USO trade ideas
Short-Term SELL, USOIn the energy sector, we have noticed a possible speculative short on crude oil as we expect oil to depreciate by -1.60% by the next week. In our opinion, sellers might put pressure on the actual price particularly near the intermediate resistance which might limit an upside move to no more than 6.80% from the last daily closing price.
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USO - 1yr 4hr last shot in the wedgeThere's not much room left to trade in this range for "quick" trades. We can hit one last one with 2:1 risk/reward.
I have been opening a half short position at the top of the range after closing out the long to profit as much as possible off this pattern.
Looking at past summers and this wedge I can be optimistic for a big move.
Key Question is the Long OIL Reflation Macro trade on or offTake a look at the weekly OIL ETF (long oil chart) and the SCO ETF (leveraged short oil chart). My money is on the SCO trade.
The Dive Continues For US Oil ETFOn April 21, 2017, the US Oil ETF ( USO ) 50 day moving average (DMA) crossed below the 200 DMA. Historically this has occurred 8 times and the stock has a minimal drop of 0.636% over the next 12 trading days. The fund has a median drop of 2.817% and a maximum drop of 27.553% over the next 12 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.7484. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been trending down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.7960. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund has been moving up, but there is a delay and it could come back down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8095 while the negative is at 0.9963. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.5778 and D value is 49.2183. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the fund is trending down, but has some distance before reaching oversold territory.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction has the fund moving down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position in its trend channel, the fund could drop at least 3.00%% over the next 12 trading days.
CLEAR RESISTANCE LEVEL APPROACHING IN OIL USO!Recently exited this USO trade for a 7% gain! To those of you still holding on, don't get greedy above $11. Short be short term resistance, fade candidate.
USO to continue higherI think USO will keep going up for now. I suspected that it would reverse, as early as a week ago on Friday. USO
High Probability Bullish BounceThis price zone coincides with the .50 fibonacci retracement of the wave following wave C's completion. This area has proven as support for over a year. Considering that low oil prices hurt the economy of many countries around the world, could be safe to assume a cooperative effort will take prices higher
OUT USO! 7% GAIN!Entered at rising trendline (see prior post). Position now closed.
Entry signal: $10
Exit: $10.70
7% GAIN!!!
Update on US Crude- Short Time FrameI'm just updating my chart for AMEX:USO right now. I think there may be consolidation going into the API report on Tuesday afternoon then a continuation of the current trend upwards.
$USO possible rebound from daily support$USO sell volume had been lighten, price Over-sold and near Trend-line or "Quadruped Bottom". Possible rebound from here.
