SPY short targets for this weekI expect this area to offer at least a bounce. There may be something like that on Thursday.
This is based on my dowsing work. I also left my prior idea, which was done at the beginning of the month to see how things shake out with projecting week by week with my work.
Obviously, the standout dates were very relevant. I don't get that there are any new dates to add.
Intuitively, I will say I heard the word, "floor". So where we land may be support for a bit?
We'll see. I'm still very new at intuitively hearing/receiving messages & things.
SPY trade ideas
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 21 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 21, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
SPY -Europe closed. Jap deal failure. Big move todayEurope market being closed major traders from europe will be absent. This will allow big move in the USA market today. Also Japanese deal failure will sink the market
Market has again somewhat formed a Head-Shoulder pattern. Target for the week 498
$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously.
🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot.
🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 21:
No major economic data releases scheduled.
📅 Tuesday, April 22:
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.20 million
Previous: 4.38 million
Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 23:
📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0
Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.
📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.
📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET):
Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: 1.3%
Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 230,000
Previous: 223,000
Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.
📅 Friday, April 25:
📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 76.5
Previous: 77.2
Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Trading Idea: Range Breakout StrategyBias: Neutral-to-Bullish (for breakout)
Setup:
SPY is consolidating between $520–534. A clean break above this zone could signal continuation toward the pivot level at 562.75.
Entry Options:
Aggressive Long:
Buy near current levels (~526), stop-loss below $520, target $534 short-term and $550–562 swing target.
Conservative Long (Breakout):
Buy above $534, on confirmed breakout with volume. Stop-loss just below $528. Target: $548–562.
Bearish Scenario (if breakdown):
If price falls below $520 with strong red volume, potential retest of $511 support and further down toward $500 or $480 (S2).
Short entry below $520, stop-loss at $526, target $511 then $500.
Volume Insight:
Strong green bar at bounce near $480 indicates buyer interest.
Current candles show indecision; breakout or breakdown will likely be volume-driven.
disclaimer: The trade idea presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 526.40
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 554.18
My Stop Loss - 512.11
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY forming an ugly diamond bottom: Big move soonDecided to just ignore all the noise and go back to the basics for this one.
We got a classic ugly diamond bottom, a ton of volatility after a large price move followed by reduced volatility, some symmetry but there are bits that pop out of the pattern on both sides.
Diamonds don't have to look perfect for them to be legit, this one is certainly no beauty and I was hesitating to call it one, but I think it is close enough.
Measured moved for each side is 570 (up to the liberation day announcement) if there is a positive breakout, and 470 down to the next level of support if there is a negative breakout.
Volume is declining from when we entered the diamond shape, which typically points to a bullish breakout. If we get positive tariff news this could definitely happen.
Ultimately watch for a break of 520 for a bearish move and a break of 536 for a bullish move.
Double bottom on SPY would be nice.I'm thinking that if SPY does a double bottom around 4800, it could be a good time to buy. I don't think SPY will drop below 4800 because Trump seems to be working on positive news with Ukraine/Russia, the Iran deal, Japan, and so on. If we hit 4800 again, it would probably mean the Fed isn't cutting rates, Powell gets fired, or some big tech companies miss their earnings. But Trump will probably try his hardest to lift the markets from here, and 5000 could be a higher low.
$SpyI think we head to 510 next week and most likely lower...
Here's vix
2hour chart (Log)
Pennant here showing. My price target next week is 45. Fire works over 35
AMEX:SPY daily RSI
Rolling over here at resistance
Spy daily chart
Pennant resistance trendline at 21ema is at the same spot 540 ish.. if price can close over that before a break below 520 then this correction has taking a break and we will likely head to 547 and over that 565
Ixic (Nasdaq)
Same analysis as Spy
I'll update this more over the weekend but I just wanted to get this out there before the close.... Any longs are risky below the 21/20 moving averages
Are US Tariffs Similar To The COVID-19 Global DisruptionThis video is in response to a question asked by one of my followers on TradingView.
He specifically asked if the current US Tariffs create a similar situation to the COVID-19 supply disruptions and how it may result in longer-term market disruptions.
In this video, I try to answer these questions and highlight the differences I see related to what is happening now vs. the COVID-19 shutdown.
It is an interesting question.
I certainly see similarities, but I also see vast differences in terms of how the global markets are attempting to address the US tariff issues.
First, the current tariff issues are somewhat self-inflicted, not something like COVID-19 (unavoidable).
Second, the global central banks acted in concert to present immense liquidity to support a global shutdown with COVID. I don't see that happening right now.
Supply-side disruptions are evident, but we'll see how they play out over the next 60- 90+ days.
Longer-term, I hope these tariff issues are resolved before the global economy moves into a deeper recession. I will state that hard assets are likely to take a hit over the next 60-90+ days across the globe.
Any moderate (think 15 to 35%) slowdown in production, shipping, and consumption across the globe is going to be felt all over the planet. It is not going to be isolated to just one or two areas.
This is the smackdown that I don't believe anyone is really ready for. And that creates the urgency to resolve the tariff issues asap.
Hope this helps.
Get Some.
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SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 17 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today April 17 2025 and will not be valid for next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
Bulls held the line!boost and follow for more 🔥
In my last SPY analysis I pointed out the potential short trap below major support, I added back all shares and some shortly after I noticed this when spy was around 490.
I think as long as 523 holds then a push higher to 550-570 can happen in the next few weeks.🎯
first and last chart from me today, I hope you all have a great weekend 🤝
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video For 4-17 : Another BLANK dayToday's BLANK pattern in counter-trend mode is nothing to worry about.
As I research and document these patterns, there are patterns that appear frequently on the Daily price chart and there are others that appear more infrequently.
If I have not already marked these patterns and documented them, they have not appeared anywhere in the 11+ years of the Daily price data I use within the Lookup Engine.
Therefore, these are VERY RARE types of patterns - Extremely infrequent.
I will add that the secondary looking criteria show yesterday and today could be similar to "key top/bottom" types of price rotation. So, I do believe the current price level on the SPY (520-535) could prove to be very critical support/resistance going forward.
Tomorrow is Good Friday (no trading). So if you are going to take any trades today, make sure you remember to plan your exits for TODAY or NEXT WEEK (or later). You will not be able to exit stock/ETF trades tomorrow (sorry).
Gold is moving into a Momentum Rally, and I really want to see how that pattern plays out before the long holiday weekend.
Fingers crossed we see a BIG RALLY again today.
BTCUSD is still rolling into a downward price trend based on my EPP pattern structure. This downward trend aligns with my May 2 Major Bottom pattern for the SPY/QQQ. So I would expect BTCUSD to start to roll downward sometime near the middle/end of next week.
Remember, this weekend should be about your family, your friends, and your beliefs.
Relax and enjoy.
Get some...
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April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone.
In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged.
This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets.
On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500.
Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.