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United States Natural Gas Fund LP

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UNG trade ideas

Closing the overgap likely to create resistance $UGAZ We seeing bullish rotation of the "point of control." Be aware of the overhead "gap" that remains as it will be an opportunity for trapped longs to exit trades with minimal losses. We will likely see longs who accumulated through Mar/Apr/May take some profits. These actions are likely to create some near term resistance. This may also result in prices dropping to confirm support and build additional market structure around $8 base before attempting higher price discovery. Good Luck!
AMEX:UNG
by jamison.gaddy
bulls attempting to absob supply $UGAZ $DGAZ $NG_FBulls are attempting absorb the supply evidence by the higher lows present. The theme remains that demand exceeds supply. Given that prices closed on support I believe a LONG entry is reasonable with a "tight stop" as shorts are buying into resistance. I believe we are seeing strong hands maintain their positions while new entries respect that they are chasing while a few shorts sneak in. I still don't feel rushed to enter carelessly into the "widow maker." My re-entries are noted below. Good Luck!
AMEX:UNG
by jamison.gaddy
Theme remains bullish but are longs buying risk here The theme remains bullish for "natty" as we rally off of support after identifying bullish absorption. We can see 3 months of ACCUMLATION here so it difficult to estimate an upside target but we can identify some anticipated levels of resistance at $8.00, $8.30 & $8.80 as well as "gaps" created during the "markdown." We saw a decrease in cumulative selling following buy our first increase in buying demand since March 2016. Again this looks bullish. Despite this great "rally" the ease at which prices continue to trade higher is contracting while volume remains pretty constant so I speculate we are seeing some profit taking here. We will like return to $7.00 and shake out weak bulls while assessing how much supply remains available to control before we sustain any more gains. The volume profile (purple area on the right) defines "value" and is showing that prices are entering a "low volume area." This could allow prices to test the $8.00 level then we can appreciate that prices are trading above "value" and likely encounter shorts and long liquidation. This process of test and retest will continue allowing rotation of the "point of control high" allowing balance to be maintained among buyer and sellers. MY OPINION: New longs are chasing and entering a trade exposed to downside risk. I would wait for an entry confirming support. Good Luck!
AMEX:UNG
by jamison.gaddy
UNG - 15mUNG is very close to signaling a breakdown. I'm already short, but one could short a break of the lower trendline, this morning's low, or the 6.29 signal level. Stops above this morning's high, wave 2, or where ever you're comfortable. Short-term target is the 5.70/.90 region. Longer timeframe targets are in the blue box, and more refined numbers will be posted IF price breaks down. Be advised, this presumed move down is nearing the end of a long-term correction. Price could respond strongly upward once the pattern completes. Longer-term traders would benefit from waiting for long entry at lower prices.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
1
UNG - 4hI've been posting the red Ending Diagonal count on UNG. This count is falling out of favor with me, mostly due to the size of minute wave i relative to wave iii. With the help of a pro Arkady Yakhnis at www.elliottwavetrader.net I've added the green count. Signal level at 6.29 retains significance, though an impulse to new lows would be expected under the green count versus a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) of v under the red count. Follow the pros and learn Fib Pinball on Avi Gilburt's site.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
UNG - 30mHadn't looked at this chart recently, but seems price hit my a=c (100%) target on the nose yesterday morning. Follow through on the pattern suggests new lows are possible in coming weeks/months. A new low could represent a major bottom as it would complete the count on a long-term correction. Could be a significant buying opportunity for long swing traders IF it develops. I've drawn it as an ending diagonal pattern - thus the (a)-(b)-(c) to complete wave v - but there's other interpretations, too.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
UNG - 15mNear-term outlook noted on chart. See previous ideas for more info. Price opened right at the bottom of support today, and I'm giving swing longs a bit of room. Continued drop would be reason to stop out imo. This drop doesn't much resemble a b-wave of (iv) with RH trading. The AH NG chart has more movement, but still not convinced. The purple I-ii, 1-2 count is barely hanging on. Need a strong bounce with follow-thru over alt (iv) to convince me it has real potential.
AMEX:UNGLong
by nick.holland78