TMF 20 year 3x Leveraged Treasuries ETFTMF completed an uptrend from 3/28 to 4/6 and then a retracement of it.
It is now positioned above the 0.5 Fibonacci level also the VWAP of the anchored
multisession VWAP indicator in the fair value ( and high volatility ) area also
near to and importantly above the POC line of the intermediate-term volume
profile. This high confluence yields strong support for the continuation of
an uptrend targetting $10.00 the pivot high this past February with a stop loss
of $8.92. For those looking for a high reward entree with the requistite
risk appetite a call option with a strike of $9.00 or $ 9.50 expiring 5/19
or 6/16 might be what is on the menu.
TMF trade ideas
Pennant (Bullish) | 27% move possibleDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury forms bullish "Pennant" chart pattern
"Pennant (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury (TMF:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $9.02 to the range of $11.00 - $11.50. The pattern formed over 9 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: The price seems to be resuming a sharp rally after taking a brief pause.
A bullish Pennant pattern occurs during a dynamic market rally, representing a brief period of indecision before running off again in the same direction. The pattern consists of two converging trend lines with diminishing volume, and is confirmed when the price breaks through the upper boundary to resume the advance.
Bullish continuation triangle on dailyWith the daily RSI in oversold territory 30 rsi and the MACD looking as if bottomed ready to rebound in unison with the rsi.. dmi/adx will reverse with green dmi+ crossing up above the red dmi- and the yellow adx rising above 25 signaling strong upwards trend strength..this will play ouy.. what's happening now is the ADX currently at about 18 is signaling a very weak current trend strength signaling a due for a change in direction any time now, that being from going down to going up.. as the trend changes the rsi will rise accordingly to price action typically to overbought territory at the 70 rsi which signals a change to the downside once it is crossed up and then back down or bounced off of... when the rsi is above 50 it is showing current trend strength non directionaly.. with the spy dropping and the dxy rising with the vix it looks as if this will rise as well. Comparing all these indicators at the same time is the best way to confirm trend direction and trend change and strength.
Bottom Triangle | 40% move possibleDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury forms bullish "Bottom Triangle" chart pattern
"Bottom Triangle" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury (TMF:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $9.64 to the range of $13.00 - $13.80. The pattern formed over 60 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: The price seems to have reached a bottom, showing signs of reversal as it has broken upward after a period of uncertainty or consolidation.
A Bottom Triangle shows two converging trendlines as prices reach lower highs and higher lows. Volume diminishes as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range reflecting uncertainty in the market direction. Then well before the triangle reaches its apex, the price breaks above the upper trendline with a noticeable increase in volume, confirming this bullish pattern as a reversal of the prior downtrend.
TMF | 20-Year Treasury - 3x Bull ETFThe fund, under normal circumstances, invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, securities of the index, and ETFs that track the index and other financial instruments that provide daily leveraged exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index. The index is a market value weighted index that includes publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than 20 years. The fund is non-diversified.
Treasuries: As usual, I was a little earlyI was waiting for the end of the wave to occur, but with the appearance of a descending wedge I know a buy opportunity awaits us. My apologies, I was just a little early! What worries me though is that with a rise in the treasuries perhaps the wider market will sell off?
BONDS OVER STOCKS 2020With equities looking increasingly volatility and valuations as frothy as ever, long term bonds have been quietly outperforming recently. I expect this trend to continue for foreseeable future and for us to rise 5-13% from here conservatively.
The global climate is shifting to reducing risk and buying safe haven assets. Therefore, 20 year bonds will likely continue to be a source that reaps the benefits of capital outflow from stocks and into US treasuries.
TLT Write calls - wedge bullish breakout plus H & S reversalSee other 2 YR treasury bullish call today - Bullish bonds - buy TLT calls - see near term reversal in TLT. Shoulda woulda listened to Raoul Pal in fall of 2018. Now I am listening in 2019 as it appears this trade may have some room to run. Basically bullish short >> long term bonds (but bullish all bonds).