Segumiento USO 11/09/2019Seguimiento del short strangle sobre el ETF USO con vencimiento al 01/11/2019
USO trade ideas
respect the boundaries Hate to say what I'm looking to happen overseas for another event but if that's what it takes then I'll be ready.
Options: Dec exp, bull call spread ITM. Will adjust as needed. Not a big fan off cutting off a leg but I will if that boundary confirms bullish continuation.
USO t.a. & set up 10/7/19USO was recently overextended at the RSI30 area and the price bounced at a common major support level @ 10.67 area. Price action is now breaking above previous resistance @ 11.12/11.13 level (reference 5min chart for clearer view). Price also broke above the EMA10, and is re-testing resistance @ EMA21 key level on the 4 hour chart, signaling the uptrend may continue if price breaks out above EMA21.
Possible entry:
@11.19
If intraday momentum supports uptrend and price action on 4 hour chart breaks above the EMA21
Stop: any break below back into consolidation area around 11.02 @ -1.38%
Exit: target SMA200, based on USO history, SMA200 is known to act as a major resistance level on the 4 hour chart. 11.61 area @ +4.07%
(OR) exit @ any "end of day close" below the EMA10 during uptrend. Convert stop to this trailing stop if short term uptrend above EMA21 confirms.
USO Green line represents 2 weeks until payout for easy returns from the dump USO just took.
All other zones are longer holding approaches.
Not a professional trader...
USO --- pressure in the Middle East, nothing but a distractionlets see if WTIUSD hits low to mid $30s; then time to long
USO; Breakout with Gap - BullishUS Oil is breaking out of the trend line with a gap up.
EP: 12.00
TP1: 12.63
Still heading lower..Looking at 78 to 88% down to a lower D point.
Observing 10.00
FYI I dont trade this. Just learning about new markets and behaviors and posting for back testing. Thanks everyone.
Oil Should Go Up From HereContrary to common beliefs, US shale is not gonna put oil to death, only to delay the inevitability of its rise ...
USO - Oil RetraceCharts signal a one or two day drop in oil prices. Going all or nothing on USO weekly $12 puts, only 20 contracts though.
Will flip the puts by COB tomorrow, win or lose.
Note: This is a quick flip, it may have another leg up long term. Depends on Iran, though I think both Iran and Trump are all talk with no balls.
Due for a bounce?Good day folks,
I think we could see a bounce in the oil futures. Attacks on tanker, G20 summit, OPEC, etc. this could move the market in the short term.
The VI is rising and so is the RSI.
My target is 12.00, then we'll see.
Thank you,
USO, not buying the bear marketOver the past month especially, crude has fallen into a bear market. Most of this bearish reasoning is coming from the U.S. EIA reports which is showing a large amount of undocumented crude which has resulted in a very swollen crude storage inventory, mostly all in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast.) There is strong reasoning to believe that this undocumented crude is actually plant condensate, which is not exactly an equivalent of crude oil yet being counted as such by weekly data.
If we deduct this probable phony glut of non-crude oil which is more likely some type of condensate, would we still be in a bear market? Possibly, a little bit at least, but that would have much to do with lower refinery run rates and Trump's trade wars.
Venezuelan imports to U.S. are down to zero. Canadian imports can only ramp up nominally by railroad. Saudi Arabia exports to U.S. have been extremely low, in the 400,000 barrels per day region and there isn't much alternative to recovering those lost barrels from elsewhere as heavier barrels have become a scarcity.
It is very possible that at the end of the month, EIA 914 monthly data corrects U.S. weekly data production numbers with a downward revision.
Texas' Permian basin rig count has fallen significantly, while the North American rig count overall is down big time; completions in the Permian have also not taken off, they have grown, which tells us that it seems unlikely the U.S. could have shot up to over 13,000,000 barrels per day in production. It is more likely in my opinion that we see a decline or flatlining in U.S. production as it appears many U.S. producers are focused on (attempting at least) to generate free cash flow to appease everly demanding shareholders.
I think the overall market will be taken by surprise when it comes to realize that condensate has been getting counted as crude and that U.S. production isn't going to be growing as many analysts forecasts; all this is happening at the same time, historically reliable suppliers like Venezuela completely fall into an abyss and OPEC appears as disciplined as ever, while Canadian pipelines are delayed which reduces egress potential to the market in the coming couple years.
Oil to follow suit with an oversold bounceGiven oils correlation to SPY (as shown in the overlay) as well as recently being oversold on the hourly, 4 hour, and daily timeframes it seems the oil bulls will follow SPY and other equity bulls in putting global growth concerns to the side for now and focus on looking to the upside with a potential rate cut and Mexico tariff delays also helping overall sentiment. If USO can break 11.19 the higher low will be set and an uptrend can be reestablished.
Warte auf HandelssignalSchwacher Markt wartet auf weiteren Rückgang um dann eine Verkaufsbestätigung zu erhalten.
USO: Well supported on the long term.The United States Oil Fund has most likely completed its technical pull back on the 1W scale and has resumed the bullish bias (RSI = 57.828, MACD = 0.080, Highs/Lows = 0.2614). Being well supported by all the underlying trend lines, this is probably an early buy signal towards the 16.25 1W Resistance. We are long on USO with TP = 15.00.
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USO - Example of a wedge breaking the wrong wayWedgies aren't always a reversal pattern, just wanted to show an example.
Look at technical indicators as well as chart patterns....
Opportunity To Short USO When price Arrive to the supply zone we consider to short this market make sure follow me I will update the trading idea once we get close to the zone or we hit it .
