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USO trade ideas

Welp. USO got permabanned from trading Oil.Extremely popular ETF among retail investors United States Oil Fund got banned from trading Oil. Less than 1 month after a 1 to 8 reverse split. The number of holders on Robinhood, a popular broker among retail investors, has been going up despite all the negative news. Actually it has been going up more the more negative news there have been. How to write about this without looking sarcastic or making it look like a parody? I assure you all I am writting is true. With Oil prices crashing the ETF saw about 2 months ago a massive influx of investors and hit their limit. They have responded (after losing alot of their investors money and getting limited by the CME & regulators) by spreading their positions over several months. On April 29th they did a, 8 to 1 reverse split to not get delisted. The price has kept going up since then, perhaps because of all the investors with less than 8 shares that bought back in. According to a Thursday SEC filing made by the ETF, RBC Capital Markets, their broker, has informed the fund running USO that they could no longer buy oil futures and not even hold oil positions. USO response has been to say they may hold larger amounts of cash & cash equivalents and treasuries (zero or even negative yielding US treasuries). RBC reason is speaking in layman terms to not end up like Lehman Brothers. Despite being down 75% YTD USO AUM have quadrupled (and would have done more than this had they not hit the limit). ycharts.com RobinTrack data shows that the number of accounts holding USO has soared by about 2000% since March. So... if they are at the limit, they money they lose can be replenished by new buyers and they can remain at the upper limit forever? (As long as new buyers join). They might have to redesign their offer, since they cannot hold oil anymore. I guess they're just going to hold "investors" money in cash & bonds while collecting fees. Let's see what the regulators say. People wanted to buy Oil but we all know they just want to buy something deep in the red and even if the ETF changes they are not going to sell because they enjoy holding losers. They might even be interested to buy more. Seriously. The keyword is "emotional" but better than this would be "irrational" and even better - I have to - is my own description "complete morons". Of course technical analysts do not need to read the news and knew all of this before it even happened thanks to their magical little oscillators and tools. Retail investors are unphased and ignoring this "FUD". I expect them to buy more, probably expecting an investment in their own money at a fee to magically go up. When I'm doing my research I'm angry and ranting half of the time but also I'm just laughing in front of my screen half of the time. I love my 'job'.
AMEX:USO
by MrRenev
31
TECHNICAL LONG OIL. TINY STOP. GOOD RISK REWARD.A good opportunity has presented itself for a long trade in oil. A mid term trade, from a nice level. First take gives us a roughly 2:1 risk reward and I will be closing half of my position there. Next take is at the first big resistance level. I will close my entire position there. The stop is very short, yet, pay attention, to that it is not ON the level, but slightly BELOW the level. Avoid simple mistakes. Wish you luck!
AMEX:USOLong
by ProSignalsFx
2
USO Bullish: Long 12mos - 24mos Volatile Stock - Invest Smarty!AMEX:USO The U.S. largest oil fund has come under fire as of late. USO’s recent actions to cushion the blow from a historic sell-off in oil markets hit by oversupply and a coronavirus-induced plunge in fuel demand have brought about doubt if the fund can still meet its investment objective of reflecting the spot prices of oil. The fund has been trying to mitigate potential losses from falling crude prices by spreading its holdings through contracts expiring in July, August and September. USO said, "The inability to closely track the benchmark oil futures contract, the changes in its portfolio of investments and the impact of higher levels of contango, will impact the performance of USO and the value of its shares." Many investors have bailed on USO as they understood more about contango. A Seeking Alpha article that described the perils of the futures roll when longer-dated contracts are more expensive than near-term ones. Understanding this motivated many investors to find exposure to oil futures that don’t expire anytime soon such as the United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP (USL), which contains further-out contracts or Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO). Taking into account everything that has occurred over the last few weeks, USO's stock has slightly climbed after executing its reverse split and as oil prices are recovering. You must recognize that the USO fund managers are in survival mode right now and doing everything they can to keep the ETF afloat. USO’s portfolio was moved away from the front-month contracts, which they did ahead of everybody else. As the world continues to battle the COVID pandemic, social distance restrictions are beginning to loosen. However, the recovery for oil will be slow. Oil traders believe it’s likely to take more than a year, and perhaps much longer, before global demand reaches the pre-pandemic levels of roughly 100 million barrels a day. But our world is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels as it is the world's primary energy source. Oil is the world's primary fuel source for transportation and the United States is the world's leader in petroleum consumption. So as the U.S.'s transportation activities recover, so will the USO ETF. My chart analysis sees the stock hitting $32 by January 2021 and expecting to trade above $60 by 2022. I obtained positions in USO when in the stock bottomed out prior to the reverse split and possess several long options at $1.50 & $2.50 calls ($12/$20 with reverse split conversions) that set to expire in 2022. Be effective and trade smartly my friends! I am not a financial advisor. The advice here given is not financial advice even though my excitement might make it look like such. Trade at your own risk and remember nobody can guarantee you results. I conduct analysis and make informed decisions on what I believe is right and at the end of the day, I am just a person, not an expert. Again, this is my belief, a belief of an ordinary man, who just works hard and enjoys the pleasures of swing trading personally. Darell
AMEX:USOLong
by mykonchince
Red alert: Idiots are selling! [Entertainment & lesson]We have a code red. I repeat, we have a code red. I can barely breathe! 🤣 I'm crying After USO had their reverse split, the price gapped up. You can check it on robintrack, first there was a strong decline which might be all the people so wiped out they could only afford <8 shares (LOL), but then even after this it keeps going down! robintrack.net It only went up before you can check for yourself. Since february they have only kept buying, the number of holders line never went down even for a day no matter what. And now even after the initial drop that might be explained for other reasons number of holders went down by ~7% There is only 1 explanation: These masterminds thought the price really went up, and they outsmarted institutions, and have locked up profit 😆 Now I don't know if Robinhood had an erronous display, or if they only show the gains since the split maybe (so investors saw green and thought they got their money back), perhaps some are doing "automated trading"? All I know is the price rallied up because of a reverse split and a group of people known to be stupid and have been strictly buying for 2 months without even 1 day of pause, have started selling. These can't be humans... They must be... something else... Hey so if a really solid company made a 1 > 10 split all the animals would be aggressively buying thinking the price dropped 90%? Making money in markets isn't that hard if you take it seriously, just look what kind of absolute imbeciles we are playing against!
AMEX:USOEducation
by MrRenev
14
Surely USO can't go to $0... RIGHT???The title was at least my reasoning on the trade... On April 20th, as the big news was that Oil was quickly becoming "free" I wanted to participate in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. My preferred instrument to trade oil has always been USO as it is an equity, optionable, and highly liquid. At the time USO was trading at 3.8. I decided to sell the 2.5 June Put Options as my trade. I reasoned that such a big fund as USO "could not go to $0" and I was OK with owning it at 2.5. I might have to wait but people are eventually going to burn off all this oil and need more in the future. On April 21st, a day after my trade, a headline read "OIL, One Of The Largest Oil ETNs, Will Be Shut Down And Liquidated". Wow, so oil ETNs *CAN* stop trading and go to $0. The next day April 22nd, USO announced that it would be doing a reverse 1-to-8 split. This would severely complicate my trade were I to receive fractional options and/or shares. Annoying. Overall I am not all that worried about the prospects of this trade. I was actually given a bit of a lucky reprieve in that when I took the trade my initial order only got a partial fill. As my remaining order sat there outstanding I decided to just close the rest of it. This momentary decision of general risk aversion fortuitously kept me small; small enough to be able to sit back as an intrigued participant rather than a nervous stake holder. As Carl Icahn said last week as he became the counterparty to the negative oil futures delivery this is a "once in-a-lifetime bargain". I think despite the FUD he is right. Despite the unique pressures of current events our modern civilization's thirst for energy has not fundamentally changed for the long term.
AMEX:USOLong
by norok
Good news everyone!Robinhood investors are back! More than 200,000 holders now ^^ More souls to harvest. This reminds me of videos on youtube "Bronze 5 fails" where they make fun of the bottom 10-20% of players (game is league of legends), and they get millions of views. Players are absolutely awful and it is hilarous to watch. 200k holders... 10 million robinhood users... Bottom 2%? I don't know if those awful investors are the bottom 20% or 80%, sometimes seems like the later but I think alot of people just stay away from stocks anyway. "Young investors rush into struggling oil ETF that isn’t even tracking the price of oil anymore" www.cnbc.com "“A low price handle is always a retail trap,” Davi told CNBC in a phone interview." Haha you don't say. Those wise cheap buy investors don't even know what they are buying. CL1! is at $10 now, a worry might be that as USO rolls to the next month it turns negative. They used to sell half 2 weeks before the last trading day and the other half at the end I think. If Oil turns negative we cannot short it anymore, and good buy contango profit. I don't know how big their impact on negative prices was, probably big looking at how big of a hit they took. CME itself ordered them to limit their size, they're now 20% in June 40% in July 20% August 20% September, which I guess is something closer to what dumb money wants. So they win in a way. In another way they don't win because they'll lose everything. www.chicagobusiness.com If CME made them reduce their size... They must have had a part to play in -40... And the CME even saw it coming and warned of negative prices. Professionals have made $300 millions betting against retail... And all I made was a few hundreds... www.cnbc.com Owners of the fund are making a 1-8 reverse split to stay attractive to ignorant retail investors. www.prnewswire.com The tragedy of a fund dropped hard even when Oil bounced way up... And guess what the 29 their price will gap way up and go to $17 wait they were aiming for Oil price? XDDD Already down to 10 bucks but I guess next months are up above 17. Yum yum, I hope they grow. If they can keep selling the front month to buy the continuous next and hold 20% of open interest that would be great. Push 1! down, push 2! up. Come on bullbros we need strong support we can't let the bears win so keep buying at these cheap prices. Only 2 years ago they were ridiculous opportunities when mainstreet got into altcoins, and already we have this, the difference is this scam looks like it will last a while. Expecting more money to be poured into experienced traders pockets from retail in the future. Not very skilled and even average investors are at high risk in those uncertain highly volatile times, sad, there is some really nearly free money to be made. So as I was saying, bottom 20% players... Say we eliminate the bottom 5% that are disabled, this gives the bottom 25% - 5% ==> 75 to 90 IQ (with average 100) and 5% are below 75 which is disability. 20% of the pop is in the 75-90 range damn. 1/5 of voters. 10% 75-85 10% 85-90. Not sure they should be allowed to invest. And maybe they're not the ones at all...? Kinda seems weird to imagine rocket scientists buying garbage like this. I really don't feel sorry for them. They'll get their money back via government help that takes from the smart, and they behave like animals and are disrepectful and everything and commit so many crimes and they laugh at smart people like being smart is weird and risible. Really interesting story. And I'm very positive about volatility, strong moves in 1 direction, contangos. Also I wonder what happens when this ETF has to liquidate... Just go short !2? XD On April 23, CME ordered the funds not to exceed 15,000 long futures contracts for June. For July 2020, the limit is 78,000 long futures contracts while for August it’s 50,000 and for September 35,000. They say they have a total of 150k, if the limit in June is 15k that's 10% not 20... w/e. Can't trust journies. Not a huge contango here, well it's huge but I mean compared to 1! and 2! I wonder when they are going to sell July. Should I call and pretend to be an investor 😁? Oh I know how to convince them "I looked at the RSI and MACD and I noticed they were very oversold I also noted the price recovered congratulations" May Robinhood holders go to 1 million! May Trump print billions to bailout US Oil producers! 🐂🐄🐮 => ⚙️grinder⚙️ => 🥩🥩🥩 Yummy!
AMEX:USOShort
by MrRenev
15
Run as far as you can from this fundOil likely to go negative again. I saw a ton of young investors piling into uso and I don’t they understand how the fund works. I had a friend ask me he should but this and I told him no. First of all you can see over the long run the primary trend is down and I put a chart of crude oil on as well so you can see that it not only goes down faster than crude but has less upside. This fund buys oil futures contracts and never receives delivery on the oil so they consistently have to lose money to renew the contract for the next month, it’s not like slv or gld where they actually buy and hold physical silver and gold, this fund will consistently lose money. It is down over 90% so I don’t want anyone try to play oil with this fund. I don’t recommend anyone play oil now unless you really understand what you’re doing. The oil futures are likely to go negative again so it’s gonna be a race to get your money out without having to take delivery which won’t be profitable for most. If you play it right you maybe able to make money on the short side of oil futures. Long term oil is going way up with inflation but we’re gonna need to see the economy reopened and some other thing.
AMEX:USOShort
by rjchilia123
2
USO Consolidation Buying - MAY Break-out After shorting USO, I have now turned my sentiment around and am LONG on this ETF. Let me explain as I'm sure many people here would question my position. 1) The bottom I believe has been reached as we are seeing strong support in the $2.40-$2.50s range. On Friday 24th, I saw extremely large blocks of USO being acquired - these were Hedge Funds buying. 2) The CME forced USO to change its Futures structure to go out several more months, stating they could not hold the majority of Futures for the 2 primary months out. Now why would they do that exactly? Because they know the market is going to turn around very soon in Oil Futures, and because someone was buying in, hmmm. 3) I saw an article on Friday evening stating that the TRUMP Admin will start buying Oil Futures and Securities in May to boost the price of Oil, also they are considering tariffs on Imported Oil coming, if production was not eased globally. This would be huge for the O&G industry, and I can tell you, that the FED is not going to let Saudi & Russia put 10's of millions of O&G jobs out. 4) Saudi and Russia already started lowering production in Oil, a full week before May, like they said they would. Also, another indication of what's coming. 5) New Shares restricted, and Reverse split. I actually, see these 2 things as positive for USO. For obvious reasons, they will be taking shares out of the market, and as Crude starts to climb its way back to the 30's, the Bulls will be buying in. So, to conclude. I believe getting in before May 1 would be a great entry point, and riding it up until OIL gets back into the 30's would be the strategy. At that point, I will take another glance at everything and see where we're at, at that point. GL everyone. JP - OUT
AMEX:USOLong
by jpreal1
6
Potential long term view of some key marketsUSO: Line of support under $0.00 (if that's possible). This line could be forming basis for up sloping PF and the lower parallel CL1!: Biggest question is if median line holds this drop or if a decade of sub $0.00 prices is setting up. If next several months hold above the red median line then price could move off it. If April and ensuing months close below the median line the a test of last weeks low could be possible. SPX: If current levels holds then another try at 3340 early in coming year. XAUUSD: It looks like Gold is bullish well through 2020 and into 2021 maybe target in $2060 area
AMEX:USO
by mxb1961
1