TMV Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 072824Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 34.4/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the Support
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
TMV trade ideas
20 yr Bond Yield attempting to break resistance. Ruh Roh Shaggy20 yr Bond Yield attempting to break through a 4 month channel resistance. If we can get through and stay above it, Long Bond Yields should get into the Mid 5's and might even challenge 6%. TLT could challenge all time lows ( $80 ) if we can get up there. Great Swing Trade Opportunity both ways.
TMV Triple Inverse Treasury Bill ETF LONGTMV on the 4H chart appears to be reversing a trend down since 12/28. YTD it is rising.
The reasonable target is the Fib 0.5 retracement at $40 while support for a stop loss
just below the POC line of the volume profile is $29.25. As such this is a 35% upside.
The RSI indicator shows the fast RSI rising and crossing over the slower RSI while the
relative volume indicator shows increasing volumes reacting to the price bottoming and
accumulation underway. I see this as a long trade set up while recognizing that fundamentals
such as interest rate adjustments and inflation data could impact the technicals.
TMV - Inverse 20 year treasuryAMEX:TMV broke out of a downtrend at the end of 2023 and gapped up with todays open. I'm playing this shift in momentum tightly. I'm entering here and planning to take profit at 36.77, which aligns to the volume weighted average price anchored to 5/19/23 (entering consolidation prior to July 2023 breakout) and 10/19/23 (last strong buying day prior to 2023 peak). This is also just under the 0.382 fib of a retrace from the October high.
This move is invalidated if we fall below ~30.33, which is half of a 21 period ATR below the VWAP anchored to 12/21 (highest volume buying near the December low).
Note, today also marks record high buying volume for TMV. The second highest was 2/25/21, within one month of a local top. The third highest was 5/18/23, one month after a local bottom.
I set a fib time zone from a high prior to consolidation at 5/26/23 to the 6/23/23 low during consolidation. It aligns closely to changes in direction. The next is early May 2024.
3x Inverse TLT ETF: Breaking Out of Descending Broadening WedgeThe Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher.
I previously said I would repost this chart after the split so that the numbers would be accurate, and now that split has happened. I have my eyes on the $36 to hold and am currently looking to get some calls for that strike price expiring next year.
It's worth noting the Partial-Decline we got before breaking out of the Broadening wedge, which makes it more likely to play out.
3x Inverse TLT ETF: Breaking Out of Descending Broadening WedgeThe Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher.
TMV setting up a reversal LONGOn this 4H chart- TMV the leverage bear Treasuries ETF has been trending up
in a parallel channel. AT present it bounced from the top of the channel and is
heading down to the bottom of the channel. It is there that I will trade long
where the bottom of the channel is confluent with the mean VWAP providing
an overlap of dynamic support. Near that same level is the POC line of the
volume profile. Price needs to stay above the POC line for the probabilities to
tell me to trade long. Roughly I am looking for a trade from 145 to about 160 for
a 10% move more or less. The stop loss under the channel trend line for about 1.5
and so the ratio is about 6. Once in the area of the bottom of the channel. I will
look to the indicators and zoom into 15-30 minutes as a time frame to find the
entry. I will entertain taking a trade in a fair number of shares and potentially
buy a put option for insurance against the downside to hedge against losses.
I expect the trade to last a week or less and so averaging about 2% gain daily.
#TMV trade plan up to 15-SepStraddle was build up in small etf TMV (ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT is $289.32M), straddle volume is about 10% of average daily volume.
Support/resistance levels may work more accurate due to the low liquidity of the given ETF
Based on our team's research of the options market, we expect buy activity at the support level or sell activity at the resistance.
We primarily consider levels to be activity zones, but not to be a super-fine level for establishing a limit order. Use them in combination with our own strategy, not in alone.
TMV leverage inverse ETF for treasuries SHORTTMV on the one-hour chart tested two standard deviations above the mean VWAP in
both late May and early July it fell to one standard deviation below VWAP but then rose
sharply into beyond the two standard deviations line ( thick red ) ascending into a YTD high.
I believe that this is due to the recent federal debt creditworthiness downgrade.
The threatened rise of BRICS reserve currency and potentially adversely affects the
value of the dollar ( DXY) while supporting gold prices. I see this as a good continuation play
no matter the overextension of price. Both the dual MTF and the zero lag MACD however
suggest a pullback. The mass flow indicator does as well. As a result I will look at TMF
to go long trusting the indicators to give me a directional bias.
TMV Treasuries Leveraged 3X Short Inverse LongTMV is an ETF Shorting the Treasuries. On the 2H chart, price is rising as the treasuries are
suffering value contraction while interest rates are steady or projected to rise. The chart shows
rising volumes, upwards volatility as well as a PV Trend demonstrating trend strength. I see
these all as confirmatory for bullish momentum. I will take a long trade into the next round
of federal news. The employment data showing strength in new jobs and low unemployment
will likely lead to another rate hike as the fed continues to try to beat down inflation and
will not relent in face of those data pieces. CPI and PPI may add fuel to the fire this week
and TMV may continue to rise.
TMV is a Super-Simple Way to Short the Bond MarketBond yields are screaming upward, and they won't slow down until they overtake the rate of inflation - so we are basically at 5%+ on a T-bill right now, and probably headed toward double digits by end of winter. Yields Up = Prices Down. Short them until inflation returns to about 2%.
Shorting bonds is of course a little hard for a retail investor, but I have a couple of ETFs that work very well for it. TMV and TTT have proven quite profitable. TMV is up 114.5% in the last 12 months, and about 59.23% YTD. TTT has similar numbers, just some admin fee differences, up 116.5% in last 12 months, and 59.64% YTD.
When these start to level off, just sell the shares and flip all of it into whole $1k bonds. As yields begin to go downward, the values of new-issued / higher-yielding bonds will go to the moon. I made about an 85% return in 3 months in June 2020 doing the same strategy, I shorted them on the way down in June, then bought everything so cheap that I actually had internal interest 12% yields coming off from what I was actually buying Corporate AA+ bonds for. By October, I sold that stuff for ginormous gains when everyone realized the sky wasn't falling.
Using the same approach - I recommend shorting the snot out of real estate too. Technical indicators are pointing toward 10% +/- first mortgage rates by January, and that will kill the housing prices. DRV is a good short ETF tool.
AMEX:TTT
AMEX:TMV
Apologies - I should have posted this a couple of months ago, but people tend to want to see trend/evidence.. I jumped in these around May.
Don't underestimate Burry's predictionsLong-term bond yields will continue to rise in response to higher inflation expectations. Therefore, instruments like TTT, TMV and TBT have ample room to continue rising (you can see the positive correlation between the two).
In addition, all 3 appear in the portfolio of Scion Asset Management, owned by Michael Burry. I simply do not subscribe to the idea that he has already liquidated these positions, considering that the inflation that he foresees has not yet materialized and that the fed has not raised rates yet, not counting the fact that he is not usually the guy who sells before his bet is fully completed, he is able to hold very risky assets for a long time, and I think this is the case. From my perspective, this is just the beginning.
A good old hedge against inflation If inflation is given and interest rates do not rise, expect negative real rates on long-term bonds. If inflation rises faster than the possible rate hike, expect negative real rates on long-term bonds.
If real rates on long-term bonds fall, expect a rise in inverse ETFs like this one. They have been one of Burry's bets to protect himself from the inflationary escalation that he foresees.
AMEX:TMV
The latest report of the portfolio positions of Scion Asset Management was published last Monday, May 17, I recommend checking it out.
Parabolic Decline in Long Term Interest Rates Nears a BottomDirexion's TMV, Triple Bear ETF on 20+ Year Interest Rates,
last week broke major Daily Pattern Support at 15, with volume
and closed Friday at 14.01, down nearly 4 % on the day.
To my eyes, it looks to have been a total capitulation breakdown.
The contrary idea here is that the long end of the bond market 20 + year
is in a parabolic advance, that is crucial for understanding this idea, ( See Chart)
as rates plummet towards 2 %, on the 10 Year Bond (TNX)
a rare phenomena, as investors seem beside themselves to buy bonds right now.
Looking at the momentum Indicator on TMV,
the stochastic you can clearly see it is now at it's 3rd bottom,
in the same deeply oversold area.
They are letting you buy a triple bottom here, another rare phenomena.
The idea is to go long or buy TMV, perhaps as early as Monday's Open,
thinking that 90 days from now, or by Sept 1, 2019
long term interest rates would have bottomed above 2%,
and would have been well along in a move back to 2.50%,
as the latest yield curve inversion, becomes a thing of the past
,as the Fed refuses to play patsy, to go along with the crowd,
and lower interest rates this summer.
So if you agree with any of this assumption,
then just sit back and wait, as the economic superpowers find a way to grease the skids,
to keep the world economic expansion going,.. no matter what the cost.
Conclusion :
Long Term Rates, 20 + Year will begin to rise again this summer.
Recommendation:
Buy TMV
14.01 Last
THE_UNWIND
6/2/19
NEW YORK