USO trade ideas
USOThe upward Trend is broken! Oil begins to look bearish.
Support1 at 13.04
support 2 at 12.56
Support 3 at 11.75.
Short with T1 at 13.00
I use options USO Oct 12.00 puts.
Happy Hunting!
USO I will be on bounce watch for OIL for the next few days.Huge capitulation sell off today in OIL. Usually when everybody throws in the towel its time to look for buying opportunities.
Will be watching for a reversal pattern in oil.
Oil Analysis On Fire! (USO)Hi friends! Welcome to this quick update analysis on the US oil market, via the USO ETF! Let's get it! Looking at the daily USO chart, you can see that price has plummeted, after I warned about the bearish engulfing candle yesterday. If you recall from my post two days ago, I said "I'm particularly interested in a rally up to the "Overhead Resistance" level at $13. If price rallies up to that, and then reverses away from it, I will short USO with a stop order just above $13.30." That turned out to be a perfect play, as USO rallied all the way up to $12.97, and then plummeted to $11.62, within two sessions. Interestingly, you can see that today's candle has stopped right next to the price target of the head and shoulders pattern on my chart (vertical dashed blue trendline.) So, the head and shoulders breakdown has been fulfilled, and it's time to take some profits off of the table. With that said, the sell volume today was enormous, and sell-side momentum is like a freight train from hell. The 61.8% retrace lies just below, at $11.65. If that level is violated, price could fall all the way down to $10.70.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Oil Crashes Into Major Support $USOOil is crashing today. It has been crashing since the beginning of October 2018. The Unites States Oil Fd LP (USO) topped out at $16.25 at the start of October but now trades below $12.00. This is an over 25% collapse in a month. Today looks to be capitulation with panic setting in. This means it is likely putting in a bottom for a bounce. The technical chart confirms this, showing major support at $11.85 and $11.70. I expect a major bounce back to $13.00 on the $USO.
Timber This may fall further. Low entry near. We are currently at the long term support from the beginning of 2018. Looking for entry near the high 9's, low 10's.
Oil Moved Perfectly With Yesterday's Analysis. (USO)Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on the US oil market, via the USO ETF! Looking at the chart, you can see that the USO did exactly what we were looking for after yesterday's analysis. If you recall, I said "I'm particularly interested in a rally up to the 'Overhead Resistance' level at $13. If price rallies up to that, and then reverses away from it, I will short USO with a stop order just above $13.30." Today, USO rallied as expected, up to $12.97. That was close enough to $13, as it immediately turned lower, printing a nasty bearish engulfing candle, and closing near the lows of the day. Interestingly, you can also see that the low of the day was right on the 50% retrace, which I warned about yesterday, saying that there was "some decent support around the 50% retrace." From here, we want to see a follow-through breakdown during the next few sessions. It would be particularly bearish for the USO to close below the 50% retrace. From there, the USO could fall to $12.08, and then the $11.65 handle.
The MACD is oversold, but that doesn't mean that it wont remain in oversold territory. The volume on today's decline was healthy and red, highlighting the relentless strength of the bears.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Oversupply Slams Oil Market, But Conditions Are Oversold! (USO)Hi friends! Welcome to this analysis on the bloodbath in the oil market! Let's get right to it. looking at the daily chart, for the USO ETF, we can see that a massive head and shoulders pattern (in blue) was formed inside of the ascending parallel channel (in pink.) As you can see, a devastating breakdown occurred on November 1st, which smashed through the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, as well as the 200 EMA (in purple,) and the bottom of the ascending parallel channel. Not only that, it did so on high volume. Naturally, a complete meltdown has ensued, as the bears engulf this vulnerable market. The question is, where do we go from here?
If we look at the height of the head and shoulders formation, and subtract it from the breakdown point of the neckline (vertical blue dashed trendline) you can see that it extends almost perfectly to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, around $11.60. So, the sheer size of the head and shoulders formation is suggesting a fall all the way to the 61.8% retrace. Price is currently nearing some decent support around the 50% retrace. So, I would be cautious about taking any new short positions here. If you aren't shorting the oil market already, it's probably best to wait for a bounce, before opening new shorts. Friday's candle was a quasi spinning top doji, which is a bullish reversal candle. So, I would wait to see if there is a bounce early next week. I'm particularly interested in a rally up to the "Overhead Resistance" level at $13. If price rallies up to that, and then reverses away from it, I will short USO with a stop order just above $13.30.
The MACD is showing continuous downside expansion, but we are deep in oversold territory. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation, or a quick relief rally, while traders assess the fundamental conditions of the oil market. Speaking of fundamentals, there is a real concern that the market is heavily oversupplied again, in the face of slowing global demand. To put the recent decline into perspective, I read that it was "the greatest 10 day fall in the past 34 years" — a very ominous statistic.
Technically, a case could be made for a fall all the way down to the $10.70 level. I took the height of the ascending parallel channel, and I subtracted that from the breakdown point, and it projects a fall down to around $10.70, which corresponds perfectly with a few peaks from May and September. That is a very aggressive downside target, which would be produced by a fall to the upper $40's in the actual price of US crude. So, it's best to see how USO reacts to the overhead resistance zone first. If and when it fails to surpass that level, I will enter new shorts, with an initial target around the 61.8% retrace.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Long USO (USOIL)After a 10 straight drops, oil finally at support based on my indicator. As long as the support holds, long oil.
TP: 65
$USO US Oil - Oversold at Support$USO US Oil looking very oversold. Expecting to hold support this week and stay above $13.00
Looking for a medium term bounce - targeting ~$15.40 (early October gap-fill) by year-end
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
USO! when oil starts the bear move it's one of the easiest tradeI've been doing well buying puts once the corrections are developing. Usually about 3-4 weeks out to allow the correction to develop and so I dont get slammed by theta decay. Now eventually if we're in an impulse to go down, we will need to see a bigger correction to develop. Will we get a few more pushes down before that happens, or will it start right now? Either way I'm looking to purchase another put sometime within the next week (as long as we dont breakout past the downtrend line, this will signal a deeper correction/ reversal depending on how price behaves after that)
Longterm view in the comments. (not confirmed yet, just looking that way)US
thanks for looking, and trade responsibly!
When you see Red... think Green! USO due for a small bounce?See callout bubbles. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
USO Weekly Chart Trend Ive been watching this struggle to get back inside the reversal trend. Feels like we see more downside.
$USO - geopolitical news always affects oilBeen trading USO option before. Slow mover and the area is sensitive to any news. Exercise caution!
USO Rising WedgePlenty of gains to come out of USO yet. I'll start to become more bearish towards the end of September, otherwise consider me an oil bull for right now. On a side note, I did pick up calls at beginning of the day yesterday too for some nice gains. Good luck everyone!
Notice: Not financial advice.
USO mid-term outlookthe 3 month chart is starting to look like a cup and handle formation. Indicating we could see a huge spike for Crude Oil in the next 6-9 months.
