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United States Oil Fund

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USO trade ideas

USO - 1hrUSO turned down at 10.80, hitting the 38.2% retrace to the penny in presumed wave (y) of iv (shown in green). Negative divergence does not necessarily prefer the bearish (green) interpretation over the bullish (white) one as such divergence would be expected into either 3-wave high. Price recently broken through initial support and may be forming an impulse to new all-time lows (as reflected in the red count). Hitting the target box, bouncing correctively in wave ii, then falling below the wave i low would increase confidence in this count. Disclaimer: I'm short from last week.
AMEX:USOShort
by nick.holland78
USO - DailyUSO bounced right to the .382 retrace of minute waves ii-iii at 10.80...to the penny. The (presumed) expanded complex w-x-y structure made this a difficult region to trade. Confirmation of new lows will come on break down of the support region indicated on the chart. Over 10.80, oil could form an impulse off the low. As no market is linear, I don't expect a rally over 16.20 immediately. But should an impulsive rally form, with retraces holding support along the way, then I'd start looking long with better confirmation of a significant bottom over 16.20. 1hr and 15m charts to follow.
AMEX:USOShort
by nick.holland78
USO - 1hrLong USO, however price is nearing resistance in a potential complex corrective rally off the January lows. A new high in price on divergent technicals could initiate a pull-back. The nature of this supposed pull-back will offer clues as to whether the low is in, or if on final decline lies ahead. Decline - should it develop - could extend below 7.00. Given the February low was seen on a clear 3 waves down (labeled (x) here) I'm not confident in longer-term bullish prospects considering the Elliott Wave. Only a solid 5-up, 3-down holding support, and taking out the top of that initial 5-up would increase probabilities substantially in favor of a meaningful low last month.
AMEX:USOLong
by nick.holland78
USO - DailyUSO has bounced between the 23.6 and 38.2 retrace measured between waves circle ii-iii. This is a typical target for wave iv, although the complex expanded flat w-x-y was a beast to trade. Fourth waves are notorious for trading difficulty. I'm anticipating one more low to complete this long-term correction. Overlapping action off the lows is not suggestive of a major bottom in my opinion. Price may prove me wrong however. The target box for circle iv indicated on the 38.2% of this chart is reachable, but its not necessary for price to hit this target before turning lower.
AMEX:USOShort
by nick.holland78
The oil sell off isn't over yet.A lot of people have called bottom for oil but I am inclined to think that it still has room to fall. I think this last mini rally was a combination of people calling bottom and the third short squeeze (albeit a small one) since this time last year. Once the short covering is done the bears will take over again. Hop in short and wait for stops to start triggering when all of these short sellers are done covering and the bottom callers were wrong to continue the downtrend, throw in Saudi Arabia and how they claimed that they are willing to drop and hold at $20/barrel as long as it takes to ensure all of the companies with high production costs are forces to end operations, and oil has a lot more room on the downside before it begins a recovery.
AMEX:USOShort
by SDMarik
USO - 1hUSO is approaching the end of a major correction. This pattern may resolve in one more low (OML) into the target box as shown with green (v). The alternative, shown in yellow, is an expanded flat for wave (c) of alt circle iv. Regardless, the time for shorting oil has nearly ended, except on short-term swings or day trades. Preparing to build a long position with verification of a significant low. See USO - Daily analysis idea for additional detail. MACD and other momentum indicators should build positive divergence on the low, although positive divergence on all time frames is not guaranteed. Analysis based on Elliott Wave principles augmented by Fibonacci extensions and retracements.
AMEX:USO
by nick.holland78