Bearish 5% or 8% ?The previous two correction cycles lasted about one month, with a correction of approximately 6% and 8%. How much will this one be?
SPY trade ideas
SPY 15m Analysis: FVGs and Key Levels for Next MovesOverview
This idea focuses on the SPY 15-minute chart, highlighting key fair value gaps (FVGs) and critical support/resistance levels. The current price action shows potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios, contingent on price reactions at crucial levels.
Bearish Scenario
Key Level to Watch:
If SPY closes below 566.44, it signals further downside momentum. Traders should look for the formation of the next Bearish FVG to initiate short positions.
Projected Target:
First Target: 550–555 zone (likely demand zone or support area).
Downward momentum is supported by the recent sharp sell-off, indicating heavy selling pressure.
Invalidation:
A sustained move back above 588.85 will weaken bearish momentum.
Bullish Scenario
Key Level to Watch:
For any upward momentum, a Bullish FVG must form above the current price, likely in the 588.85–595.79 range.
Projected Target:
First Target: 595.79
Second Target: 600+, where stronger resistance may emerge.
Invalidation:
Failure to hold above 588.85 could result in further selling pressure.
Volume and Momentum Considerations
While individual candlestick volume isn't displayed, the rapid decline hints at increased selling pressure. Monitor volume closely during retests for confirmation of strength or weakness in price action.
Plan Your Trade:
Use clear invalidation levels to manage risk.
Wait for price confirmation (e.g., closing below 566.44 or a bullish FVG forming above 588.85).
Utilize stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected reversals.
Conclusion
This setup allows for flexibility, focusing on key zones and volume confirmation. The bias leans bearish, but a bullish retracement cannot be ruled out if price action shifts momentum. Keep an eye on FVG formations for entry signals.
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones.
Market Structure Analysis
* Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction.
* Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase.
* Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears.
Supply and Demand Zones
* Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce).
* Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts).
Order Blocks and Support/Resistance
* Key Resistance:
* $591: A psychological and structural level.
* $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level.
* Key Support:
* $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572.
* $567: A crucial lower-level support.
Key Indicators
* EMA:
* 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum.
* MACD:
* Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative.
* RSI:
* Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce.
Options Flow and GEX
* Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong.
* Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward.
* Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum.
Scalping vs. Swing Outlook
* Scalping:
* Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578.
* Swing Trading:
* Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590.
Actionable Suggestions
1. Short-Term Bullish:
* Entry: Near $580 support.
* Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance.
* Stop-Loss: Below $578.
2. Short-Term Bearish:
* Entry: On rejection at $590.
* Exit: Target $580 or lower.
* Stop-Loss: Above $592.
Conclusion
SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
$SPY - Will the right shoulder form?AMEX:SPY It's still too early, but there's a chance this could develop into a head and shoulders pattern.
Will the right shoulder form?
SPY 65 MinutesNeed to recapture 590 or we dial 911.
Looking at 65 minute timeframes, seems to me that we need to get 590 by friday so the bull parade gets going
SPY GETS FROTHY
We might see all post election gains erased before year end, are you a BULL or a BEAR...... is the Santa rally over?! What say you?
SPY to $585?: EOY Price TargetUsing the Magic Linear Regression Channel on TradingView.com we look at some possible scenarios for SPY price movement. A shorter term regression channel shows SPY at the top of the channel and rejecting it today - even with more buyers than sellers in the TradingView Volume Footprint chart view.
The bottom of the channel converges with last pivot low near $584. It could conceivable go lower, but with lower volume likely during the holiday season, it would seem less likely for it to make any more big moves barring some major unexpected event.
S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈
The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔
🔍 **What’s driving the move?**
- 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer.
- 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts.
- ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations.
📊 **Why It Matters?**
- If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀
- A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉
👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?**
Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
Grinch drop, Santa popSPY is at it's 2 year trend channel resistance level. There's very little upside reward left. There's a greater downside risk. The Grinch may try to steal Christmas with a temporary SPY drop towards support. But then a Santa Claus rally will pop SPY back up to it's resistance level.
SPY 2 year trend channel levels:
resistance = 605
pivot = 585
support = 565
trade ideas:
1) collar strategy
hold 100 shares
sell 585 call
buy 605 put
2) buy 605 put
3) short call spread
sell 585 call
buy 605 call
4) long put spread
buy 605 put
sell 585 put
SPY options data:
12/6/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 219,329
Call Volume Total 125,297
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.75
Put Open Interest Total 750,130
Call Open Interest Total 233,054
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.22
12/13/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 69,042
Call Volume Total 43,893
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.57
Put Open Interest Total 317,687
Call Open Interest Total 228,869
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.39
12/20/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 336,702
Call Volume Total 139,171
Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.42
Put Open Interest Total 3,273,537
Call Open Interest Total 1,426,800
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.29
12/27/24 expiry
Put Volume Total 13,062
Call Volume Total 14,931
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.87
Put Open Interest Total 72,224
Call Open Interest Total 59,538
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21
1/17/25 LEAPS
Put Volume Total 191,268
Call Volume Total 63,574
Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.01
Put Open Interest Total 2,376,812
Call Open Interest Total 855,976
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.78
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 2-Hour Time Frame Analysis Current Current Market Overview
As of December 2024, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is showing a bullish trend with the following technical indicators:
MACD : Suggests a buy signal.
RSI : Indicates a neutral signal.
Moving Averages: Both 20-day and 50-day moving averages suggest a buy signal.
Price Action: The support level is at US$600.96, and the resistance level is at US$607.46.
Options Strategy Recommendations
1. Long Call
trade_id: g-663257
Signal: Bullish
Option Strategy: Long Call
Current Price: US$605.57
Strike Price: US$550.00
Expiry Date: 20-Dec-2024
Buy/Sell: Buy
Call/Put: Call
Premium: US$55.46
Stop loss: US$49.91
Take profit: US$61.01
Probability of Profit: 51.4%
Implied Volatility: 96.81%
Max Loss: US$-5546.00
Max Gain: ∞ (infinity)
Break-even price: US$605.46
Days to Expiration: 2
Rationale: This strategy is designed to capitalize on a bullish outlook for SPY, with a high probability of profit and a defined risk-reward profile.
Conclusion
The SPY is currently in a consolidation phase, and the recommended options strategy provides an opportunity to capitalize on potential bullish market movements. The Long Call offers a high probability of profit with defined risk, allowing for profit from significant price movements in the upward direction.
(GET READY) The expected move for FOMC in SPYThe expected move for FOMC in SPY
After making new all-time highs on Friday, December 6, we have been consolidating back to the 30 minute 200 moving average. You could see how we’ve been chopping around sideways along the 35 EMA back to the 30 minute 200 moving average. So we are just above that 30 minute 200 moving average yesterday we closed directly above it with the 35 EMA directly above that and so far this morning we are above those two levels. We are in that down gap from Monday, going into Tuesday so possible level of resistance around 607 and then we have the one hour 200 average at the very bottom of the implied move.
So the implied move is between 600 to 609 and on tomorrow’s contract for Thursday 599 to 610.
I’m taking a little short break from making videos because they are very time-consuming and in December in this month with everything going on I just don’t have time to make them, but I will be getting back to that in January and for now I’ll still be posting these still charts
GL, y’all
$SPY December 18, 2024AMEX:SPY December 18, 2024
15 Minutes.
Downtrend intact.
AMEX:SPY below 50,100 and 200 averages.
Any pull back to 605-606 levels will be shorted.
My Initial target is 600 which is also 200 averages in 60 minutes.
I will go long at the moment only above 608 levels.
Morning Overview: FED Decision W/ Sticky InflationThe FED is set to make a decision on interest rate cuts todays. The market has them priced in already and I doubt the FED wants to surprise markets. Going forward into 2025 I don't think they cut in Q1 for this reason.
This video covers:
* patterns in tech stocks that resemble some climatic activity.
* patterns in consumer stocks
* Trades I currently in
* One Good Trade series trades
* Possible setups for today
Spy Looks Bullish With a 15min bullish FVG forming S&P 500 (SPY) Price Action Analysis
Current Price and Technical Overview
Current Price: $605.28 (as of last close on 17-Dec-2024)
Market Status: Closed
Day Change: +$0.99 (+0.16%)
Technical Analysis Summary
Overall Signal: Bullish
Oscillators: Predominantly 'Hold', with the Momentum Indicator suggesting a 'Buy'.
Moving Averages: Strong bullish signals from short-term and medium-term averages.
Pattern: Breakout above resistance indicates a bullish trend.
Resistance Level: Potential price target near $608.65.
Pivot Point Analysis: Price is above the pivot level of $606.59, supporting bullish sentiment.
News Sentiment
Sentiment: Entirely positive, likely to drive buying activity and support upward price movement.
Interpretation
The technical indicators for SPY suggest a bullish stance. The strong signals from moving averages and the breakout above resistance levels indicate potential for further gains. The positive news sentiment reinforces this outlook, suggesting a likelihood of price appreciation in the near term.
Trading Strategy Consideration
Given the bullish outlook, traders might consider entering long positions or call options on a retest of the pivot level at $606.59, aiming for the next leg up towards the resistance level of $608.65. However, it's crucial to monitor for any signs of reversal or changes in sentiment that could impact this strategy.
SPY Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX Analysis for Dec. 181. Daily Chart (1D)
* Trend: SPY is trading within a well-established upward channel. The price recently hit resistance at the upper channel line (~609), suggesting overbought conditions.
* Support Levels:
* 590: Key short-term support, aligned with the lower EMA support.
* 577-571: Major support zone; a breakdown here signals a bearish shift.
* Resistance:
* 609-610: Upper trendline resistance. SPY has failed to hold above this range.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish divergence forming as momentum weakens while price pushes higher.
* Volume: Strong volume uptick at recent highs, suggesting possible distribution.
Bias: The daily chart signals caution, with a potential pullback to 602-604 (middle channel) or further to 590.
2. Hourly Chart (1H)
* Price Action: SPY shows rejection from the upper resistance (~609) and is trending downward towards key intraday support at 602-603.
* Support/Resistance:
* Support: 602 (highest PUT Wall in GEX), 604 (confluence of EMA and PUT Wall).
* Resistance: 607-608 (CALL resistance).
* Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover; momentum remains negative.
* Trendlines: SPY is testing lower channel support on this timeframe.
Bias: SPY is likely to remain range-bound between 603-607 for now. A break below 602 could accelerate downside pressure.
3. GEX Analysis
* Key GEX Levels:
* 607: CALL Resistance (1.25%). Likely an upper cap.
* 603: Highest negative NETGEX/PUT Support. This level is critical; breaking below it increases bearish momentum.
* 602: Second PUT Wall (-32.62%), significant downside target.
* Options Oscillator: Indicates PUT dominance with 56.9% Puts versus Calls.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 16.7 — IV remains low, suggesting minimal volatility expectation.
GEX Insight: The options market suggests 603 is the battleground. Bulls need to reclaim 607 to push higher, while bears will attempt to defend the PUT-heavy zones at 603-602.
Trade Outlook for SPY
* Bearish Setup: Look for rejection at 605-607. A breakdown below 603 can target 602, with potential downside extension to 600.
* Bullish Setup: A strong rebound off 603 with volume could signal a push back to test 607. Break above 608 confirms bullish continuation.
Conclusion
SPY remains at a critical juncture near upper resistance. Monitor 603 closely, as a break or bounce here will dictate short-term direction. Options GEX levels highlight a PUT-heavy market, favoring bearish pressure unless bulls reclaim higher ground.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
Spy Short Well Well Guys, Yes I'm going to continue to go short especially this week with the big big decision of rate cuts Wednesday, if not this Friday or Monday 600 target I'm definitely out of the short position for now!! The New Narrative Trend by the way, is Insane how the results have been so far if you want more info content is out right now about it, generational wealth will be made!! And Yes you can still get in!!! Goodluck Traders and I will Follow Up With Spy on Tuesday
Spy under falls under 605 602 for sure that's when we should see blood in the streets
QQQ forget about it its A short 1st target $528
SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020 there are many rectangles
SPY analysis for Dec-18Watch out for important key levels.
Break above $605.85 with bar close will open bullish trade.
Break above $602.15 with bar close will open bearsih trade.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-17: Momentum Rally PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will rally higher - possibly attempting to find a top.
What I find interesting is the big rally in the QQQ/Nasdaq yesterday. Possibly, the Momentum Rally phase hit the NQ yesterday.
Overall, I'm still looking for the markets to attempt to roll into a topping pattern. So, I'm staying very cautious of any big market moves right now.
Yes, if you look at the QQQ/NQ, it looks like the markets are in liftoff mode (bullish), but other data suggests the markets are actually weakening and pulling into a reversion phase.
Gold and Silver will likely find a base/bottom soon. I picked up some Call options on SILJ and GDX recently anticipating the potential rally move.
Bitcoin is well beyond a 100% measured move higher. Even though I believe Bitcoin can rally to 112k - 115k, I'm urging traders to stay cautious (still).
My data suggests the markets are weakening and possibly moving into a pullback/reversion phase.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Options: Bull & Bear (Week of December 16)AMEX:SPY
Short-term we are looking at a downside trade as we want RSI to cool off a bit. Key levels at $607 and our key pivot of $604.25 last week.
📜 $604 Put 12/31
Entry: Rejection and 15-min close UNDER $607, entry off retest of resistance
🎯 Targets: $604.25, $603.37
📜 $608 Call 12/31
Entry: Breakout and 15 min close OVER $607, entry off retest of support
🎯 Targets: $608, $608.50
Bias for Today: Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long on Short with Bearish FVGs or Flip Long entering Calls on the First Bullish Fair Value Gap.
AMEX:SPY "Today's market bias is to open with a short outlook. If bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) start to form and price respects them, I’ll look to enter short positions targeting lower levels. However, if price bounces off these zones and a bullish FVG forms, I will shift focus to initiate long positions on the first bullish FVG that sets up cleanly. Watching for clear confirmations and respecting key price action levels will be critical. Let’s stay adaptive to what the market gives us!"
