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2024 SOY: Start Of the Year, Market OutlookIn this SOY, I will be discussing the market outlook to help retail investors plan for the year ahead. Please note that this is not financial advice, and I am not licensed to provide such advice. The insights shared here are my personal opinions based on statistics, technical analysis, macroeconomics, and seasonality statistics to manage maximum position sizing on a per-asset basis. You should always consult a licensed professional before making any and all financial decisions. The main tickers I will be focusing on are SPY, QQQ, MSTR (which is included in QQQ), and VIX. Macro Economics Overview Politics will be the single most deterministic factor for performance this year and over the next four years. Politics defines policy, policy defines macroeconomic conditions, and macros determine both the direction of a trend as well as the strength of that trend . Therefore, only inexperienced or uneducated traders ignore or object to the influence of politics when making financial decisions. Additionally, we must consider several legitimate concerns that could impact the market, including: - Environmental disasters - Pandemics - Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) - Federal Reserve interest rates - Sanctions and tariffs - Cyber warfare - The potential for conflict with China - SPY VS QQQ These factors must be discussed, evaluated, and modeled in order to properly assess the risks associated with individual portfolios. With this outline out of the way, let begin... Environmental Disasters The unpredictability of natural disasters, especially in a climate-altering world, can disrupt entire sectors, particularly agriculture, commodities, energy, and insurance markets. This is perhaps one of the most lucrative areas to make money, as 30+ years of systemic mispricing of risk has compounded due to the entire field of economics and finance treating climate science as an "externality." This logical error and mismanagement means that insurance companies are now scrambling to rework their pricing and risk models, pulling out of markets. There will undoubtedly be political pushback against companies as a direct result. Companies such as the following are most likely to be effected by this: AIG, ALL, PGR, PRU, MET, TRV, CB, BRK.A, BRK.B, LMRK, CI, UNM, FNF, AFG, AFL, MFC. On a more broad market, leveraged ETFs like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) and DRN (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares) can provide indirect exposure to sectors impacted by environmental disasters, particularly in the energy and insurance markets and Bear Call Spreads or Bull Put Spreads on these tickers may be more capital efficient way to hedge against risk compared to standard puts/calls. If you're looking to play this issue, these tickers and specific sectors may be worth doing your own research on and taking whatever appropriate step are relevant to you and only after speaking to a licensed professional. Pandemics The impact of pandemics on global markets can be both immediate and far-reaching. Historically, health crises like COVID-19 have caused significant disruptions across supply chains, labor markets, and consumer behavior, while exacerbating volatility in sectors such as travel, hospitality, and healthcare. Unfortunately the incoming American administration seems to not have learned their lesson that defunding pandemic response teams or the WHO is objectively a bad idea for everyone and has catastrophic economic and market impacts. The economic fallout from pandemics can lead to governments introducing lockdowns, stimulus measures (and inflation), and mass quarantines, all of which directly affect market sentiment and asset performance. While the immediate market response is often sharp and negative, opportunities exist for those who are able to identify long-term shifts in consumer behavior and industry transformation. For those looking to profit from potential market dislocations, ETFs like XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund) may provide exposure to sectors that experience heightened volatility during pandemics. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) The CMBS market has shown vulnerability in recent years, particularly in the wake of rising delinquency rates on office and retail spaces. This risk may also be compounded by underwater bonds such as the one's held by silicon valley bank and the recent increases in the 10 yr. Banks holding large portfolios of CMBS have been reluctant to acknowledge the true value of these assets, waiting for them to transition from Hold-to-Maturity (HTM) status to Other Than Temporarily Impaired (OTTI) status, at which point they will be forced to mark these assets to market, likely at a steep loss. This has the potential to destabilize the financials of banks heavily invested in commercial real estate, particularly those holding assets tied to struggling sectors such as office buildings and retail malls. Leveraged ETFs like DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares) and SRS (ProShares UltraShort Real Estate) can be used to gain short exposure to the real estate sector, which is vulnerable to the risk of widespread CMBS impairments. Federal Reserve Interest Rates The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies remain a primary influence on market behavior. A rising interest rate environment typically pressures asset prices, particularly in sectors reliant on cheap credit, such as technology, real estate, and consumer discretionary stocks. Conversely, lower interest rates can fuel asset inflation, driving up equity and bond prices. As interest rates increase, companies with high debt levels or those in capital-intensive industries are more likely to face pressure on their earnings and stock prices. Leveraged ETFs like XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XHB (SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF) are often impacted by rate hikes, which raise borrowing costs. On the other hand, TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) tends to be more sensitive to lower interest rates. Sanctions and Tariffs Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving sanctions and tariffs, can have an immediate and profound impact on market dynamics. When countries impose tariffs or sanctions, it can disrupt global supply chains, raise production costs, and lead to higher inflation. Sectors such as industrials, energy, and manufacturing tend to be the most sensitive to trade policies, with tariffs acting as a hidden tax on businesses that depend on cross-border trade. To hedge against such risks, leveraged ETFs like XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund) and XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) may be relevant, depending on how tariffs are applied. Shorting specific ETFs through Put Spreads or Bear Call Spreads can also be used to mitigate exposure to sectors most affected by escalating trade barriers or sanctions. Cyber Warfare The rise of cyber warfare represents a significant risk to businesses and economies globally. As attacks on critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and large corporations increase, markets may react with volatility, especially in tech-heavy sectors or industries that are heavily reliant on digital systems. The increasing prevalence of ransomware, data breaches, and other malicious attacks can lead to costly disruptions, decreased consumer trust, and regulatory fines. Companies in sectors such as technology, defense, and financial services are at the highest risk of cyber-attacks. Leveraged ETFs like HACK (ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF) can provide targeted exposure to companies focused on cybersecurity. Additionally, options strategies such as Protective Puts and Straddle Spreads can be useful for managing risk in the event of a significant cyberattack impacting the market or a specific company. The Potential for Conflict with China The growing tensions between the U.S. and China present a major risk to global markets, particularly in sectors reliant on international trade. If conflict were to escalate, either economically or militarily, there could be profound consequences on global supply chains, trade agreements, and investor confidence. A leveraged ETF like YINN (Direxion Daily China Bull 3X Shares) can provide exposure to Chinese equities, while YANG (Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares) provides inverse exposure to China’s stock market. When Russia decided to engage in a costly conflict, which to date has sacrificed more russian lives than the total death of both nukes on Japan, leveraged ETFs like RUSL (Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares) became a particularly effective tool for profiting from volatility associated with geopolitical instability, though the delist made it difficult to fully capture such profits. MSTR’s Impact on SPY vs QQQ Performance Differentials The inclusion of MSTR (MicroStrategy) in QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) is a key factor that could cause significant performance differentials between SPY and QQQ . MSTR's heavy exposure to Bitcoin ties its performance directly to the volatile crypto market. A future crypto winter—a prolonged bear market in crypto—could cause MSTR to underperform, negatively affecting QQQ due to its weighting in the ETF. If this happens, QQQ may undergo rebalancing, potentially removing or reducing MSTR's weight to mitigate the impact. This would create a divergence between QQQ and SPY , as SPY is unaffected by crypto’s volatility and remains more stable with its broader sector exposure. Thank for reading this year's SOY! I hope you enjoyed this and I wish you all the best luck navigating the market. Don't forget to hit the boost, follow and consider gifting a subscription if this helped you in anyway.
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
SPY H&S is breaking. The market may have just flipped!H&S Broke it's neckline and the overall $580 Support. We are seeing this break of support across the NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM as well. This is all leading me to believe strongly that we are now in a crash or correction in these markets. I personally sold out of all my TRADES and am HOLDING and DCAing in all my INVESTMENTS. The difference here is my Trades where to the upside and with the markets telling us where we are most likely heading now I am not staying in trades to find out if it will be for 5% or more to the downside from here as this would lead to all long trades getting pulled to the depths of hell. There are no certainties, and before, based on what I was seeing, I said I believed we would bounce and hold this area (Which could still be the case), but all reasoning behind that has been ruptured, and I have nothing left to believe in that besides small criteria. To be a good or profitable trader, you need to be not stubborn, follow a set trading strategy, and be reactive to the markets and what they are telling us—not go against the overall trend! All we have are charts and indicators to help us make our best assumptions of what will happen. More criteria pointing in one direction is the way you have to assume we will go...well we went from pointing up and for an imminent bounce to most criteria pointing down for what will either be one of the biggest fake outs ever's or a correction/ crash in the markets after a massive 2 year bull run. Only time will tell at this point, but I wanted to make this post to inform everyone here about what I personally did and what I'm seeing. I DID TALK ABOUT A CORRECTION/ CRASH THIS YEAR IN THE MARKETS IN MY 2025 PREVIEW BUT SAID SECOND HALF AND THAT WAS MY BEST GUESS... As always this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE and NEVER WILL BE! Everyone needs to play their own book and make their own ADULT decisions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RonnieV29
17
Spy Road To $615! Still Strong?Be very cautious ⚠️ If you are considering releasing your positions due to a stock market crash/ Recession!!! You are correct, but just releasing and selling everything is not how the market works!!!! IN MY OPION AND THESES AND STUDY AND HYPOTHESIS WITH THE INFORMATION I HAVE!! The Most likely scenario you would see (to catch 90%) investors) and trap them ,if this was a start to a Recession or bear market!!! Would be to sharply increase price upwards fast and for a short duration (A.K.A Blow Off Top) allowing for People to fomo bk in to all there stocks etf's ect and then to truly drop the bag on investors Creating a huge bull trap, so in my opinion i would not sell and i would ADD And be sure to take advantage of my 1 month free gift on patron link below limited number of gifts As always Goodluck traders and safe trades!!! As always JoeWtrades
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
75
SPY Hourly Insight 01/08Today SPY did manage to fall below that 586 level that I mentioned yesterday, and filled that gap below. Buyers quickly stepped in and defended that level again. I'm bullish only if we continue to defend that range. Today was definitely a scalpers paradise, on the hour we ranged and chopped all day. Tomorrow markets are closed in remembrance of President Jimmy Carter. We are double inside on the hour for all my straters out there, which could give us a push to those higher levels if we break out of that consolidation. These are the levels for Friday that I will be watching.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IgniteWealthBuilders
3 Things That Made Me a Better TraderIts as simple as following a trend. In my opinion, there are 2 types of traders, trend traders and range traders. I prefer to fade range trading because it is very easy to get chopped up. The first step to being a trend trader is to first Identify a trend. I do this by using the Keltner channel. It lets me know two things: Market has pushed with enough emphasis that the move could have continuation. The Keltner channel objectively identifies the trend for me. This way I do not have to rely on my own discretion. Secondly, I patiently wait for a pullback Lastly, I look for an entry on a "breakout bar" or an inside bar and I place a stop order entry just above this. Its as simple as that. There is no more magic to this formula. There are many other ways to enter a trade on the pullback. For instance you could place a limit order at the previous bars EMA value (EMA with an offset of 1). I have linked a my complete editor's pick Keltner channel strategy to this article. If you want even more in depth detail on this strategy check out my website in my profile. Good Luck and Good Trading!
AMEX:SPY
by JoeRodTrades
SPY Technical Analysis & GEX InsightsTrend Analysis: SPY appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential breakout in either direction. The price is consolidating within narrowing support and resistance levels, indicating reduced volatility and a possible large move ahead. Support and Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $591 (Key resistance zone based on GEX data). * Next Resistance: $595 (Major GEX wall and prior price rejection area). * Immediate Support: $586 (GEX levels show strong PUT support here). * Critical Support: $580.50 (Major PUT Wall and previous price support). Volume Analysis: Volume has been steadily decreasing, in line with the consolidation phase. A breakout with increased volume will confirm the directional bias. MACD Momentum: The MACD is hovering around the zero line, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. However, it may cross soon, providing an early signal for the next move. GEX Insights: 1. Gamma Resistance: $591 and $595 are major resistance levels where CALL walls dominate. 2. Gamma Support: $586 and $580 are key PUT walls providing strong downside protection. 3. Implied Volatility (IV): SPY’s IV is relatively low, suggesting calm market conditions but also positioning for a breakout. Trade Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Above $591 with strong volume. * Target: $595 (first target) and $599 (next target). * Stop-Loss: Below $588. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Below $586 with strong volume. * Target: $580 (first target) and $577 (next target). * Stop-Loss: Above $589. ---------------- Scalping Scenarios: Bullish Play: Setup: If SPY breaks above 593.71 with high volume and candle confirmation. Entry: Near 593.80 after retest. Target: Scale out at 595.50–596.15. Stop-Loss: Below 593.20. Bearish Play: Setup: If SPY breaks below 585.20 with sustained bearish momentum. Entry: Near 584.90 after a weak pullback. Target: Scale out at 583.50, and extend to 582.00 if momentum holds. Stop-Loss: Above 586.00. Momentum Confirmation: Monitor volume closely; scalping opportunities are stronger with rising volume near breakout levels. Watch for MACD or Stochastic RSI alignment to confirm momentum. Caution: Premarket Volatility: Reassess levels if the premarket introduces a strong gap or unusual activity. Tight Stops: Maintain disciplined stop-losses to protect against rapid moves. Directional Bias: The symmetrical triangle hints at neutrality, with the price poised for a breakout. Watch for a decisive move above $591 or below $586 to confirm the next trend. --------------------- Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY[W] - 2025, and behindWith ISM on record highs and Trump in the office, FED won't likely cut rates on its meeting in January and might signal the possibility on increased rates if inflation raises again. That might send crypto markets into correction, and we might see market participants withdrawing from the equity to treasure or governmental bonds. Gold will continue to soar towards 3,000 threshold during the year. In March, core inflation might finally show up on CPI a data-driven FED might decide to increase rates. If this scenario happen, it might send the markets into a deeper correction as marked on the chart. Owners of real estate properties might see additional returns on investment in 2025. Geopolitical tension might be increasing through the year, and might finally cultivate in 2027-2029.
AMEX:SPY
by KenzoYagai
Pre-Market Update: SPY - 01092025 - $586-$586.50 Support RetestWatching the SPY going into Premarket, it lost support at the $588.62 Levels, so we're looking for that $586-586.50 to gauge if the Markets will lose steam and pullback even more (providing better buying opportunities on our other Trade Analysis). The question is always, "How far are really pulling back though?" Today's Economic Calendar: Event Type Date Time Description Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Industrial Production Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Merchandise Trade Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Industrial Production Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 01:00 AM Merchandise Trade Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 04:00 AM Retail Sales Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 04:00 AM Retail Sales Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM ECB Minutes Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 06:30 AM ECB Minutes Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 07:30 AM Jobless Claims Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 07:30 AM Jobless Claims Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 09:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 09:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 3-Month Bill Announcement Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:00 AM 6-Month Bill Announcement Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 10:30 AM 4-Week Bill Auction Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 03:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 03:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 05:30 PM Household Spending Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 05:30 PM Household Spending Econoday event Jan 09, 2025 11:00 PM Equity Settlements Stay tuned by connecting with us below to discover more at @MyMI Wallet!
AMEX:SPYLong
by MyMIWallet
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-9-25 : Behind The Scenes ResearchMany of you are following my research and Plan Your Trade videos - watching my SPY Cycle Patterns play out as the markets trade through various phases/trends. What you do not see is the extended research and predictive modeling that go into my deeper research, which aims to help traders. The SPY Cycle Patterns are just one part of my extensive coded solutions related to cycles/trends/phases and other market conditions. Every week, I review and research dozens of market conditions, attempting to determine the current phase, setup, and conditions related to the market and what to expect in the near future. That is why, in many cases, I will be ahead of the trends by 2 to 5+ weeks. You may wonder why I'm able to draw future expected price action often so accurately. This is because of my extended market research (done behind the scenes). My work is not only about the SPY Cycle Patterns - it includes many other more detailed market analyses related to key fundamentals and cycle/phase market trends/setups. In this video, I try to share some of the extended work I do to help traders so you can better understand how all of my research/work ties together to deliver the best information I can. In my opinion, trading is about what is likely to happen now, and attempting to identify what is likely to happen in the near future - so we can prepare and trade efficiently through any market trend. As we take a day off to remember President Carter, I thought you might be interested to see what I actually do every day/week in terms of research and software development trying to help you learn to become a better trader. Stay safe & get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
9
Double Bottom Today on SPY using the 4hr Key Observations: On the 4hr Timeframe we seen Equal lows today The SPY price action exhibits a double bottom formation, which is a bullish reversal pattern indicating potential upward movement. The chart highlights Fair Value Gaps (FVG) for potential entries: Bullish FVG: Suggests entering long positions upon retest near the zone of $589.38 (green box). Bearish FVG: Suggests entering short positions upon retest near $588.48 (red box). Key support and resistance levels are marked: Previous Day Low: $580.89. Previous Day High: $591.11. Highs and Lows (HL) are noted as part of the structure to track the trend. Volume and Indicators: A histogram at the bottom of the chart reflects increasing momentum, showing a transition between bullish (green) and bearish (red) trends. The chart’s reliance on mitigation statistics (e.g., "Bullish 76.7% mitigated, Bearish 99.66% mitigated") suggests a focus on price efficiency and liquidity grabs. Market Sentiment: The presence of a double bottom near the Previous Day Low supports the bullish case. Bearish FVG implies caution in case of failure to hold above key support zones. Next Steps: To ensure I factor in relevant market dynamics for an accurate New York Open projection, I’ll examine recent data (including SPY trends over the past year) and match it with this chart’s technical analysis. I will recheck current pre-market conditions and gather additional insights specific to SPY. Let me do so now. Analyzing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) over the past year reveals significant growth, with the ETF reaching an all-time high closing price of $607.81 on December 6, 2024. YAHOO FINANCE The 52-week range for SPY is as follows: 52-Week High: $609.07 52-Week Low: $469.87 This indicates a substantial increase from the 52-week low to the high, reflecting strong market performance during this period. YAHOO FINANCE In 2024, SPY achieved an annual total return of 24.89%, following a return of 26.19% in 2023. YAHOO FINANCE As of January 8, 2025, SPY closed at $589.49, showing a modest increase of 0.15% from the previous day. YAHOO FINANCE Several factors have contributed to SPY's performance over the past year: Technology Sector Growth: Major technology companies have significantly influenced SPY's performance, with the top holdings in SPY being Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Amazon.com Inc. MARKETWATCH Economic Indicators: Positive economic data, including GDP growth and employment figures, have bolstered investor confidence, contributing to market gains. Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates, have impacted market liquidity and investor sentiment. As of now, pre-market data for SPY is not available. NASDAQ However, futures markets can provide some indication of market sentiment. Dow Jones futures, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, dipped slightly overnight, suggesting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the New York open. INVESTOPEDIA SPY has exhibited strong performance over the past year, reaching new highs and delivering substantial returns. While pre-market data is currently unavailable, futures markets suggest a cautious sentiment ahead of the New York open. Investors should monitor economic indicators, corporate earnings reports, and geopolitical developments, as these factors will continue to influence SPY's performance in the near term. Key Levels to Watch in the S&P 500 for 2025
AMEX:SPYLong
by CapitalGainz33