SPY trade ideas
$SPY Positioning for New Highs After a Pullback.. $650-$700??SPY remains in a bullish trend until proven otherwise, but I’m anticipating a short-term pullback before the next leg higher. My current outlook sees downside potential toward the $555 level, where I expect a potential reversal. From there, I believe SPY is on track to retest and eventually break through all-time highs at $613. Until I see confirmation at $555 or signs of structural breakdown, I’m treating this pullback as a buying opportunity—not a reversal.
SPY - Ground Up Multi-Time Frame Analysis!Lots of interesting algorithms at play here between the LTF and HTF algorithms. We need to be very cautious before entering long-term positions.
But, there will be great opportunities to take LTF trades once we start seeing our green tapered buying proving itself and/or a respect and proof of a selling channel like orange or red
Happy Trading :)
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 9–13, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 9–13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📱 Apple WWDC & Tech Momentum
Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference kicks off Monday with CEO Tim Cook set to discuss new products, services, and likely AI initiatives—tracks should watch include impacts on NASDAQ:AAPL and AI-related stocks
🧨 GameStop Eyed for Crypto Pivot
GameStop (a meme-stock darling) reports earnings Tuesday. Markets are watching for updates on its $500M bitcoin investment and potential pivot toward crypto-driven revenue streams
🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks in London
High-level trade dialogue begins Monday between U.S. and Chinese representatives in London, offering possible relief to trade tensions and providing a lift to risk assets
📉 Key Inflation Data Midweek
Wednesday brings the May CPI release—crucial for assessing tariff-driven inflation trends and likely to influence Fed policy outlook ahead of next month’s meeting
💹 Oil Markets React to Trade Uncertainty
Oil prices are stable to slightly up ahead of trade talks, as Brent holds around $66/barrel—reflecting balanced supply concerns and hopes for easing global tensions
🌐 G7 Summit and Global Policy Risks
G7 finance ministers convene in Canada (50th anniversary), tackling trade strains, Russia–Ukraine, and inflation. Global macrospoilers could trigger renewed volatility
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 9
Apple WWDC begins (CEO keynote)
U.S.–China trade talks start in London
📅 Tuesday, June 10
GameStop Q2 earnings (+ bitcoin update)
NFIB Small Business Index (6:00 AM ET)
📅 Wednesday, June 11
8:30 AM ET – Consumer Price Index (May)
Watch for inflation signal from tariffs.
8:30 AM ET – Core CPI (May)
Core inflation trend under scrutiny.
📅 Thursday, June 12
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May)
Early check on wholesale inflation
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
📅 Friday, June 13
10:00 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June, preliminary)
Consumer mood and tariff impact insights
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for informational/educational purposes only. Not financial advice. See a licensed advisor before making investing decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Attempting Breakout Above ResistanceSPY (S&P500 ETF) price is attempting to breakout above Daily resistance levels of $594 and $597.
SPY ETF has been in an uptrend since May 2025. A Golden Cross also occured on May 19th 2025, signaling that a potential longer term bullish rally could occur.
Friday's candle closed as a Doji signaling some potential indecision after recent price volatility.
SPY price is not at any extreme level on the Daily chart.
If SPY price ever gaps up and rallies up to the $612 to $620 resistance zone, price could sell off stronger (short-term).
In June 2025, trade deal and inflation news will most likely be the catalyst for further volatility, in addition to government news announcements.
SPY CHANNEL JUNSPY ( AMEX:SPY ) – Multi-Timeframe Volatility Channel Analysis
SPY remains inside a well-defined ascending volatility channel across all key timeframes (2h, 4h, Daily, Weekly), confirming a strong bullish structure with clear institutional control.
🔸 Short-Term (2h – 4h):
Consolidating between 590 and 605, with recent rejection from upper bounds.
Multiple PUT positions triggered near 599 and 603, suggesting institutional hedging.
Key support: 590. Below that, watch for downside toward 586 or 576.
🔸 Mid-Term (Daily):
Bullish channel still intact.
As long as price holds above EMA20 at 585.77, the trend remains bullish.
Breakout above 608 opens targets toward 611 (gap) and then 617–620.
🔸 Long-Term (Weekly):
Weekly channel projects targets up to 635 if structure holds.
Strong institutional resistance zone between 607 and 611.
SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06📈 SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06
Bias: Moderately Bullish
Timeframe: 3–4 weeks
Catalysts: Strong institutional flows, trade talk optimism, solid jobs report
Trade Type: Long equity position
🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Bias Entry Stop Loss Take Profit Holding Period Confidence
DS Moderately Bullish $600.02 $595.54 $618.02 3 weeks 65%
LM Moderately Bullish $598.50 $586.70 $616–618 3–4 weeks 75%
GK Strongly Bullish $600.02 $592.00 $610.00 4 weeks 72%
GM Moderately Bullish ~$600.50 $587.50 $627.50 3–4 weeks 70%
CD Moderately Bullish $600–600.50 $585.00 $620 / $635 3–4 weeks 72%
✅ Consensus: SPY is in a bullish trend across timeframes
⚠️ Disagreements: MACD momentum and entry/pullback levels
🔍 Technical & Sentiment Summary
Trend: SPY above 10/50/200 EMAs on all models
RSI: 60–61 → bullish but not overbought
MACD: Mostly positive, DS cautious on daily histogram
Support Levels: $591.06, $595.54, $597.26
Resistance Zones: $600.83, $605.21, $610
VIX: 17.6 (declining), supports risk-on sentiment
News: Trade talk optimism and strong jobs data fueling momentum
✅ Final Trade Setup
Parameter Value
Instrument SPY
Strategy LONG
Entry Price $600.00
Stop Loss $588.00
Take Profit $625.00
Position Size 83 shares (1% risk on $100K)
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 70%
💡 Rationale: Aligned bullish signals across timeframes, falling VIX, and strong macro sentiment favor a trend continuation move toward $625. Position sized for conservative risk management.
⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
MACD divergence could signal near-term stall
Resistance zone at $605 may act as a cap
Macro volatility: Strong jobs could raise rate expectations
VIX Watch: A spike above 20 could reverse market trend
Exit Protocol: Consider closing if SPY closes below the 10-day EMA (~$591)
📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT
🎯 Instrument: SPY
📈 Direction: LONG
💰 Entry Price: 600.0
🛑 Stop Loss: 588.0
🎯 Take Profit: 625.0
📊 Size: 83 shares
💪 Confidence: 70%
⏰ Entry Timing: Open
SPY Macro Analysis: Premium-Discount Dynamics, Trade Setup etc..Macro Perspective:
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently consolidating in a critical premium zone, with a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Economic uncertainty and broader market sentiment suggest a cautious approach, particularly with upcoming economic events (e.g., Fed policy updates, inflation data). The equilibrium level (~599) appears to be pivotal for directional bias.
Technical Breakdown
Premium Zone (599.80–606.19):
Price is testing key resistance levels near Fibonacci 0.886 and 2.618 extensions. A failure here could signal a bearish reversal.
A sustained breakout beyond 606.19 would open doors to higher targets (612–617.50).
Discount Zone (585–577):
A retracement into this zone could attract buyers looking for value entries.
Key support: 565.51 (swing low, potential liquidity grab).
Volume Dynamics:
Noticeable spikes at resistance levels, suggesting potential liquidity sweeps before a decisive move.
Trade Setup
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Entry: Upon breakout and close above 606.19.
Stop-Loss: Below 604 (to avoid fakeouts).
Targets: 612 (initial), 617.50 (extended).
Risk-Reward: Maintain at least 1:3.
Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal
Entry: Upon rejection from the premium zone (~599–606).
Stop-Loss: Above 607.
Targets: 585 (initial), 577 (secondary).
Risk-Reward: At least 1:4.
Scenario 3: Discount Rebound
Entry: Bullish price action confirmation within the 585–577 range (e.g., engulfing candle, double bottom).
Stop-Loss: Below 575.
Targets: 599 (initial), 606.19 (secondary).
Risk-Reward: Adjust based on entry levels.
Risk Management
Position Sizing: Use no more than 2% of your account per trade.
Confirmation: Wait for clear price action signals or key volume levels to confirm entries.
Trailing Stop: Consider trailing stops to lock in profits during trending moves.
Macro Insights
Keep an eye on macroeconomic drivers like inflation data, job reports, and Federal Reserve commentary.
Correlation with bond yields and volatility (e.g., VIX) could provide additional cues for market sentiment.
💡 Pro Tip: Patience pays—let the price come to you. Always stick to your plan and maintain discipline in both entries and exits.
Big BAT Little Deep Crab on SPY WTF is going on with the marketI don't know what to make of this market but the BAT completed and what looked like a cup and handle is starting to look like a BAT and a deep crab. The deep Crab finishes right around a trendline I have that goes way back.
Publishing for tracking purposes
#SPY
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 5, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 5, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings Surprise to Upside
U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.39 million in April—well above forecasts—indicating that labor demand remains robust despite macro headwinds and trade-policy uncertainty
🛢️ OPEC+ Greenlights July Supply Increase
OPEC+ agreed to boost production by 411 K barrels per day starting in July, adding downward pressure to oil prices and weighing on energy equities
📈 Fed’s John Williams Signals Patience
New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that the Fed sees no urgency to cut rates, citing mixed inflation signals and a balanced labor market—keeping investors cautious on rate-cut timing
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, June 5:
8:30 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (April)
Measures total U.S. job vacancies, a leading indicator of labor-market strength.
10:00 AM ET – OPEC+ Press Conference (Post-Meeting)
Details on production quotas for July, guiding energy market supply expectations.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY WILL 100% Hit ATH By End Of July! SPY is loaded up for a breakout run. All-time highs isn't even a question, but when is — and my bet is before July ends , honestly before end of June. In this idea, I go over key support levels, resistance zones, and the momentum shifts pointing toward a bullish continuation.
$SPY market COULD trend till nov25' (confirmation this month)I like to write today,
I see AMEX:SPY at a critical point right now, Im ultra long stocks and hedged today with a short AMEX:SPY ,
because:
We reached the target of a quarterly trend and didnt go higher for a long time.
We have a strange political situation which news affect the markets (more than usually) (positive and negative).
Were coiling at the top again after an insane rally from the lows.
But there are reasons to be bullish:
If we stay up this month we can form another longterm signal (6 month) until end of october and see an insane continuation rally. Target would be about 720 in AMEX:SPY and I guess its above all targets from US Banks for S&P.
Lets see whats coming and play it safe and with some calculated risks, its not safe out there but there are many oppurtunities.
1 step better every day, every week, every month and every year - my wish for you.
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Testing Resistance Trendline - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price is currently testing a resistance trendline above ($593 to $595 price levels).
SPY price in the medium-term has been uptrending since April and May 2025.
SPY price in the short-term has been consolidating sideways, and a large volume breakout or breakdown has not occurred yet.
The 12EMA (blue line) has been holding as support for 5 trading days. Resistance targets to the upside would be $598 to $600.
The grey gap and the 26EMA (purple line) are downside support targets if a rally does not occur this month ($576 to $567).
Breaking news and tariff trade deals are supposed to occur in June and July 2025.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Slump Persists
U.S. manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with new orders, backlogs, production, and employment all declining. Trade-war disruptions and elevated input costs continue to squeeze factory margins, setting the stage for today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release
🌐 Global Trade Tensions Weigh on Stocks
Renewed U.S.–China tariff threats sent the S&P 500 lower overnight, as investors fear higher costs for exporters and slower global growth. Futures pointed to another rough open for $SPY/ SP:SPX
📈 China Caixin PMI Exceeds Expectations
China’s May Caixin Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.8, signaling stabilization in export-oriented factories despite ongoing trade uncertainty. That positive surprise may offer some support to Asian equities today
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 3:
8:30 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Measures U.S. factory-sector health; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Today’s survey will confirm if the May downturn persists.
10:00 AM ET – Construction Spending (April) Tracks monthly change in total construction outlays—an important gauge of housing and infrastructure investment trends.
1:00 PM ET – 10-Year Treasury Note Auction Benchmark auction that influences the yield curve. Weak demand or higher yields here can pressure equities, especially growth-oriented sectors.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Breakdown Watch – Smart Money Concepts (1H Chart)🔎 Chart: SPY | TradingView 1H
At Wavervanir International LLC, our discretionary analysis on SPY (S&P 500 ETF) using SMC + ORB logic is signaling potential downside.
🔍 Market Structure:
CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed after BOS (Break of Structure), suggesting buyer exhaustion.
Premium zone rejection with multiple failed attempts to reclaim the weak high.
Liquidity has shifted toward discount zones, aligning with volume imbalance and OB zones below.
🎯 Target Zones:
Immediate liquidity pool: 579.85
Demand block confluence: 575–565 zone
Deep mitigation OB: 560–557.50 zone
📊 Macro Context:
Bond volatility rising (MOVE index)
Fed holding rates steady, inflation stickiness remains
Liquidity tightening into quarter-end
🧠 Strategic View:
SPY looks poised to fill inefficiencies into the 575–565 range unless macro tailwinds emerge. Volume supports this as market seeks equilibrium post-premium rejection.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 Debt-Ceiling Deal Advances
The U.S. House passed a bipartisan framework extending the federal borrowing limit through September, easing immediate default fears and lifting risk assets.
📉 Bond Yields Retreat
After surging above 4.6% earlier this week, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back toward 4.5%, helping equities recover from recent rate-driven pullbacks.
⛽ Oil Inventories Jump
API data showed a 5.2 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, sending oil prices lower and weighing on energy sector names.
🚗 Tesla Price Cut Spurs EV Rally
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) cut Model 3 prices by 3% in the U.S., igniting a broader EV stock rally as investors priced in renewed demand ahead of summer driving season.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 30:
8:30 AM ET: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April
Measures core inflation trends—Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer-price pressures.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales for April
Tracks signed contracts on existing homes; a leading indicator for the housing market.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 29, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚫 U.S. Trade Court Blocks Tariffs
A federal trade court struck down key sections of President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, sending U.S. stock futures sharply higher as investors anticipate reduced input costs for industrials and manufacturers
🌐 Markets Drift on Lack of Fresh Catalysts
Global equity markets showed muted moves today—stocks dipped and bond yields rose—as traders awaited new drivers of direction, with Nvidia’s ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) mixed earnings doing little to spark a decisive trend
📈 Bond Yields Climb, Pressuring Equities
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.6%, its highest in a month, on concerns over federal borrowing and fading rate-cut expectations, dragging the S&P 500 down more than 1% by midday
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 29:
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP
Provides the first estimate of U.S. economic growth in Q1, a critical gauge of recession risk and Fed policy direction.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income & Spending (April)
Tracks household earnings and outlays, offering insight into consumer resilience amid rising living costs.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis