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United States Oil Fund

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USO trade ideas

Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 65 Covered Call... for a 62.41 break even. Comments: High IVR/IV (79/51) plus weakness. Adding a rung to my USO position out in December at break evens better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.41 Max Profit: 2.59 ROC at Max: 4.15% 50% Max: 1.30 ROC at 50% Max: 2.07% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; look to roll out the short call on test.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opened (IRA): USO Dec 20th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.26 debit. Comments: (Late Post). High IV (67.7% as of Tuesday close) + weakness. Added a "rung" to my existing position at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.26 Max Profit: 1.74 ROC at Max: 2.84% 50% Max: .87 ROC at 50% Max: 1.42% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call on test of take profit. Here, the 50% max take profit would be .87 + 61.26 or 62.13.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.48 debit. Comments: Back into the slippery stuff with /CL trading at 70.48. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. My basic approach here is to dink and donk on the underlying when /CL is at $70/bbl. or below. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 66.48 Max Profit: 1.52 ROC at Max: 2.29% 50% Max: .76 ROC at 50% Max: 1.15% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on take profit test. I'll also look to add "rungs" should I be able to do so at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 69 Monied Covered Call... for a 67.44 debit. Comments: This isn't as low as I wanted to get in, but the short call is below where I would've entered would have to have been more patient and waited for 70. In any event, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.44/share Max Profit: 1.56 ($156) ROC at Max: 2.31% ROC at 50% Max: .78 ($78) ROC at 50% Max: 1.16% Take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call to maintain net delta <30.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 67 Covered Call... for a 65.26 debit. Comments: Adding a rung at strike prices better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.26 Max Profit: 1.74 ($174) ROC at Max: 2.67% 50% Max: .87 ROC at 50% Max: 1.33% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out the short call on side test.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Trend Channel Chart Projects Higher Prices for USO & WTIUUSO & WTIU Here's an interesting and unusual long view projection of USO on a weekly Trend Channel Chart with Fib levels. I like this set up here & this construct of the weekly chart. I feel like it clearly shows the trends within the longer wave cycle and creates defined price levels for a trade - So looking at the chart I see a clear zone up to the previous highs. I can place a stop close by in the low 70's with a price target for the next leg up at 96-ish.. with a time frame of around 10-ish weeks.
AMEX:USOLong
by hangonstaycalm
Opening (IRA): USO Nov 15th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.27 debit. Comments: Adding to my USO position at strikes better than what I currently have on (the Nov 15th 67's and the Dec 20th 69's). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.27/share Max Profit: 1.73 ($173) ROC at Max: 2.82% 50% Max: .87 ($87) ROC at 50% Max: 1.41% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on side test.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets. Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO). However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand. Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption. The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
AMEX:USOLong
by signalmastermind
USO to $75MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading system is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom channel Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level TTM Squeeze just turned on (green dot up there) TTM Squeeze momentum is spiked down In at $70.09, out at $75 or when price hits upper channel, whichever comes first
AMEX:USOLong
by chancethepug
USO another long idea to $79.83The last idea on this was a total winner, so I'm gonna keep at it... I'm getting that it's time to buy it again, but less of a run than last time as the target is just a slightly higher high. This is all based on my dowsing work btw. The drop this morning should reverse, but may want to fill the gap at 73.39. I have a time of day at 1:40-50. IDK if it'll be the low, or is something else, but it's fun to watch. Regardless, it's likely more up than down from here. I also keep getting there's news coming & that's in almost every stock I ask about. It said for USO the news sends it up.
AMEX:USOLong
by JenRz
Timing & dowsing pick USO longI'm getting via my dowsing work to watch for a spike down and reversal up. I still have a target from a reading last week or so around $69-70 and tomorrow is a calendar date. Often these dates warn of a kind of reversal. I got 9.8 as a percentage up from current levels, but I'd be aware of where 9.8% up lands from whatever low is made just in case it's off. This all could potentially occur this week because I got the answer that the high is "for the week", but I wouldn't rely on this at all. Just noting it for journaling.
AMEX:USOLong
by JenRz
Finally time for bullish oil? $USO to $120 then $300+People have been calling for the oil bull market to begin for the past two years and the trade largely hasn't worked as we've gone sideways to down. However, based on the chart, it looks like we're finally ready for a run. This would also line up with my bearish equity thesis. Oil looks to have broken out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and althought it's a diagonal pattern which are less reliable, the indicators that I have seem to support the narrative. I think there's a possibility that we could see a 4x move over the next year or so. Let's see how it plays out.
AMEX:USOLong
by benjihyam
10
Oil will fall signaling a recession and bonds will soar!Oil lost the monthly trendline, back-tested it twice now and is ready for the fall. 200ma is flat which means a decisive movement is coming. If oil falls, so will yields - signaling deflation which'll cause the FED to cut rates before the election. Check out my NASDAQ:TLT thread, I think you could buy OTM calls with that right now, or on AMEX:TMF for August-September and make a killing. If you're in oil, it wouldn't hurt to hedge right now. AFTER rates are cut, and the dollar starts going towards 97 THEN oil will blast-off with the second leg of inflation.. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
AMEX:USOShort
by EmptyEternity
2
USO Oil ShortUSO on the 60 minute chart is currently in a broadening wedge and reflecting down off a reversal at the upper resistance trend line. The MACD lines have crossed over the histogram and are trending down showing moving average convergence. Price is between the mean and first upper band lines and moving down toward the former. Current factors at play include an OPEC+ meeting, Russia working around sanctions, increased demand of the summer driving season, federal rate action projections as well as those in Europe and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. I will short USO here targeting 74 at the bottom of the wedge pattern.
AMEX:USOShort
by AwesomeAvani
Opening (IRA): USO July 19th 67 Monied Covered Call... for a 65.60 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense and to take advantage of slightly elevated IV on the call side relative to the put. Would like 30-day IV to be higher here, but can't have everything (it's at 31.2%). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 65.60 Max Profit: 1.40 ($140) ROC at Max: 2.13%/16.90% annualized ROC at 50% Max: 1.07%/8.45% annualized Will generally look to take profit at 50% max ... .
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
USO - Oil Prices are Rising LONGUSO follows the futures prices of oil barrels. On this 30 minute chart, price falls have been rejected by the POC line of the volume profile and the Lux Algo Donchian channel has transitioned from downgoing to trending up. The dual TF RSI of Chris Moody now shows RSI holding above 50 in both the 15 min and 60 min TFs. Net distribution has bottomed out and accumulation now exceeds distribution. I see this as an excellent entry to buy calls above the money at $70 or look into shares of USO / UCO/ GUSH ETFs or look at any of the oil sector stocks including well services which are typically small caps with great upside volatility with price action momentum. My favorite of those is BORR which currently is trending up and may have much of its move ahead. The ascending parallel channel of USO is perhaps a signal for the sector at large.
AMEX:USOLong
by AwesomeAvani
USO is in a sweet spot on its chart LONGUSO while the middle east, the Houthi rebels and the Suez Canal shipping quagmire affect oil liquidity globally and prices at the pump continue to be volatile the federal government seeks contracts to restore the national strategic reserves depleted in the last supply demand challenge while the presidential and congressional election cycle starts warming up. On the weekly chart, USO has just crossed over the long term anchored mean VWAP line as well as the POC line of the volume profile. This is a bullish momentum move. Price is situated in the middle of the high volume area showing expectations of decent trading volume and liquidity. I see this as an opportunity to take long trades in oil or anything oil related. CVX is on sale after a drop after the morning open. i will look at oilfield services stocks, big oil and oil futures.
AMEX:USOLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
USO / UCO a play on barrel oil shock LONGUCO is shown here as a one month trend - It is sitting on the rising support tendline about 2% below the recent high. Oil prices contribute to inflation. Anyone in the USA is aware of gasoline prices at the pump. Geopolitics plays into price. At present, US Navy warships are consuming refined oil and heading to the Middle East. Iran and Russia are sanctioned and must sell oil on the global market ( primarily India and China ) at artificially low prices. If Iran retaliates against Isreal, its oil infrastructure will be bombed back into the Stone Age in less than a day or two by the US. Global oil prices will spike nearly instantly from spot oil to futures. US Domestic producers will benefit ; the insane net cash flow to them will dramatically increase quickly. Russia will sell more oil to make up for Iran being taken off supply but will not capitalize so much given the sanctions. The price of oil will likely go north of $100 USD / barrel and potentially higher. Iran could go nuclear and any residual oil infrastructure would be turned into a quagmire of scrap metal in another day of work for the US Navy bombers and the fighter jets that escort them into strategic missions. Defense contractor stocks will spike as well. This could be a black swan event. My trading dictates that I add to my positions and average in until price goes against my idea. I am increasing my positions in gold and silver along with ETFs inversing the indices banks and financial stocks until the dust is settled. This includes any plays on VIX. I will also look at individual domestic oil stocks as well as junior precious metal miners.
AMEX:USOLong
by AwesomeAvani
5