USO trade ideas
USO - 30mHere's the USO picture to accompany linked idea. Over 10.64 I'll be out of shorts, though the green (ii) doesn't technically invalidate until 10.80 breaks, it is becoming increasingly less probable as price pushes higher. The green target box at 50-61.8% retrace is a standard expectation, but not necessary for price to turn there in the Elliott Wave pattern.
USO - 30mYesterday I took partial profits on short entries from near the recent top in high 10s. I plan to reload shorts in wave (ii) target region. Wouldn't be surprised to see my Parabolic SAR tripped, only to have price turn down again below the new signal line for lower at 8.95. Ultimate targets remain sub-7.
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USO - 15mImpulsive bounce from 8.97/8.87 would be a warning to shorts. Strong break below 8.87 points to 8.53/.25 or lower. USO has had some extremely extended 3rd waves over the past few years, so catching this knife (looking long) is ill-advised. Long traders need to see a 1-2 bounce set-up off support in order to establish both a probable potential trade target as well as an invalidation stop below start of presumed wave 1.
USO - 30m9.48 signal level is broken. Some variation of the light blue count to new lows may be playing out. The red count COULD still be operative as an expanded flat - resistance remains as annotated. I'll get some Fibonacci measurements on smaller degrees posted later, but check the linked hourly idea for perspective.
USO - 1hrBacking out to the 1-hr perspective, still expecting another lower low UNLESS an impulsive motive wave up forms in (v) of minute wave i (adjusted white count wave degree from earlier posts). The white count is a non-overlapping Leading Diagonal off a 3-wave a-b-c low in February. The probability of this count is highly suspect imo - rare pattern off an apparently incomplete decline - so price will need to prove itself for the bull case.
Primary expectation is for one of the bear counts pointing to completion of wave 5 below 7.00.
USO - 1hrTwo notional paths outlined. The new "blue" path is the most aggressive, whereas the red path reflects the expanded flat I'd notated earlier for wave (iv) of I. Below my red box the blue path becomes more probable. Regardless, I'm short from higher. Price staying below 10.64 is key to new lows; signal levels haven't changed.