Divergence between, manufacturing growth and Commodity index How long until commodities return to correlation with real growth? Demand destruction from inflation will eventually catch up to commodities and we should see a massive pullback.
USCI trade ideas
Nailed the top. Now we dip.
First impulse off the bottom was well underway before the big news.
Now that everyone is piling in it's time to look the other way for a while as we figure what covid will look like this summer.
My guess is that the first dead bounce on equities and tech will be astounding, following a small rate hike, then growth will continue to slow.
The next impulse may begin late summer, coming into winter as supply problems in Europe become really apparent.
Then maybe we are back in the 1970s, but this time is it silver or alts that appear the shiniest?
OIL to dominate in 2022 H1 I believe that oil will dominate the commodities sector in 2022 first half, despite a strong dollar, pushing the commodity index to 2014 bear market breakdown levels. Strong dollar in latter 2022 will crush this trade for anyone holding on too tightly.
Then we won't know what the hell we're going to do. Although I suspect commodities could resume for a ripping trade once/if dollar bubble pops.
Resistance alert for CommodityCommodity index is reluctant to pierce the aforesaid 37 (R1) level coincides with 200w SMA indicates the index will take a breather to neutralize its prolonged overbought condition as seen on RSI. The index could make a return move to support level at S1 or further to S2 before it could introduce a change in trend to Bullish, if it could travel above R1. The pattern and movement of the index coincide with the Brent Oil and FCPO on our earlier analysis.
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10-yr market cycle for FX, commodities, value, & global stocks?The US dollar tends to trade in a ten-year cycle relative to global currencies. It outperforms for ten years, then underperforms for ten years, then outperforms, and so on. This year we seem to have ended a cycle of outperformance when the US dollar broke its ten-year trend line (orange line on the chart).
The dollar is inversely correlated to all sorts of other things, including alternative currencies (including Bitcoin), commodities (including metals), global equities (developed, emerging, and frontier markets), and perhaps the value/growth ratio (mostly because value companies like energy majors and miners benefit from strong commodities prices). That means that the ten-year dollar cycle also tends to create ten-year cycles in these other markets.
The downward dollar breakout has already led to an upward breakout in the ratios of global and emerging markets equities to US equities (purple and green lines on the chart). A recent survey of investment managers showed that they believe emerging markets will be the best performer over the next ten years. Commodities also rank highly in those investment manager surveys, and we are nearing a trend line break for commodities (red line on the chart). The value/growth ratio (black line on the chart) has been showing a little life as well, and it's possible that we will also head toward a trend line break in that ratio.
uscinice balance fund. Look up the holdings. Not heavy weighted in oil like others. Holds nickel,tin,zinc, wheat, sugar,pigs,cows...gold each roughly 7%. Good for the long term buy and hold portfolio
Commodity Markets can be Strengthened !I expect an increase in the USCI (US Commodity Index Fund) Index.
This could be a forerunner of the rise of commodity-based Stocks and Commodities.
It would be more accurate to turn to single commodities and stocks rather than this fund.
We'il talk about going from general to private later.
Nevertheless, let's write down the parameters that make this idea less risky:
Position Size : Small amount of Portfolio
Risk/Reward Ratio : 1/2.4
Stop-Loss : 35.48
Goal : 38.78
Recent status on my Commodity-related Terminals (Duration : Autonomous LSTM Adaptive Period):
-General :
-Futures :
Recent status Commodity-related Terminals ( Duration : 14 weeks ) :
- General :
- Futures :
Regards.
Commodities LongR azor-Focus-Situational-Awareness
E xtrapolate Out the BullShit
A ssess the Environment We are In
D igress for a Most/Better Strategy
