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United States Natural Gas Fund LP

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UNG trade ideas

UNG - 1 hrHate to alter my bullish count, but if UNG gets over 6.82, followed by the 7.14/.18 area, then natural gas can be postured more bullishly than I allowed earlier. The bearish count is no where near dead, and remains my primary expectation, however those long in March have done quite well. MACD still retains negative divergence, and price may turn lower below the regions indicated. Don't hang around too long expecting higher, especially if support begins to break down. See 6.17/.20 region.
AMEX:UNGLong
by nick.holland78
UNG - 1 hrApproaching inflection point on UNG near confluence of 1.00 fib extension of waves (i)-(ii) and 38.2 retrace measured from waves (ii)-(iii). Anticipating decline in wave (v), though corrective decline into alt wave (ii) - shown in blue - would suggest the possibility that a significant low was seen at 5.79. Took profits on BOIL. Only remaining shares were bought very near the v of (iii) lows. I have some DGAZ purchased on 3/11. May add more today. So, I'm barely net long with 2x leverage, while hedged with 3x leverage. Will be net short if I add DGAZ.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
UNG - 1hrWave (iii) likely completed. Bounce off 161.8% region suggests resistance for wave (iv) could be visited this week. Over UNG 7.20 in an impulsive fashion suggests wave circle v is complete already at the recent low. However, base case is that resistance will turn price down to the low 5.00 region, with possible washout near 4.00. Wave (iv) is technically valid until the wave (i) low in mid-7s is taken out, although an impulsive structure forming lower would be a bullish indication. Long positions are aggressive. Better to be cautious; wait for 5 waves up followed by a 3 wave correction. A bullish pattern would only be confirmed on taking out the presumed 5-wave high, should one occur. New shorts should wait for wave (iv) resistance.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
4
UNG - 2hr (revised)Bottom of my target box was tested today with 6.47 low. Should 6.47/.38 fail, then I'd expect 5.89 to be tested. Positive divergence still holding on MACD. Original purple ED count was invalidated 2 days ago. I've revised it here in order to demonstrate that a rally should not necessarily be viewed as a long opportunity - not as a trading suggestion. Resistance at 7.24/.48. Blue (cyan) triangle count adjusted primarily based on NG futures holding above December low. UNG decay has clearly broken below its 6.91 December low. Initial indications of a potential bottom would come only with an impulsive 5-wave move higher - breaking above overhead resistance - followed by a 3-wave pullback holding above 50%-61.8% retrace support.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
UNG - DailyUNG posted new lows for the week. Positive divergence on MACD is still holding. Bullish alternative: Lower trend line of presumed ending diagonal was exceeded. Possible today's fall was an overshoot. Probability this will be a lasting low in natural gas can only be confirmed by an impulsive rally with 5 waves up, and 3 back down holding the coming low. Bearish alternatives: The cyan (blue) triangle remains valid, especially considering February's low is holding over the NG continuous contract low from December. Bounce should not exceed 9.27 in this count. A corrective rally over 9.27 would indicate the yellow alternative with another lower low to follow into the Spring.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
UNG -- COVERED CALL IDEATruth be told, I was burned somewhat by UNG this year, as I was expecting a seasonality bounce which has not come due to mild temperatures associated with El Nino. Moreover, in 20-20 hindsight, a debit spread was probably not the way to go due to inflexibility of the setup if you are just totally directionally wrong or if your timing as to the directionality is off. In any event, and although volatility in the underlying has diminished somewhat since the making of a significant low around 7.00, there remains sufficient volatility in UNG to go covered call here. The setup: 100 Shares UNG at 7.69 1 Feb 19 8 Short Call Entire Package: 6.91 debit (meaning your break even for the setup is $6.91/share, excluding fees commissions) Max Profit: $109 (if called away at $8) Tips: Look to take off the entire setup in profit before expiry if profit approaches what you would get if called away. Roll out the short call to a later expiry if it is nearing worthless; look to roll to a strike that at least exceeds your cost basis in the underlying.
AMEX:UNGLong
by NaughtyPines