spdr- wtih commentaryMy thought process.
happy trading.
seeing if spy wants to push down or up in this new range its trying to set.
SPY trade ideas
Bullish Momentum Ahead: SPY's Path for Next WeekRecent Performance: SPY has experienced a strong bullish trend, trading above
major moving averages and recently hitting all-time highs. This reflects
buoyant market sentiment supported by robust performances in the S&P 500 and
NASDAQ, signaling a rally that is capturing investors’ attention.
- Key Insights: Traders should focus on critical support and resistance levels.
The lower support at $606 offers a buffer for potential pullbacks, while
resistance around $609 is pivotal for driving further gains. Monitoring
these dynamic levels could provide actionable insights for upcoming trades.
- Expert Analysis: Market experts generally maintain a bullish stance for SPY,
with potential for upward momentum. However, caution is advised as SPY
approaches key resistance levels, which could trigger a reversal or
continuation depending on market conditions. The volatility anticipated next
week, particularly affecting tech stocks, highlights the need for vigilance.
- Price Targets: Based on professional traders' insights, expected targets for
next week include:
- T1: $611
- T2: $614
- Stop Levels:
- S1: $606
- S2: $604
- News Impact: The market is closely following the potential for SPY to form a
multi-year ascending channel, with upcoming inflation and interest rate
dynamics likely to have a considerable effect. Analysts emphasize that these
factors could create turbulence in market performance, thereby impacting
investor sentiment and SPY's price trajectory in the days ahead.
$SPY December9, 2024AMEX:SPY December9, 2024
15 Minutes.
As can be seen in chart AMEX:SPY struggling around 608 609 levels.
The retracement i was expecting due to oscillator did not happen but it resulted in sideways movement.
For the rise 597.28 to 609.07 604.5 is approximately 38.2% retracement.
Also for the fall 609.07 to 607.07 to 608.38 605 is 1.618 times extension on reversals.
At the moment AMEX:SPY is converged in 3 moving averages 9,21,50.
We have 100 averages sat 606 levels.
That is my first target for the moment.
Day is still strong, and I have 635-640 as target.
We have 606 as 9 averages in day so that should give good support on a reversal.
SPY, ES1!, NVDA, IONQ and BTC Week of Dec 8th Pretty brief overview of expectations for the tickers mentioned in the title.
Nothing really interesting going on except some things popping up on screeners as potentially pretty good plays this week.
Hopefully you find it helpful and safe trades everyone!
SPY Covered Call To-DateI originally entered an SPY Covered Call to experience chasing an ITM call higher in SPY.
Originally buying SPY at $521.59 and selling 500 call was for max protection against any near term drops.
The original Max gain of $2.85/share translated into 0.18% gain per week against the $497.15 cash capital required to take the trade.
Currently, with two dividends distributed, the trade is surprisingly still a 0.17% per week max gain trade, which translates to 8.86% per year.
SPY would fall almost 12% by 2/28/25 and I still make max gain of .17% per week.
And a 17% fall in SPY would be required to wipe out all gains for this trade.
Hey Spy Lovers check this Candlestick Scenarios for future move I suspect it’s time for a good pullback. As we can see, the price continues to fluctuate within the ascending channel, but there are two scenarios I anticipate where a pullback might occur in the coming days.
Note: Every pullback is simply a very natural price movement. This does not mean that we are in a bearish market at the moment. If the overall structure is bullish, pullbacks are just part of the cyclical nature of price movement. Here are two potential scenarios in case the price decides to make this natural pullback:
Scenario 1:
If you compare the two types of candles I marked on the left, notice how the candle patterns have more volumetric, medium-sized bodies than the other. This indicates strength; however, we are not exempt from a natural pullback, which, to complete a trending cycle, broke the structure itself to the upside.
Scenario 2:
Let’s assume the price becomes quite exhausted and begins the pullback I am anticipating. I have marked two zones of great importance where the price will most likely rebound:
First Pullback Zone (equivalent to a block order):
Notice how, coincidentally, this zone touches the support of my ascending channel. Coincidence?
Second Rest or Pause Zone:
This zone must be considered because if there is a structural break, the price may drop lower to this point.
Note: The overall structure remains bullish unless a lower structure or demand zone is broken, Until then, we can only consider pullbacks and impulses as part of the price cycle in its upward movement.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE!
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 607.88 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 596.88
Recommended Stop Loss - 614.33
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Stock Market Analysis | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFTStock Market Analysis | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOGL MSFT
Testing Candlestick Patterns on Real DataIn his fundamental book "Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts," Thomas Bulkowski tested dozens of candlestick patterns using S&P market data. His research revealed that many well-known patterns perform quite differently from what conventional wisdom suggests.
In this video, I’ll show you how to conduct a similar analysis using your own data to determine whether those fancy "Hammers" and "Shooting Stars" actually give you an edge in trading.
SPY: Short Trading Opportunity
SPY
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry - 607.88
Sl - 614.52
Tp - 596.72
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
2 Factors showing top near 615Factor 1 - Long term expansion trendline from 1995 to 2000.
Factor 2 - Measured move from 2021 to 2022.
Having two factors pointing to more or less the same level is a very intriguing prospect. It's definitely time to monitor the short term timeframes to try to find a local top here.
SPY Analysis 12/06/24Key Observations on the Price Action (SPY):
Trend and Price Context:
- SPY is trading near its all-time high of $607.88, with the post-market price at $607.84. While price action remains bullish overall, the grey MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is building, indicating potential weakness or divergence.
Support and Resistance:
- The white horizontal line at 600 remains a critical support level, representing prior resistance that could act as a buying zone if SPY pulls back.
- A breakout above $607.88 would signify renewed bullish strength and continuation to new highs.
Moving Averages:
- The 50-day MA (blue line) continues to slope upward, providing a general trend guide but not acting as dynamic support since price hasn’t recently interacted with it.
- The 200-day MA (magenta line) remains far below the current price, confirming long-term bullish momentum.
Indicator Observations:
MACD Histogram (Background):
- The grey histogram indicates bearish momentum, suggesting a potential divergence from the strong price trend. This could be an early warning of a pullback or consolidation.
RSI (Gray Line):
- RSI remains above 50, confirming overall bullish momentum but does not yet indicate overbought conditions.
ADX and DMI (White, Blue, Magenta Lines):
- ADX (32.75) reflects moderate trend strength. While the trend is intact, the ADX level suggests it is not overly dominant, leaving room for potential retracement.
- DI+ (Blue Line) is still above DI- (Magenta Line), indicating buyers remain in control for now, despite the bearish MACD signal.
Key Scenarios to Watch:
Bearish Divergence (MACD vs. Price):
- The grey MACD histogram reflects bearish momentum that diverges from the bullish price trend. This could signal slowing momentum or a potential short-term pullback.
Critical Support at $600:
- A pullback to the 600 level could confirm a healthy retracement within the broader uptrend. If this level fails, it could open the door for deeper corrections toward the 50-day MA or lower support zones.
Breakout Potential at $607.88:
- A strong breakout above the all-time high would likely negate the bearish MACD signal, especially if accompanied by increased volume and rising momentum indicators.
Conclusion:
- While SPY remains in a strong uptrend near its all-time high, the grey MACD histogram introduces caution, signaling that bearish momentum may be building despite bullish price action. A pullback to $600 is possible and could provide an opportunity for buyers to step in, as long as this support level holds.
Trading Implications:
For Bulls: Monitor price action at $607.88 for a breakout or wait for a pullback to $600 for potential re-entry. Keep an eye on the MACD histogram to see if bearish momentum persists or reverses.
For Bears: Use the bearish MACD signal as an early warning for a potential retracement. A breakdown below $600 could signal deeper downside potential.
SPY is at a pivotal moment. While the trend remains intact, the bearish MACD histogram demands caution and suggests the need to carefully watch support levels and momentum changes.
SPY Pullback in an Ascending Channel. Dec 6, 2024SPY continues to respect an ascending channel but is currently pulling back from the upper boundary. The price action suggests a potential for further retracement or a bounce from support levels. With increasing selling momentum, tomorrow's session will be key to determining whether SPY maintains its bullish structure or breaks down. Here’s a detailed analysis and playbook for scalpers and swing traders.
Market Structure Overview:
* Trend: SPY remains in a bullish uptrend, trading within a clean ascending channel. The pullback, however, suggests short-term weakness.
* Current Price Action:
* The price has dropped below $606.22 and is heading toward the midline of the channel.
* Selling volume is increasing, signaling bearish momentum in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance:
* $608.48: Immediate resistance at the recent high.
* $612: Upper channel boundary, acting as strong resistance.
* Support:
* $602.43: First level of support, aligned with previous consolidation.
* $597.32: Major horizontal support and the lower boundary of the channel.
* $594.15: Critical support level if the channel breaks down.
Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks:
* Liquidity Zones:
* Significant liquidity is below $602.43, with stops likely clustered near $600-$598.
* Order Blocks:
* Bullish OB: Between $597-$600, aligning with the lower channel boundary.
* Bearish OB: Near $608-$610, where selling pressure has emerged.
MACD & Volume Analysis:
* MACD: Shows bearish momentum as the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating potential for further downside.
* Volume: Selling volume is increasing, confirming the pullback, but watch for volume spikes near key support zones.
My Thoughts on Tomorrow’s Direction:
Tomorrow’s session will depend heavily on how SPY interacts with the $602-$597 support zone. Here’s what I expect:
1. Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY holds above $602 and we see buying volume during the pre-market or early trading session, expect a bounce back toward $606-$608. A break above $608 could lead to a retest of the $612 upper channel resistance.
* Catalysts such as positive economic data or strong tech sector performance could trigger this move.
2. Bearish Scenario:
* If SPY fails to hold $602 and breaks below $600, we could see accelerated selling toward $597 and potentially $594.
* Watch for increasing bearish volume and rejection near $602 on intraday tests to confirm a further move lower.
3. Key Indicator to Watch:
* Volume: Rising bullish volume near $602 would signal a potential reversal. Conversely, increasing bearish volume below $602 could confirm further downside.
Scalping Strategy:
* Entry:
* Long scalps at $602-$603 if the price shows signs of holding the support level.
* Short scalps at $606-$608 if price rejects resistance again.
* Exit:
* For longs, take profits near $605-$606.
* For shorts, target $600-$598.
* Stop-Loss:
* For longs: Below $600.
* For shorts: Above $608.50.
Swing Trading Strategy:
* Bullish Play:
* Wait for a bounce at $597-$600 support zone and enter long. Target $608, then $612 if momentum resumes.
* Bearish Play:
* If SPY fails to reclaim $606 convincingly, consider shorting with targets at $597 or lower.
* Stop-Loss:
* For longs: Below $597.
* For shorts: Above $608.
Game Plan for SPY Trading:
1. Pre-Market Prep:
* Monitor overnight futures to gauge sentiment.
* Mark $606 (resistance) and $597 (support) for intraday reactions.
2. Market Open Strategy:
* Observe the first 15-30 minutes to confirm direction.
* Look for rejection or bounce at key levels before entering trades.
3. Intraday Execution:
* Use the ascending channel to guide entries and exits.
* Keep a close eye on volume spikes for confirmation.
4. End of Day:
* Close intraday positions and reassess swing setups based on the closing structure.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
SPY is bullishSPY is moving in a really nice ascending channel, and if breakout occurs on any side, we can expect a big move today or coming week.
SPY, QQQ and a bit of BTC Hey guys,
I haven't been posting much this year and its mostly because I hate bull markets haha.
My resolution for new years is to be more engaged next year.
In this post I am just going over my thoughts and analysis for the short term on the week. My EOY outlook is pretty much a continuation to the upside. January will be the make or break month. We really should see selling starting then. But we can reassess it when January comes around.
Sorry for the rambling and hopefully you find this somewhat helpful.
Feel free to leave your questions below and as always, safe trades!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Harami-Inside DayToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay rather flat and likely close within yesterday's body range.
I'm not expecting a lot of price action today - although we could see a high/low range outside of yesterday's body range.
Gold and Silver are struggling to find support and rally from recent lows. The US Dollar's move back below 106 is positive for metals. But I urge traders to stay very cautious until they see a clear bullish breakaway pattern in metals.
I've been trying to tell everyone for 3+ weeks that the markets typically go a bit WONKY after a big election process. This year, Trump's victory was a big surprise for many, and I'm confident traders are attempting to avoid risks by staying away from making big moves before the end of the year.
Bitcoin fell back below $100k again and I believe BTCUSD could be setting up a very large Excess Phase Peak pattern. If I'm correct, we may see Bitcoin fall to GETTEX:82K (possibly $72k) as the EPP pattern continues.
It is very early in this EPP price structure, but ultimately, the EPP either continues to play out or invalidates. So, one way or another, we will either see a move down to GETTEX:82K (or below) or a rally move breaking above the $103k highs.
Again, I expect a very flat day for the SPY/QQQ. Stay safe.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SP500 at resistance full fib ext from 2022 bear market reached, a retracement from current levels has high probability with a possibility of a peak up until 6300 tagging the upper channel high
SPY Covered CallThis is a trade I've held for a while. I did this with a couple of WMT covered call trades I made and simply felt like sharing this trade.
I will do my best to update this as I roll from this point forward.
I will also try to share if I enter a second SPY ITM covered call.
No commission will be recorded, only trade prices.
$SPY $615 target.Look at the chart, unless a crisis happens, $615 AMEX:SPY should be an easy target within 40 days. Look to hit a mental percentage of 30% YTD, the target here is under that incase of a selloff. $620 would be the 30% YTD target. January 2025 $615c. Not financial advice.
Wallstreetloser
SpyTagging upper boundary here near 608-610...
Smaller time frame and you'll see the rising wedge here spy has been trading inside last week. The wedge narrowness is responsible for the chop melt up...
I'm expecting a break down either
tomorrow on Job numbers or Monday
Take in the overbought conditions and I spy should pullback to close gap at 598 minimum but keep in mind of 603 gap first.
Stop losses over 610
This melt up this early was weird. Usually Christmas rally happens 3rd or 4th week of Dec.
Bigger picture is this
We are in a wedge on spy but I'm starting to wonder do they drag price out inside this range for the rest of the year?
SPY Volume Print PRZWe got good hourly delta candle from previous day, this area was expected to be good potential reversal zone area. next day market pulled to the area and reversed from that potential reversal zone. That area held.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat-Down pattern may continue the rolling top pattern in my Crash Index - suggesting the markets are consolidating after the post-Election rally phase.
I continue to warn traders this low liquidity market phase will likely prompt some very big volatility in price action between the election and, roughly, January 5-10. Stay cautious.
I believe the markets are starting to revert a bit downward and I believe this is a very healthy move for the markets - especially after the post-election rally phase.
We need the markets to resolve back into a moderation phase before attempting to make another bigger move to the upside. So, watching the markets potential roll over and fall about 3~5% would not surprise me.
Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly strong rally phase. This could be coupled with a moderate US Dollar decline.
Bitcoin rallied above $103k over the past 24 hour - WOW. Buckle up - the Bitcoin crew will be out in force with their memes and other comments.
Remember, play these market moves safely. If you can afford to take the lumps, don't trade too much capital with each trade.
Going to be a very interesting holiday as I believe liquidity will continue to erode and present even more volatility.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY to 555Based on the history I am going to be looking out to see if spy makes its way back down to around the 555 area in the near future.
