In for further weakness..Good possibility for further weakness. Target is towards the lows. Will be using tightening stops for the trade given the potential of a trend reversal on any sharp downward movement.
USO trade ideas
USO - 30mNear-term possibilities outlined in Elliott Waves on the chart. See previous ideas for more info.
USO - On it's way to the centerlineIt's really astonishing how the ancient rules of Action/Reaction work out.
Newton was a REAL genius.
Next stop - Centerline.
P!
mytradingcoach.teachable.com
USO - 15mImpulsive bounce from 8.97/8.87 would be a warning to shorts. Strong break below 8.87 points to 8.53/.25 or lower. USO has had some extremely extended 3rd waves over the past few years, so catching this knife (looking long) is ill-advised. Long traders need to see a 1-2 bounce set-up off support in order to establish both a probable potential trade target as well as an invalidation stop below start of presumed wave 1.
USO - 1hKey inflection region on USO. About 4% from making the bullish (white and purple) counts extremely unlikely imo. White count revised from earlier posts; purple count represents the old white. Embedded Stoch RSI suggests green wave iii to new lows underway.
USO - 30m9.48 signal level is broken. Some variation of the light blue count to new lows may be playing out. The red count COULD still be operative as an expanded flat - resistance remains as annotated. I'll get some Fibonacci measurements on smaller degrees posted later, but check the linked hourly idea for perspective.
USO - 1hrBacking out to the 1-hr perspective, still expecting another lower low UNLESS an impulsive motive wave up forms in (v) of minute wave i (adjusted white count wave degree from earlier posts). The white count is a non-overlapping Leading Diagonal off a 3-wave a-b-c low in February. The probability of this count is highly suspect imo - rare pattern off an apparently incomplete decline - so price will need to prove itself for the bull case.
Primary expectation is for one of the bear counts pointing to completion of wave 5 below 7.00.
USO Head and Shoulders formedBecause USO is a roll trade ETF you get a smoothed price without the rollover spike/drops you see in WTI.
Look at the head and shoulders it has formed,
Price target of 8.50
EDIT: Also note the falling RSI for the three peaks.
USO - 1hrTwo notional paths outlined. The new "blue" path is the most aggressive, whereas the red path reflects the expanded flat I'd notated earlier for wave (iv) of I. Below my red box the blue path becomes more probable. Regardless, I'm short from higher. Price staying below 10.64 is key to new lows; signal levels haven't changed.
USO - 30mWhile I'm not thrilled with today's pop, price is still below resistance. Nothing will change unless resistance is broken above 10.25.
USO - 15mToday's new low makes the white bullish count much less probable imo. Red bearish count is my primary at this time. See also hourly analysis.
USO - 1hrUSO turned down at 10.80, hitting the 38.2% retrace to the penny in presumed wave (y) of iv (shown in green). Negative divergence does not necessarily prefer the bearish (green) interpretation over the bullish (white) one as such divergence would be expected into either 3-wave high.
Price recently broken through initial support and may be forming an impulse to new all-time lows (as reflected in the red count). Hitting the target box, bouncing correctively in wave ii, then falling below the wave i low would increase confidence in this count.
Disclaimer: I'm short from last week.
USO - 15 minUSO paused inside resistance yesterday (white box), but has gapped down this morning. Micro Resistance moved down to 10.14/.26. Larger degree support still in place as noted by the "Support" box down to ~9.71. This, like all markets, is not linear. Wouldn't be surprised by a few bounces along the way. As long as resistance hold above - which I'll keep moving down - then I'm expecting new lows.
Note also signature embedded stochastic RSI.
USO - 15minA 5-wave move below support is key, and I'd like to see 9.48 give way. Should this happen, then Support turns into Resistance. IF price moves over 10.80, then high 11s are possible for minute wave v (shown in white) for a presumed Leading Diagonal.
USO - 1hrNote negative divergence on hourly MACD. Price is right on top of support now. Micro wave 1 (in red) was lower in pre-market hours than shown on this RH chart.
USO - DailyUSO bounced right to the .382 retrace of minute waves ii-iii at 10.80...to the penny. The (presumed) expanded complex w-x-y structure made this a difficult region to trade. Confirmation of new lows will come on break down of the support region indicated on the chart.
Over 10.80, oil could form an impulse off the low. As no market is linear, I don't expect a rally over 16.20 immediately. But should an impulsive rally form, with retraces holding support along the way, then I'd start looking long with better confirmation of a significant bottom over 16.20.
1hr and 15m charts to follow.
USO - 1hrUSO has turned down from the 38.2 retrace, a common 4th wave target. Awaiting confirmation with an impulsive structure forming off the high. This bearish posture is suggested by my green / orange count. The complex expanded flat (where (x) made a lower low than wave iii) is one of several interpretations. IF this count plays out, then USO should be headed to new lows below 7.00.
A corrective decline holding support could be suggestive of the white bullish count.
USO - 1hrLong USO, however price is nearing resistance in a potential complex corrective rally off the January lows. A new high in price on divergent technicals could initiate a pull-back. The nature of this supposed pull-back will offer clues as to whether the low is in, or if on final decline lies ahead. Decline - should it develop - could extend below 7.00.
Given the February low was seen on a clear 3 waves down (labeled (x) here) I'm not confident in longer-term bullish prospects considering the Elliott Wave. Only a solid 5-up, 3-down holding support, and taking out the top of that initial 5-up would increase probabilities substantially in favor of a meaningful low last month.
USO can be scalped intraday, enter in bottom of channel.Long 9.66 -9.81 area. Tight stops if scalping. Rinse and repeat. Breach of 9.64 could be a ss trigger.
