SPY go BOOMTrying to stop overthinking things. The Fed has kept demand destruction nice and smooth and slow and steady. I think where the market headed may just be this simple.
SPY trade ideas
Spy Road To $600 Lets Go Spy we hit our 588 mark now we will see the low 590's , Hope a lot of you have been following my lead , you would have been destroying this market, Goodluck to all traders lets continue
Happy October!I think I have been around for... 3 Octobers so far? Probably, and each time I always do a themed post! Since October is my favourite time of the year.
October also marks the beginning of the end. The end of a trading year at the end of this new quarter. And in the interest of going all out with different October themes and providing you with information into the year end, I suspect this will be a lengthy post, not simply talking about what to expect for October, but also talking about the bigger picture into the end of the year and trading year.
I guess we can break it down, we can break it down to the short term, next week, the month then the EOY.
The Short Term
The short term (i.e. next week) is, again, looking bullish. Expect some downside days, but just generally look for bullishness. Momentum is lacking. Ironically we are experiencing price action I call "Zombie Buying". Most call it "grinding" but its zombie buying.
What that means is, there is 0 momentum, low volume, but 0 reason to sell. So we have small buyers, like retail, buying because, well, there is nothing else to do, and so we get a slow and painful grind up. Its mindless buying, for no reason, so hence why I call it "zombie buying".
You can see volume, while steady, has been lackluster.
Its more than likely we will see bearishness at points next week. Outlook is more bearish on QQQ for Monday than SPY, so SPY may end up just grinding and trying to move higher, while QQQ sees a bit of a sell. But the motto remains to buy the dip.
The immediate target for next week is a move back to 569.29.
If we take a look at the last week's worth of Volume nodes:
Those are our top POCs/volume zones that you can look for from last week's trading, with the lowest being at 568.68, which would serve as an ideal pullback zone.
The best fit forecasted high for SPY next week is 577.60, assuming a bullish bias.
And for the low its 563.62 assuming a bearish bias.
The Larger Outlook, Month and EOY
So, as we are in a new quarter, we have some new high probability targets.
We still need to see 585 into EOY. 585 is actually the quarter point forecast, so that is great news!
However, with the new quarter, we now have a bit of a bearish high prob on SPX as well:
5,657 is the SPX target. We have yet to hit it, so if we don't pullback into next week enough to remove it, and we run up to the 585 first, it will make for a nice pullback play towards EOY.
If we run an ARIMA on SPX (Because I don't want to disrupt my SPY art already haha):
The point forecast for SPX, over the next 75 ish trading days into EOY, is 6,232. This is a price of around 621 on SPY.
Do I think it goes that high?
Probably not, especailly with the lack of momentum we are seeing come in. But it is possible. With the gains SPY has already made, its hard to see how much more they push it on a Santa Rally, but I think anticipation of the low 600s, to 600 is not impossible.
Its interesting as well because if we go back to my beggining of year post for SPY, these were the ARIMA results:
80% Confidence that the true high of SPY next year will fall BELOW 591.
95% Confidence that the true high of SPY next year will fall BELOW 633.
80% Confidence that the true low of SPY next year will fall ABOVE 433.
95% confidence that the true low of SPY next year will fall ABOVE 391.
So we knew as early as January that 600s were in the realm of possibility this year.
591 is something I do anticipate seeing at this point.
So what is the answer for the "longer term"?
I don't see any downturn starting before next year. And by downturn I mean bear market, correction, whatever you want to call it. I just don't see it happening until next year.
The immediate anticipation is the move to 585. From there, perhaps we grind up on the Santa rally to 591 and potentially 600 to snag closer to the 95% range.
This would be enough to cause a correction/pullback, if not just another 10% crash.
The outlook for next year will remain to be assessed closer to that point. As of now, these are the targets I would be watching. Downside targets remain inconsequential at this point, imo.
I guess that's it!
Safe trades everyone and Happy October!!
SPY bounce to $580MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom of upward trending channels (period 52 39 & 26)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
VBSM is spiked negative, just like September
Price at near Fibonacci level, 0.618 retracement
In at open on Monday. I would like to see price gap down to $563 (0.5 fib retrace), or $557 (100 period channel). My plan is to buy 1 position at Monday's open, 1 more position at $563 and 3 positions at $537.35.
Stop loss is 1% of my purchase on Monday.
Target is $580 or channel top
SPY TradingSPY Technical Analysis using different indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, EMAs, volume profiles, etc.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-6 : Breakaway Post-ElectionWow. All I can say is WOW.
Keeping a different schedule related to the markets had me in bed at about 9PM California time. Yea, I missed most of it last night. But my wife woke me up at midnight to tell me who won.
When I got up this morning (early) and checked the markets, it sure looked like the world voted in favor of the Trump win, with a solid 2-3% rally overnight.
This is where things start to get very interesting.
We have about 70+ days until the inauguration (Jan 21, I believe). Between now and then, the US and global markets will attempt to shift towards new policies and expectations.
Part of this will come from news, but much of it will come from policy expectations.
Some sectors will shift direction. Others will extend existing trends.
Smart traders should prepare for opportunities that align with their interests and realize that we are looking at some real risks over the next 4+ years.
What I will state is I continue to believe the next 5-7+ years are the greatest opportunity of your life.
Watch my video and buckle up. The markets are seeking a new base/frequency to transition into shifting expectations.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY Technical Analysis for Scalping tomorrow Nov. 6, 2024Price Action Analysis
Support and Resistance:
Resistance levels appear around $583.32 and $584.46 based on recent highs, which SPY could test if bullish momentum continues.
Support levels are near $574.32 and $567.89. If SPY pulls back, these levels may serve as areas where buyers might step in.
Trend Analysis:
SPY recently broke above a downtrend line (visible in the chart), which suggests a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
The price is currently trading above the 161 EMA and 15 EMA, indicating an uptrend in the short term. This aligns with bullish sentiment.
Volume:
There was a notable increase in volume during the recent breakout, which can confirm the strength of this upward movement.
Indicators
MACD: The MACD appears to be in a bullish crossover, which supports the potential for continued upward movement.
Moving Averages (161 EMA and 15 EMA): The 15 EMA is above the 161 EMA, which is typically a bullish sign, especially for scalping.
Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow
Bullish Scenario:
If SPY opens above $579 and maintains that level, consider an entry near $579 with a potential target around $583.32 to $584.46.
Set a stop loss just below $578 to manage risk if it fails to hold above the current support level.
Bearish Scenario:
If SPY fails to hold above $579 and breaks below the support at $574.32, consider a short entry around $574 with a target near $567.89.
Place a stop loss slightly above $575 to minimize potential losses.
Suggested Direction
Given the recent breakout and bullish crossover of the moving averages, the momentum leans bullish. However, it’s essential to monitor if SPY can hold above $579 at the open.
Short Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Scalping is high-risk, and you should trade according to your risk tolerance and strategy.
Today's setup of my chart on 5min 15min. Using "OrbFib+S&R" Breakdown of my action steps from open to close:
1) Wait 5min orb 15min ORB form to draw FIB.
2) Wait for (S) or (R) formed on 5min 15min to draw
3) Make plans using (S)&(R) and ORB fib levels
4) Use new (S) or (R) as risk entry, pair with OrbFib levels for confirmation.
5) mange position using (S) of the trend with OrbFib's levels (S)
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Common Fakeout: often can be solved using 15min candle confirmation.
Reason is 5min candles can trick IMPATIENT traders before 15min close.
To wait for 15min to close, Trader has to sit n watch 3 of 5min candles to close.
Impatient traders always rushing, trying to predict/guess the result of how the candle is going to close before it close... makes no senese in logic.
They focus too much on Prediction/Guessing, it makes them blind&bias, not listening to what candles says.
SPY 24Hr potterboxesThis is where we will open in the morning. its probly going to be a red day due to the law of threes, But we closed above cost basis in the outside box so we will see where this goes. I think if we open above $577.24 and hold that thru the morning we will probly make a another high but we have a little noise if we look to our left. For a all time high we need to break and hold above $584.65. just my mind meanderings for this stock.
Comprehensive Technical Analysis: SPX 10-Minute ChartThis SPX 10-minute chart shows a clear intraday shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, accompanied by multiple technical signals. Let’s break down the analysis across different technical components:
1. Trend Analysis:
Initial Downtrend: The session started with bearish momentum as indicated by Put Signals and declining price action. The lower lows created a brief bearish trend that ended with a strong reversal.
Bullish Reversal: The reversal is confirmed by a series of Call Signals after a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone. The price broke above a significant resistance level around 5,731.94, leading to a steady uptrend.
2. Moving Averages:
Short-Term Moving Average (Orange Line):
This acts as immediate support during the bullish run. The price consistently stays above this line, indicating short-term bullish strength.
The slope of the moving average is steep, reflecting increasing bullish momentum.
Mid-Term Moving Average (Blue Line):
Positioned further below, the blue moving average provides a broader support level. This indicates that the medium-term trend remains supportive of the upward move, showing a well-established bullish context.
3. Heikin Ashi Candles:
Bullish Momentum: The Heikin Ashi candles display a strong bullish pattern with several consecutive yellow candles and minimal lower wicks, indicating reduced volatility on the downside.
Temporary Pullback: A few red candles appear, marking brief consolidation but not a trend reversal. The continuation of yellow candles afterward confirms sustained bullish pressure.
4. Key Signals and Levels:
Entry Long: A long entry signal is observed after the breakout around 5,731.94, which was an excellent point for entering the bullish trade.
Exit Long: The Exit Long signal near 5,776.76 suggests taking profits after the bullish move. This level now serves as short-term resistance.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: 5,755.43 – A pullback to this level would still align with the bullish structure as long as it holds.
Major Support: 5,731.94 – This level marks the breakout point, acting as a strong floor for further bullish moves.
5. Volume and Momentum:
Although volume is not displayed, typically such strong moves (as indicated by Heikin Ashi and moving averages) are accompanied by rising volume.
Momentum: Bullish momentum remains high, supported by consistent upward price movement and the sustained hold above the moving averages.
6. Resistance and Future Outlook:
Immediate Resistance: The price is facing resistance at 5,776.76. A break above this could open the path to higher levels, potentially testing psychological levels like 5,800.
Continuation or Pullback: If the price breaks above 5,776, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. However, a failure at this resistance might lead to a short-term pullback to 5,755 or even 5,731.
Conclusion:
The chart reflects a strong bullish reversal with clear signals of upward momentum. Traders should watch the 5,776 level for a breakout confirmation or potential pullback to the key support levels at 5,755 and 5,731. Maintaining the trend above the orange and blue moving averages will be crucial for sustained bullish movement.
SPY: Watch Out For These Turning Points (D&W Charts).Daily Chart (Left)
Resistance and Support Levels : Both $574 and $565 have served as support and resistance points in the past, and are good examples of how the Principle of Polarity works in technical analysis - when broken, support points become resistance points, and vice versa. At the moment, SPY is struggling near $574, its current resistance, which is very close to the 21-day EMA. If it fails to break it, $565 is its next stop.
EMA and Price Action : The price has recently tested the 21-day EMA, and while it experienced a brief dip below this moving average, it has recovered. The EMA could act as immediate resistance if there is continued upward pressure. In addtion, the 21-day EMA is pointing down, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.
Short-Term Pattern : The presence of lower highs/lows indicates weakening momentum, so keeping an eye on whether the price can break above $574.71 or fall below $565.16 is crucial.
Weekly Chart (Right)
Uptrend Line : The long-term uptrend is intact with a supporting trend line dating back to late 2023. This trend line, coupled with the current support level at $565.16, will be pivotal for sustaining the broader uptrend.
EMA Support : The weekly EMA is also below the current price, suggesting a positive long-term trend. Any pullback to this level would still be within an acceptable correction phase.
Conclusion:
SPY is currently at a decisive point. If it manages to break above the $574.71 resistance, the uptrend could gain strength . Conversely, a failure to hold above $565.16 might trigger a pullback to the weekly trend line or EMA, materializing a long-term pullback (but not reversing the long-trend seen on the weekly chart, just triggering a sharper correction). This is a crucial watch zone for both bulls and bears to define short- to medium-term strategies.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Spy Double BottomPattern: Double Bottom
Spy is currently developing a double bottom pattern. Demand zone of 568-567 has giving support for buyers. In order for this pattern to have successful upside momentum we need to see a nice push through 575.50 with a nice hold with consolidation. Also be if we do get that break be cautious 576.91 supply zone created 10-31-24
Thanks Trading View Admin @NicoMuselle for the recognition on my previous TA on AAPL.
SPY Bull/Bear Options Trade After ElectionsAMEX:SPY
SPY Options
Range: $571-$568
Long-term tend suport down the middle.
We are sitting and waiting until elections are over. Here are our weekly options:
$572 Call 2-3 Week expiration
Entry: Confirmation over $572 (15-30 minutes close OVER)
Targets:$575, $580
$570 Puts 2-3 Week Expiration
Confirmation Under $572 (15-30 minutes close UNDER)
$572, $568, $563
SPY with Fib levels.**Three major drops in 2024 were roughly 5.9%, 9.7%, and 4.3%. The current drop is 3.1% so far.
** Price should’t go below $537—if it does, that would be a lower low, signaling a trend change.
** I drew Fibonacci retracement from $537 to the recent high of $586. We’ve already seen a 38% retracement at $567, with the next levels at 50% ($562) and 61% ($556).
** Price may fund support at either of these three levels - 38%, 60%, or 61% retracement.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-5 : Election DayThis video highlights what I believe is likely to happen today and into tonight (when the real news will hit). Additionally, I continue to warn that a price anomaly is very likely starting sometime after November 10.
Ultimately, the markets will struggle throughout the rest of the week, likely becoming a bit more volatile after the election.
I do believe the markets will move into the price anomaly event near November 10th and that event will likely transition into a big opportunity for traders sometime after November 15-18.
My ADL predictive modeling system is showing this anomaly event is highly likely in certain sectors.
Overall, I suggest traders continue to trade small allocation levels today as we get past "election day". The bigger opportunities come over the next 3 to 6+ months.
Today is not the day to be a hero. Today is the day to sit back, maybe target a few decent trades, and wait for the dust to settle.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Morning Overview: Election EditionGood morning everybody. No matter who you are voting for, it is important to put your beliefs aside when trading in the markets. Each candidate has an outcome on the market if they win and while that is more macro trading we still need understand how that effects our technical.
$SPY November 5, 2024AMEX:SPY November 5, 2024
15 Minutes.
For the extension from 539 to 575 to 565 AMEX:SPY made 61.8% of the move at 586 levels.
For the fall 583.32 to 568.44 it retraced 50% to 575.5 levels.
Now we have a sideways in box range between 575 to 567.
Bias id down as AMEX:SPY below all moving averages.
The positive side we have is for the lows 568.44 and 567.86 in 15 minutes we have oscillator divergence.
Therefore, if I take the rise 539.95 to 586.12, I expect first target to be 563 being 50% of retracement for the move.
Bias is towards short side.
Technical Analysis for SPY (1-Hour Chart) for Nov. 6, 2024Price Action Overview
SPY has been in a descending channel, reflecting a recent downtrend. The chart shows lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish sentiment, with price bouncing between the parallel channel lines. SPY is currently trading near the $568-$569 level, a minor support area where it might find temporary stability. Volume has been gradually decreasing, suggesting that sellers could be weakening, which might pave the way for a potential rebound or consolidation phase tomorrow.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels:
$575.55: Immediate resistance, near the upper trend line of the descending channel. A break above could indicate a bullish reversal.
$583.29: Higher resistance, where stronger selling pressure could emerge.
Support Levels:
$568.35: Current support. If SPY holds here, it may present a buying opportunity for scalpers looking to trade a bounce.
$563.66: Major support at the channel's lower boundary. A break below this could trigger further selling pressure.
Entry & Exit Points
Long Entry: If SPY holds above $568 and shows signs of bullish momentum, consider an entry near $569-$570. Look for quick exits around the resistance of $575 for a scalp.
Short Entry: If SPY fails to break above $575 and reverses, a short position around $573 with a target at $568 could be profitable. A break below $568 may signal further downside, targeting $563.
Directional Bias
Given the downtrend, the initial bias remains bearish, especially if SPY continues to respect the descending channel. However, if buyers gain control at $568, SPY could see a brief intraday rally towards $575. Traders should watch for price behavior at key levels to determine the direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively.
$SPY #IslandBoy #ComingSoon like $PLTR $TSLA $VFCCrystal ball telling me AMEX:SPY is gonna leave put buyer's stuck on an island in the coming weeks/months.
Higher Lows + Higher Highs = Uptrend intact
I always mention "Shakeout B4 Breakouts"
AMEX:SPY wedge + Election = WallofWorry/Fear (Buy when...?)
Tomorrow could be filled with more "fear" perhaps a vol spike, but I expect/hope for AMEX:SPY to hold this gap down range then Gap up Thorsday and put up a strong gap + hammer candle...
- Prophecies
PS; If looking for recent #Island examples check tickers in title. All recently putting up "Island Reversals" after earnings...
Election = Spy "Earnings"
SPY LONGwas expecting more weakness today then we got looks like we got a double bottom right around $567.80. going to try to enter close as i can to there with longs into the end of the week for FOMC rate cuts $580 calls will do perfect. Plan to trim a 3/4 as the event happens and let the other 1/4 ride for the next day
Daily Chart, H&S leading to future upward trend.On my ever-so sophisticated daily chart (draft w/crayons) Im looking at a potential H&S completion this week before finding support in the 560-555 range. After, opportunity exists for a Santa Rally and continued positive momentum through January toward next resistance levels.
Bear Camp - I think we're on an IslandI think we're on an Island. I anticipate we fill the upper gap, and then gap down from there or shortly after.
I'm going to start positioning at the gap levels far out and leg in upon trend confirmation.
Best of luck.
SPY 24hr Potterboxes,watch the candles and it will probly trade in range until a breakout to the downside. $5.84 to the top of the big box but the market always goes up just not horizontal. also the law of the threes. Tomorrow should be green.
