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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-16 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's Up-Down-Up Pattern suggests the markets will transition into a moderate upward trending price bar - which is quite interesting in the world we have today. War and a big weekend of events, protests and other new items could drive market trends over the next few days. Still, the SPY Cycle Pattern for today is an Up-Down-Up - which suggests last Thursday was an Up bar, last Friday was a Down bar, and today should be an Up bar. The Gold/Silver pattern is a POP pattern in Counter-trend. I believe the US markets are benefiting as a safe-haven for capital as the global turmoil drives global investors to seek safety and security for their capital. That means as long as the world continues to spin out of control, the US markets and the US-Dollar will act as a moderate safe-haven for capital. Gold and Silver should also benefit from this global chaos. Bitcoin is benefiting from the strength of the US markets (and the technology sector) as well. Let's see how this week start to play out. I'm waiting for some more news. Could be very interesting this week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 U.S. Retail Spending Holds Firm May’s retail sales were flat month-over-month, defying expectations of a slowdown. Core retail sales (ex-autos) edged up +0.2%, signaling resilience in consumer purchases—an encouraging sign for economic momentum 🤖 Tesla’s Robotaxi Buzz Accelerates Tesla stock surged after a weekend robotaxi video surfaced ahead of its planned Austin launch. A viral clip showed a Model Y “robotaxi” navigating traffic autonomously, sparking fresh investor enthusiasm despite safety debates 📊 BoJ Holds Rates; Dollar Edges Higher Japan’s central bank left policy unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining its dovish bias. This lifted the dollar slightly versus the yen, drawing focus to global interest-rate divergence 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, June 17: 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May) Consumer purchases are tracked, excluding autos. Monitor if activity stays steady despite inflation and rate pressures. 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (May) Provides insight into factory activity and plant usage—a gauge of economic health amid global slowdown concerns. 10:00 AM ET – Business Inventories (April) Shows stock levels held by wholesalers and manufacturers. Higher inventories with weaker sales may signal slowing demand. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Powell Expresses Caution The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50%, though Chair Powell likely won’t provide fresh guidance. Markets see limited upside without stronger inflation or growth cues 💱 Dollar Strengthens on Geopolitical Risk The U.S. dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to safe assets amid global tensions with Iran. Treasury yields eased slightly on risk-off flows 🛢️ Oil Near Multi-Week Highs on Mideast & OPEC Dynamics Oil held near seven-week highs (~$67–70/barrel), buoyed by Iran-Israel tensions and OPEC+ output hikes (411K bpd added from May–July), offset by demand concerns . ⚠️ G7 Summit Faces Heightened Stakes G7 finance ministers meet in Canada under pressure from Middle East escalation. Watch for policy coordination and commentary on trade, inflation, and global economic risks . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 16 Regular markets open after Juneteenth holiday Quiet day; oil & geopolitical headlines dominate 📅 Tuesday, June 17 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May): Signals consumer spending strength/duration 8:30 AM ET – CPI (May): Confirms inflation trend post-CPI cooler reading 10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May): Gauges housing market demand Unexpected Tesla Robotaxi Demo (Austin): Watch for surprise developments this week 📅 Wednesday, June 18 Global Central Bank Day: FOMC, BoE, BoJ policy updates; U.S. Fed will most likely hold steady 📅 Thursday, June 19 – Juneteenth Holiday – U.S. markets closed 📅 Friday, June 20 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (May): Measures U.S. housing activity 10:00 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (May): Early snapshot of economic momentum ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17 Stock Near All-Time High Approaching ATH at 613.23 — key pivot zone Break and hold above: Look for calls targeting momentum continuation (e.g., 620, 630 psychological levels) Rejection off ATH: Look for puts targeting a retracement toward 599, then 568 Retracement and Support Zones 599: Micro support on smaller timeframes (15m/1h). Watch for intraday bounce or breakdown. 568: Key downside target if rejection at ATH confirms and 599 fails. Consider swing puts toward this level. Also monitor the 585–590 range for potential consolidation or minor support. Game Plan Triggers Bullish confirmation: Clean break and hold above 613.23 with strong volume Market-wide risk-on tone (SPY, QQQ green) Bearish setup: Strong rejection at or below ATH Market-wide pullback or macro weakness (especially in tech or consumer sectors) Catalysts June 17 (Monday): Retail Sales Report — gauge of consumer strength June 18 (Tuesday): Unemployment Claims — snapshot of labor market health Strong data may fuel market optimism Weak data could tilt market bearish Additional Notes Watch for volume divergence near ATH — breakout with low volume can trap longs Use pre-market action to frame bias: gap up with follow-through = strength; gap up followed by fade = weakness Keep an eye on VIX and bond yields for macro pressure indicators
AMEX:SPYLong
by Ubaidy100
SPY Rejected at Gamma Wall–Watch $610 Breakdown or $615 Reclaim🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment: SPY closed Friday with a rejection off the Highest Positive Net GEX / Gamma Wall at $615, with sellers defending the upper structure near the 2nd Call Wall at $620. Support now lies in the $608–$604 range, with $605.54 and $604.45 aligning with GEX magnets and prior structure. Below that, there’s a gap to the HVL zone near $599, and the gamma floor starts deep around $591, which is also defended by the 2nd and 3rd PUT Walls. Implied Volatility Rank is 12.2, with IVX below average. This implies premium selling could be dominant unless we break key levels. Meanwhile, PUT flow dominates at 31.9%, showing a clear defensive posture by institutions. 🔧 Options Trade Setup (for Monday–Wednesday): Bearish Setup: If SPY confirms under $610, especially during the first hour Monday, it could trigger a fade toward $605 or even $599 HVL. Consider a PUT debit spread like 610p/600p (Jul 3). Stop out if price reclaims $613.50–$615 cleanly. Bullish Setup: If SPY holds $610 and reclaims $615 with force, it can squeeze into the GEX void toward $620–$622. Consider a CALL debit spread like 615c/620c (Jul 3). Stop if price breaks back under $610 with volume. 📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart): We now have back-to-back CHoCHs printed below rising wedge structure, followed by a failed retest at the top. This is a textbook sign of exhaustion. The final BOS and CHoCH from Friday confirmed that buyers lost short-term control. The current structure is rolling over with lower highs, and SPY is now trading inside a descending micro-channel after rejection at $615. Volume picked up on the Thursday/Friday rejection, which adds weight to the downside scenario unless we open strong Monday. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: $617.00 – Upper Gamma ceiling $615.00 – Gamma Wall & recent supply zone $613.50 – Mid-level rejection pivot $610.00 – Structure support now under threat $608.48 – Intraday gamma magnet $605.54 / $604.45 – Strong confluence support zone $599.49 – HVL target zone $591.90 – Gamma floor if broader selloff triggers ✅ Thoughts and Monday Game Plan: SPY looks vulnerable under $610 — this is the most important level to watch. If that breaks and holds below in the first 30–60 minutes, we likely fade to $605 or lower. The ideal trade setup would be to short the retest of $610 from below, or buy PUTs on confirmed weakness into the gamma air pocket. Alternatively, wait for a high-volume reclaim of $615 to trade with the bulls, but until then, the path of least resistance is down. Macro catalysts are light, but pre-holiday positioning could bring volatility — stay nimble. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and trade with a plan.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause 💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures 🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks ⚠️ July Risks Loom The coming week will spotlight: July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3 Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 30 9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity 📅 Tuesday, July 1 U.S. markets open, watch trade developments 📅 Wednesday, July 2 Global PMI readings released 📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day) 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June) 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June) 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June) These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY 15-Min — Weak-High Sweep in Play• Discount BOS at 603.95 → impulsive leg to 606.7 (0.886) • Weak high tagged at 607.16 – expecting continuation to 1.382 ≈ 608.61 then 1.854 ≈ 610.92 • Invalidation if price closes below 605.45 session VWAP band • Targets: 608.61 → 610.92 • Risk: stop 604.9 (below 0.5 Fib) VolanX bias remains risk-on while micro structure stair-steps above the 9-EMA channel. Educational only – not financial advice #SPY #SMP500 #OrderFlow #Fib #VolanX #WaverVanir
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY- Premarket readPre-Market Read – June 23 AMEX:SPY Premarket High: 595.15 Premarket Low: 592.15 Bias: Leaning Bearish Price got rejected again at that 600–602 zone — that’s been a wall. All the EMAs (9/50/200) are stacked tight, which usually means something’s brewing. Institutions bought heavy down around 572–579 — they’re already green, so they might start selling into strength. I’m expecting chop between 593–595 off the open. I’ll probably wait out the first 15 min and let the ORB build. If we break out, I’m watching both sides, but I lean put.
AMEX:SPYShort
by davekclinton76
579 spy incoming?I posted this a week or so ago. I think we are finally going to have the momentum, or lack thereof, to make it down to fill the rest of that gap. I have noticed that large gaps that leave a small gap below(you must adjust the indicator to show it) almost always get filled before continuing up. This 579 level also matches up perfectly with the 20ema on the weekly which should provide further support. I will be looking for this level all week while being aware of any short squeezes that could occur on the way down. Will definitely go long at this 579 level as I think we will have a very green July.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Fraggle_Rock
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment 🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction 📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses 🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile ⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 23 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June) 10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May) 📅 Tuesday, June 24 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June) Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress 📅 Wednesday, June 25 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May) 📅 Thursday, June 26 8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate) 📅 Friday, June 27 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY Breaks Rising Wedge! Gamma Wall Rejected. Jun 17SPY Breaks Rising Wedge! Gamma Wall Rejected — Bearish Momentum Building Into OPEX 🔻 🔬 GEX (Gamma Exposure) Sentiment Breakdown: * Gamma Resistance Above: * Gamma Wall / Call Resistance: $602 * $603–$604.50 = additional CALL walls (2nd & 3rd tier resistance) * $606.37 = Local high; unlikely to reclaim without macro tailwind * PUT Walls / Downside Zones: * $597 = HVL + Key Flip Level * $595 = 1st Major PUT Support (Highest negative NET GEX) * $593 / $590 = deeper GEX-supported flush zones * Options Flow Metrics: * IVR: 19.4 (slightly below avg) * IVx avg: 19 * PUT Flow: 91.5% 🟥 * GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴 (Bearish dealer positioning + skewed delta exposure) * Interpretation: * Heavy call rejection at $602 combined with high PUT flow suggests dealers are short gamma. * If SPY closes below $597, gamma exposure flips net negative — potential acceleration into $595/$593. 🧠 15-Minute SMC Breakdown: * Current Price: $598.00 * Structure Overview: * Clean rising wedge break * Two CHoCHs confirmed at top → shift from bullish to bearish control * Price broke into demand box (~$597–$598), testing support * Volume spiked on breakdown = institutional participation confirmed * Trend View: * Uptrend is broken. * Now entering potential distribution-to-downtrend transition phase 🧭 Trade Scenarios: 🟥 Bearish Breakdown Setup (High Probability): * Trigger: Clean breakdown below $597 * Target 1: $595 (GEX Put wall) * Target 2: $593 / $590 * Stop-loss: Above $600.50 Gamma flip + SMC structure shift supports downside. Dealer flows likely exacerbate drop under $597. 🟩 Bullish Reclaim Setup (Low Probability): * Trigger: Reclaim of $602 with volume * Target 1: $604.50 * Target 2: $606.50 (high) * Stop-loss: Below $597.50 Only possible with major market strength, such as dovish Fed cues or macro catalysts. 📌 My Thoughts: * SPY is showing signs of weakness across the board — structure, options flow, and volume confirm sellers stepping in. * Put flows are extreme (>90%), so bounces may be brief and used to reload shorts. * This is not a dip to buy blindly — best play is momentum PUTs under $597, tight risk control. * Ideal setup for zero-day or 1DTE options trades with defined exits. 📉 Conclusion: SPY failed to hold $602 Gamma Wall, rejected hard, and now tests $597 support. With options sentiment flipping negative and SMC structure breaking down, a drop to $595 or lower is increasingly likely. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade based on your plan.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Technical Analysis - Jun 16⏱️ 1‑Hour Chart Overview Key Zones * Support: $597–$601 — built on put-gamma support * Resistance: $605–$607 — topped by call-gamma walls Bias: Cautiously bullish — awaiting confirmation above $600–601 Trade Idea: * Structure: Bull call spread (600/605 strikes) * Targets: * T1: $605 (initial gamma cap) * T2: $607 (upper gamma wall) * Invalidation: Break decisively below $595 Management: * Entry: Buy near $600–601 with bullish candle and supportive volume * Scaling: Start small and layer in if price holds * Exit: * Take partial profits at $605 * Trail to $607 * Exit if SPY drops below $595 Why It Works: Gamma flows from option expiries tend to provide momentum near the spread’s strikes, and the debit structure defines both risk and reward. ⏳ 15‑Minute Chart (Intraday Entry) Setup Window: Zooming in for precise entry within 1‑hour framework What to Observe 1. Pullback to $600–601 * Look for a bullish reversal candle (hammer, engulfing) on 15‑m * Ideally, with increasing volume 2. Confirmation Signal * Break above the high of that reversal candle * Volume support confirms genuine demand 3. Momentum Alignment * Pair with an intraday oscillator (e.g., Muscle mover, RSI rising) * Candles should show higher lows or extended wick above support 15‑Minute Trade Rules * Entry: Market or limit buy on a 15‑m candle closing above reversal high (~$601) * Stop: Under that candle’s low (e.g., ~$599.50) * Profit Scaling: * Partial de‑risk at ~$605 * Full exit planned at ~$607 🚦 Multi‑Timeframe Strategy Summary 1‑Hour: Macro bias and strike framework
15‑Min: Precision entry zone & risk control
Spread Trade: Leverages GEX structure for momentum capture Risk Defined: Debit known, stops clear
Upside Potential: Push toward gamma-neutralizing walls
Flow Edge: Option hedging dynamics predominantly active around spread levels 🧠 Watchlist * Price behavior near $600–601 on 15‑m * Volume surge with bullish candle * Macro drivers: Fed noise, SPX futures action, sector rotation * Shifts in implied volatility that may affect spread pricing Trade with discipline — defined risk, entry precision, steady management.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. All trading involves risk; do your own due diligence.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
6
$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing🌀 AMEX:SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish. I’ve been tracking AMEX:SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes. 🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment. Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion. 🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows. SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies. The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone. MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25). Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end. 📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025 The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern: → Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur. Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback. 🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder: The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points. When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows. 🎯 Key Trade Levels: Breakdown Watch: → Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement Breakout Watch: → A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation 🤔 Positioning Outlook: I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show: Momentum divergence Fib exhaustion Spiral confluence Macro pressure mounting I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation. Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?
AMEX:SPYShort
by Spaceforcex