UNG trade ideas
Squeeze Short in a downtrendUNG retraced to the 78.6% Fibonacci level before consolidating into a squeeze.
1. Solid orange compressed squeeze
2. Still has negative momentum.
3. No propulsion dots requires a more conservative entry.
4. Vprofile levels offer entry levels and resistance.
5. 18 Feb 22 13 Put Entries ($12.80, $13.20, $13.80)
6. Profit Target #1 @ 12.05.
7. Stop Loss is 25% of the option price.
Well this interesting...Certain geopolitical events, rising prices in Europe and cold snaps across North America seem to be pushing Natural Gas higher. It's broken a key overhead resistance but upside will be limited. You can see some of the previous support lines which do correspond rather nicely with the last move downwards. This is strictly a short-term play unless other resistances and a falling dollar pickup pace.
Closed: UNG January 21st 14C/17P Inverted Short Strangle... for a 4.86 debit.
Comments: I collected a total of 5.44 in credits for this setup. (See Post Below). It started out as a 17 short straddle, after which I rolled the 17 short call down defensively to cut net delta, resulting in an inverted strangle (i.e., short call below the short put). Closed it out here for a small winner on this up move; 5.44 - 4.86 = .58 ($58).
UNG (Natural Gas ETF) - 2021 - Support, Resistance, TrendlinesUNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) - 2021 - Support, Resistance, Trendlines:
-Resistance Price Levels (colored horizontal lines above current price)
-Support Price Levels (colored horizontal lines below current price)
-Trendline Resistances (diagonal grey lines above current price)
-Trendline Supports (diagonal grey lines below current price)
note: chart is on log scale.
Rolling: UNG January 21st 17 Short Call to 14 Short Call... for a .42/contract credit.
Comments: Rolling down the short call of my UNG straddle to reduce net delta directionality and improve my break evens. The resulting setup is a 3-wide inverted 14C/17P for which I've collected a total of 5.44 in credits -- 5.02 for the original short straddle (See Post Below) -- plus an additional .42 here. This also cuts net delta about in half, with the 17 short put clocking in at around 79 delta and the 14 short call around -39. The setup remains net delta long (40.81), leaving room for a potential bounce should that occur. A "perfect finish" for an inverted setup is basically the mid point between the inverted strikes -- in this case, 15.50. I will probably money/take/run if the opportunity presents itself, since there is seasonality with UNG, and I'd rather not roll this out for duration as I would with just about everything else since seasonality favors lower post-winter.
My original price target was a 3.76 debit to close (25% of max profit), so I'm revising that to 3.76 plus .42 or 4.18.
UNG 2022UNG is approaching channel bottom / support level for the next leg up.
That is assuming it does not break down through the support .. which woould seem unlikely considering the sorry state of the world ..
UNG - Head and Shoulders - Target 13.25, 12.25 UNG formed a Head and Should pattern in the daily chart and recently broke down the neck line. It's looking bearish and would test the 200 DMA around 13.25 and would test 12.25 in next 2-3 months.
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Opening (Margin): UNG January 21st 17 Short Straddle... for a 5.02 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV here. I looked at various ways to get around the awful call side skew and decided to just short straddle it. Break evens at 11.98 and 22.02 with delta/theta at -16.85/4.32. Will look to take profit at 25% max.
I'm indicating that it's "short" because of the net delta metric, but it can wander around anywhere between 11.98 and 22.02 and still be profitable.
UNGNatural gas usually declines around this time of the year. This year looks like it could be different. UNG looks like it could make another run if this flag breaks out to the upside.
NEW POSITION $UNG looking for 19.34 fro 16.78% (NatGas)NEW POSITION $UNG looking for 19.34 fro 16.78%
Started a 1% position here… Looking to either sell at 19.34
Or Double my position at 14.50
Let’s go, NatGas traders…
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
(\_/)
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UNG swing for NOV 19Swinging the NOV19 $18c. Should produce a nice r/r if the pattern plays out. Looks promising right now.
$UNG - Key Levels and Analysis$UNG - Key Levels and Analysis
Would love to get one more good natty swing…
Sell target 21.28
Or
Double target 15.72
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your due diligence.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
LONG $UNG target 25-27Natural gas broke new 52 week high. There's an ongoing energy crisis across Europe and the USA. Weekly time frame is a double bottom.
4 Neutral Trades $IWM $UNG $CTRA $IFRMIn these we have Strangles and Iron Condors setup so we're monitoring to make sure these stay in the middle of the range. If they breach, we can adjust. All of these trades expire Nov 19th.
$UNG $IWM $CTRA $IFRM
IMO Good place to take longs in UNGWe finally came back down to a slightly lower bottom since the sell signal from the 10-05-21 top Great support here and tested this bottom on the 15 min chart.
I'm in @ 18.80
My JB 8OC WEEKLY on UNG Nat Gas ETFThank you to those who have responded so kindly and favorably to my postings on the JB 80C indicator that I developed (quite some time ago). The JB 8OC indicator is based on a simple but powerful concept. Specifically, in bull markets no matter what the timeframe, closing prices of a given time bar tend to be higher than opening prices. In a bear market closing prices tend to be lower than opening prices. It's a simple supply and demand relationship. The JB 8OC algorithm takes this relationship into consideration, constructing an indicator to assess the relationship mathematically and visually. As in the case of many indicators, and in fact most indicators, there will be some choppiness but we can eliminate much of that choppiness by adding to the methodology a trigger which will filter out a good percentage of erratic trades. I will show a trigger in later posts if people have an interest in them. If so let me know. Now with regard to timeframe I realize that most traders want to trade very short-term time frames and I have no issue with that but my days of ultra short-term trading are over. I would rather work smart and take my time for bigger moves than work hard for smaller moves. Of course, it's a personal preference. The good news about this indicator is that it's adaptable to all time frames but remember- the bigger the timeframe the more stable the result. Best of trading. Jake RBT (rules based trader)
UNG looking more like a cryptoNatty gas has been the gift that keeps on giving. Yet another leg up on the daily has formed. This is a moon shot in gas terms.
UNG Reversal Down V. SoonThis is an intuitive hit that I received in meditation this morning. The idea is UNG will reverse back down. I'm not sure if the high is today or it could be Monday. I tend to think it's monday as we're going out strong here at the end of the day.
The .618 is at 18.46. In that area to $19.00 seems like a good area to watch for a reversal. I dowse on this and get the "breakdown" option. This was confirmed with other inquiries. So, we'll see.
UNGNatural Gas looks like it's coming out of a multi-year bear market.
Upside Potential is HUGE!!
Energy seems to be an attractive trade next couple of years IMO.
Keeping an eye on Natural Gas and Uranium as the world explores alternative renewable energy resources
Happy Trading :)
Natural Gas - A Strong Move Boosts Our ETF IdeaSo far this year, we have published two ideas on Natural Gas. One on the long side (via the UNG ETF) and one on the short side directly via the commodity.
UNG ETF on 14 May: This idea has appreciated via 35% and 44% from confirmation and publication respectively, with the full target of $14.60 being reached last week Thursday. The original idea via my research report has been inserted on the chart.
NG: A counter-trend short/sell on 12 August at $4.00. We traded lower, down to to 3.73 (a 'short' move of -6.75%). As noted via my research, a trailing stop was applicable.
So far the NatGas has continue to advance, with the medium term setup prevailing vs the short term setup.
What to know what's next for the commodity or which other ETF is setting up as a buy? Get in touch today.
Natural Gas Made a Strong Bounce Today (UNG)Exactly what I was hoping for if you referred to my previous post. We've had a strong bounce off of support after our smaller retracement and I expect this to go up to about $15.64 (ish) and from there I can only guess a strong retracement (based on storage volumes etc, but we'll see).
