TZA trade ideas
The DXY and Yields are Still Set Up for a Bullish ReversalLast night, the DXY went below the PCZ of the Bullish Alt-Bat and bottomed out at the Demand Line of the channel it has been trading within, and at the same time, it formed a Bullish Butterfly with double PPO confirmation. Now it is back above the Moving Averages and on the rise. Meanwhile, the yields have seemingly bottomed out at the 200 SMA at the PCZ of a Bullish Shark and looks to be ready to make some new highs.
The QQQ has been getting pumped a lot because of money flowing into big tech, so I have opted not to focus so much on trading against the QQQ and will instead shift my focus against the IWM via the 3x Inverse ETF $TZA. TZA is at the 200 moving average, aligning with the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Crab with some PPO Confirmation, I think this will make new highs soon. if the QQQ goes back below 360 then I will cosnider jumping back on the Bearish QQQ trade.
Bearish BAMM on the 3x Bearish Return IWM Bearish ETFThe 3x Bearish Return ETF for the IWM is currently showing Hidden Bearish Divergence on the weekly at the 55-week EMA, and it looks like if this Hidden Bearish Divergence plays out we will see the ETF fall below the B point and begin to accelerate its Bearish Wave Structure which would complete between the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions.
This would mean that the IWM (The Russel 2000) itself would be rising.
As a result of what I see here on the chart, I may consider buying puts on this ETF, Buying IWM Calls, or just overall getting more exposure to small caps and just taking this as an overall Macro Bullish Indicator.
"Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion1. "Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares . This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $25.48 to the range of $37.00 - $38.75.
Tells Me: After a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue.
A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
2. Price already came to strong support level, so it's perfect time to buy!
3. Trendline was broken.
Target: $37,5; $50.
TZA - Small Cap Bear ETF - HEDGEDaily RSI bounced back just above 30 with a rising ADX indicator. Most everything seems to be at overbought conditions as Fed policy is still tightening. Yields up, Dollar up, speculative assets DOWN. Small caps don't stand a very good chance of profiting in a deflationary environment. Expecting more bankruptcies, layoffs, & defaults. Indexes could fall hard from these levels. Staying HEDGED for the DEBT BUBBLE implosion.
WHY INVERSE ETF IS NOT AN INVESTMENTSomeone asked me about TZA, the Russell 2k inverse bear fund etf. These inverse bear ETFs DO NOT CONTAIN STOCK. They hold only futures contracts, which continually EXPIRE, like options. These funds are effectively like put option substitutes, they suffer severe, continuous time decay.
Please observe price since inception. That is not a typo. Adjusted for reverse splits over the years, price has declined from $1.5m to $36 per share last week.
People ask me, "How high can it go? If Russell sells off 10% more, will they go up 30%?" Well, maybe IF it it sells off 10% NEXT WEEK. IF NOT, then it might not increase at all, time decay is considerable and if market takes three months to sell off again, these shares will be more likely to trade in the $12-20 area, even if the market moves in their favor. Time decay is real, you cannot hold these more than a few days or at most weeks, even during the most bearish of markets.
A strong bear market rally like we had last week melts inverse ETFs and the price NEVER COMES BACK, they get to lower highs with each successive bear move. Pull the chart out to right to see recent etf price moves during covid and in corrections since. It never gets back to the previous highs.
Guaranteed to wipe out your Roth IRA and Education Trust funds, please don't bet the farm on these!
Instruments of financial suicide IMO. I have successfully traded them but rarely hold more than a week.
Bull 2x, 3x ETFs work the same way, in the other direction, they are long on futures contracts, and in a bull market like 2021, they just go up all year with a few minor setbacks, doubling and doubling. But when the Bear comes, the Bull funds crack in half or worse. TQQQ, the bull 3x shares, traded at $25 last week, down from $125 in January, gosh, -80%!!
This past few months has been most bearish since 2008 and the inverse funds did quite well, other than the March rally which cut them in half...
If you buy them here you're probably buying at a near-term market bottom, paying high premium price for these funds, and getting set up to hold the bag. Even if price does not change much over the summer, these ETFs will time decay and can easily go in half over three months!
I personally know of one contributor who invested a large sum in SQQQ during the bear move in September 2021, buying at or near the market bottom, he paid $45 for it in September 21. Asked me what to do? 'I lost so much, will it come back?!' Sadly, NO. Last week the price was $50 bucks again, yay, got his money back, right?! WRONG. Stock REVERSE split 1:5 last year when it traded under six bucks. So you got 1 share for every five you had, an 80% loss (AGAIN THAT 80% LOSS FIGURE). Hold it for a few more months to lose another 50%, be out 90%, etc etc. If you hold these long enough, you WILL lose 99% of your investment, guaranteed.
Attached link on UVXY Kudos to Hungry_Hippo, same most excellent advice!
Leveraged funds are tricky as Hell and will cut your account in half again and again if you do not time the market exactly! Good luck with that!
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Short. Is The US market crash?Is The US market crash coming ?
We have 3 types of “crashes”
Correction <15% downward movement in a major indicy
Bear Market <20% downward movement in a major indicy
Black Swan event, something very unexpected that tanks the market, think 1987, 1929, challenger disaster, 911 and so on.
The fourth type is the 1919, 1929, 1999 and 2008 scenario that people generally refer to as a “crash” 2022 a new one ?
Sincereley L.E.D In Spain 14/05/2022
Risk Management Trading is a business based on probabilities, therefore the key to success in this field is to stack the odds/probabilities in your favor - in simpler terms take high probability trades.
Idea behind this trade : parabolic move upwards
Reasoning: BB bands tightening up- this is generally seen right before an explosive move -
Price is above the ATR indicating a bullish environment
Conclusion: TZA can potentially have a massive move upwards
* I always prioritize excellence in risk management, therefore in every trade you take no matter your level of conviction you must always protect your capital, my favorite forms of risk management is :
1. Hedge
2. Diversification
3. Position sizing
4. Stop loss
Just to name a few