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TBT trade ideas

TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically. Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AssetDesign
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT / TLT T Bill Inverse TreasuriesOn this daily chart of the ratio of TBT ( Treasury Bills Bearish ) to TLT ( the inverse Bullish) over time. This serves to accentuate shifts in prices from factors affecting them both but with opposite effects. Federal actions or even reports of economic data are some of those factors. This chart shows that about November 1st, TBT ad topped out and fell. They are inverses of one another . What makes one go down will make the other go up and viceversa. By February 1, TBT bottomed out and the ratio reversed. The cycle took 3 months. On a lower time frame, cycling would be more frequent. At present, it would appear to be time to sell TLT and / or buy TBT What applies to the TBT /TLT ratio would also relate to TMV / TMF as a ratio.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT Inverse Treasuries ( Long Dates ) LONGTBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a broadening channel ( a megaphone pattern) reflecting increasing volatility as federal action or inaction gets priced into buying decisions at treasury auctions. As for me, i will continue to build a TBT position until it is obvious that the fed has launched an active agenda of rate cuts which will fortify T-bill prices and make TLT the new runner.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT- an ETF bearish on bondsTBT on the one hour chart demonstrates a clear round bottom reversal in late June with a good trend up this past week. Price rose above the POC line of the volume profile on July 3th showing bullish momentum dominating. Price has continued to ascend above the Chris Moody sling shot indicator affirming that momentum. Given the current fed posture hawkish for another rate increase fixed rate bonds will suffer yet again. Other indicators show rising upward volatility and relative volume which further support the strength of the trend. Time is ripe for a swing trade in TBT.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
🐹 Caution To All TLT Hamsters - TBT Has More Room to DeliverTBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF. This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly. 2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop. 3. Be patient and use alerts to get notified when the time is right. 4. Measure trading ranges and adjust your plan for sideways action. 5. Look for bases and consolidations. 6. Zoom out and look for historical levels of support and resistance within those bases or consolidations. 7. Markets can go sideways longer than traders can stay solvent. 8. Adjust your stop loss and take profit targets for the choppy price action. 9. Be prepared for false breakouts and false breakdowns. 10. Choppy markets do not trade like trending markets. Technical picture in AMEX:TBT indicates it has possibility to further upside price action, up to 57 - 60 U.S. dollars per share, as key multi year resistance (5-years simple MA) has been successfully broken at the end of 2022.
AMEX:TBT
by Pandorra
$TBT Double Top AMEX:TBT Double Top, A "double top" is a popular term used in technical analysis to describe a chart pattern that suggests a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern: 1. **Formation**: The double top pattern forms after a strong upward move or trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between, which is called the "neckline". 2. **First Peak**: The first top is formed when the upward trend reaches a resistance level and sees a reversal, leading to a price decline. 3. **Trough**: After the first peak, the price undergoes a correction, which leads to the formation of the trough. This decline is a sign of short-term profit-taking but isn't strong enough to signal a trend reversal yet. 4. **Second Peak**: Following the trough, the price will attempt to rally again, moving back towards the level of the first peak. However, it will once again meet resistance and fail to break through, leading to the formation of the second peak. 5. **Breakdown**: After the formation of the second top, if the price breaks below the neckline or the lowest point of the trough, it's a confirmation of the double top pattern and signals a trend reversal. The expected downward move can be approximately the same vertical distance as that between the peaks and the neckline. 6. **Volume**: Typically, volume tends to be higher on the left peak than on the right one. A noticeable increase in volume on the breakdown through the neckline can serve as additional confirmation. 7. **Significance**: The double top pattern is considered a powerful signal, especially when spotted on longer timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly charts. However, as with all technical analysis patterns, it's essential to use additional indicators and methods to confirm a potential trade. Remember, while the double top can be a reliable indicator of a trend reversal, no single method is foolproof, and it's essential always to use risk management techniques.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
TBT- a bearish treasury ETF LONGTBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above price suggests a lot of trading above price and likely short sellers. A longer time interval volume profile shows the POC line more than $1.00 below current price. Price could easily gravitate in the direction of that price magnet. Overall, I see a bias for a bearish move and will watch this to confirm. i will play this with put options to leverge the amplitude of the move albeit at higher risk.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
TBT Treasuries Bear Leveraged ETFTBT is going to take another swing now that interest rates are going up. Fundamentally, Treasuries and other bonds will go down on their real face value because their yield is lower than the new going rate. Inverse EFTs like TBT will go up when Treasuries go down. On the w Chart chart, price is sitting above the POC line of the volume profile where there is support and high volatility. Above the line shows buyers in control ready to move price higher. The Awesome Oscillator flipped green today after the fed news showing that selling momentum has been replaced by buying momentum ( capitulation at the bottom). The volume indicator shows a clear uptick in buying volume. TBT offers options to further leverage this trade. I will take a call options position of several contracts for the 5/12 expiration at a strike about 5% below the current price. I expect 100% return on risk by next Monday and more after that.
AMEX:TBTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TBT Bull Flag. MACD + RSI DivergenceTBT, the Long Rate Fund; Or short TLT fund is showing signs of strength on the MACD and RSI; with divergences. The previous month saw high volume indicating interest around the current price levels. It is sitting at the 200 SMA. Currently much of the market is pricing in rate drops. However, we have have FOMC on May 2nd, and have been hearing roomers of another rate hike by the FED. If this happens, TBT will likely go up, confirming the divergences on the graph, and breaking out of the current wedge.
AMEX:TBTLong
by loves2spooge
Stopping Volume Spike TBT. Bull Flag Formation after breakout. TBT, the short TLT 20 year bond ticker looks neutral in the short term and bullish in the longer term. High volume breakout of descending pattern down, and now a bull flag set up. A high volume spike and a stopping bar down has preceded a move up twice over the the last year. This is speculation over higher rates in the general market and from the fed, which would be correlated with lower equity valuations based on DCFs and opportunity costs associated with being in stocks vs bonds.
AMEX:TBTLong
by International_Leeroy
TBT, D1 | Potential bullish reversalPrice is approaching a key support level, it could bounce and we could see the momentum carry price up to its take profit target. Entry: 26.73 Why we like it: There is an overlap support Stop Loss: 26.00 Why we like it: There is an intermediate overlap support Take Profit: 32.61 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
AMEX:TBTLong
by VantageMarkets
TBT - Short SetupLooking at both TLT and TBT here. TLT first: TLT has I think completed an ABC zig-zag down to $112.6 where it has overshot the 1:1 Fibonacci extension to bounce and print a shakeout reversal pattern as can be seen well on the monthly chart with the wick passing through the 1:1 fib and printing a hammer. Worth noting that the textbook will say a hammer at the low is bullish, but here it does I think indicate the trend will turn, but perhaps find a lower low first. Looking on the daily TLT has formed a corrective ascending wedge on the bounce of which price is falling out of now. This I think will see the dominant trend resume a little longer to print Wyckoff ST Secondary Test to again move back through the fib extension. Long term support of October 2018 is at $11.9 and I think TLT will hit or overshoot this to form ST. This ST would potentially also be a wave B of a corrective expanded flat bottom. Its worth considering that TLT could continue to the next fib at $95 but I just dont think there is much chance of that. RSI has hit the lower band on the monthly RSI which has never even got close to before so $95 wont happen I dont think. Or not at least without a big bounce first. Now, if TLT does this then TBT is going to go higher. And TBT also has a long term landmark of resistance from Jul 2016 at $29.45. It is currently printing what appears to be a 3 wave pattern which will likely be an ABC correction. This wave up now has been a bit more impulsive than potential A so I think this may well be a 1:1.618 C wave also considering that it has moved passed and also potentially found support on the 1:1 extension at $24.58. And so a 1.618 extension would take TBT to $32.64 slightly higher than long term resistance and once it moves back down it will have printed a shakeout reversal pattern. And so if it does get to $32.64 then i'll enter a short. But if I see a bearish reversal through resistance then I will go short there. If this happens I will be buying a LEAP put as far out as I can probably 2024, although if it is September (probably not) when it gets there then i'll buy 2025 put. Btw if of interest do see my previous TLT ideas where I called it to hit $113 back in September when it was at $146 and hardly anyone though it could get here. Not advice.
AMEX:TBTShort
by dRends35
6
$TBT 2x (Ultra) Short 20 Year Treasuries Ready to Break-Out?This will be a very simple trade for me. I have already placed a Buy-Stop Order GTC @ 19.04 which is one penny above the most previous high. See my line on the chart. The reasoning for the trade is that if rates exceed that previous high they are likely to continue to climb. Of course, I'll have a very tight stop which will be no more than 1% risk, maybe less if the chart allows it. I have no idea if this will trigger or how long it may take if it does. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Note this is a weekly chart to help take out some noise on daily moves.
AMEX:TBTLong
by jaxdog