USO - here we go!3:1 or more containment ratio. Had a break but probably not done. I’ll watch for break of 8 day MA of lows to short. Maybe not more than a day or two but I’ll take what it gives me.
USO trade ideas
USO - ouch at the pump!Well here we are at a 3.5:1 containment MA. Retracement soon likely. But remember a lot of the time just a quick retracement and continuation. Those shorting should not get married to the short position!
USO - up up and ???Blew through the 64 area zero slope MA. 71 area maybe the next equilibrium price area as that is the next zero slope MA up. Let's see what kind of headway we make and how quick over the next few weeks.
USO - which way will it go?Nearby upside pivot band. Distant downside pivot MA. Will still follow distant downside pivot. Some really bad economic numbers or other softness maybe we get a downside break. Certainly the proximate upside a possibility this week or following.
Oil - consolidation, higher or lower expectation?Well USO is trapped between containment MAs and beyond them release MAs (the furthest away MAs that can be drawn with respect to proximate price action). I'd take any of these signals in either direction. Let's see if this week offers clarity.
USO - right between the cycle pivotsUSO right between the short and long cycle pivots. Let's see what provocation we get to nudge it one way or another. Supply side shock? War? An unexpected number maybe Friday morning?
USO TOOK PROFITS ON MARKET ON OPEN TODAY The chart posted is now into over res at .382 and a 50 % from 64.90 to 65.30 I went 90 % net long at 60.00 even and now have exited the trade . Also my view in the spy and qqq was to have a nice peak due may9Th so I am nearing a major shorting position I just need a few hours in my models . best of trades WAVETIMER
USO - any provocation or none2:1 containment ratio with the MA of medians and 3:1 containment ratio with the MA of highs. The cycle median is about 3$ higher. I'll be a buyer preemptively and on a break higher as well.
USO - deja vu again?With USO down near where it was when OPEC throttled supply recently, will they do it again or something even stronger? With USO 11 days under the 8 day MA of median prices, a > 1:1 ratio, I am paying close attention to this market.
USO - up or down?Caught between the 30 high and 13 low MAs (zero slope) we will perhaps find direction sometime this week. Would take the trade either way.
Broad Markets Overview 20230421Better descriptions coming soon!
Apparently I need a longer description, this is from my live stream today.
USO Up or Down OIL ECOMONY in fluxAs certain countries want to exchange oil for money with anything but USD such as Chinese Yen
or even a cryptocurrency to be launched by US neutrals or adversaries cooperating, USO on
this chart rose dramatically over the past month and is now sitting at resistance as shown by
the LuxAlgo Supply and Demand Zone indicator. The RSI shows possible bearish divergence
perhaps heralding a reversal of the uptrend. I see this as a good place to take a short sell
entry and most buyers have taken their profits. Fundamentally there are enough competing
geopolitical and macroeconomic factors to deprive USO of the energy to push through resistance.
See also the link below from US federal forecasters.
I see this as a short trade at a limit price below the resistance zone and stop loss above it.
Profit targets can be the VWAP, the midline between the supply and demand zones as a 50%
Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend and finally one standard deviation below the anchored VWAP
making for a safe three-tiered take-profit procedure to optimize profit and diminish risk also
adjusting the stop loss at intervals using ATR as a guide. 40% at each of the first two targets
and the remainder at the last. Put options 20-30 DTE at the a strike above the resistance zone
for a good delta are another consideration.
USO presents 2 higher pivotsUSO horizontal 5 day MA of lows and envelope limit 5 day MA of highs point out two higher pivot levels.
USO (CRUDE) Bullish Bounce... something is up!Previously, it was observed and expected that Crude was to bounce. Instead, Crude made a dive down and out of the boxed range. For a moment, took a second take on the analysis and decided that it might have been a bit before its time, since the longer term pointed to two trends; crude to go up and USD to go down.
So, a chance came when USO triggered twice in the 15min chart ( system alerts set based on 15min intraday chart as a personal standard ).
It was a calculated risk and probability count.
USO/Crude had oversold, bounced off a couple of times, and broke our of a short term trend line. The Daily chart had a range breakdown, followed by long tails for the previous three days. It appeared to have a good probability of recovering.
A position was taken (USO 50 delta Call).
From there, we can observe the volatility (and hence you prefer to be in earlier and smaller position) and the development of the trade in the daily chart shows the opening of gap ups and closing of gap downs.
Furthermore, USO / Crude broke back into the range. And for such failures that recover and break back into range (orange and/or yellow box), there is a high probability of breaking out the other end. And yet other observations have the Fibonacci retracement bounce off the 50% to project a near term target of about 65.68 (150%).
All these are encouraged by the previous day's candlestick as Monday's candle gapped up and closed a previous gap down, and ended the day very near to intraday high. Daily technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) have crossed over and are starting a bullish alignment.(Noted that the breakdown out of the range did have a VolDiv bullish divergence that was very obvious, an early suggesting that it was going to bounce and recover.
Going forward, USO is starting to be overbought, and a possible pullback to head up further to near term target is expected. Could be more bullish or otherwise more bearish. but am expecting the range support to hold better this time.
USO: Forest Bathing 🌲🌳 🌲🌳Forest bathing can improve mental or physical health, as spending time in nature can reduce stress and pain and boost positive mood. The United States Oil Fund should take this to heart and set out for the lush composite consisting of the turquoise zone between $52.24 and $43.83 and the green zone between $46.36 and $40.29. Therefore, it should drop below the support at $63.00, which should provide further downwards pressure. Wave 2 in turquoise should then ideally finish just before the support at $45.30, changing into upwards movement afterward. It is also possible, though, that USO could climb above the resistance at $72.22 to expand the last low in the form of wave alt.b in orange first before heading downwards.
USO needs to bounce today or tomorrow or drop will be strongUSO was in a huge bullish pattern falling wedge. It break out of it several days ago but it simply can't move up further. If it drops inside the pattern it will be a dead hook or fake breakout and could be very bearish and fast. Volume on the drop confirmed price action which could be bearish for oil.
RSI is dropping but is still in a neutral area.
MOCD drop below the zero line and does not show sign of moving up.
Overall: OIL need to bounce today and break again from the trend line otherwise could be seen a nasty and strong drop. After its breakout the first time it found resistance at a high from December 2022 and wasn't able to move above it which is bearish for sure. It could find support on the blue trend line, but that support won't be for a longer time. Because of that it s got a sell signal which will be removed only if the price moved out of the falling wedge asap.
Head & Shoulders Top Completed, USO/SPXAccording to TA rules, the ratio has completed the pattern with a Complex Right Shoulder (two peaks).
Those these means that the SP:SPX should breakout from that downward trendline? I don't know, but probably.
Or those it means that energy stocks should finally follow oil prices? Maybe, it is what normally had happend.
What I'm seeing is more stocks going up, even though some breakouts aren't working as smooth as it should.
Nontheless, I just follow price.
This ratio is just another indicator, let's wait and see what happens.
USO: Rollercoaster 🎢USO got a wild ride ahead! We're expecting the course to drop further below the support line at $63 to finish the green wave 3 before rising up again to complete green wave 4. Subsequently, the trend should continue to sink into the turquoise trading zone between $52.24 and $43.83 in order to end the correction with the turquoise wave prior to heading back North and leaving the target zone.
USO (daily)(irregular flat towards 60.15 by 12/15/22)in this count is the irregular flat that breaks below support and than the herd rushes in after getting stopped out
USO (daily) (single ZZ towards ATH...3/22/23)this count gives us the possiblity that a single zig zag towards ATH round the end of March 23'
Watch for Reversal in $USO /CLMy dowsing has today (11/18) as a date for USO, /CL. It's pushed into my first target and when I get a combo of dates with a price target, there's HIGH ODDAS a significant retracement occurs.
Today was expecting to be down 4.5%, but I get to be short all day is profitable.
On the upside I get there is a 6 point move on the table. I may buy calls today or Monday. Dowsing says there is a long entry close.
USO to 89 in timemultiple harmonic patterns inside of each other that provide the structure for upside
indicators bullish with room to run
momentum clearly shifting here on oil
democrats getting voted out next week
liquidity grab from yesterdays biden announcement (you panic sell - they fill their orders and fill them cheap )
trendline breakouts etc
add on pullbacks
t1 2.4 reward/risk
83 / stop at 69
t2 3.75 reward/risk
89 / stop at 69
tracking recent trades
1-0 / +1.6% / SPY
will update this post when i exit this position
