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VTI trade ideas

VTI Enters the 'Stubborn Stage' of a Possible Reversal US indices and most stocks are now trading at areas that make little rational sense for them to remain at without there being big corrections. The questions at this point are when and how big are the corrections to be. VTI is trading slightly above the 1.61 projection of the 2018 fall. Above this area is where I get most interested in selling, but it is also a point that can produce quite a lot of selling risk as price moves can become more stubborn. Unsophisticated buys will continue to enter the market, they make the fundamental mistake of thinking because everything is higher it is worth more, of course usually it is just more expensive. The risk for sellers here come in the forms of grinding up moves with various fake reversals and also in parabolic spike moves to the upside. Both of these means early selling has to be lighter with good stop loss controls. If stops are used well and losses are capped then multiple attempts at selling higher prices can also be taken. The less risky alternative here is to wait for a break back under 170 and then build up shorts into the nearer term downwards momentum. I think upon selling price break back under here, we'll see the end of the US bull market. I'm now starting to hunt out stocks I can sell high that are likely to suffer liquidity shocks on the way down by being heavily over traded in ETFs. If these things start to fall quickly, ETF owning bundles of stocks are going to see investors wanting out, and in turn they're going to have to go to the primary market and hit all the asks for the stocks. Many of these stocks are trading thinner volume in the primary market than they are in the secondary market of ETFs. To put this simply, it means someone is going to want to sell 100 times more of a stock than anyone usually buys, and an absolute this is going to be at a time the stock is in an absolute mess, so no one wants it. When there is not normal liquidity in the market, the short fall for this is going to have to made up with market makers. They will not blindly buy in the style we've seen stocks bought up to this point. For them to take on the risk (which they will be obligated) they will want to take prices to where they can do buy/sell business (limit their risk). This means a stock might be currently trading at $20, but the market maker won't take the risk on anything above $15. What happens then? Since the market maker is the only buyer there, the ETF has to hit the ask - they sell a stock trading $20 for $15 and there is a big gap in the market. The above is what Dr Burry talks about when he refers to passive investing as a bubble. At some point there are going to be more volume of sell orders hitting the market than there are buyers (in typical volume of trading) to meet them. When this happens the sellers have to take any offers they can get, and they will get them only from those who have to give them offers and will do so on their terms - which will not be at 'moon prices'. These will be at heavily discounted prices. Gaps in the market are bad. Generally they scare smaller investors. They remove risk control from big investors and may trigger margin calls in some cases. With margin calls happening, this cycle of sellers having no choice but to hit any ask, and market makers having no choice but to provide offers to buy lower than the current market price. This can lead to more bigs moves down and maybe even more gaps which can feed upon itself. This is going to hit the passive investing marketplace like an earthquake, and this earthquake will quickly shift over to the primary market where it starts to do real damage. It then will cause a series of predicable aftershocks that will lead to heavy sell offs in all stocks and the worst in the more thinly traded ones. Some of the thinly traded companies may well have trouble surviving the onslaught of their stocks being bought up more than they should have been and then suddenly dumped into the market maker only markets. Insolvency will become a real risk as this develops.
AMEX:VTIShort
by Bear2020s
1
We've reached extreme highs - what next?My custom indictor is suggesting we've reached a zombie new high in the general markets and this indicator has reached highs equal to levels near December 2017. My interpretation of this peak is that the market could continue to try to push a bit higher - but overall this level has historically been an extreme overbought level and the markets have typically corrected from these highs. What next? If you are long this market right now, keep your stops fairly tight and get ready for a violent reversal in the near future. If you are flat, stay that way until we see some type of technical rotation in price. If you are short, you are likely taking a bit of heat on your position and my gut tells me we could see a repeat of November/December 2018 in 2019. Remember, price dictates what is likely to happen and this rally to the upside in the NQ is technically a NEW HIGH. Thus, the trend is bullish until we see some type of price rotation. I still believe a price rotation will happen before the end of 2019. In fact, I can't believe the markets are in zombie mode for this long. Be prepared
AMEX:VTIShort
by BradMatheny
5
Could it happen THAT QUICK?What do you think? For any of you that follow my research, you'll understand that this chart (including the projected down arrow) would indicate a complete collapse of the Global captital markets and present a "washout" of valuations across the world. Could it happen - you bet. Will it happen - unknown at this time. My research suggests a down trend will happen in the US and global markets before the end of 2019 (as my super cycle research has predicted). My research also suggests the US stock market will be one of the safest places on the planet to invest going forward. Therefore, are you ready for a wild ride? One that may never happen again for another 75+ years? If you want to know what my thoughts are about this, then follow my research more closely and stay away from Cryptos. Put your money into Metals instead.
AMEX:VTIShort
by BradMatheny
4
VANGUARD Index Can Explode By 2020We can see the reverse head&shoulders formation started in January of 2018 has been now completed the first shoulder and head. Right now, we are in the beginning phase of second shoulder formation. Most probably by January 2020, reverse head&shoulders formation will be completed and the value will test 162 which is the resistance of uptrend started in 2018. Also it will be the new ATH and than we can see some correction to 154 support line (which is ATH for now). RSI is also approving the upmove of the Vanguard Index value.
AMEX:VTILong
by Emrut