UGA trade ideas
$UGA getting set to rip higherTarget would represent a 25% gain in the ETF. Wait for the breakout, then pounce
UGA | Gasoline Oversold | LONGThe fund invests in futures contracts for gasoline, other types of gasoline, crude oil, diesel-heating oil, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels. The Benchmark Futures Contract is the futures contract on gasoline as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration.
UGA, LONG , Hammer/Vol entry Was planning on waiting for a wedge pop but since UGA became my best trade of 2022 so far and we have a decent high volume hammer here today , I am taking this as a first buy and hopefully can add a second position on the WP when and if it happens .
Entry 70.53
Stop 66.99
PT 1 - 74.04 sell 1/4 raise stop to half risk
P2 2 - 77.25 Sell 1/4
PT 3 - just because clause and or WD
UGA, LONG Although I am not allowed to take longs in stock market now with the SPY and QQQ under their 21 emas , I have decided to try modifying my rules to still allow for commodities related longs .As long as they maintain overall low correlation to the market , I think its very reasonable to try out some commodities long bets even the market in RTM mode ( red trading mode ) .
I could be wrong on this , but my linked research ,though fairly basic, I think supports the idea that QQQ and SPY below their 10/21 ema's might not reduce odds in this setup since the correlation of DBC VS SPY is very weak currently .
So , that being said I decided to try out UGA because I sort of think that gasoline is probably going to march higher still .
I see breakout of downward wedge / drop n pop setup
Entry 55.95
Stop 54.74
PT 58.54 ( de -risk )
UGA 2h Wolfe Wave Short SideUGA 2h Wolfe Wave Short Side from TOS Option. A Wolfe Wave is a chart pattern composed of five wave patterns in price that imply an underlying equilibrium price. Investors who use this system time their trades based upon the resistance and support lines indicated by the pattern.
UGA wakes up, Here's another chart like 2013 - Gasoline pricesApparently Bitcoin is resembling 2013 - well, the last time we saw gas prices this high was in 2013-2014. Experts say to expect a run-up through July. I noted last Fall, if you want to make yourself feel better, maybe (not financial advice) buy some UGA and when you fill up at the pump you will feel like you are paying yourself. :-)
You can see the chart here:
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UGA continues up, I think about it every time I buy gasEvery time I drive buy a gas station or when I fill up, I think to myself that I should buy enough United States Gasoline Fund to cover the rising cost of fuel.
Of course, I'd have to pay short-term tax - but wouldn't it cool if we could direct UGA profit to a debit card and pay for our gas that way? :-) Just a random thought...
US Gasoline fund up 42% since November hits pre-Covid resistanceI don't hold UGA but track it as a bellwether on the overall economy. Up 42% since Nov it has seen strong gains since Nov.
UGA MA MACD Histogram just turned positiveA buy signal is generated. This is a Bullish indicator signaling UGA's price could rise from here. Traders may explore going long the stock or buying call options. I identified 41 similar cases where UGA's MACD histogram became positive, and 36 of them led to successful outcomes. Odds of Success: 88%.
LONG UGA @ $8.50#Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures bottom close here at $.54 as gasoline crack spread (difference between spot price of crude oil & gasoline) looks to be bouncing from lows.. Hourly chart showing capitulation volume & bullish RSI divergence suggesting downtrend weakening $UGA $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 10:53AM CST
twitter.com
There it is.. #Gasoline $RB_F RBOB futures likely long-term bottom here @ $.46 with massive capitulation volume & hammer candle rally back over $.50 or $UGA $8.80.. Expect gasoline futures upside rally to backtest 10dayEMA @ $.80 spot price or $14 $UGA stock price $USO $VLO - Twitter Post @CashFlo @ 1:27PM CST
Playing this upside move with UGA October 16th $16 calls @ 1.00
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UGA - Adding More Fuel to the FireAs the financial community focuses on the rally in oil, one by-product that has not received much attention but has performed just as well, is gasoline (UGA as a proxy).
Since January 2019, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have rallied 37% so far this year to $63 a barrel, with gasoline prices not too far behind, rallying over 29.79% year-to-date.
One reason for this rise in gasoline prices, has been the fact that global demand for crude and crude oil products has been much stronger than expected. Growth projections indicated sluggish demand for fossil fuels in 2019, but instead the global appetite for fossil fuel products has been very strong for the year, especially in emerging markets.
On the supply side, OPEC and its allies have cut oil production output, at the same time US sanctions have been holding back Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports into the international markets.
Lastly, against this global economic backdrop, as drivers are starting to get ready for the seasonal summer driving season, their need for gasoline will be provide a nice support for the commodity, and will only drive the price higher.
Going forward, we believe that this current environment will provide further room for gasoline to move higher until the end of the summer.
We recommend a tactical long position on gasoline (UGA) until then, to profit from this seasonal trend.
Play the Rebound on Oil and GasolineStory : For a number of highly-discussed ab debated reasons, that do not need to be presented here, petrochemicals have seen a substantial devaluation over the course of the last 2 months. While the view from a macro-perspective remains bearish, a rebound from the recent sharp downturn would not a surprise.
Note : The trades presented offer a 1 to 1.75-2.0 risk/reward and are positions taken in my portfolio.
Gasoline increased 0.01 USD/GAL or 0.36%Gasoline prices to be volatile ahead of Trump conference: McKnight
Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst, with En-pro International joins BNN for a closer look at gasoline prices across Canada. He says that gasoline prices will reflect Trump coming into office and news from OPEC.
United States Gasoline Fund Testing Rising Channel SupportUnited States Gasoline Fund Testing Rising Channel Support and downtrend resistance with FIBO levels
Major Deflation Indicator Alert, UGAOver the past two months, the United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UGA), which tracks gasoline has fallen around 14% from the recent top of $64.27, to a low of $55.16. The drop in the UGA share price occurred after the stock broke a technical major trend line level.
Many talking heads in the media are looking at this drop and saying that it will benefit the economy. They are promoting that this should be viewed as a positive for the markets going forward. This banter from the talking heads contrasts their words when the UGA rises. At that point they are quick to point out how the increase is viewed as a tax hike on working Americans, and that it has a negative impact on the markets. But is that the case?
During the financial crisis of 2008, this leading indicator of inflationary or deflationary pressure bottomed out three months prior to the markets. The United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UGA) made a low of $16.10, during December of 2008 and never looked back. It continued to make higher highs and higher lows until topping out during mid June. The UGA led the markets, until recently. The sharp sell off in the United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UGA) is a sign of deflation creeping into the markets, it is certainly something we must pay attention to.
With all the geopolitical tensions around the world, oil and gasoline prices should not have fallen as sharply. The United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UGA) as well as oil prices are telling us things contrary to what the media or governments want us to believe; that there is a major slow down in the global economy. The chart of the United States Gasoline Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UGA) is confirming that.
As traders all we look to do is to be on the right side of any trade. Just like how we alerted readers of the Rant & Rave blog HERE, warning them of the bearish set up on oil indicating a move lower was coming. We also alerted members of the Elite Round Table of a Head and Shoulders top in play, when the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO) closed below $36.92, as a time to go short the stock and sector; our profit target was $34.40 and we all made a great profit on that trade all by following the charts and not the media noise.
Now there will be a great buying opportunity for these commodities, and with the right set up on the charts, another shorting opportunity as well. Regardless of the direction of the markets, there is always a trade to profit from it. Come join us as continually and consistently provide calls like these from the past month and more. For market moving news as well as important updates make sure to join our mailing list here. Or bypass the free content and get right to the money making action, join us at the Elite Round Table now.
Oil Prices Are Important, But Gasoline Prices DominateAnytime there is a geopolitical event taking place in the Middle East the price of oil seems to surge higher. That was the case recently as light crude oil futures (CL) jumped as high as $112.24 a barrel. Higher oil prices certainly hurt the U.S. consumer, but as long as gasoline prices do not climb rapidly the major stock indexes do not seem to react negatively.
Traders and investors can easily see that gasoline prices spiked higher in mid-July and then again on August 29, 2013. The S&P 500 Index topped out on August 2nd, 2013 and then bottomed out on August 27, 2013 when gasoline prices peaked for the second time. Once gasoline prices began to pullback the major stock indexes took their cue to move higher again.
Now it is important to see where gasoline prices are going to find support on the chart. If we look at a chart of the United States Gasoline (UGA) we will see that the UGA should have some near term daily chart support around the $57.90 level. The next important daily chart support levels for the UGA are the $53.05, and $50.00 levels. It seems that the public tracks oil by looking at the gas pump. If gasoline prices bounce higher, that is when stock indexes will usually come into selling pressure.
If you ask the average person on the street what the price of a barrel of oil is they will most likely say they do not know, but they do know what they are paying for a gallon of gasoline at the pump. Remember, the U.S. consumer accounts for roughly 70.0 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product(GDP). In order for the economy to improve the U.S. consumer must spend money, if the U.S. consumer cuts back on spending then the economy slows down again. Traders should follow the action in gasoline as it will tell us a lot about the stock market movements of the future.
We have posted new swing trade positions in the Research Center to profit from the market moves today. Get them right now and position your portfolio for profit.
Nicholas Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
