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SPY trade ideas

SPY 20% upside by Sep/OctThe last week or so seemed to be very bearish in equity markets. Looking SPY adjusted for CPI this small pullback just tested highs of 2022. Weekly candle closed right at 9 week moving average with a long bottom wick, on a high volume. Meaning buyers stepped in below 9 week MA. Anything is possible, but I am seeing further 20% or so upside on SPY before end of October. Purely based on historical market performance in the election year as well as the typical year seasonality, I do expect a correction to happen before presidential elections. I think it will happen in late October, but it could start in September just as well. I think it will be sharp, but short lived. Price could test current levels - highs of 2022 (CPI adjusted) once again.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Otradehouse
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-26 Base/Support Rally PatternThe markets are struggling to break away from the morning congestion. I, personally, want to see the SPY move above $550-551 (filling the gap) before I'm going to consider any potential upward trend. The past few days have been frustrating for me and my Cycle Patterns. The Kamala-Crush, as I call it, came out of nowhere and crushed the market trend. The SPY was holding up fairly well on Monday/Tuesday this week but was crushed on Wednesday - the Day of Biden's resignation and Kamala's take-over. I see this as traders/investors actively moving capital away from risks and profits. Now that we are nearing the end of the week, the dust will settle, and we'll move back to more normal types of trading/trending. In the next few weeks, SPY Cycle Patterns show moderate upside trending. It should be fun. Remember, stay focused on your objectives and learn to develop proper risk containment for your trading. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-26 - Top/Resistance Counter-TrendToday's Counter-trend pattern is a Top/Resistance pattern. This pattern usually reflects a price peak setup - rolling into a downward price trend. But it is in a Counter-trend formation today - so we should expect a base/bottom setup rolling into a bullish price trend. This video covers the SPY/QQQ/Gold, and I expect the "Kamala-Shakeout" may be nearly over in terms of market disruption (at least for now). I strongly believe this is a moderate price shakeout. Traders are reacting to the new Democratic nominee (Kamala Harris) and the sudden change in expectations related to the Presidential election outcome. I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me that this sudden change would be reflected throughout the global markets as a repositioning of capital (related to risks). Let's see if the markets can hold this base/bottom setup over the past 2 days. I really want to see the SPY above $550~551 to settle above my A/B level related to risks. A move back above $550-551 would indicate price has rejected the current downward swing. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
S&P dragged down by US politicsLast week, the market was significantly affected by political uncertainty in the US. Technically, everything looked decent, and there was no change in fundamentals as inflation continued to slow down and banks reported positively. Given this, I was expecting a rotation within a narrow range, but the uncertainty was too strong, causing a sell-off in all major sectors (see Market Strength Index). The only sector that showed some resilience was Financials, but even it eventually succumbed. The week closed very weak, with a bearish engulfing candle, which formally starts a weekly consolidation. It is important to remember that the market is still in a weekly uptrend, and we should treat weekly consolidations as short-term pullbacks until the price sets a convincing lower high on the weekly chart. I would expect the price to try retesting the gap from Wednesday, the 17th. Whether this retest is successful or not will determine the future of the market. It is also likely that in the coming months, the market will be very sensitive to political developments. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
$SPY July 26, 2024AMEX:SPY July 26, 2024 15 Minutes. The short below 549 worked out well. Oscillator divergence around 555 to 565 played out well in 15 minutes. Noe considering the move 565 to 546 to 556 we can expect 528 as target being 1.618 level for this move. However, 535-536 is 200 averages in 3-hour time frame, hence that will be the first target. And in 15 minutes we had a divergence between 543 and 537. So, a pullback to 547 was done. That move retraced nearly 50% for the fall 556 to 537. At the moment we have sell on rise probably until 553 is crossed being 200 averages as of now. So, for the day due to oscillator divergence in place i will not short. If there is a retracement to 544 levels depending on parameters i might take a call. Finally for the rise 493 to 566 AMEX:SPY has retraced 38.2% being 537 levels. 50% retracement would be 529 levels. Hence for the moment 528-530 is important level on downside.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 EOD Wrap-up - Kamala-CrushThis is an End Of Day wrap-up related to the continued downward price trends the US markets are experiencing. As I continue to research why the US markets are contracting so suddenly, the only thing that makes sense to me is what I call the "Kamala-Factor." Suddenly, last weekend, Kamala Harris went from the sidelines to front-n-center. Monday, everyone talked about Kamala Harris as the new Dem candidate after Biden pulled out of the race. By Tuesday night, Kamala Harris had secured enough delegates for the Dem nomination. Wednesday morning - the markets CRASHED. Today, we saw a little bounce near support, but the markets continued to sell downward into the close. As far as I'm concerned, this is actually FEAR related to Kamala's policies, plans, and leadership. Traders/investors are suddenly moving capital away from sectors they believe could be at risk of a further collapse. This is the only reasonable response to the sudden collapse of the major US indexes—gold, Silver, Oil, Transportation Index, and others—while the VIX suddenly shot up to 18+. The short story Kamala Harris scares people, particularly investors/traders and large investment firms. As a result, they are moving capital away from risk factors before the US POTUS election. We need to see the US markets find support, or we could be in for a deeper market downturn. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 : Temp-Bottom UpdateGood afternoon everyone, Today's Temp-Bottom pattern played out perfectly after what I'm calling the Kamala-Shakeout on 7/24. The SPY price is struggling to find support near the 2x StdDev lower channel and appears to have bounced higher into a new short/intermediate-term Bullish price trend. If you've been following my research, you already know how powerful and accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns are and how they do not take into account news, politics, or other outside crisis events. They are psychologically reflective of Fibonacci/Gann price cycles/structures—nothing else. I believe the SPY will attempt to squeeze higher into the close today, setting up another bottom-reversal pattern tomorrow (a counter-trend Top Reversal). The Counter-trend type suggests the pattern will be inverted. If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY move into a more solid Bullish price trend by tomorrow and then continue to try to break above the $560 level again. Here we go... Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY on weekly stays the course LONGSPY on the weekly chart is up 25% in the past six months. This is beyond its historical norms even during a presidential election year. While there has been some volatility in both directions the climb is consistent and persistent. The indicators serve to document this. The predictive algo predicts more of the same. A price cut when the fed gets around to it will serve to sustain the trend. Lack of it through the summer may cause a fade of momentum. Make hay while the sun shines.
AMEX:SPYLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
Where will this market pullback stop? (SPY)I have been traveling and enjoying the summer months, which typically are slow for trading, and have not traded this pullback but have gotten many questions for analysis as to "when will this stop ". #notfinancialadvice but I like the upcoming levels on AMEX:SPY in the 520 area. There are several levels of support creating confluence here: What I always remind folks is that "in any given year, the stock market has 2 to 3 >-5% corrections. As of writing the pullback from the high is only 4.4%. Pulling into the 520's would put the move in -6% territory and qualify as a "healthy" pullback. There is a major Volume Profile level at 529 from back in May where I presume so much volume was "sold in May" The prior All Time High from April is at 524. The Daily Ichimoku cloud, which has very well contained the trend since November 2023, exists in this area and time to provide dynamic support. Trade (and invest) wisely!
AMEX:SPY
by norok
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-25 - Deep Low Bottom (Gap Fill) This is a rather long video (about 23 minutes) - but I wanted to go over the unique situation presented to us with what I'm calling the "Kamala Shakeout" related to yesterday's deep selling trend. This video is very clear. We are still in a technical Bearish trend, and I've highlighted the levels needed to switch to a Bullish trend. Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp-Bottom. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to identify support and roll upward - starting a price reversion that may see the price move above $555 over the next 2~5+ days. But, right now, I'm more concerned with early morning selling pressure trying to fill the GAP Window from early June. Remember, I'm trying to suggest a pattern reaction (a Temp-Bottom pattern) while highlighting the KEY Ultimate382 levels as confirmation levels for Bullish or Bearish trending. Yesterday's big selling move was, in my opinion, related to unknowns focused on Kamala Harris' run for POTUS. I believe the markets were waiting for any catalyst related to the uncertainties of a Harris Presidency, and those concerns were reflected in the selling pressure we saw yesterday. Here we go. Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
SPY What Next? SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The market is trading on 554.68 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 546.76 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
1
Be ready buy the dip soon all new highs coming All new highs in SMH QQQ SPY XLF coming get ready IWM will test 245 not sure new highs possibly Why the rally well every Tom Dick Harry will buy the crap of NVDA AVGO ECT Even me not yet We all been waiting on this pull back I like see lower Feel good noise rate cuts Trumps gonna win More lies on inflation jobs ect This rally will be massive and go into election then IMHO its done how high I say SPY 600 Like see test 50 day MA hold
AMEX:SPYLong
by john12
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-24 : Review & The Kamala ShakeoutAfter a long drive and trying to get through LA, I wanted to discuss what I believe is taking place in the US/Global markets. What I call the "Kamala Shakeout". Over the past few weeks, there has been much news related to Trump/Biden and the potential election consequences. But all of those expectations changed because of two rather large events.. _ the assassination attempt on Trump _ Biden's withdrawal from the race - resulting in Kamala Harris's rise. Now, I believe the markets are starting to digest the amount and scale of uncertainty related to a new POTUS candidate (with almost no knowledge of her policies, plans, and expectations) and the outcome in November (only 90+ days away). IMO, what we are seeing right now is actual FEAR related to the unknown factors centered around Kamala Harris. I believe voters and businesses already had expectations related to Biden/Trump (either outcome) based on the past 8 years. Now, with Kamala Harris, who knows what the expectations are related to plans, policies, and expectations? That is why the markets rolled as hard as they did today. The markets are pricing a new degree of uncertainty and will continue the Kamala Shakeout until the dust settles. I'll fill you in with more details tomorrow morning. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?Contrary to what everyone believes is going to happen: "We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after" "There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year" I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid. Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction. There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals. However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future. I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months). If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
9
SPY BUY+++++ oversold!! Holding 50 dmaToday and yesterday were beyond frustrating. Yesterday my $550 puts did nothing and today my $550 calls went to crap. Way oversold on 4 hour and under charts this will bounce to $552.82 - $555 levels but likely 1 hour after my calls expire. I am not sure the last time the SPY has lost $12 in a single day with no bounce!! We could easily have a + $8-10 day tomorrow or the next because this is way oversold and many will be caught short when it's time to go long
AMEX:SPYLong
by ShortSeller76