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USO trade ideas

11 Week Pattern in $USO in 2023The methodology shown here is what I call "Time@Mode" because of a pattern of counting the number of bars at "the mode" of a trend and using that count to project the time of the move out of that mode. I found the pattern by plotting charts by hand back in the 1980's, but fine-tuned here at TradingView with the powerful charting and tools available to us, amongst many other innovations and discoveries. What you can see is a pattern of 11-week moves that have occurred AFTER AMEX:USO , or Crude Oil's ETF, formed 11 weeks of time in the uptrend* from March 2023 through July 2023. I have highlighted the range of the mode from 63.21 to 63.97 using the blue price tags. Once the mode has set and the market either "range expands away" from the mode or simply has an "entire range" above the mode (for an uptrend), then the timer starts and you can count the rally starting from the start of the 'range expansion bar' or the 'bar above the mode' as bar 1. *Step back a moment to define 'trend': "UP-trend" is whenever there is a period of 5 bars without a new low AND when the last price is > the mode from the low. This is the case from the low in March 2023. The opposite is true for downtrends. It is a simple definition and it works. To continue the story of the 11-week pattern: AMEX:USO had an 11-week accumulation or 'mode' back in March-July 2023 which set up an 11-week rally into September 2023. That was followed by an 11-week decline back to the 11-week mode in December 2023. Since that low AMEX:USO has been rebounding and this is the 8th week of that rebound. Will the pattern keep repeating? We shall see. For now, at least you know the pattern. Cheers, Tim 11:38AM Feb 1, 2024 AMEX:USO 71.80 last If you have two t
AMEX:USOLong
by timwest
1
USO ( Oil Futures ETF) Swing Trade Review LONGThe idea was that while US Oil is not directly affected by the tensions in the Middle East as most of it is domestic consumption, what portion of it that is exported does not go through the Suez Canal but rather across the Pacific to Asia mostly. The idea was expanded by no matter that, the Middle East quagmire affects global oil prices all intertwined. The China recession is a drag on oil prices as is Russian sales below market but no matter the shipping costs have gone up and so also the price of what is being shipped. The 30-minute chart shows the trades based on the premise of a volume profile with the evolving high volume area between the blue lines and price simply a black line. As the price is supported by the lower black line and resisted by the upper black line and the price is expected to rise, the trade plan was to "buy low" when the price dropped to the lower black line with two lots of shares. When the price rose to the upper black line sell one of those lots and run the other to gradually acquire more shares and average up. A high-volume area breakout 3 days ago was also used as a buy signal. As of the present, the trade is carrying five lots of 10 shares each. Profit has been pulled out in partials each time a lot has been sold at a red down arrow. The trade close signal will be from the RSI indicator when the fast RSI line in green goes under the slower red RSI line. Upon closure, the profits will be redeployed by shorting USO using a similar strategy: short selling at the top of the high volume area two lots of shares and buying to cover one lot at the bottom of the high-volume area. Although this trade is a slow-moving swing trade used for disciplined and deliberate trading, it is very low risk with moderate profit and for the most part is risk-free because the entry points are relatively precise especially if using a shorter time frame than the 30 minutes here.
AMEX:USOLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
USO Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 011424Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 69/61.80% Chart time frame : C A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
AMEX:USO
by fibonacci6180
$USO looks like a great shortJust like everyone think GOLD is going higher, people are overly bullish oil because of the war, blah blah, *insert your fundamental bias here.* The reality is, the chart looks like shit. Price just rallied directly into resistance and has now formed a lower high confirming resistance at $79. The price of oil is going much lower from here. I wouldn't touch this from the long side until we get into the green support levels. Good luck to all of the people bullish oil here because it won't turn out well for you.
AMEX:USOShort
by benjihyam
USO Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 121923 Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 69/61.80% Chart time frame : C A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
AMEX:USO
by fibonacci6180
USO US Crude OIl ETF trending down SHORTUSO on the weekly chart over the past two and a half years makes a symmetrical triangle patter with the upper and lower trendlines drawn in. Price appears to be dropping out of the pattern in a breakdown and she now yet tested the prior support trendline as resistance. The Stochastic RSI and Zero Lag MACD are confirmatory. The Relative volatility indicator shows downward volatility exceeding upward for six weeks now. Putin just met with OPEC+ in Saudi Arabian. It is doubt that the OPEC+ has the fortitude to cut supply to force prices higher. Dropping the price of oil nicely supports global efforts to stymie inflation for the good of all except perhaps OPEC+ and Big Oil. I will take a short position in buying put options on USO. I will strike $ 60 because the puts will be cheaper and I expect the price to drop below that into a volume void on the profile and not be easily able to get above the volume shelf at $63 where I will set the stop. I am targeting $35.00 which is comfortably above the volume profile POC line. I will take an expiration next July during the presidential nominations. Politicians are also wanting oil prices to drop to keep voters happy. All goepolitical events will have a bid in the price action of the puts.
AMEX:USO
by AwesomeAvani
Low in USO target $94-96Since I was pretty close back in July at calling the next high (though I didn't know it at the time) in USO around $83-85, and my dowsing keeps bringing my attention to it, I figured I'd check in more seriously on USO and post an idea. Early last week was telling me to look for a low on Thurs. It's really good when price has a big move on my dates since they are often reversals, and Thursday USO was down over 4%. Then I had to buy it on Friday (but I bought on Thursday). That held up super well, so I think it's a longer term low in place. It might be a bit choppy over the next couple weeks fyi. When I've asked for prices over the last couple weeks I've gotten a prices all over $90! Specifically, $94 on 11/10, $98 11/16, and today got $96. I asked how long this takes and got "months" as an answer, specifically 4. I really want to see this last low hold. We'll see!
AMEX:USOLong
by JenRz
USO Bull Put spread on -1 sig testSymbol USO Open Date 11/8/2023 Put or Call Put Expiry Date 1/19/2024 Short Strike 65 Long Strike 64 Price to Open 0.24 Min Width Multiple 2 Risk Ratio 3.17 Return on Risk 31.6% Opening DTE 72 1 Day ROI% 0.44% Max Annual ROI % 160.1% USO has the worst calendars of any ETF. Tested the Bullish Daily -1 sig in the morning and I sold behind -2 sig at 65. Essentially giving it 1.25 sig of room to win. Had to go out to the Jan 19 just to get the spreads though, so that sucks. Did not want to be near 66 or 67, so had to be far out on the calendar. This one is rolled out so far that I'll have to buy it back if it stalls at 73.50. If it gets the Bull hard push above VWAP at 75.50, then I'll be more likely to let it expire until something else becomes available. Have to watch some economic analysis, but not sure why Oil related markets are falling so hard and fast. Because nothing says LOWER oil prices like a war in the Middle East with a Terrorist group... WTF? It's like the 2020/2021 SPY rally where nothing says GO TIME BULLISH like shutting down the entire global economy for 6 months... WTF? The Fed is the ONLY thing that matters apparently. Have to watch some economic analysis, but not sure why Oil related markets are falling so hard and fast. Because nothing says LOWER oil prices like a war in the Middle East with a Terrorist group... WTF? It's like the 2020/2021 SPY rally where nothing says GO TIME BULLISH like shutting down the entire global economy for 6 months... WTF? The Fed is the ONLY thing that matters apparently.
AMEX:USOLong
by claypuzzle
2
Oil Leading Dollar Lower? Watch Oil!Rising yields have lead to a massive sell-off in OIL markets foreshadowing: tighter economic conditions, cheaper energy prices and lower inflation prints - ultimately resulting in a weaker dollar / stronger euro in the short term. Globally inflation took off mainly as a result of covid stimulus exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even though the war is far from over the supply chain kinks / export bans caused from it are mainly resolved. Lower natural gas prices result in cheaper fertilizer and food. Cheaper oil reduces manufacturing and transportation costs. Higher yields and higher energy prices are a cure for themselves. If a Dollar pullback / Euro rally is expected, a rally in risk assets will ensue. Lower inflation leads to greater speculation of a soft landing ultimately resulting in softer economic conditions - beneficial for risk assets. I believe Oil has shown the markets hand and is notifying us of weakness in yields/dollar. Gold may look to breakout of its 3 year range between $1600-$2000. A return to pre-war levels for the dollar will give Gold and risk assets a boost. On a longer time period, I remain bearish EURO / bullish Dollar in the long term as I believe the economy remains resilient elevating inflation into next - dispelling the soft landing scenario. However in the next 3-6 months, I can envision a weaker Dollar and all that comes with it. Supporting Charts will be posted below.
AMEX:USO
by arama-nuggetrouble
1
USO ETF: a short trading idea for 21 September 2023Oil prices have recently reached new highs compared to last year, because of the US suspending the sale of oil from its reserves, and OPEC+ limiting its production. These actions created a deficit of 'black gold' in the market, which has pushed prices up. However, yesterday, 20 September 2023, the US Federal Reserve announced the likelihood of another interest rate hike. This served as a powerful trigger for a decrease in the prices of commodities, including energy. Therefore, our focus today is on the USO ETF chart, which invests in oil futures and whose value is also dependent on oil prices. On the D1 timeframe, resistance has formed at 82.33 with support at 77.39. On the H1 timeframe, the local upward trend was broken. If quotes break through the level of 77.39 downwards, they may decline to 75.65 with a further correction or continuation of the trend. ---- Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews. The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.87% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
AMEX:USO
by RoboMarkets
$USO Double Top Since August 23, AMEX:USO has been on a consistent upward trajectory, forming a Double Top pattern. Given this technical signal, it may be advisable to either sell call options or lock in some gains. In technical analysis within stock trading, a Double Top is a bearish reversal pattern that signifies a potential change in the trend from an uptick to a downtick. The pattern is characterized by the formation of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal in price, separated by a trough. The pattern is confirmed when the price falls below a support level, typically represented by the lowest point of the trough between the two peaks. In a Double Top pattern, the first top is usually created with strong buying pressure that pushes the asset to a new high, but eventually, the buying momentum fades, leading to a moderate decline, forming the trough. The asset then rises again, driven by optimism, but fails to surpass the first peak, forming the second top. At this point, the inability to break the previous high is a sign of waning bullish momentum, suggesting that a reversal may be imminent. Traders often look for a decisive break below the support level as a confirmation to enter short positions, with the expectation that the asset will continue to decline.
AMEX:USO
by AlgoTradeAlert
#USO STRADDLE/Trade PlanUSO Traders pay attention to this option sentiment/strategy The biggest one for USO we observed up to now. Based on our team's research of the options market, we expect buy activity at the support level or sell activity at the resistance. We primarily consider levels to be activity zones, but not to be a super-fine level for establishing a limit order. Use them in combine with your own strategy. We do the best research as we can to find new opportunities in the massive amount of information every day to help you make data-driven trading decision. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all!
AMEX:USO
by ClashChartsTeam
1
OIL STOCKS leading CRUDE OILWhat do you mean by a spread? A spread is a difference between two similar markets, in this case oil stocks and oil service companies versus the basic commodity that those oil companies trade in, which is crude oil. There is a substantial trade set up at the moment that presents large returns with a reasonable amount of risk. Shorting Energy Stocks using the $XLE ETF and going long oil with the $USO ETF. In the last two instances, it was $USO that was leading higher without $XLE to support the advance, and $USO collapsed to close the spread. See chart enclosed above. Why does this spread exist? We can point to political promises to "end the use of oil" that forced investors to reconsider the long term valuations of oil stocks. Investors don't typically "own oil" through oil futures, rather they own "oil in the ground" by way of oil companies. Risk $5-$10 in crude oil and 5%-10% in $XLE roughly. If one market moves more than 5% then we can look to increase the position and tighten the stops to break-even. There is no specific 'catalyst' to drive this pair back together at the moment. If the economy opens back up globally, then oil demand estimates will rise and cause people to buy oil futures. Opening up could also drive energy stocks higher too due to very high margins currently in the processing of crude oil into their refined products. The only risk in life is taking no risks. Nothing is without risk. Holding cash leaves you to be exposed to inflation and the loss in purchasing power. The rest of the disclaimers are standard legal ones. I have no positions in this trade yet, but will be considering them. A good way to manage risk is to use options in the form of spreads on both sides of this trade to define a maximum amount of risk in advance. Buying a call spread on $USO and buying a put spread on $XLE would serve to manage risk intelligently. The duration of this trade should be 3 months at maximum.
AMEX:USOShort
by timwest
11