Nat Gas - Waiting for DropWatching this channel for a breakdown. Want to see above-average volume. Below 5.90 means another big push down. Watching DGAZ
UNG trade ideas
Buy UNG ranging $7.00 to $7.15all triple and double ETF's such as UGAZ and UVXY always head to zero quickly. They are only short term trades. UNG does not have major support until it gets into the $7.00 to $7.15 range. Once the UNG gets to this range, buy UGAZ, expecting a sharp bounce and able to multiple the gains 3X. This will be a quick bounce and not something you want to marry for months.
Natural Gas Weekly Long Upside weekly play looking decent here.
Long: MKT
Target: TP at 3R+
Stop: 8.15
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT THIS COMING WEEK: FOMC, FOMC, FOMCEven though I don't anticipate doing much trading this coming week running into FOMC, old habits die hard, so, as usual, I'm running through underlyings for possible premium selling setups.
With exchange traded funds, I'm looking for a rank >70 and general implied volatility >35; with individual stocks -- rank >70, implied volatility >50%.
Top Implied Volatility Rank/Implied Volatility Exchange Traded Funds
IYR 71/20
TLT 68/15
XLU 67/19
EWZ 66/38
XLF 66/22
GDX 54/47
XRT 48/21
XLI 40/16
Top Implied Volatility Rank/Implied Volatility Individuals
UNG 97/56
GM 93/31 (Earnings in 52)
GLD 58/20
CSX 85/30 (Earnings in 30)
ORCL 84/25 (Earnings in 4)
GS 82/30 (Earnings in 38)
FXE 71/11
As you can see, there isn't much there that meet my general criteria: EWZ and UNG. When I've played UNG, it is usually as a directional seasonality play, and as you can see by the chart, we've already passed the seasonal low, which historically occurs in Oct/Nov. With EWZ, I'm already in a play.
ORCL announces in four days, so that might be playable, assuming implied volatility ramps up dramatically.
All that being said, it's FOMC week, which usually militates in favor of hand sitting. My guess is that the rate hike's already priced in here, so market movement will be, if anything, "all about the talk" of how the Fed views the economy moving forward. Frankly, this can't really be known at this point. For example, some of the recent market movement in various sectors depends on speculation that a good deal of these stimulatory programs the new U.S. President is proposing come to pass. The reality is that many of these proposed programs (e.g., massive infrastructure improvement) will cost and cost big; set against a backdrop of a now majority Republican Congress that has repeatedly bemoaned the size of the US deficit, it remains to be seen whether these proposals will go anywhere, meet substantial Congressional spending concern headwinds, and have the kind of effect the market is anticipating on the time frame that the market is satisfied with.
One thing's for sure: the US government is a bureaucracy and stuff just never has a tendency to happen "overnight." The question is how patient the market will be ... .
Is Nat Gas ready to break this 8 year down trend?As of today, UNG is still in the downtrend. You should keep watching the move of the next few weeks to make the judgement.
UNG & NG swing trade set-upI plan to let this one set up, but eyeing a long entry for the heart of presumed wave 3 off the lows. Retrace may not be as deep as I've depicted. Taking out the recent high after an initial 3-wave correction could indicate the rally has begun. Higher high could also be a (b) wave in a flat, so I'd put my stop at whatever low is forming.
UNG - 4hHad a position during the heart of (iii) and let it go too soon. Gonna wait to see if wave 1 tops and we see a consolidation in cir-ii.
Cool weather will see gas retrace to pre-drop levelsSee a possible pull back to retest support then slow uptrend
I'm In! Nat Gas $UNG. See The Trade HereWhat an epic fall on natural gas lately. The commodity tracking ETF $UNG has collapsed from $9.65 to its current $7.00 in the last month. This is a whopping drop of 27%. I love collapses like this because it means there will be a big bounce. If an investor or trader can analyze the commodity chart correctly, there is huge money to be made. I did it. After analyzing the chart, natural gas is a buy here. I am in fact buying $UGAZ, a 3X Long Natural Gas ETF. This is riskier but gives you more payout on a hard bounce. Note the stock chart below to see the awesome support level being hit.
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UNG Cycle Analysis (Short-Term)UNG is potentially putting in another cycle low in this window. Note the red cycle line (cycle low time symmetry). The green cycle line depicts the cycle high window.
the state of UNGFirst, here is how I see the current uptrend unfolding.
The point of this post is to show my thought process. It's not to predict either a top or a bottom here, but merely to point out the current probabilities based on the pattern. The fact that the variations of the count on 4H have opposite implications on direction mean it's not worth risking money here at this juncture.
Looking at the daily chart, what I plan to do is to see how the next major correction (which has not started yet) unfolds. Because it can certainly continue higher, I don't want to get in front of the correction. Where and how the correction terminates, however, should help to provide more clarity in defining the nature of this uptrend.
Finding support around the prior wave 4 or the 61.8% retrace level, and with a corrective abc structure will go a long way toward a bullish outcome.
Possible end of rally from march nearing.Seems to be forming an ending diagonal in wave 5 to complete an impulsive move from March.
A good correction expected in the coming months of the rally.
UNG Short on technical resistance and bearish fundamentalsShort UNG at 8.45 with a price target of 7.30 and a stop of 9.30. There is long term lateral resistance around ~$9.00 and broadening wedge resistance at this current level. I wouldn't hesitate either to put a shallower stop on this trade. Lately much of the bull move can be attributed to weather concerns in the Gulf. As of this writing the only current TS's trajectory is into the North Atlantic and the investigation (L99) which could enter the Gulf late Sunday is currently looking weaker. In addition the reliance on Gulf natural gas production has subsided substantially in the last decade so the effect of storms on domestic production is much less than it was a decade ago when hurricanes would cause violent pops in Henry Hub natural gas prices. Lastly, as we enter the shoulder months demand for power burn should subside some and the forward futures roll yields a gain on the ETF when short as forward months are in contango going into the winter. (If you follow my 10000 USD base account recommendations I recommend shorting 300 shares of UNG)
UNG on the up. THIS IS MASSIVE!!All energy stocks are on the up with most already having bottomed. The UNG fund follows the ngas and the UNG physically cannot go any lower. This is a no Stop loss trade .
