Today's TUT - Understanding Friday's Option's expiry setupFriday's are an especially fun day for me because the market often gives you a nice little treat. That being the fact that quite often buying the Euro close and holding into the weekly options expiry can translate into a nice little stack of money for the weekend. Today's price action in USO (Crude Oil ETF) couldn't demonstrate the setup better. The market put in a very clean OTE long sweet spot tag (into the European close) and then reversed violently higher back up into the OTE short zone. Considering most Put options are written by institutions there is a vested interest for the institutions to take price out at/above a certain level. In this case, there was lots of incentive for them to take the market out above $36.50 and that is exactly what they did. Notice too, once the options expiry occurred, the original trend resumed lower.
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USO trade ideas
1hr USO - levels to consider trade setupsHere is a 1hr chart on the USO (Oil ETF). At the moment we are in a tough place. Neither at OTE long or short areas so atm I am not considering a trade setup. Should we get back up into the $37 area or down into the low $35 area I shall consider setups then.
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USO - Consolidation after bounceVery similar to CL1!, the oil ETF, USO, is basically consolidating after a nice bounce. Price here worked its way back up into the 37.50 area and is now working its way back into the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Long zone around 34.50. At the moment we appear to be in what I would consider a poor trade location area. If we are going to take risks we need to know where our 'I'm wrong' level is and putting a trade on at current levels would imply a very wide risk threshold.....hurry up and wait....
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Time to Short!The uptrend channel seems to end, it's now a good time to short with a good risk/reward ratio.
Our MACDBB still positive but did cross his lower Bolligner Band, so the short is valid.
The SuperTrend still positive, but it should change its polarity soon, and then act as a trailing stop.
Sell Stop around $35.89, target $33.86, stop loss 37.02
But beware, this is USA, very sensitive to major political and economical events, to be use with caution!
4hr USO - bullish ab=cd in a little more focusAs is the case on the daily CL1! we currently have a bullish ab=cd harmonic pattern well at work. The price target here ($36.24) appears to be right into a higher time frame OTE short window with the sweet spot being $36.14. I for one shall be watching closely for that level as it will mean a nice AOCO exit on the BoT long established from $34.56. As of Friday, 'stop to trail' level has been hit ($35.48) and one should act accordingly at this point - basically locking in a profit.
4hr USOThe battle between BoT and OTE raged for days it seemed and now we can clearly see BoT longs have surged to their 'stop to trail' level being hit (WTG BoT!). considering how we will soon be moving back into our 'Stupid Over-bought' territory with a move to our bull ab=cd target. Once hit I would be reluctant to be too bullish after that event.
Update: Arctic Cold Favoring Bears? | #USOil #WTIC #Brent #Oil Friends,
A quick "Tech-Note" on #USOil to indicate that the recent rally illustrated in this chart may have had the stomping sounds of bulls, but our system indicates quite the contrary.
In fact, ever since our "Dead-On Hit", a bearish reversal confirmation signal was produced, and we remain quite skeptic as to the ability for price to change that bearish qualifier for the time being. A push above 36.00 is always possible, but the resistance is quite solid at that level.
Instead, we keep our eyes on the bearish levels down below. In fact, we just produced a "Target-Low", TG-Low = 29.90, which marks a potential reversal level. In its path, the secondary target produced last October 28th might require some refinement, but we will keep it as is until price breaks the recent structure low.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad.com
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado USA
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$USO - Chart Update | #USO #USOil$USO - Chart Update | #USO #USOil
Last October 28th, we defined two distinct targets, namely: TG-1 = 32.96 and TG-2 = 31.60.
TG-1 = 32.96 was hit dead-on, while new structure lows have been carved out over the past 12 hours. TG-2 remains in sight, in force.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad.com
Better sell the bounceBooked profit at 1.62 extension, didn't wait for entire move as CNBC came with the highlight of daily technical for oil just had very bearish signal, MA 50 crosses MA 200. This has been very severe selling, I'd expect people would go short-covering next week. Will see if this fits to next sell. anyway 33-34 is very big support so better be careful than sorry.
Might targeting new low after the bounce but we'll see, if it fails breaking previous bottom if it doesn't I'd look to buy.
Bearish invalid if price violates 35.12
Oil Does Not Have As Much Downside As Experts Think $USOAfter the Iranian nuclear deal, analysts were all talking about how oil was headed much lower in the short term. Oil barely opened down today and is hovering at $33.74, -0.30 (-0.88%) on the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSEARCA:USO). While the lack of a major drop in oil was surprising to analysis and Wall Street traders, this was no surprise to me. Everyone knew a deal was coming over a month ago and oil has fallen almost non-stop because of it. Essentially, oil had already factored in the Iranian nuclear deal. In addition, oil is more a factor of global economic growth than one country putting out an extra 1 million barrels a day of oil. As economic growth starts to uptick in the coming months, oil should find footing.
I have a master level on the USO which is my buy price at $32.25. There should be a solid swing trade bounce at this before the longer term down trend continues.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com