VXX - Key level is next 3D VWMA (60) has been tested only once since Sept 01, 2020 and it retraced on Dec 02, 2021 (market with arrow) Negative divergence on the price. All suggest months of pain ahead - UNLESS it is rejected and they keep smashing VXX below 26. Longby CheelooTraderUpdated 0
VXXIntraday Report Looking for a SPY bounce? For that to happen VXX must break below 24.60 support level. A break below will give a good bounce for market.by pravenmoorthyPublished 1
VXX is my biggest playVXX has two gaps to fill, the highest being at $103. My target is $180 which is where the descending Fib Retracement began and historically where each major upward move returned to. Not financial adviceLongby FiboTrader1Published 664
VXX: Expecting a potential major moveHistory has a tendency to show us patterns which can make trading much simpler if you know what to look for. As I've said before, we finished a wave 5 of 5 from the bottom of 2009 which to me tells me we are about to head into the biggest recession of my lifetime. Now, I don't pretend to be a fortune teller or foresee the future, but I do tend to rely on the past to better predict the future of the markets. So based on all of this, I have found a pattern in VXX that I found interesting. As the chart shows, during the course of the last 5 years, VXX has made some interesting patterns which shows that around the same point in Fib retracements during the most volatile times since 2017, right before those events VXX sat around the same junction just above the 2.618 Fib retracement level. If this pattern were, to say, repeat itself again, you're looking at VXX returning to the point where the first peak of the downward move began or beyond which would place the VXX at $183. Now I'm sure some of you are looking at this and saying I'm crazy and maybe I am, however, I like patterns and fibs and if there are two things that have proven to be true in the markets its patterns and fibs. Not financial adviceLongby FiboTrader1Updated 444
VXX - Arb Low into New ATL's for 2022 @ 17.30We are buyers of the Implied Lower Targets. VXX is our preferred Instrument as it is the 30 Day Constant Maturity. Trade Plan Buys on Inverse Ladder: 18.45 18.01 17.55 17.3 16.58 16.14 15.78 15.42 We'll hold our nose for: 25.24 27.41 28.87 30.05 31.23 32.69 35.06by HK_L61Published 4411
VXX - 4 Hour / 17.55 LostRetest Lows and fail appears to be in trade into Friday. VX Complex is being taken to the Woodshed again. No reason to Buy, no real reason to Sell. ________________________________________________ Meandering. Wandering. _________________________________________________ Low to Low Draws is becoming a horror show. by HK_L61Published 11
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 7 Jan Expiry (Jan Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I entered the trade because the volatility was high and the premium was good. But because of this I did not do the Mindfulness exercise before entering and broke my rule. This being a Call was a more bullish take on a market that at the moment felt like it was bearish ranging. However I entered because the Strike was 60.34% away and had good premium. Also the 3 Dec showed a solid rejection from the S/R line at 28.5. I expect the situation to stabilise or slow down after both Omicron and Fed Interest rate situations I Feel I’m doing this after the fact. So looking at the recent market drop on the 20 Dec I feel less confident. But I am comforted that this trade will end fairly quickly on the 7 Jan. Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side All of my other trades for the month of Jan will be bearish. And as such I do feel somewhat anxious. Which is not right. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer I rushed this and I am not confident Look For New Information Omicron infections are rising at an exponential speed and this will result in knee jerk reactions. But this might already be priced in. How Do I Feel Now Hoping for the best and I don’t like it. I must not do this rash trading again. No matter how good the premium looks Trade Specs Sold 90 Calls @ 0.81 - Strike 35 % to Strike 60.34% ATR % is 100% BP used 78k Max Gain: est $7290 Shortby Ronin_traderUpdated 110
VXX - Bares ObservationAfter a one tick front tun of our PO @ 17.55, signs are growing positive. The ES remains in Distro - it is mild, but has the potential to expand as NQ BANK / Financials have filled their Gaps. We should VX begin to perk up in January, there remain far Larger VIX targets for VXF to the 15.25s. _______________________________________________ We'll be buying when this begins to perform and hold the lows. For now, we patiently await a better structure. by HK_L61Published 336
VXX - Arb Low into New ATL'sNot ready for Prime Time, but then with Lower Objectives below and Daily Lows day after day with lower Yearly Lows... It is beginning to look as if the VFX could trade into the 15s at this rate - currently 19.05. Volatility continues to be beaten with the Ugly Stick. ___________________________________________________________ There has not been a Retacement exceeding the .382 in 10 days with 1 and only 1 exception. A new streak for the VX complex. The Fed's mercurial puncture wounds continue to press and with CASH @ 17.15 and 15's in sight, one wonders how off base this will trade given the enormous Risk profile Globally. by HK_L61Published 557
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Market Bullish Stance The overall market seems to be back on it's bull run. This is reflected on the SPY and NDX who have both made new highs Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4% Sep Personal income was up 0.9% These factors, including the upcoming festive year end period. With less COVID19 restrictions should result in an increase in consumer spending with an appitite to accept raising prices (At least for this quarter) Est price to strike is around 54% which is a pretty good buffer and is around it's previous high. This is shielded by an S&R line at 28.5 I Feel Confident and safe I'm happy with the risk profile and it is also 50% hedging my RVLV trade Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side We could be at the bottom and a retracement is a possibility at least short term We expected Nov's market to be bearish volatile so this bullishness might be short term Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer Strike to price distance seems safe If we read the market for what it is now. It is bullish While some volatility might come as we close Dec due to the US debt ceiling Look For New Information US debt ceiling implications and the upcoming review date on the 3 Dec will cause some market volatility. For now while the country has a short reprieve from the threat of default, Yellen said some investments in funds through December 3 will remain suspended How Do I Feel Now Ready to enter! Trade Specs Sold 70 Calls @ 0.40 - Strike 30 % to Strike 46% ATR % is Around 12% BP used 65k Max Gain: est $2800 Shortby Ronin_traderUpdated 1
VXX - Interesting VX ParticipationNothing to see here and that may well be the indication. Implied Volatility is unhinged: FEB 18 2022 CALL 17.00 - 75.59% 18.00 - 84.90% 19.00 - 92.54% 20.00 - 99.91% 21.00 - 107.26% 22.00 - 112.79% 23.00 - 117.91% 24.00 - 123.21% 25.00 - 128.10% 26.00 - 131.70% 27.00 - 135.50% ______________________________________________________ Clearly, the VXX believes the market has outsized potential for large price swing. With the Prems High, the underlying will be the better Position. Gap Below, Gaps Above for VXX. by HK_L61Published 227
VXX - Nuked / Larger Daily EXT to 17.55UGLY NASTY CRUSHED VX CASH / SPOT SMOKED VXF SMOKED CURVE SMOKED ______________________________________________________ They will accumulate FEB / MAR. JAN 20.15 FEB 22.25 MAR 23.63 APR 24.76 Objective for 30 Day CM @ 17.15 - And I'm struggling to believe that Price Objective. by HK_L61Updated 666
VXX - New LowsVX Complex wrecked again will provide an opportunity for RT. Too early in the VX Cycle to Bid here without further Downside Risk. If it can sustain the Lows and Hold, we begin to see a VX Curve Flatten. ________________________________________________________________ Gamma Squeeze failures are keeping the protection Bid muted. While profit-taking remains the sell in 7/11. Hopefully, they let the foot off the gas there as a squeeze would be welcome. BUying low ticks in NQ and NYSE has been the way to trade it as the ALGOS are just running the MIcro Ranges off the Hourly.by HK_L61Updated 338
Vxx I have a strong feeling that, the Vxx is going to me making it way upwards in the coming months. It just an Idea ....I'm just saying.by bjmnazarioprUpdated 3
VXXoversold & signs for a recovery.. rising volatility is now problem for the market - SPY made a slightly new ATH. normaly we should see a fight between bulls & bears here. if the bears win -a bigger rise would be normal. otherwise a rangebound trading with no clear st trend leads also to a rising vola.. by rondoinvest21Updated 2
VXX - Trending Cloud FailureAfter early Entry failed, SOH became the operation. Unable to Push through the Trending Cloud proved to be the warning sign. It was correct, and we were frankly lucky to have done nothing as it was difficult. ______________________________________________ Patience won that round as it wins about every round. I can't imagine the misery there, as the 120 Minute reversal was surreal in nature, an 11.5% Nike Whoosh Buzzsaw. A full retracement is underway. Volatility was crushed, beaten with the Ugly Stick as the Raven went full Edgar Allen.by HK_L61Published 447
VXX - No Break of Trending CloudWe are cautiously observing the 30 Day Constant Maturity Short End Curve. We've seen 2 Taps of the Daily Trendline and a move above, with successive Higher Highs. For 2021 the Full .500 was exceeded. The 55 SMA, on balance, is acting as Support. At present, the ES is holding up better than Tech, by no large margin, but on balance, better as the NQ continues to grind lower, making successively lower lows, the ES continues to pivot around and now below the 4616 Level. Unable to break through the Trending Cloud has us on the sidelines for now, subject to immediate change should the Trend Cloud be broken. At this juncture, we prefer confirmation as opposed to taking the trade, positioning early @ 21.785 was a mistake, as there were lower entries. In addition, there is no reason to chase at this point in time. This is what remains the signal for entry and we've committed to SOH last Friday for the VX Complex as there is time and although our bias may be down due to larger indications... we've seen far too many unexpected reversals at times where the duck, dodge, dip, dive, jive tribe has managed to pull unexpected and unwarranted Dwight Goodman moves. 126 minutes to go until the Raven unloads, the FED will update the Dot Plot today. Although we believe Higher is the path... we'll let it prove out. It has not as of yet. Patience by HK_L61Updated 227
VXX LONG (SPY RSI Dropping Fast)The SPY's RSI is dropping and the VIX RSI is rising. VIX is up almost 4% today!Longby mthompson45Published 330
VXX - Abandoned Ship2.14 P/C at present which should peak near 2.24. Many Traders believe the FED will Punt. We do not. The VIX itself, being left for dead during a rollover. Meanwhile, CALLs are selling at 354% to 427% prem to PUTs. ____________________________________________ INdices are rallying, as they do ahead of the FED. Money Flows are positive into Equities, into Protection we are back to extremely negative. Captial continues to Slosh around while Executives at the 7 continue to Sell Shares - MSFT is a solid example where One ETM sold 50% of their shares. _____________________________________________ The Weekly Charts remain our point of reference for rejection, were it to expand the Channel, then it is an entirely different conversation. An over-throw is possible. ______________________________________________ As Divergences continue to build on the Larger TFs we will Observe the Weekly UTL. _____________________________________________ What is fragile does not prefer disorder or random. It seeks stability and predictability. The fragile is damaged by infrequent events. In particular, when they become increasingly frequent. INcreasing Amplitudes within increasing Frequency, are a warning. Events Unknown, unseen, unaccounted... by HK_L61Updated 16
The "VXX"Since July, the VXX has reached the 200 ema (purple) 3 times. It has retraced the previous low each of these 3 times. The VXX retracing towards $23.43 would be a 61% retracement. We are also at a point of control on the volume profile. Shortby Redimere_91Published 112
VXX - Gap Fill @ the .382Indies need to fill those Gaps, we're going to see Calls begin to unwind quickly today after the FX accident, we've been waiting on for V.2 to begin - it has. Oops, Christine - ya dropped the Eggs. No matter, NYC will pick it up and run for the AM SESSION. We're down... waiting for Fills. ___________________________________________________________________________ Sh_t Mixed soon enough. by HK_L61Published 448
VXX - 1 HourWaiting patiently for the SetUp in VX Complex. 20.35 is the Over. SOH until EU Session Closes - EU Bid NQ during Globex. by HK_L61Updated 121211