wild hour of trading i've had in a long time. I will be rewatching this one for years to come. Lots of lessons learned in 1 video.
Happy Trading to everyone.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 9-9 Update : SPY Must Rally Above 532This is a quick update related to the Inside Breakaway Pattern today.
The SPY must attempt to break above 532 in order to attempt a rally up to 539-542.
I really believe the SPY is primed to move into a Ripper Rally phase between now and the end of next week.
I will urge the Make-Or-Break (525-526) is still in play.
If the SPY falls below 525 - the trend flips to BEARISH
If the SPY stays above 525 - the trend is BULLISH.
So, we need to see how today plays out. But, I believe a Ripper Rally is primed and ready to go where the SPY could rally up into the 540+ level very easily.
It may play out as a rally to 545++ by mid-next week - but we may see it start today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Short Term Paths for SPY Moving ForwardSPY had broken well below the $525 area, which is one of the levels I consider most important. The break below was brief, despite some volatility and back and forth, bulls are still resilient as they have been all year.
For now, SPY has reclaimed 524 and has filled the gap from Monday. Currently sitting right on that gap and this week's highs. We have an ascending channel it is respecting as well, near the bottom end now. If it breaks below, I would expect a move back to ~525, if it is able to break above this week's high, I think we could see a big squeeze back up to ~542.50.
If 525 gives, next target would be Monday's low and then April's low.
08/09 ATR Levels and Range== no input today just levels and lines
SCALP
SR2 531.99
SR1 531.08
SPOP 530.16
LAST PRICE 529.25
SBREAK 528.34
SS1 527.42
SS2 526.51
R2 538.38
R1 534.87
POP 532.76
LAST PRICE 529.25
BREAK 525.77
S1 523.00
S2 521.16
S&P500 reaches Sell ZoneThis area offers the best Risk to Reward ratio for Opening Fresh Short positions Top of the TrapZone, Once RED UMVD starts and we start seeing RED Bars again
If VIX stays high we can get another leg down!
Hey SPY Lovers! We are on a slow recoveringThe price touched our area of interest and has started to bounce back upwards. As you can see in the indicator, the SPY is beginning its slow strength. If you Compare the structure with the oscillator on the bottom, you will see there will be a bull run soon .
The question is: will this be the bull run we've been looking for, to reach our area of interest or even higher?
No one knows for sure, but for now, I want to show you that the SPY is starting the recovery process.
HERE IS THE KEY: We need to pay much attention to Nvidia's report because, if you remember, the last time they reported, it practically pushed all the markets to new highs!
Let's see what happens."
$SPY August 9, 2024AMEX:SPY August 9, 2024
15 Minutes
Opened gap up.
Second bar close was good. Near top of bar and going below low of first bar.
So bought around 524 for 528.5. trade over.
Now AMEX:SPY above all averages except 200 in 15 minutes.
So, for the day considering the rise from 518.05 to 531.3, holding 523 524 levels i have a target 532.5 to 535.
If you draw extension from recent low 510.28 to 531.59 to 518.05, we get a target 540.
Buy we have 200 yet to cross. Hence aiming for 532.5 to 535 first.
For the day i will sell below 520.
As said earlier. Day is still in uptrend.
For me trend change in day only if 490-493 is broken.
SPY to 487The lower trend line points to down.
The Fibonacci retracement points to down.
The RSI is about to go under 50 on the weekly.
That's my prediction. But I'm a nobody.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-8 : Harami Means IndecisionThis update to my morning video was created to help you understand why a Harami pattern will likely prompt fairly large price rotation today.
The Harami pattern is an indecision type of pattern. It suggests price is struggling to find direction and may attempt to test upper and lower boundaries.
The purpose of the Harami pattern is to flush out weaker trading positions while, essentially, completing a minor Flag formation.
The Harami pattern is an Inside Bar. By structure, this Inside Bar is a Flag setup (very short-term).
The end of a Flag Formation means price will attempt to move into a new trending mode - or move back into a new Flag formation.
Pay attention to how price constructs this Harami/Flag pattern today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY ES short back on table In the event the two day low is taken out to the down side, that will stimulate me into action on taking a short. This may only have a small move but want to have runner at that point just in case.
I have not seen acceptance of the higher prices. An amazing top 6 top 8 push this week, really impressive stuff. yet when the next and the rest of the top 50 going hard could not hold higher ground told me bulls for this move had to power.
We will see if i can get triggered and get enough move to cover put decay. Yes will be controlling the loss on this one with options.
I will take long trades and sure have been. just only posting about my short quest.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-8 : A Volatile Harami PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami/Inside.
Because of the recent price volatility and the current price FLAG setup, I expect today's Harami pattern to include a fairly large high/low price range. That means we may see very solid price trending (up/down) throughout the day - whereas today's open/close range should stay within yesterday's open/close range.
If you've been following my research, I expect the SPY to attempt to mount a fairly strong rally over the next 10+ days (possibly longer). After the recent bout of volatility (the Kamala-Crush), I believe the US markets will attempt to move into what I'm calling a Vortex Rally based on simple fundamentals.
In order for this to happen, we need to see a few things happen:
- the US dollar continues to strengthen
- crude oil should continue to slide downward (possibly targeting $65)
- IYT (TRAN) should stay somewhat muted into the end of this year
- Gold/Silver should continue to move upward
- Global markets should continue to struggle
If this happens, it will strengthen my Vortex Rally expectations into 2025 and beyond.
Remember, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not always 100% accurate. But they can provide a very clear context for expectations, and when used with other TA techniques and proper risk management - they can be incredibly helpful.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY and Gaps: Essential Data for Traders and Investors🔍 Research Data:
Analysis Period: 12/31/1999 to 08/02/2024
Target Asset: ETF SPY
Time Frame: 1 Week
Total Candles: 1284
Candles with Gaps: 241
Percentage of Gaps: 18.77%
However, only 33 of these gaps, or 13.69% of the gaps, remained by the end of the week.
What is a Gap? Gaps are spaces on the chart where no trading occurred. They form when the opening of a candle is higher than the previous candle’s high or lower than the previous candle’s low. Gaps are usually caused by significant news or events that occur outside of normal trading hours.
Why is this Important? For traders and investors, understanding the occurrence of gaps is crucial. This data reveals that although 18.77% of weekly candles present gaps, the majority of these gaps do not persist until the end of the week. This can be used to adjust positions and create specific strategies that take advantage of the potential return to previous gap levels.
Possible Strategy:
Condition: Candle opens below the previous candle's low
Entry: Buy at market
Target: Previous candle's low
Exit: Candle close if the target is not hit;
Disclaimer
⚠️ Important Notice:
Personal Data: The above research is based on my personal data and analysis of the weekly chart of the ETF SPY.
Independent Verification: I strongly recommend that you conduct your own research to confirm this scenario before using this information.
Strategy Testing: Always test your strategies in simulated environments or with capital that you can afford to lose before applying them in the real market.
If you found this information useful, give this post a boost! Don't forget to follow me for more trading insights and strategies. Let's connect – drop your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! 🚀📈
$SPY August 8,2024AMEX:SPY August 8,2024
15 Minutes
Gap up was not able to sustain.
And 529-533 was resistance as expected.
Now for the day i will take 2 numbers.
The rise 510.28 to 531.59
The fall 531.59 to 518.05
The rise has retraced 61.8%So holding 514 levels is crucial for the day.
And for the fall 526 level could be resistance on a retrace.
So, i will sell below 514 and buy above 529 for the day.
This gives a 15$ gap.
So based on close of bar in 14 minutes during the day if i get a chance to enter above 522 levels, and moving average 9 is above 21 then I might go for a trade for 527-529 levels.
AMEX:SPY is weak as it is below all moving averages. So, any buy is only a contra trade with strict stop loss.
Where is the S&P500 trend?Where is the S&P500 going with this recent decline?
We can observe to key parallel channels that have acted as support and resistance both in the near and short term.
The Uplsoping channel in on watch as price action is struggling to close back above. As long as we remain in the upsloping channel we have to observe the risk of falling to the lower boundary range.
If we recapture the falling channel we can always float back up to the upper range.
