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URA trade ideas

Uranium and the sentiment cycleOnce you work with Justin Mamis' sentiment cycle you start to see it everywhere. s3.tradingview.com AMEX:URA and uranium stocks have done very well after breaking out of a long consolidation. This perspective looks at a potential scenario for the sentiment cycle with Fibonacci confluence zones and volume weighted average prices anchored to key areas. AVWAPs anchored to the 5/31 breakout, sentiment shift in early October, and early November align to areas that we would look for a subtle and overt warning, and a shift from disbelief to panic. Should this result in a further drawdown we will likely see 24.5-26 act as support before a recovery. In a more violent sell off we'll look for 21.10-21.80 to hold. The next overhead resistance should begin between 32.60-35.39.
AMEX:URAShort
by Ben_1148x2
2
Investing into Uranium-Backed Producers. Technical perspectivesUranium ore trades is at records highs, as several hedge fund managers are expanding their allocations to uranium stocks, with a conviction that an increasing embrace of nuclear energy as part of a "green" future - along with geopolitically-rooted ambitions to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas -- means the trend has a lot of room to run. On Wednesday, November 1, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in uranium-rich Kazakhstan on the first leg of a trip to Central Asia. According to a study by the World Nuclear Association (WNA,) published in August this year, Kazakhstan possesses 12 percent of the world's uranium resources and in 2021 produced about 21,800 tons. In 2009 it became the world's leading uranium producer, with almost 28 percent of world production. In 2019, the country produced a staggering 43 percent of the world's uranium. A dozen years after the disaster at Japan's Fukashima reactor put nuclear energy on worldwide probation -- and in, Germany, gave it a death sentence -- various factors are combining to bring it back into the acceptable realm of energy solutions. UXC URANIUM U3O8 Futures Price, over the past 5 years. First reason, the International Energy Agency says that, in order to meet "net zero" goals -- which describes a state where carbon emitted into the atmosphere matches the amount removed from it - global nuclear generation capacity must double from 2020 levels by 2050. In addition to nuclear energy coming to the fore as a zero-carbon-emitting power source, it's also seen as a way for the western economies to reduce their need for Russian oil and gas. The fact that Russia currently accounts for about 8% of the world's uranium reserves underscores the need to develop new supply sources. There's also an increasing appetite for nuclear power in Asia and Africa. Taken together, the uranium-friendly trends could power significant gains in the sector. Uranium equities could see dramatic upside -- 50%, 100%, possibly MultiX more. The main graph represents technical perspectives for AMEX:URA - The Global X Uranium ETF that provides investors access to a broad range of companies involved in uranium mining and the production of nuclear components, including those in extraction, refining, exploration, or manufacturing of equipment for the uranium and nuclear industries. The Global X Uranium ETF is 35.66% year-to-date return in this time, that is much stronger against top 4 American well-known indices i.e. S&P500 Index SP:SPX (11.95% YTD), Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX (35.22% YTD), Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT (-3.38% YTD) , and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJ:DJI (1.94% YTD). Top 5 Holdings of AMEX:URA - The Global X Uranium ETF (as of November 1, 2023) # Weight Name 1. 23.80% TSX:CCO - CAMECO CORP 2. 11.25% TSX:U.U - SPROTT PHYSICAL 3. 6.77% LSIN:KAP - NAC KAZATOMPROM-DR 4. 6.45% NYSE:NXE - NEXGEN ENERGY LTD 5. 5.41% AMEX:UEC - URANIUM ENERGY CORP 👉 The main graph says, there're alternative technical perspectives for AMEX:URA - The Global X Uranium ETF in this time, where the major break out of multi year highs can open the door to further huge, MultiX upside price action under well-knoww Technical figure "Cup-and-Handle". 👉 Vice versa, if resistance is still strong, it can bring the graph to its main 5yrs SMA support.
AMEX:URA
by Pandorra
Uranium Bull Market has not even begun.....Buying opportunity of a lifetime in my humble opinion. Uranium equities are likely to outperform the commodity by at least 2.5x, and probably relatively quickly. I also fully expect spot prices to continue upward over 2024 and beyond. Potential near term fundamental catalysts: 1. Major producers Cameco and Kazatomprom likely to miss production goals for 2024 and 2025. Will have clarity on both these in coming weeks. 2. Russian Uranium ban. House has passed HR1042 already, senate is dragging their feet because Ted Cruz is a douche nozzle. Will almost certainly pass eventually. Not that big of a deal on it's own, but Putin might retaliate by banning uranium exports to the west, which would be a big deal. 3. Sentiment is nowhere near "euphoric" yet. Media attention phase is just beginning. 4. Huge supply/demand imbalance. Most cannot comprehend how out of whack this tiny market is. Price of physical uranium was dirt cheap for a decade following Fukushima, that is over. Huge supply deficits in coming years and no meaningful added supply to come online for 3 years, MINIMUM. It sounds ridiculous, but $200/lb spot uranium by the end of 2024 is not unreasonable at all. Utilities will pay any price because it is such a small part of their total operating costs. It is far more expensive to shut down a nuclear plant and restart it later than to bite the bullet and buy uranium at any price. Cheers!
AMEX:URALong
by bbruzzese1
1
Uranium future projection The race to reduce carbon emissions by 2050 is on. Uranium being one of the top runner up and The biggest in capacity holding of energy holds my number one spot in this new energy transition and I will show you why below. AMEX:URA current environment 1.Market Response to Production Shortfall - The news of Kazatomprom potentially cutting its 2024 production plan due to sourcing issues with sulfuric acid has led to a significant reaction from the market. Shares of uranium companies have seen a sharp increase as investors anticipate a tighter supply, which could drive up uranium prices. The immediate price jump is a direct reflection of the market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions, especially from a major producer like Kazakhstan. 2. Impact on Uranium Prices: - Uranium prices have reached their highest since the end of 2007, indicating a robust bullish sentiment in the market. This price movement aligns with the fundamental analysis where supply constraints act as a significant driver for price increases. The $97/lbs price point could serve as a new resistance level, and if prices remain above this threshold, it could signal a continued bullish trend. 3. Performance of URA and Other ETFs: - The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) climbing by 5.3% is a strong indicator that the ETF is benefiting from the current market dynamics. The rise of URA, along with other ETFs like the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF, shows that the bullish sentiment is widespread across the sector. This positive movement in ETFs also reflects broader investor confidence in the uranium market's growth potential, amidst the current production and geopolitical concerns. *Driver of uranium price in a macro perspective* 1. Technical Chart: a "cup and handle," which is typically considered a bullish continuation pattern. This pattern is characterized by a gradual decline followed by a rise that mirrors the prior decline, forming a "cup," and then a smaller pullback before a breakout, forming the "handle." For URA, the pattern suggests that after a period of consolidation and pullback, there could be a potential upward breakout. The validity of this pattern would be further reinforced if it occurs with an accompanying increase in volume, which would indicate strong buying interest. Which is the case for ura on the 1 month chart Volume: the volume on uranium has seen a significant increase which is visible on the chart. In September 29 2020 the average 30 day volume was 151,333.2 now fast forward todays day January 12, 2024 uranium is trading at an average 30 day volume of 2.85 million! Price Which is also near resistance level is just peaking above it currently looking like it wants to push higher given the significant Volume increase. 2. Fundamental Drivers: - URA's performance is closely tied to the demand and supply dynamics of uranium. The push for clean energy and the need to reduce carbon emissions are driving countries to consider nuclear energy as a viable option. This could lead to an increased demand for uranium. Moreover, supply constraints, possibly due to geopolitical tensions in uranium-rich regions or production cuts like those potentially by Kazatomprom, can create a supply-side squeeze, leading to higher uranium prices, which would benefit URA. 3. Geopolitical Landscape The geopolitical tensions, particularly those affecting countries like Kazakhstan which is a major uranium producer, can significantly impact uranium availability and prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict also adds to the complexity, as it could lead to sanctions or disruptions that affect the global uranium market. Additionally, if European countries, in seeking to alleviate energy crunches, pivot more towards nuclear energy, that could further increase demand for uranium, benefiting URA in the process. Outlook: uranium looks very bullish BofA Global Research forecasts that spot uranium prices will reach $105 a pound this year and $115 a pound in 2025. Just how high prices can get depends in part on how quickly countries wean off Russian supplies. Demand for uranium for nuclear plants is expected to rise to 83,840 tonnes by 2030 and 130,000 tonnes by 2040, from 65,650 this year, it said. The spot price of uranium has more than doubled over the past three years, but is well down from a peak of $140 a pound touched in 2007. *Deeper analysis on URA* 1. Nuclear Energy's Reliability and Capacity Factor: nuclear energy's high capacity factor, which measures the reliability of an energy source by comparing its actual output with its potential output. With a capacity factor of 92.5%, nuclear energy is presented as the most reliable energy source when compared to others like natural gas, coal, wind, and solar. This reliability is crucial for meeting base-load energy demands consistently, which is an advantage for countries aiming to reduce carbon emissions without compromising on energy availability. 2. Nuclear Energy in Carbon Emission Reduction: - The fact that nuclear power produces zero carbon emissions during operation positions it as a clean energy source, especially important as countries race to meet emission reduction targets by 2030 and beyond. This bolsters the argument that demand for uranium, as a fuel for nuclear power plants, is likely to increase as part of global decarbonization efforts. 3. Nuclear Energy's Role in the Energy Transition: - With the information on nuclear energy's big wins in 2023 and the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, there is a clear indication that nuclear energy is gaining momentum. This trend can serve as a foundational driver for increased uranium demand, reinforcing the bullish outlook for uranium investments such as $URA.
AMEX:URALong
by jordanomartinez27
1