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United States Natural Gas Fund LPUnited States Natural Gas Fund LPUnited States Natural Gas Fund LP

United States Natural Gas Fund LP

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UNG trade ideas

UNG - 1hPrice remains between signal levels which remain unchanged. Over 6.65 indicates possibility of something bullish - possibly the start of a motive wave off the lows. Below 6.16 then bearish potential for new lows. While I remain short, a portion of my position stopped out earlier today. Decline off recent highs has not developed in a clearly impulsive fashion, and bullish potential must be acknowledged, especially if 6.65 signal level gives way. Note positive divergence on MACD. Bullish potential shown in pink. Chart in log scale.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
UNG - DailyUpdating the bigger picture. Presumed wave (iv) came right to the 38.2 retrace target (shown on smaller timeframes) and reversed. This rhymes with the pervious minute circle wave iv of a larger degree. However, note that this decline is nearing its long-term completion on positive divergence. Such divergence can persist thru wave (v) of v on new price lows. Beginning of this decline in Aug/Sep '15 was difficult to count, and wave (ii) was a complex w-x-y-x-z. Larger-degree fibs are difficult to measure, and UNG's decay further complicates the measurements. Bottom line: DO NOT risk too much here, and DO NOT overstay your welcome if you're still in this short. I anticipate the reversal could be sharp, once decline completes.
AMEX:UNGShort
by nick.holland78
UNG - 1 hrHate to alter my bullish count, but if UNG gets over 6.82, followed by the 7.14/.18 area, then natural gas can be postured more bullishly than I allowed earlier. The bearish count is no where near dead, and remains my primary expectation, however those long in March have done quite well. MACD still retains negative divergence, and price may turn lower below the regions indicated. Don't hang around too long expecting higher, especially if support begins to break down. See 6.17/.20 region.
AMEX:UNGLong
by nick.holland78
UNG - 1 hrApproaching inflection point on UNG near confluence of 1.00 fib extension of waves (i)-(ii) and 38.2 retrace measured from waves (ii)-(iii). Anticipating decline in wave (v), though corrective decline into alt wave (ii) - shown in blue - would suggest the possibility that a significant low was seen at 5.79. Took profits on BOIL. Only remaining shares were bought very near the v of (iii) lows. I have some DGAZ purchased on 3/11. May add more today. So, I'm barely net long with 2x leverage, while hedged with 3x leverage. Will be net short if I add DGAZ.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
UNG - 1hrWave (iii) likely completed. Bounce off 161.8% region suggests resistance for wave (iv) could be visited this week. Over UNG 7.20 in an impulsive fashion suggests wave circle v is complete already at the recent low. However, base case is that resistance will turn price down to the low 5.00 region, with possible washout near 4.00. Wave (iv) is technically valid until the wave (i) low in mid-7s is taken out, although an impulsive structure forming lower would be a bullish indication. Long positions are aggressive. Better to be cautious; wait for 5 waves up followed by a 3 wave correction. A bullish pattern would only be confirmed on taking out the presumed 5-wave high, should one occur. New shorts should wait for wave (iv) resistance.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78
4
UNG - 2hr (revised)Bottom of my target box was tested today with 6.47 low. Should 6.47/.38 fail, then I'd expect 5.89 to be tested. Positive divergence still holding on MACD. Original purple ED count was invalidated 2 days ago. I've revised it here in order to demonstrate that a rally should not necessarily be viewed as a long opportunity - not as a trading suggestion. Resistance at 7.24/.48. Blue (cyan) triangle count adjusted primarily based on NG futures holding above December low. UNG decay has clearly broken below its 6.91 December low. Initial indications of a potential bottom would come only with an impulsive 5-wave move higher - breaking above overhead resistance - followed by a 3-wave pullback holding above 50%-61.8% retrace support.
AMEX:UNG
by nick.holland78