TIP trade ideas
Ratio US10Y bond with protected for inflation oneReflation trade entering possible supply area $IEF, $TIP
TIP monthly - mixed pictureRSI is around 50, MACD is still negative. The price itself is in the twilight zone but it will have to break out or break down. Need to watch this closely as it has definite implication for asset allocation.
TIP monthly - breaking downTIP is falling out of long term consolidating triangle and and may signaling continued disinflation. If this trend continues, we expect continued lower rate environment (meaning weaker dollar).
TIP/TLT reflation/ deflation indicatorWhile TIP/SHY or,which is the same TIP/IEF indicators show high correlation with GOLD price, TIP/TLT? which measures reflation/ deflation seems to suggest GOLD likes deflation more..whats the explanation?
TIP monthly - fully bullish look - 7/30/2016TIP breaks out of the range. Since bottomed last December, TIP appreciated almost 7%. Rising inflation expectation is good for precious metal and commodities.
TIP monthly - breaking out - 6/30/2016TIP is now having fully bullish look. This may confirm the bullish case for commodities and precious metals, and this may spell trouble for bonds.
Tip and Gold ShortTip and Gold Short. Tip sold to day and we are over extended just like gold think we will now start to head down as gold will drop with TIP I now think that we might get a interest rate hike witch will help banks next week and gold will fall out of the skys. Gold is in green look how they work together.
TIP weekly - breaking out - 3/18/2016TIP finally breaks out. It validated the weak dollar, strong gold, and maybe anticipating some form of QE (given the weakening economy).
TIP monthly - still looks weak - 2/9/2016A weaker inflation indicates weak demands, and weak economy. And it will be bad news for housing, for commodities, etc. So let's hope this thing can turn around soon.
TIP monthly - where is the inflation? - 8/19/2015TIP lost another dollar and change this month (so far), 10 month MA is pointing downward. RSI broke trend and MACD is negative. So Fed can raise rate at this point? I do not think so.
Also no point for Fed to raise rate at a time when commodities are crashing, and China is floating their currency down.
I expect more unwinding of rate hike expectation, and thus weaker dollar, stronger commodities, stronger emerging market and stronger bonds.
What Does The Market Think Of Inflation/Deflation$TIP-TLT Inter-market relationships can provide invaluable info. Let test of lows play out before making any serious 'risk' asset purchases
Brian
TIP monthly update - bearish - 6/5/2015TIP started June with a bearish tone with support broken (tentatively). Note the serial lower highs since last October and downward pointing 10 month MA. RSI is weakening with broken support and MACD is turning negative (so far).
With this backdrop I highly doubt the Fed will raise rate any time soon, as that makes no sense.
TIP monthly - bearish - 5/20/2015TIP is weakening since the start of the year and is now breaking the red support. TIP usually is used to hedge inflation risk for bond investors (it has 13.68 B asset with a yield of 1.63%). Note the 10 MA is rolling over and now pointing down.
If TIP is falling, meaning investors do not worry about unexpected inflation. I think this is one reason the Fed may not raise interest rate any time soon.
TIP monthly - inflation gauge - 4/15/2015going a bit higher since last update... will be very bullish if blue lines are cleared (meaning higher inflation figure, and/or expectation). Note 10 MA is already cleared.
Inflation Expectations. TIPSvs7-10. Will long term support hold?Inflation Expectations.
iShares TIPS Bond vs iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond.
The support line noted in dashed blue, has held since the aftermath of the 2008 crash. Reaching a double bottom.
Will it hold ?
RSI is reaching support line, oversold territory.
