Looking for entry in USOThese are my targets for possible points I'm looking for. Monday and Tuesday could be down going to remain cautious.
USO trade ideas
USO - 15mMy primary green count looks like a bust, and is completely invalid over USO 10.80. The purple alternative is my new primary expectation, although the non-overlapping Leading Diagonal (albeit rare) as shown in white is also valid.
I plan to exit remaining shorts on a purple iv retrace.
USO - 30mHere's the USO picture to accompany linked idea. Over 10.64 I'll be out of shorts, though the green (ii) doesn't technically invalidate until 10.80 breaks, it is becoming increasingly less probable as price pushes higher. The green target box at 50-61.8% retrace is a standard expectation, but not necessary for price to turn there in the Elliott Wave pattern.
USO - 1hrZoomed out to put move in perspective. Waiting for re-entry on shorts in wave (ii) target box.
USO - 30mYesterday I took partial profits on short entries from near the recent top in high 10s. I plan to reload shorts in wave (ii) target region. Wouldn't be surprised to see my Parabolic SAR tripped, only to have price turn down again below the new signal line for lower at 8.95. Ultimate targets remain sub-7.
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In for further weakness..Good possibility for further weakness. Target is towards the lows. Will be using tightening stops for the trade given the potential of a trend reversal on any sharp downward movement.
USO - 30mNear-term possibilities outlined in Elliott Waves on the chart. See previous ideas for more info.
USO - On it's way to the centerlineIt's really astonishing how the ancient rules of Action/Reaction work out.
Newton was a REAL genius.
Next stop - Centerline.
P!
mytradingcoach.teachable.com
USO - 15mImpulsive bounce from 8.97/8.87 would be a warning to shorts. Strong break below 8.87 points to 8.53/.25 or lower. USO has had some extremely extended 3rd waves over the past few years, so catching this knife (looking long) is ill-advised. Long traders need to see a 1-2 bounce set-up off support in order to establish both a probable potential trade target as well as an invalidation stop below start of presumed wave 1.
USO - 1hKey inflection region on USO. About 4% from making the bullish (white and purple) counts extremely unlikely imo. White count revised from earlier posts; purple count represents the old white. Embedded Stoch RSI suggests green wave iii to new lows underway.
USO - 30m9.48 signal level is broken. Some variation of the light blue count to new lows may be playing out. The red count COULD still be operative as an expanded flat - resistance remains as annotated. I'll get some Fibonacci measurements on smaller degrees posted later, but check the linked hourly idea for perspective.
USO - 1hrBacking out to the 1-hr perspective, still expecting another lower low UNLESS an impulsive motive wave up forms in (v) of minute wave i (adjusted white count wave degree from earlier posts). The white count is a non-overlapping Leading Diagonal off a 3-wave a-b-c low in February. The probability of this count is highly suspect imo - rare pattern off an apparently incomplete decline - so price will need to prove itself for the bull case.
Primary expectation is for one of the bear counts pointing to completion of wave 5 below 7.00.
USO Head and Shoulders formedBecause USO is a roll trade ETF you get a smoothed price without the rollover spike/drops you see in WTI.
Look at the head and shoulders it has formed,
Price target of 8.50
EDIT: Also note the falling RSI for the three peaks.
USO - 1hrTwo notional paths outlined. The new "blue" path is the most aggressive, whereas the red path reflects the expanded flat I'd notated earlier for wave (iv) of I. Below my red box the blue path becomes more probable. Regardless, I'm short from higher. Price staying below 10.64 is key to new lows; signal levels haven't changed.
USO - 30mWhile I'm not thrilled with today's pop, price is still below resistance. Nothing will change unless resistance is broken above 10.25.
USO - 15mToday's new low makes the white bullish count much less probable imo. Red bearish count is my primary at this time. See also hourly analysis.
