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TAN trade ideas

$TAN: Solar names primed for a move upIf the ETF crosses the $84.03 mark during next week a huge rally can take place, daily charts are already bullish for a few days, I got into a position in $FSLR, $ENPH and $RUN recently, but might add an ETF position in $TAN as well if the weekly signal outlined here triggers. Note that price crossed over the entire post COVID low till today Volume Profile POC here, which is an interesting technical variable, as it becomes easier to trigger a longer term trend signal as well if it gains traction next. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:TANLong
by IvanLabrie
Strong support trend line + Bullish "Flag" | 20% move possible1. "Flag (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Invesco Solar ETF (TAN:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $75.80 to the range of $92.00 - $94.00. The pattern formed over 9 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: The price seems to be resuming a sharp rally after taking a brief pause. A bullish Flag pattern occurs during a dynamic market rally, representing a brief pause as the market "catches its breath" before running off again in the same direction. The pattern consists of two parallel trend lines, often sloping downward against the prevailing uptrend, and is confirmed when the price breaks through the upper boundary to resume the rise. 2. The price came to strong support line and has been closed above that line. Target 1: $84 Target 2: $92
AMEX:TANLong
by moneytalkstome
Solar directionalsOrange directionals : Fast recovery to the upside, top out earlier than other possible directionals. The drawback is a risk of longer term decline. At the end, the challenge to the bottom middle blue line might occur here. Increased volatility is due to the distance between top and bottom. Blue directionals : Correction continues to the downside and bring solar stocks back into stable range. The drawback is a reduced ATR. The big positive will be that Solar stocks remains in range upwards that will grow for years. This will allow individual solar companies to compete on a level playing field. Yellow directionals : Solar companies have enough cash on hand and will put the capital to work. The expectation is to keep cost basis about 72.50 for the average investor in order to give investors a chance to reduce their cost basis by mid-summer, or hold the stocks. Caution : The arrows are approximately drawn for education/illustration purpose, and does not mean the prices will arrive at their ends precisely where they are drawn. All arrows may get to their targets early or break to the further upside, or decline to the downside extensively.
AMEX:TAN
by TrustThePhi
CCI, ADX, Pivot Point StrategyUsing Tan as an example, we see how we can identify periods of Accumulation and Distribution for the solar industry. My custom ADX, CCI strategy gives signs of accumulation, over buying and over selling. I've marked those points on the chart. Presently signs of uncertainty in both directions as the range sets lower highs and higher lows. This is a sign of uncertainty surrounding regulations and the future of climate change. As I mentioned I use a custom setup but check out the Investopedia on how to use the CCI. Matching the CCI with the Pivot Points High Low should yield great results. Set your Pivot Points High Low to 14/14 for the daily charts. I do believe there is a bit more downside to the trendline support there for the Solar Industry, will update you after to see what happens. Not recommending a short here, but I do recommend watching to see if some support is found in the short term, or potentially a break out of the bottom end of the range. Confirmation is needed before taking any actions.
AMEX:TAN
by D1Finance
TAN Diamond pattern: 68 retest or 92 BO to confirm wave 3 0f 5TAN for the 3rd time made a diamond reversal pattern near the base of an upchannel. However, diamond pattern may also be a continuation down pattern possibly for a retest of 68. TAN also had a big red wedge fro 126 2021 ATH & is now retesting this wedge falling below weekly wma50. BULLISH BIAS: There is a strong chance this channel will be recovered considering the last 2 strong reversals after beartrap below channel base. If TAN finally breaks above 92 in the next 2 weeks, making a higher high, this will confirm a continuation of wave 3 of 5. BEARISH CASE: last 2 weekly candles show long tails pushing prices downward. This may lead to a diamond continuation down pattern to retest 68 (the May 2021 M-pattern neck) or even the 56 June low (previous double bottoms with strong bounce), next 2 very strong supports. Not trading advice.
AMEX:TANLong
by xtremerider8
Solar panels etf green energy versus silver rocket!So the idea is based on a paired trade or what I think of as a hedged trade. Paired in that I am buying two things that I think may be correlated but both will not necessarily do well. If one does well the other may not do well and vice versa. My idea is to buy this solar energy etf as a hedge against all of the silver mining companies that I have perhaps foolishly invested in thinking that silver would go up one day! If I am wrong and silver remains depressed and even collapses further due to recessionary fears even a major depression perhaps, who knows. Anyway, if this turns bullish straight away which I do not expect but could happen then if we go over 130 on OBV and then find support there then I think go long there at least until proven otherwise. Otherwise look for support on OBV at 46 and if not there then 7.9 OBV. Worst case scenario if the world turns to custard, then it has to stop somewhere around -17.86. I would round it to -18 myself. On RSI we need to find support at 46, or 45, or 44. It may look like I am being indecisive but that is just where there is possible support levels. Below there on RSI there may be support at 39 and 36. We really need to break out of the downwards trending channel. I think breaking horizontal resistance will be more meaningful than breaking the trend lines of the channel. I think there is a very interesting looking triangle pattern that looks like it will break before 2025 or around that time at the latest. This then is my way of hedging my silver investments. Considering that silver is major component of solar panels and that if the price of silver goes down that has to be bullish for solar panel companies surely! Personally, I think that silver is hard to mine and is not that easy to find but with 70-80% of silver mined as a byproduct of other mining for base metals as well as precious metals then perhaps if there is a general boom in mining for green transition materials in particular funded by fiscal spending by governments buying votes through the green agenda then who knows it might work. Plus, if climate change is real and this is our do or die moment as a species it could all pan out. There's no alternative really. In terms of geopolitical events this could be a great hedge as well. If China and US have a war over Taiwan, then any investments in China could go down the tubes but once resolved then it would go back up maybe. China produces most of the solar panels in the world or at the least a high percentage. The main holdings in this etf many have Chinese names, so I am assuming that they are in China and probably in central Asia as well. Another thing that could be bullish is that volume is falling as price falls. It has based for a long period of time and there is potentially a cup and handle formation in the basing pattern as well. The fibonacci extensions are interesting as well. It found support at exactly the right place. It could be a bull flag.
AMEX:TANLong
by kylesutherlandsmith45
Down with solarHey all, I've long been following solar stocks as they've behaved very strangely and interestingly since the pandemic- it had an incredible markup phase that more than pumped solar stock valuations, and has yet to correct. Considering what is happening right now on its chart, I suspect that it is breaking down from distribution and preparing to head lower through year-end. Also, if you merely look to the left, solar stocks have a history of having violent falls from grace I think this thing breaks its 52W lows. Moreover, names within the sector look primed for violent moves down.
AMEX:TANShort
by MichaelEugen1
2
The Truth About Trade AccuracyA critical component relating to trading success is the relationship between your win percentage and your bottom line. Many new traders hold some extremely inaccurate views when it comes to what kind of win percentage is required to generate net profit, including the notion they need a 70% or higher win percentage to achieve success. This notion is wrong and misleading. The relationship between your win percentage, your risk management, and the profit you generate from each trade are intricately related. The beauty of this post is that the backtest logic in our Olympus Cloud indicator showcases the concepts covered with real trades, which is shown under this post in the data section. The Positive Win Percentage A win percentage over 50% is regarded as a probable edge or edge. Yet, even with a 60% win rate, you can generate a net loss. How? If your average loss is $100, but you are in the habit of falling prey to your emotions and prematurely selling your winners so you only generate an average of $50 when you win, you will lose money regardless of your 60% win rate. No trader goes into a trade thinking, “Hey, I’ll lose $100 if I’m wrong and I’ll make $50 if I’m correct.” Nevertheless, random wins of $75, $25, $60, $40, $90, and $10 will average out to $50 per win. No one purposely tries to win half of what they lose, but random trading combined with random emotions produces random results. We all desire winning and making good profits when we take a trade, but as emotions come into play, things quickly change. You may take a trade that reaches $75 in profit and then decide the move looks gassed out, so you sell. On another trade, you might get scared by some volatility, or notice a resistance you neglected to spot initially and sell for $25 of profit. It is all too common to fall prey to your emotions and behave in a way you didn’t plan to. The irony is, that you will regard the $25 trade as a winner, and it will raise your trade accuracy. Let’s look at a simple example: Example: 100 total trades with 60% trade accuracy 60 winning trades at an average of $50 per win = $3,000 40 losing trades at an average of $100 per loss = $4,000 Net loss of $1,000 In the example above, your break-even point is a 67% win percentage for a whopping $50 in profit. With this type of random risk and profit management, any meaningful net profit requires a win percentage upwards of 75-80%. The psychological damage of having a higher average loss than an average win is hard to quantify, but it’s easy to feel frustration when one loss wipes out two wins. While this sounds like common sense, many, many new traders fall into the habit of random profit management and find themselves in this undesirable situation. The same theory holds true even if you let your winners play out, but you also let your losses escalate and take a few big hits to your account. In either scenario, your 60% win rate means nothing. The Negative Win Percentage In the case of a negative win percentage, you can produce a net profit even if you are correct less than 50% of the time. In this scenario, your advantage over the market is getting into trades that consistently provide large gains when you win, and by letting those winners play out fully. Furthermore, you can’t hesitate to cut your losses and keep your drawdown controlled. With this kind of win rate, you must not sell early or your entire business model falls apart. You must understand that the big winners will make up for any profit you leave on the table. Let’s look at what happens if you are correct 40% of the time, but your average win is $100 and your average loss is $50: Example: 100 total trades with 40% trade accuracy 40 winning trades at an average of $100 per win = $4,000 60 losing trades at an average of $50 per loss = $3,000 Net gain of $1,000 It is now clear that win percentage is not everything. You can make money even if you are correct on 40% of your trades as long as your average win is double your average loss. The smaller your average win compared to your average loss, the higher your accuracy must be to make a net profit. Of course, if you can maintain a win percentage over 50% while also having proper risk and profit management you will end up far ahead. Putting It Together Clearly, the best approach is to combine a reasonable win percentage of over 50% with proper risk and profit management. You must consistently let your winners play out regardless of the emotions you feel in the moment and ensure you don’t take losses beyond a certain threshold. Furthermore, scaling out of trades – selling portions of your position as the market moves in your favor – will increase your accuracy and ease your mind. By dividing your position into two or three tranches you can lock in a certain amount of profit at predefined targets and then let the final portion ride out the trend with a trailing stop-loss. Revisiting our example, let’s put these concepts together with a reasonable win percentage: Example: 100 total trades with 55% trade accuracy 55 winning trades at an average of $100 per win = $5,500 45 losing trades at an average of $50 per loss = $2,250 Net gain of $3,250 Now, that’s what you want to see! It’s more important you behave in a consistent manner and follow a predefined game plan than it is to have 80% trade accuracy. It is wise to strive for reasonable trade accuracy – 50% to 65% – and remain consistent in order to fulfill your trading potential. After you have mastered your emotions with a consistent strategy, perhaps you can raise your win percentage to mythical values like 80%. As we have covered, though, such accuracy is not required for great trading results.
AMEX:TANEducation
by Level8Trading
1
The return of solar! My pair trade idea: SHORT OIL & LONG SOLARI wanted to hop in the latest TradingView contest and present my pair trade idea. This chart shows XLE vs. TAN. XLE is the mostly oil ETF while TAN is the mostly solar ETF. I think the recent spike in oil made perfect sense because of the supply disruptions, but I have also been following green energy for years now and the simple reality is that the technology behind green energy is improving each day in terms of efficiency and costs. The economics are improving. Burn oil once, and it's gone forever. Install a solar panel once and it produces energy forever. The thesis is simple. I actually think I might be in the minority here, but the recent rally in oil might the last rally in memory. Today, about 5% of all cars are electric. In the next five years that should number should reach 15%. In my opinion, because of high oil prices, that number will actually be closer to 30% in 5 years. I would not be surprised to see companies like Exxon use their profits from this recent rally to acquire leading solar companies or energy companies. They know the shift is here. I wonder what will happen to all the gas stations on this planet - maybe they'll become little museums? Rest stations? Convert them into electric stations? That's the idea. I am not even going to overthink it beyond that. Green energy is renewable. Anyone who believes in frugality, thrift, and/or being self-sufficient should consider looking into green energy for the simple fact it embodies that spirit. One more thing: I do think this trade will take two years to fully play out. I am not saying anyone will make money overnight on it. I do think it's worth adding to your watchlist and thinking about it well into the future.
AMEX:TAN
by scheplick
59
TAN solar etf 55.50-77.50 range bound,may retrace to 68 mid/TLTAN is now on a shortterm uptrend forming a channel just like ENPH in the post last week. It may retrace to 68 to retest the lower channel just like ENPH did. 68 is also the neck of a previous M-pattern. It is also the middle of the current trading range of 55.50 to 77.50. TAN still have a long way to go especially with the Biden Administration boosting solar energy to lessen the future dependency on oil. Target prices are 90 & 100 & the all-time-high at 125. Not trading advice
AMEX:TANLong
by xtremerider8