$dust $tmv $jdst $kre $kbe U.S. Dollar Index (no position)U.S. Dollar Index Chart requested from StockTwits $dust follower
UUP trade ideas
US Dollar Index (DXY): Continued Weakness ForecastI was reviewing a chart for DXY. An impulse wave was completed on April 12, 2016, and the trend continues lower. I then used UUP as a proxy for DXY, because these are the bullish US Dollar Powershares. The pain trade is to anticipate going long. I think DXY will continue lower.
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. This is Don's personal "TRADE-MAP" approach.
The following information (my interpretation of the above chart) is for UUP . Here are "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING relative to structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving LOWER and is BELOW the Ki jun-Sen baseline (very negative). 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING DOWN. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is heading lower.. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is WEAK, and it just FAILED A ZERO LINE CROSS-OVER ATTEMPT and returned to the negative direction (generally a powerful down signal). 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $24.40, by the large red arrow. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (lips), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are OPENED, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a FEEDING alligator, and the alligator will feed in a down-trend. This is a negative indication and suggests lower prices.
Here are more indications of DXY (UUP) weakness:
Prices FAILED at all Fibonacci circles. The price tried to rally at Circle Fib 1.618 (March 20th, from bottom of the trend line), but this failed. Prices followed the Circle Fib 1.618 for six days, then failed. Last Friday the Circle Fib 2.618 was breached, and this forecasts more weakness. As for the regression trend-line:
When I was in quality engineering we used statistical process control (SPC). We plotted readings on a control chart (similar to the regression trendline). Walter Shewhart (Bell Labs, 1925) taught the world that multiple readings on either the top or bottom of the control chart are NOT random. With non random readings you search for an assignable cause. (This is how I got my start in financial charting back in 1983). So, in a nutshell, I think DXY heads LOWER.
I would like to close today with two "dollar quotes".
The first quote is from Orrin Woodward: “Dollar bill: people spend their whole life seeking to earn it, but won't spend 10 minutes seeking to learn it.”
The second quote is from yours truly: “The value of your work is not in the dollar. It's in your word.”
I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. I hope it saves you money. May all of your trades go well. Don.
$UUP - 4hr Chart We have a potential double bottom at 24.09, if t's the bottom. Open gap at 23.96, so I suspect we fill it and overshoot to the .5 fib at 23.89..
$UUP / $SPX - RelationshipCritical level for the dollar at support. If support breaks, catalyst for ATH's. If holds, very bearish scenario. BOJ move was very interesting last night; however, I believe the pop was a supply test for the Yen and now the dollar is ready for mark up.. I expect the USD to take out the previous high..
$UUP - WeeklyThis chart has my attention. Finding support at the .764 trend fib ext and is basing. Moreover, we see looking back that S1 usually marked the bottom.
CCI oversold and turning up with RSI again finding support back to old level. CMF is also another key. You can clearly see, every time it bottoms, marks a move up.
I would expect a move up in the dollar - about now at least to 25.42 area.
U.S. Dollar Index (UUP) Weakness: Part 1 Of 2The USD looks weak after a long uptrend. Using UUP as a proxy for U.S. Dollar strength or weakness, the chart above has a decided negative trend. Note: The UUP underlying currencies are Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. As for UUP: To help you understand why I feel prices are going lower, here they are, "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING relative to structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading WAY BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving LOWER. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING DOWN. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic, and this is weak as the price trend sinks. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of UUP, and this is VERY WEAK. 9. The red fractal arrows are DOWN. 10. Look to the far lower right on the chart, around $24.80, by the large red arrow. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (jaws), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are WIDE OPEN, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws of a FEEDING alligator, and the alligator will feed in a down-trend". This is a negative indication and suggests lower prices. I believe UUP will continue to go lower until the confluence of technicals tells me differently. This is Part 1 of 2 in this series. Part 2 is the inverse chart for UUP and this is UDN (which will rise as the USD falls). I hope this has been entertaining and informative. Yours for better trading, Don.
USD 3/30/2016It seems it's getting somewhat harder to simultaneously protect both equity and currency. But from having an easy time protecting both (since first announcing rates normalization due to having enough recovery) to having too difficult of a time protecting both to a point where enough price-insensitive selling occurs in either market to cause serious trouble, where is that point>? Maybe it is that the more obviously the lady chooses either, the closer that point is?... Attached is a USD chart
Dollar -approaching resistance Short term uptrend meets long term downtrend at resistance area. I think it will turn back down soon.
USD heading southMany might think USD's recent breakdown is transitory. But the thing is, the only way to temporarily prop up USD is to hike the FFR, which will sink stocks, which will likely force more QE, which then in turn will sink USD. On the other hand, if not propped up by the tightening of money supply, every USD drop is equivalent of a market rate hike - because you have to charge more interest for debt issued in a sinking currency. Keynesianism is full of such impossibilities conflicting one another, especially at the end of a Keynesian boom.
US Dollar index threatening to break long-term trendline!The us dollar index is threatening to break the long-term trendline that has supported price action since the bottom on May, 2014. Except for a few brief instances this trendline has served as life support for the entire rally, and a meaningful break of this trendline would have significant implications for commodities and currencies. Oil and the Canadian Dollar, (FXC) are already signalling the imminent break of the dollar's support with their recent bottoming action. (see my other chart on oil bottom). Other sectors to watch for possible trades would be the CRB index, OIH, XLE, DBA, DBC, DBE, as well as Gold , Silver, and currencies, especially the Canadian Dollar. The other scenario that could be in play is a cup and handle formation in the dollar. This is a less likely scenario given all the supporting evidence in the price action of correlated markets, but still a viable outcome that would portend higher prices in the Dollar near term. The next few weeks will prove to be critical for commodities and bears watching closely.
US$ Dollar, where are you going?Check the Flag pattern out, above 26 is a continuation of US$. Below the red line, I will revaluate it, no positions yet
UUP Technicals Hi, this is my first post.
Sharing my view of US Dollar Index DXY threw UUP, where options can be trade.
I would suggest to be careful entering long at this point because of the followings:
1-Weekly chart Hanging Man (signal potential reverse of bullish trend)
2-ATR signalling we might be reversing trend in 4H chart (top yellow circle)
3-MACD lines crossed on 4H chart , also on Daily and 2Days
4-CMF divergence in 4H and is under zero (negative flow), Weekly chart CMF = 0.48, with maximum value of 0.50, Weekly MFI = 83.6 (overbought signal)
5-RSI Weekly chart at 81.2 (overbought signal)
6-Monthly chart touched RSI_BAND top band (overbought signal)
7-CCI touched (-100) + (potential reverse signal of momentum)
8-Stochastics Monthly chart is in overbought territory
9-We are at resistance
10-The look of this chart (personal)
Feel free to comment on my analysis.
Enjoy !
UUP Monthly - Major moving average confluence for $DX_F ETFMonthly chart for the US Dollar index ETF is currently about to have a major crossover of the 10/20/50 MONTH moving averages. Currently they are basically on top of each other at the $22 level.
Price is riding the upper monthly Bollinger Band and the bands are flaring away from each other which shows the strength in the move and tells of expanding volatility.
The presumption shown from this chart is that the US Dollar will continue to show long term strength and until proven otherwise should be played from the long side against other currencies.
Head and shoulders pattern is almost formed.The nearest support is far enough. Support level coincides with the level of complete correction. The sequence of waves indicate a short position.
