:(It's not looking good, I lost a lot of money and I'm sad :(
Who knows what will happen next but my prediction is that VOO will go either up down or sideways.
VOO trade ideas
Never time The Market, right?When it comes to your long term portfolio, please Dollar Cost Average into the S&P 500. Which I will explain how to in detail in my next post.
However today I just want to show a small swing trading strategy theory I will try for fun. The reason I prefer the idea of swing trading is because it requires you to set your candle sticks to 4h,1d, or sometimes even 1 week. This is good because the more time range each candle stick has the more significance a simple trading pattern will have. In other words trend lines (support/resistance) will be respected.
Its very difficult to trade with the market average unless you have a significant amount of capital, and even then your better off on other investments/trades. That's what got my head on option trading; this is a high risk and high reward form of trading. You either lose it all or you make a big return (rough explanation). All this being said that's why I think the S&P 500 is the perfect environment for option trading. I believe if you call/put when the candle hits the trend line you will almost always win; and for breakouts you can wait for the re-bounce.
Please let me know what you think!
ETFs and rising concerns (TL;DR at end)ETFs are by far the most popular form of investment, regardless of whether you are a parent saving up for your child's college or you're a multi-millionaire/billionaire banker, a good portion of your investments will be in exchange traded funds, regardless of whether that fund is for commodities, industries or indexes.
Since their first implementation in the 1990s, they've have grown rapidly as seen in the thumbnail of this idea ( AMEX:VOO ). In the words of Mr. Buffett himself, there is only one problem with index funds: "they're boring". You can't stand with your friends on the weekend at the barbecue and talk about all the trades you've made in response to crazy market action because you've got some fund manager who just holds the stock of everybody worth holding (in theory). All you do is put more money into it, or take money out of it.
However, recently I came to the realisation (like many other investors), they're becoming ludicrously priced. Not just the individual price but the overall market cap with companies like Blackrock and Vanguard holding quite conceivably hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars within ETFs. Now there are concerns regarding a potential crash in the ETF market or at least the funds that trade through indeces. As far as the cause of such crash, I wouldn't dare attempt to make some degree of educated guess as anything could happen. One may consider me rather cynical when it comes to this topic but I'm sure I'm not the only person who has a problem with losing money.
Now there is absolutely nothing one can do about a crash but there are other solutions to minimise losses especially in a market that is trading so dangerously high. I would personally (assuming I had the financial capacity) take out around 60-75% of my overall investments in ETFs and transfer them to AAA rated state issued bonds or simply reinvest the money in stocks I already hold. Then I would continue my regular dollar cost averaging approach to investment in ETFs (or whatever the frequency is that you add money to such funds) until such a crash may occur. At a given point, (depending on the fund and how severe the crash is) I would increase the frequency and amount of money I add to such funds as the price drop should cause them to appear very attractive. Understandably, many people will disagree with this approach as you are still setting yourself up to lose money (unless you remove all your money from the funds, while you still could potentially continue earning. This results in the investor being left in some sort of dilemma. Although this is another discussion for another day) and "past performance is no indicator of future results" but this is the approach I would take.
As usual, other opinions, facts, news and comments are always welcome so comment away and stay safe!
TL;DR: ETFs are trading very high in price (dangerously) and a potential crash is luring (if you have a cynical outlook).*
*See the last paragraph on what I would do, due to such a situation being upon us.
Daily Chart out of UptrendI believe VOO (S&P500) is out of the Uptrend (Daily TF) it has maintained since the Feb 2020 Crash for the following reasons:
1. Broke ~1 year trend line (Yellow trend line)
2. Broke under previous HL on Daily (orange region ~$401)
3. Failed to make HH on Daily (above green region ~$417),
4. Failed to make it back into uptrend channel
5. Rejected by 50MA and consolidating/moving under
Price action could go up to retest the trendline, but my guess is we are in distribution stage now unless we can break about $417.
Further confirmation of loss of uptrend seen by printing of Lower highs (below $417 and $408 levels) on the daily chart. We have the 200MA as support, currently at ~$380.
It's also possible that price action is about to break neckline of Head and Shoulders pattern (on Daily).
Short term bulls and buy the dip people, I'd like to hear your ideas.
Crash?With the worries of the FOMC, inflation, supply chain many have marked this as the dooms day event. I'm here to list the reality of this thesis.
Enjoy
Will it keeps pushing higher until the end of the month ?From a 15 min timeframe perspective.
Kind of bullish to me for the next week.
We'll still need to validate that new support line as a rock solid one.
We still need to be carfull of the gaps that popped at the beggining of the April run.
Thanks for you support and feel free to comment your ideas.
S&P 500 trend lines and ending patternsJust something I noticed today. Drew up what look like to be the key trend lines for the rallies over the last few years. I also noticed that each rally had a similar wave pattern throughout the middle (12345), a long almost pull back free middle, and then a WXZ with 1.5 fib ext at the end. Now, it is still too early to know if that pattern will hold now, but this down week does lend some credence to the idea.
Note that this in on the Vanguard S&P ETF, so the numbers are not perfectly aligned with the SPX or SPY.
2018
2019
2020
2021 at 4h
Hope it helps.
384 is the end of the gamewe could have a strong negative divergence. is it the sign of a slide in the stock market?
$VOO SHOWING WEAKNESSAfter a nice bull run, some were taking profits today. We started the day with heavy selling, some shares were bought back later in the day. The market hit the resistance and we might see some weakness until friday.
Or a rebound ! Who knows :')
Happy trading.
VOO Daily - BUY THE DIP KIDS$VOo -LOOK AT THIS CHART. WOULD YOU JUST LOOK AT IT!
Im posting VOO because it is one of my favorite long term investment holds. Every portfolio should have some Vanguard funds in it, and especially should have the VOO . But look at this. Look at the dip and rip from March 2020. Its now up almost 80%. And it will be up 80% soon.
Don't freak out because of a dip.
Buy when others are scared. Sell when others are greedy.
S&P 500 Wave Count - End of Wave 3?Waves based on fib levels. I am assuming that we are in a Wave 3 showing an impulse with extension. Could push from 1.618 to the 1.7 level to end wave 3. I hope that we will see a correction for wave 4, but wave 4's are usually less then 38.2%. If so then we still have a solid wave 5 to go. Guessing at a standard 2.0 extension to wave 5. I also see a clear channel that if you center the mid-line it nicely aligns with the 2.0 fib level.
Waves are more art than science, so take it with a grain of salt.
Major fib and waves
Close up
VOO Technical AnalysisVOO has been very volatile and this recent drop could be a perfect time to buy for the long term
VOO - LongI must disclose that I am a VOO long-only trader.
New long opportunities might be found at MA50 or bull trend.
RSI converges and Stochs are overbought, leading to possible bulls exhaustion within the next month.
Vanguard S&P500 ETF (VOO): A Full Recovery Approaching?On the 27th May 2020, we saw the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (Symbol: VOO) rise above the 200 Moving Average. Today a share is worth 301.99. Before the tremendous drop on 20th Feb 2020, prices closed at a high of 311.39. The fact that we are already above the 300.00 mark and only just 9.40 from its pre-COVID high, has VOO really recovered? Nevertheless, it is still a worthy investment considering its performance since it started on Sept 7 2010. It is also outstanding how it managed through COVID this well. It will probably be a long time (excluding market noise) before it formally hits such low prices again.
$VOO Demand at 233$VOO has seem some great gains in the last couple of months. I've identified some demand at 233. Price has yet to return to this level since rallied from it. Could be a good buy at this price.
