USO trade ideas
USO - 1yr 4hr long for the long haul The trade: as mentioned before, short term we can sell puts because our mission is to get a long position. For the quick play, a long position with stops below the wedge for the short term continuation of the trend. Range is getting tight so I won't be betting the farm until there's a clean break with confirmation of a new trend.
Examples of fundamentals:
Reasons to buy long term:
1. Politics in the US:
a. Rex Tillerson – Head of Exxon for 10 years has been appointed secretary of state.
b. President Trump has warned Mexico that they will pay for his wall through tariffs, and that he will re-negotiate trade deals like NAFTA.
i. With these two points in mind we can reasonably conclude that a tariff will be put on – and the best option that benefits both is a tariff on crude + gasoline imports. It will protect their market share in the USA and line the pockets of Oil/Gas producers.
IMPORTANT MA CROSS FOR USO FUNDOn March 24, 2017 the United States Oil Fund USO, 200 daily moving average crossed below the 250 daily moving average. Historically this has occurred 10 times. When this happens, the ETF drops a minimum of 0.151%, has a median drop of 2.214% and maximum drop of 10.623% over the next 10 trading days. This last occurred December 8, 2014 and the fund dropped 67.92% over 296 trading days until it hit the bottom.
Current USO chart from TradingView
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 29.0332. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund is nearing oversold territory, however, the fund recently hit the oversold level and is slightly heading upward from a 23.5711 level on March 14, 2017.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -30.2018. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is currently 1.3201. The VI determines current trend and direction. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund is trending downward.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, and VI levels, the overall near-term fund direction appears to be trending downward. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the fund could drop 1.93% before turning upward again.
USO to breakout above US$11.50 amid potential breakout in crude As the crude oil price is still trending within the uptrend channel, we expect it is poise for a breakout towards the US$60-US$62 levels.
USO Ichimoku Buy SignalsOn the 1 day chart, price broke above the triangle pattern and is trying to cross above blue base line. The lagging line is also attempting to cross up over price. Last, the 50 DMA is trying to cross up over the 200 DMA. Thanks for viewing my chart. I'm new to charting/trading, so any corrections or help would be appreciated.
Going long. to go or not to go?I have been recently watching United States Oil Fund's 6 months, 1y and 5y chart and they all say the same thing. go long. any thoughts?
USO - Support around 10.90Looking for USO to strengthen around 10.90 where 50, 100 and 200 ma confluence exists. Also trendline support.
Uptrend Intact Despite False BreakoutPrice has recovered considerably since being rejected at resistance on January 3rd. The current trading channel remains valid, as well. I am looking for a retest of resistance on price in addition to the new resistance trend lines on RSI and ROC. Of note, the MACD is turning positive, too.
USO Breakout Rejected at Resistance Trend Line- Indicators BleakPrice briefly pierced resistance, although, this was promptly rejected during the US regular session hours. Concerning indicators, the RSI uptrend appears to be broken to the downside- same with the ROC uptrend. Concurrently, the MACD just turned negative. My short-term price targets are $10.90 and then $10.50.
Fibonacci Circles: Price Rejected at 2.618 Extension, AgainThe USO trading price has been rejected (on large volume) for a second time now at the 2.618 Fib extension- with the first rejection occurring in June of 2016. Next area of support is around $10.90.
Our ETF Trend Letter subscribers love this setup in $USOwe are nicely positioned from lower for this breakout
USO Short Term LongWe saw a gap down on the open today. Regardless, buyers were still willing to come in and drive the price higher. I think this is a good opportunity to squeeze out the people who got short positions in early on what appears to be a top forming.
Be prepared for a gap up on the next open. In which case, I still wouldn't be afraid to open a position up. Looking to get long once the MACD crosses upwards. My stop will happen if the MACD crosses back downwards.
I would look for a target price of around 11.90 - 12.00. I would not be looking to hold this for more than a few days.
USO Medium Top Forming (Update 12/06/2016)Medium term traders shouldn't be shorting this yet. We still have positive momentum on the MACD. Also, I think it's a bad sign to see buyers willing to come in and drive the price higher after a gap down today. I think this still needs more time before heading down.
USO Medium Term Top Forming Update (12/05/2016)A top appears to be forming on USO but medium term traders should not short yet. Looking at the MACD we still see positive momentum going on. It is safer to wait until we start seeing the MACD cross towards the downside before we look to short this.
USO Medium Term Top FormingLook for price to hang out in the price range box for several days before moving down. If you want to open a position towards the top of the price range box that is fine. Personally I'm going to wait for some sort of failed breakout towards the top of the price range before getting involved on the short side.
I'm giving two target prices to close your position on. Personally I would close out about 20-40% of my position at the first target price, then look to close out the rest at the second target price.
Good Luck
