UNG ShortNatural Gas broke falling wedge to the downside and failed to regain previous support. RSI trending down and strength in the Dollar in anticipation for June hike - short UNG.
UNG trade ideas
UNG - 30mHadn't looked at this chart recently, but seems price hit my a=c (100%) target on the nose yesterday morning. Follow through on the pattern suggests new lows are possible in coming weeks/months. A new low could represent a major bottom as it would complete the count on a long-term correction. Could be a significant buying opportunity for long swing traders IF it develops. I've drawn it as an ending diagonal pattern - thus the (a)-(b)-(c) to complete wave v - but there's other interpretations, too.
UNG - 1hAppears to be playing out with a corrective move down in the Ending Diagonal red count. Precise path might be difficult to predict, and the closer this gets to a presumed bottom the more dangerous it'll be to hold short. Ending Diagonals tend to reverse strongly back to where they began - much higher in this case.
UNG - 1hCloser view of UNG price action showing the presumed corrective decline into new lows. Wave (c) of v should be an impulse and therefore the most advantageous to trade. Over 7.48 the red bearish count will need reconsideration (again).
UNG - 4hrTook another look at the longer-term structure. Removed former green count. Shifted to an Ending Diagonal count now shown in red. Key levels remain the same on smaller timeframes. Next move down is presumed to be an (a) wave, with (b) and (c) of minute wave v to follow.
UNG - 1hrUNG has been a sideways trade recently, but my green count is now primary (again) after seeing price action these past few days. 6.29 is my new signal level (up from 6.19).
UNGNatty's bullish close above resistance offers traders well defined risk. It looks like a reasonable 1:10 risk/reward entry here with a lower volume area. The ceiling with the "value area" appears to leave plenty of room to allow prices to continue into resistance. Volume looks good; however, cumulative buying looks weak. If it remains so prices will likely retreat. Trade with a plan and take profits into resistance. Never like holding the "widow maker" long.
Good luck!
UNG - 15mBeen a trying trade. "Support" zone tested all day yesterday. Just when it seemed failure was imminent, the 78.6% retrace of wave 1 held. That was my limit for wave 2, and remains my stop on this trade. Over 8.82 we may have something going. Over 7.48 I'll be pleasantly surprised. Stalling below there (in the old (iv) zone) will have me taking profits and reconsidering the pattern.
UNG - 15mNear-term outlook noted on chart. See previous ideas for more info.
Price opened right at the bottom of support today, and I'm giving swing longs a bit of room. Continued drop would be reason to stop out imo.
This drop doesn't much resemble a b-wave of (iv) with RH trading. The AH NG chart has more movement, but still not convinced. The purple I-ii, 1-2 count is barely hanging on. Need a strong bounce with follow-thru over alt (iv) to convince me it has real potential.
UNG - 15mBack to support again. One thing is clear...this is not acting like the impulsive purple wave iii as I've outlined here. I'm highly suspicious of a complex correction in wave (iv), with new lows in coming months. Should support break sooner, the wave (iv) in green may already be complete. I remain cautiously long, but am lowering my expectations on this swing trade.
UNG - 15mSupport and resistance noted. Through 7.36 and support will move up to 6.95, the region of current price action.
UNG - 1hUNG rallied from support region noted last week, and is currently approaching an inflection region which will decide between a higher (iv) bounce and "THE LOW" purple impulsive count. Over 7.48, wave (iv) is highly unlikely. Smaller degree support an resistance to be updated on smaller-time frame charts.
(1H) Bullish Bat and Eventual Double Top // IF=THEN ® AMEX:UNG
Eventual Bullish Bat pattern - it can act as trend continuation, or as trend change;
Safe Trades;
UNG - 1hrAbove my green box, the wave (iv) - (v) possibility to new lows would be highly questionable. Note the 50% retrace of wave (ii) - (iii) which is generally the maximum extent of a 4th wave retrace. Alt (iv) is however below the 76.4% extension of waves (i) - (ii) and thus would be valid.
One thing is certain, there's no Ending Diagonal playing out off the mid-March (iv) high.
UNG - 30mUNG has broken out over the 6.65 signal level. I'm out of shorts. Will watch for higher confidence entry on a new position. The prior bullish alternative path may be playing out, although the pattern is not yet mature enough to trade with high probability imo. Should price reach the 6.95 region (as indicated in wave i), then a long entry from this price region on a retrace could be traded long with stops in the 6.49/.29 range.
UNG - 1hPrice remains between signal levels which remain unchanged. Over 6.65 indicates possibility of something bullish - possibly the start of a motive wave off the lows. Below 6.16 then bearish potential for new lows.
While I remain short, a portion of my position stopped out earlier today. Decline off recent highs has not developed in a clearly impulsive fashion, and bullish potential must be acknowledged, especially if 6.65 signal level gives way. Note positive divergence on MACD. Bullish potential shown in pink.
Chart in log scale.
UNG - 30minNeed UNG price to turn back down in wave iii, breaking below pink alt ii support. I'd expect Stoch RSI to embed as indicated. MACD needs to hold below the broken UTL, though this isn't mandatory.
UNG - 30 minFolks, this short is NOT a CERTAINTY, but the R/R is there IF you use stops in the 6.69 / 6.82 region.
I've also labeled a possible Leading Diagonal in pink. IF price goes over 6.82 to new local highs, THEN probability shifts in favor of a more meaningful bottom, though not necessarily THE BOTTOM...
CAPITAL PRESERVATION is PARAMOUNT
UNG - DailyUpdating the bigger picture. Presumed wave (iv) came right to the 38.2 retrace target (shown on smaller timeframes) and reversed. This rhymes with the pervious minute circle wave iv of a larger degree. However, note that this decline is nearing its long-term completion on positive divergence. Such divergence can persist thru wave (v) of v on new price lows.
Beginning of this decline in Aug/Sep '15 was difficult to count, and wave (ii) was a complex w-x-y-x-z. Larger-degree fibs are difficult to measure, and UNG's decay further complicates the measurements.
Bottom line: DO NOT risk too much here, and DO NOT overstay your welcome if you're still in this short. I anticipate the reversal could be sharp, once decline completes.
UNG - 15minI had wanted a bit higher into resistance to remove my long hedge and add to shorts, but if price breaks down thru signal levels indicated, then that brief touch of resistance this morning may be all she's got...
UNG - 30 minI'm already short, and plan on removing hedges on any retrace. The resistance box, as noted, is a candidate entry for new shorts, especially if a bounce into this resistance region is in 3-waves. Over 6.82, don't get caught holding short. Below 6.16, you've missed your chance at high-risk short entries, but the R/R may be in your favor for a late entry with better-defined stops.
UNG - 1hrUNG has turned down through micro support after completing a possible 3-wave move into resistance. As long as price stays below 6.82, and below the prior high, I'm expecting 5.23 or lower. Possibly much lower, but only a confirmed decline and its form will determine high-probability targets.
