Own USDT or BTC? Pt. 2This one has more confirmation that the trend has changed. We see the stochastic RSI and the MACD giving the same signal, which is to own USDT. How about the weekly?
UUP trade ideas
Own USDT or BTC?After a market move like this, it is important to ask yourself, did I raise enough cash? Has the short term trend (3 weeks or less) changed? So now we will look at the charts on a multi timeframe duration to decide where we need to be positioned. The chart we will be looking at is UUP/BTCUSD. UUP is an ETF that tracks the price of the USD. Sometimes it helps me to look at the chart upside down, but using a relative strength comparison is always better than just inverting the chart. Let’s have a look!
On the daily, the MACD can be used for the trend. MACD is showing that USDT is still looking to gain some strength back, so this is saying it would be more bullish to own USDT in the short term trend. There is also a gap in this chart that can be used as an upside target for USDT. However, the Stochastic RSI is showing that the short term trade (3 days or less) is tired and that BTC is looking to gain some ground back. If we see a higher low on the UUP/BTC price, we should use it as a selling opportunity, because that would confirm that the trend has changed.
#3 Liquidity crunch, another warningThe USD, reserve currency of the world, is about to breakout from a VERY LARGE wedge on the same day that volatility spiked with historical volume and 10 year bond yields started rocketing. Is this yet another red flag for investors? A rising USD is another sign of impending liquidity crunch, debt implosion and stock market crash IMHO. It might mean people are demanding cash and supply is short.
UUP Inverse H&S forming within channelUUP and DXY forming a descending channel +1.3% upswings, -1.7% downswings wide.
Inverse head and shoulders appearing, a touch between 25.03 and 25.08 sets up for a breakout entry, escape price 25.18, last key resistance 25.25
Getting long between 25.03 and 25.12, targeting 25.19 then 25.25. A break of 25.25, worth adding size to jump into the gap between 25.40 and 25.50, mature long range target at 25.90.
A drop @ 25 and it's worth waiting for support test at 24.90 before adding again.
Buying UUP dip @ RSI <30 on weekly candlesWith all the bearish sentiment surrounding the dollar index, I'm looking to be a buyer. We have a lower trendline @ 24.50 area, and the weekly RSI 14 is at 31.51.
In the past 14 years, every RSI level below 30 has resulted in a swing gain of 9%-25%, even if it didnt capture the bottom. Cost averaging improves the accuracy of the dip buying.
Lots of support at the 9 year fibonacci from the April 2011 low (ignoring the blowoff top from pre-covid bailout), 24.05 is a strong support level followed by the golden fib @ 23.30. 13 Year anchored VWAP coincides with the 61.8% fib as well, indicating a strong support level that dip buyers will target.
12% upside from the lower trendline to the upper trendline, at least 6% if a 50% retrace of the decline is in play. Long term trade.
Inverted Head and Shoulder? Load up on USDThe dollar has been hit very hard lately with all this money printing from the Fed but some argument support the theory that it will soar one last time before the true descent.
The stock market (SPY) is climbing its wall of worries. It will break new highs if not done already by the time you read this. But then when it corrects, bonds are going to soar and cash will be king for a short while.
First Target $27 but could soar well above that. I am loading on UUP September 18th calls. They are are cheap and it offers sufficient time for the plan to work itself out!
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
UUP Daily Diamond formation playing out.We need this would come given the FED keeps pumping. Now we are seeing it all play out.
UUPTrying a lotto long here. $26 strike calls any week in August are going for a few pennies. Got some last week and will add more tomorrow if it closes above the 5 sma. Target is $25.93
UUP - Medium Term Bullish / Short Term Neutral to BearishThe global juncture is US$ favourable.
Countries around the world have sold significant amounts of sovereign debt denominated in US$, Now facing deteriorating economies, these countries will find it increasingly difficult to repay their debts. US$ hoarding is the name of the game.
By end 2020 we should have a complete wind down of technicals and, perhaps, even a retest of the 2012 in the uptrend. But then, US$ hoarding should begin in earnest around US election time Nov/Dec.
Case for a weak US Dollar Four factors that typically influence the dollar’s direction have shifted from bullish to bearish since the onset of the coronavirus crisis:
1) FOMC has shifted to a zero-rate policy
• US interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are negative
• Growth expectations have slowed while inflation expectations have risen… sending Real Interest Rates down
• Fed sharply increased access to U.S. dollars through its swap facilities with other central banks, increasing the supply of dollars in the global economy and enabling greater access to dollars to a wide set of economies at lower cost.
2) US Growth likely will underperform other major economies due to COVID
a. The slow U.S. response to the coronavirus crisis has altered expectations about economic growth relative to major country peers. Outbreaks in Europe and China appear to have peaked, while in the U.S. cases are still rising. Consequently, the U.S. economic recovery is likely to take longer, with higher unemployment and weaker consumer spending.
b. The European Union’s recovery fund marks a step toward greater mutualization of debt (combination of debt across Europe Union)—a factor that can reduce the perception of risk around the euro currency.
c. Recent purchasing managers index (PMI) data suggest that the U.S. economic rebound is leveling off while growth is rising in most other regions.
3) Political uncertainty has risen
a. Rising tensions between the U.S. and China
b. Upcoming presidential election, make the outlook for the U.S. less certain. With less clarity about the direction of policy or its implications for the economy and regulations, foreign investors may begin to shy away from U.S. investments.
c. While the US dollar is still a safe-haven currency in times of global turmoil, in the absence of a crisis, the outlook for other countries looks more predictable.
4) Increasing US budget deficit will need to be financed with foreign capital
a. Historically, a rising budget deficit has often been a leading indicator of dollar weakness.
b. Because the U.S. is a net debtor nation, a rising budget deficit needs to be financed with foreign investment.
UUP bounce off supportPart of the recent rally in SPX could be attributed to the declining dollar. It looks like today we have bounced off a support line and are constricted with a downtrend line. In conjunction with the selloff today I expect there to be an increase in demand for dollars. So I am looking for a move perhaps to 25.50-25.75.
UUPRally time for king dollar? Could form right shoulder putting it around $27.00 by mid July. Would also test channel breakdown at that level.
$UUP #UUP Channel BounceExpect a bounce to $27. You can buy short term in the money options for next to no premium. Not financial advice, so punt away
UUP next week setupCorrelation is not causation, but we have seen this pattern three times before for long then short positions (again!)
Dollar to 124when the hell is this rocket gonna take off?
the fed bozooka keeps ckblocking this rise...
the sooner this rises the sooner it will crush the markets... that is how these these charts are forecasting...
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Long Dollar Dollar Billz YallNot trading or investing advice!
Buy: 27.30
Stop: 26.00
Target 30.75
Risk Reward: 3/1
My trade idea is to buy the breakout of the inverted head and shoulders and sell at the target. Use 2 year moving average/ lowest close of right shoulder for an asymmetrical risk reward stop, or use the bottom of the right shoulder wick for a more conservative but less asymmetrical stop point.
