USOLooks like a Butterfly. Price has be responsive to bands recently, so I do wonder if we'll flag for a few days before continuing upwards.
USO trade ideas
USOThe Gartley has a tight PRZ and the SHARK posted earlier has not met upside. Tricky here. If this area is lost look for MA support, then Crab. However, that SHARK may still want to fulfill.
Reducing risk buying into oil through derivativesWell as some have known, I've been salivating of the thought of getting ready to buy into crude oil once again (Last time I ever even thought of that during the early stages of summer 2014 Lol). Derivatives have notoriously had a bad reputation throughout many educational venues, and rightly so. In my belief, they play a crucial role in the reduction of std. deviation within an investment portfolio. Enough preaching though, well here is the trade I'm looking to take, clearly we can see that price is testing a resistance level around the $20.00 area, so an area where I will be looking to enter the position is on a retracement to the Daily 50 Moving Average support, and at the $16.20 area. Along with these positions I will be examining the options (derivative contracts) on the ETF. The position I'm looking to write covered calls at a higher strike to offset price risk I will be subject to in the near term.
Note: Yes there is talk over whether USO or UPL is better to buy, due to contango / backwardation, etc. But for me personally USO is the better buy due to the fact that the near / medium term forward contracts curve is steadily rising, leaving behind the state of backwardation that saw USO lose more value on a percentage basis then UPL. Roughly 12%-14% rise in the curve from this years May 15 Exp. to Feb17 2016 Exp. And with USO selling / purchasing near term contracts, it makes more sense for me to enter a fund rolling over on the month end contracts vs one purchasing contracts farther our in the curve. Once we reach farther our on the curve, I will examine which fund is a better investment. But other than that I'm confidently bullish on oil due to many fundamental factors (To many to write down).
Cheers =)
Disclaimer: I do not feel comfortable calling out trades that I will be taking through derivatives due to their level of risk. If you don't have a good understanding of them I suggest you grab yourself some heavy reading and study hard, and test them out in a demo account before going live with them.
USO 135 Drive PatternPerfect 135 Drive Pattern
Perfect Symetry
Perfect 1.618 Extensions
Low Risk Short IMO
USO short trde opportunity today 4/2/14WTI futures are weak heading into the market open. Expect WTI to regain some of the losses up until the market open, but will sell off the rest of the trading day. Trading the ETF USO, you have a nice Gartly pattern forming with support at the 16.50 level. This has good confirmation with the 707 retracements in the pattern. You can sell the USO, with a stop above 17.88 and a target of 16.40. Assuming an entry at 17.30 your risk / reward would be approximately 2.55 to 1.
USOA Shark is possible. This is a tough chart now with a good deal of resistance. I would not play this, but wanted to put it out there. I do think USO is due for a bounce and is UUP at least stabilizes and trades in a range, USO probably has a chance to move within it's range
CL1!, i smell a rat1st question:
USO vs Crude Oil, seems like no leader and they are twins? Meaning that they share the joys and woes together
2nd question:
USO has broke down its 2009 support while Crude oil has not even tested its 2009 support. What is going on here huh?
I smell a rat
USO: Three Key Fibonacci Projections/ExtensionsWTI Crude, and USO by extension, continue to hit and bounce and break through three key sets of Fibonacci projections/extensions. Overall sentiment is bearish. I Included the Fisher Transform, Vortex Indicator, and the Ultimate Oscillator as other relevant predictors of price action. I believe WTI and Brent are headed much lower, even to a 'one-day-only' $15 print in WTI.
USO Fibonacci Levels Support & ResistanceWTI Crude, and USO by extension, continue to hit and bounce and break through three key sets of Fibonacci projections/extensions. Overall sentiment is bearish. I Included the Fisher Transform, Vortex Indicator, and the Ultimate Oscillator as other relevant predictors of price action. I believe WTI and Brent are headed much lower, even to a 'one-day-only' $15 print in WTI.
Testing 2009 LowsInteresting price levels for USO which actually closed a few cents lower than 2009 lows. Continuation or a bounce? Looking for confirmation in either trade opportunity.
US oil observationAlthough i really try not to indulge myself in trades i deem biased - OIL that is manipulated to affect Russia IMHO. This was interesting to see.
- I had the blue trend lines plotted for quite some time already
- Drawing parallels from the tops showed also some relative hit ration with the price trending around them
- CCI ran away from RSI and already is diverging
- Of course, all bottom indicating indicators are ...indicating bottoms.
- With high volume in recent days, if a bottom is formed it may retrace to some important fib level,like 0.382 or 0.5 that sit nicely within some trend range
- theres also a gap there that hasnt been filled
Won't say im long,but i wont be shorting too much at this point either
US Oil ETF Poised for Bearish Break Out on Lower Oil Prices USO has sky dived from $120 (off the chart), on July 2008, to as low as $23 in Feb 2009, signaling a very clear bearish trend.
However from July 2009 until now, price has been consolidating sideways between $42 and $30, from July 2009 to June 2012. Subsequently, the sideways range narrowed to $39.40 and $30, from June 2012 up till now. All in all this sideways consolidation is has been going on for about 63 months now.
This is roughly a sideways Rectangle chart pattern, which is a pause in the bearish trend in , with a view to trade at lower prices.
We observed that the latest price action, starting from 2014-06-25, is a developing Elliott 5 Wave pattern, with the price poised to break out on the down side to complete the fifth wave.
Therefore we project that a bearish breakout is likely to occur, should price trades below $30.55 over the next few trading days.
Break Out Condition:
When price trades below 30.55.
Stop Loss:
Above 31.55
Taking Profit:
Take Profit Target will be around $27.20, based on the low of 2009-04-20.
Risk:
There is always a risk that this a false break out, with possible support buying around $30.00.
References:
Rectangle Chart Pattern> www.babypips.com
Elliott Wave> www.elliottwave.com
P.S. Sorry friends, I have not been writing new Ideas for a while, as I was working on my CMT Level 3 Exam.
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USO- Nice Little Double Bottom? Support at the least10-30 Nice little double bottom here that MAY be in the works.
Support zone at the least. Notice the standard AFTER the retest
of the lows how when it thus far launched it broke the downtrend
(green) to the upside? That is exactly what one wants to see.
For educational and informational purposes only
Trade at your own risk, These are not recommendations.
USO AT PAST LEVELS OF SUPPORT USO is at past levels of support based on long term Weekly timeframe and seems to be wavering on hourly chart.
Simple Reason Why Oil Will Bounce Here: Duh! (USO)Oil is taking a beating again today. While many bears are talking about oil going much lower in the next few weeks, it has likely bottomed. Why? Simply put, Russia and the middle east (Iran) will start some trouble to boost the price. Remember, 90% of their economies depend on oil. Just watch, something crazy will happen in the next 48 hours to stabilize and bounce oil in the near term.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
US Oil Short From Bullish Flag; High Risk:Reward RatioUSO has broken it's uptrend a few weeks back, and since has been heading violently lower with no signs of stopping, at least not yet. Not in my eyes. I had a plethora of converging indications, so I've marked them in the chart A - F, and then explained my trade setup. Good luck.
A) RSI has broken above the 35 level, but this is likely because it bounced a bit from being oversold. It remains below 50 which is a bearish indication and still has resistance at the 40 level.
B) The cream of the crop. B marks the head of a head and shoulders pattern in USO. You can see when the neckline was broken here, while simultaneously breaking a series of important EMAs, USO began it's slide. We would expect some sort of throw back to this neckline. This will be important in our trade setup later.
C) Here is our bearish flag and Andrew's Pitchfork. You can see the slight countertrend movement off the lower bollinger band, and what now looks to be a hanging man. This entire move up is hitting resistance in the pitch fork, as well as the flag formation, and has formed entirely on declining volume. That's not a positive sign for continued upward momentum.
D) PSZ (Prior Support Zone) from way back when. I'm expecting a move down into this zone where it will coincide with support at the lower BB or lower median pitchfork line. We may get a bounce down here, or more consolidation.
E) Volume Decline Throughout Bear Flag
F) Declining & Still Negative MACD
The one thing I didn't like here was the RSI, and that the weekly chart shows that we may need a throwback before extended downward momentum. This is where that neckline comes into play. We may very well see a throwback to the 66 area before we are awarded with any serious downside momentum. However the weekly RSI is also in a downtrend, reinforcing our bearish outlook. I'm short a directional diagonal on this play, to take advantage of Theta decay, and let oil slowly drift lower in my favor until we reach that prior support and I debate what the next play will be. More downside, or a retracement? Maybe a renewed uptrend? Who knows?
